We’ve just won surely we’re not in a relegation battle.
PL Relegation Battle 21/22
- Thread starter SilentWitness
- Start date
Who?There's been a month and a bit since that image in the OP and there's only one team that's still on the exact same points...
Could we see a new record low points tally to earn survival in the Premier League era?
Apparently West Brom hold that record, staying up with 34 in 04/05.
At current rate the teams are on for:
Norwich 28
---------------------------------
Newcastle 27
Watford 27
Burnley 25
I know the fight for survival often sees form pick up but that's some desperate stuff so far. Then there's Everton with 1 win in their last 14 attempts trying to crash the party.
Edit: How Sporting Index (spread betting firm) see it. It's their business to try and be right and they'll actually be looking at the fixture list plus many other factors which I wasn't just above.
Apparently West Brom hold that record, staying up with 34 in 04/05.
At current rate the teams are on for:
Norwich 28
---------------------------------
Newcastle 27
Watford 27
Burnley 25
I know the fight for survival often sees form pick up but that's some desperate stuff so far. Then there's Everton with 1 win in their last 14 attempts trying to crash the party.
Edit: How Sporting Index (spread betting firm) see it. It's their business to try and be right and they'll actually be looking at the fixture list plus many other factors which I wasn't just above.
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Has to be between Burnley and Newcastle for the 3rd relegation spot, and will be determined by Newcastle's transfer business. Don't expect Norwich or Watford to survive. I'd love it if Everton go down, but don't see that happening
Everton, that poster supports them.
Really exciting relegation battle this year.
Norwich - I thought they were dead in the water but they've dragged themselves back on the fight
Watford - Look likely to go down but will probably change manager (yet again)
Newcastle - Look poor but got a massive win yesterday and it depends if they make another couple of good signings
Burnley - You know they will scrap for their lives. Good point against Arsenal and some big games coming up....... Need to find a goalscorer and fast
Everton - In free fall, on paper they should have too much but they look dire at the moment
Leeds - Should be ok but not in the clear
Brentford - Currently in the clear but have played the most games and their recent form isn't great. At the end of Feb they play Newcastle, Norwich and Burnley back to back. 2 weeks that could decide their season.
Norwich - I thought they were dead in the water but they've dragged themselves back on the fight
Watford - Look likely to go down but will probably change manager (yet again)
Newcastle - Look poor but got a massive win yesterday and it depends if they make another couple of good signings
Burnley - You know they will scrap for their lives. Good point against Arsenal and some big games coming up....... Need to find a goalscorer and fast
Everton - In free fall, on paper they should have too much but they look dire at the moment
Leeds - Should be ok but not in the clear
Brentford - Currently in the clear but have played the most games and their recent form isn't great. At the end of Feb they play Newcastle, Norwich and Burnley back to back. 2 weeks that could decide their season.
This is the worst group of bottom 7-8 in a while. 30-32 points might save your from relegation this year.
Norwich, Watford, Newcastle, Burnley, Everton are all absolutely terrible. Leeds have a very short squad and Brentford don't really have a ton of quality either.
Norwich, Watford, Newcastle, Burnley, Everton are all absolutely terrible. Leeds have a very short squad and Brentford don't really have a ton of quality either.
Yeah was thinking the same. Even the above would be mean 31 is enough for Newcastle to stay up if I'm understanding that correctly.Could we see a new record low points tally to earn survival in the Premier League era?
Apparently West Brom hold that record, staying up with 34 in 04/05.
At current rate the teams are on for:
Norwich 28
---------------------------------
Newcastle 27
Watford 27
Burnley 25
I know the fight for survival often sees form pick up but that's some desperate stuff so far. Then there's Everton with 1 win in their last 14 attempts trying to crash the party.
Edit: How Sporting Index (spread betting firm) see it. It's their business to try and be right and they'll actually be looking at the fixture list plus many other factors which I wasn't just above.
Yes, 31 could be enough by their reckoning.
How that works is that those are "buy" and "sell" prices. So you can buy Burnley at 32 and sell at 30.5. Buying Burnley at 32 means you think they'll get more than 32. Selling them at 30.5 means you think that they'll get less than 30.5.
You'd pick a stake, say £50 per point and then wait to end of the season to see what happens. If you bought them and they get 35 then that's 3 points more than the buy price so you'd win 3x£50. If they got less than the 32 after buying them, let's say 29 you'd have been wrong by 3 points and owe them 3x£50.
If they were to set the spread at an obviously bad place for any team then people would pounce on it and it would potentially cost them a lot of money so they need be fairly accurate and they're obviously pretty good at what they do. That means that the range of 30.5-32 points is essentially what is predicted for Burnley to finish on. If the prediction was right and Burnley got 31 then 31 with a better GD would indeed be enough for Newcastle.
Edit to add: That's how UK spread betting works and those prices came from the UK. The US version is a bit different.
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Got it. I think they may have factored in Newcastle buying a few players between now and end of January to be able to get 19 points from 17 remaining games though even that does not sound that high.
Burnley have just zero quality though. It is pretty surprising the same group has been able to keep them up for the last few years but with Wood gone, replacement looking unlikely, this will probably be the year to go down for them. And when they do, there are maybe 3-4 players in their squad that will be picked up by PL teams (Tarkowski, Cornet, Pope, maybe McNeil).
If Pope plays like he did yesterday then I'd never rule Burnley out of closing up some 1-0s and suddenly getting to 20 points pretty quickly.
No idea who they've got in next few weeks bar Watford at home and that is huge for both. Think Burnley also got Everton at home to play so even 4 points from those two and they're right back in the mix.
Newcastle are slowing getting together now so have to expect them to have a good run now so can certainly see a few of the teams above slowly being drawn although my hunch is Leeds and Brentford will be o.k, Everton the ones in big danger.
No idea who they've got in next few weeks bar Watford at home and that is huge for both. Think Burnley also got Everton at home to play so even 4 points from those two and they're right back in the mix.
Newcastle are slowing getting together now so have to expect them to have a good run now so can certainly see a few of the teams above slowly being drawn although my hunch is Leeds and Brentford will be o.k, Everton the ones in big danger.
Burnley and Watford got wins at long last.
Just seen the midweek games for some of the re-arranged games that were lost over xmas period....
Liverpool v Leeds
Watford v Palace
Burnley v Spurs
Can see Leeds getting smashed by 4 or 5 given the effort they put in yesterday and Phillips is huge miss in this type of fixture. They're bang in relegation battle now.
Can certainly see Watford eeking out another 1-0 v Palace. Would get them up to 21 points so would draw pretty much all of the bottom half into the battle given likes of us and Leicester only on 27 points.
Think Burnley can get something off Spurs aswell so they're starting to string together a decent run and still have a few games in hand.
Just seen the midweek games for some of the re-arranged games that were lost over xmas period....
Liverpool v Leeds
Watford v Palace
Burnley v Spurs
Can see Leeds getting smashed by 4 or 5 given the effort they put in yesterday and Phillips is huge miss in this type of fixture. They're bang in relegation battle now.
Can certainly see Watford eeking out another 1-0 v Palace. Would get them up to 21 points so would draw pretty much all of the bottom half into the battle given likes of us and Leicester only on 27 points.
Think Burnley can get something off Spurs aswell so they're starting to string together a decent run and still have a few games in hand.
At half way point , its always difficult to say who is bad or worse. At these times, goal difference is a great pointer to how teams are going.
Going by the Goal difference :
Norwich -39
Leeds -21
Watford -19
Newcastle -19
Brentford -15
Everton -12
Burnley -9
I want to see if there is a pathway out of trouble.
Norwich. Relegation. Even if they have started playing now, gap to bridge to others is huge in terms of performance.
Leeds. More Phillip is out, more they will suffer. The rot doesn't seems to stop. I don't see any upside for them unless they plug the holes in defense.
Burnley - Only 2 wins in 22 games but their goal difference is better than every other relegation candidate. If Weghorst is fit with Cornet , I do see them getting their wins to get out of trouble.
Watford - Their problem was defense. They never kept a cleansheet in 4 or 5 of their previous manager. In 4 games under Hodgson, they kept 2 cleansheets already. Sarr is back. I can see a pathway for them out of trouble even now
Newcastle - Clear winner of transfer window. But Trippier injury is serious. Saint Maximin will be out of 2-3 weeks. Inspite of that, they have enough momentum to be not in 3 worst sides.
Everton - Their form is atrocious. Dele will be a bad player in bad side. DVB - dont see making the difference. I really dont see any upside to them tbh...unless Lampard fundamentally changes the way they play. If 2 other relegation team can climb out and put Everton into the relegation zone, I cant see them climbing out of it
Brentford - Their form of late is bad. But still have points on board.Looking at fixture list, they only have to face 4 teams in top half (Spurs WestHam United Chelsea). IMO, if they put a run to gether they can get out without getting dragged in.
In summary, where we stand today, I see
Norwich, Leeds getting relegated. 3rd relegation spot between Watford/Burnley/Everton whoever doesn't do enough to get out of the trouble
Going by the Goal difference :
Norwich -39
Leeds -21
Watford -19
Newcastle -19
Brentford -15
Everton -12
Burnley -9
I want to see if there is a pathway out of trouble.
Norwich. Relegation. Even if they have started playing now, gap to bridge to others is huge in terms of performance.
Leeds. More Phillip is out, more they will suffer. The rot doesn't seems to stop. I don't see any upside for them unless they plug the holes in defense.
Burnley - Only 2 wins in 22 games but their goal difference is better than every other relegation candidate. If Weghorst is fit with Cornet , I do see them getting their wins to get out of trouble.
Watford - Their problem was defense. They never kept a cleansheet in 4 or 5 of their previous manager. In 4 games under Hodgson, they kept 2 cleansheets already. Sarr is back. I can see a pathway for them out of trouble even now
Newcastle - Clear winner of transfer window. But Trippier injury is serious. Saint Maximin will be out of 2-3 weeks. Inspite of that, they have enough momentum to be not in 3 worst sides.
Everton - Their form is atrocious. Dele will be a bad player in bad side. DVB - dont see making the difference. I really dont see any upside to them tbh...unless Lampard fundamentally changes the way they play. If 2 other relegation team can climb out and put Everton into the relegation zone, I cant see them climbing out of it
Brentford - Their form of late is bad. But still have points on board.Looking at fixture list, they only have to face 4 teams in top half (Spurs WestHam United Chelsea). IMO, if they put a run to gether they can get out without getting dragged in.
In summary, where we stand today, I see
Norwich, Leeds getting relegated. 3rd relegation spot between Watford/Burnley/Everton whoever doesn't do enough to get out of the trouble
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Updated odds as @Chipper posted upthread:
It would be hilarious to see Newcastle go down but mostly I want to see the back of Burnley in the PL.
It would be hilarious to see Newcastle go down but mostly I want to see the back of Burnley in the PL.
Norwich and Watford are down... Can see Burnley and Newcastle doing enough to drag themselves to safety, so it's one of Leeds or Brentford to join them (think Everton are "too good to go down")
I think it'll be Brentford.
I think it'll be Brentford.
Everton are as good as gone
Points gained by those 10 clubs in the OP since this thread was made:
Crystal Palace - 13 points in 11 games (1.18 ppg)
Brentford - 10 points in 13 games (0.77 ppg)
Brighton and Hove Albion - 13 points in 12 games (1.08 ppg)
Everton - 3 points in 9 games (0.33 ppg)
Southampton - 18 points in 12 games (1.5 ppg)
Leeds United - 10 points in 12 games (0.83 ppg)
Watford - 9 points in 13 games (0.69 ppg)
Burnley - 10 points in 12 games (0.83 ppg)
Newcastle United - 21 points in 11 games (1.91 ppg)
Norwich City - 7 points in 12 games (0.58 ppg)
and updated bottom half table in spoilers
Everton are in serious danger.
Crystal Palace - 13 points in 11 games (1.18 ppg)
Brentford - 10 points in 13 games (0.77 ppg)
Brighton and Hove Albion - 13 points in 12 games (1.08 ppg)
Everton - 3 points in 9 games (0.33 ppg)
Southampton - 18 points in 12 games (1.5 ppg)
Leeds United - 10 points in 12 games (0.83 ppg)
Watford - 9 points in 13 games (0.69 ppg)
Burnley - 10 points in 12 games (0.83 ppg)
Newcastle United - 21 points in 11 games (1.91 ppg)
Norwich City - 7 points in 12 games (0.58 ppg)
and updated bottom half table in spoilers
Everton are in serious danger.
Worst team in the league. 
I was going to say you'd still beat Norwich....but errr you've already played them twice and lost away two months ago. And Watford stuck 5 past you at Goodison.Worst team in the league.
So yeah pretty much.
can see at least 3 points they'll get
Today was one of the games where Everton really needed at least a point. They are in free fall and have a super tough run incoming.
Wow, is it too good to be true that Everton go down? That would be remarkable.
Lowest points tally for 17th or to mathematically stay up? If the latter, 31 would have been enough in 09/10 due to Hull and Burnley finishing on 30 points in 18th and 19th.Could we see a new record low points tally to earn survival in the Premier League era?
Apparently West Brom hold that record, staying up with 34 in 04/05.
At current rate the teams are on for:
Norwich 28
---------------------------------
Newcastle 27
Watford 27
Burnley 25
I know the fight for survival often sees form pick up but that's some desperate stuff so far. Then there's Everton with 1 win in their last 14 attempts trying to crash the party.
Edit: How Sporting Index (spread betting firm) see it. It's their business to try and be right and they'll actually be looking at the fixture list plus many other factors which I wasn't just above.
3 points since the middle of December? Jesus wept.
And I thought Leeds and Brentford were in freefall.
For the 17th place finisher is what I meant at the time.
This isn't taking fixtures into account, or teams finding form out of desperation to stay up, just current points per game, I think it looks like this now:
Leeds 34
Everton 32
-------------------
Watford 29
Burnley 28
Norwich 22
Also doesn't take into account Everton's disastrous form, they'll be lucky to get 32 at this rate.
The mathematical one is a bit of a guessing game for me. West Ham were 17th in that 09/10 season so you could say that 31 would have been enough in theory. The problem I'd have with that is that West Ham won 7 points in the games against Hull and Burnley so if you say 31 would have been enough it could only have been if the results against those 2 sides were the same too. They mightn't have been in this fictional world where West Ham only got 31.
Everton and Norwich going down would be the dream. The blue Scousers always give us a game and it would instantly mean 12 guaranteed points for Liverpool next season are wiped out.