Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season

Red00012

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The top 2 countries based on coefficient points this season will get an extra CL spot next season. England are currently third behind Germany and Italy . Italy are looking good for one spot and the other is up for grabs based on how the remaining teams do in Europe this season.
This is the updated coefficients after last night . Link attached on possible outcomes.

1. Italy, 19.428
2. Germany 17.928
3. England 17.375

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/sto...ace-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

Chances are very slim the 5th place goes to England
.
Villa - 4 games left, sitting on 66 points, remaining games:
West Ham A draw
Wolves H won
City A lost
Brentford H draw
Arsenal A won
Bournemouth H won
Chelsea H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Crystal Palace A

Spurs - 6 games left, sitting on 60 points, remaining games:
Fulham A - Lost
Luton H- Won
West Ham A draw
Forest H won
Newcastle A lost
Arsenal H
Chelsea A
Liverpool A
City H
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A


United - 5 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:

Brentford A draw
Chelsea A lost
Liverpool H draw
Bournemouth A draw
Sheff Utd H won
Burnley H
Crystal Palace A
Arsenal H
Newcastle H
Brighton A
 
Last edited:

Chumpsbechumps

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Its actually making Europe interesting in a different way as I have been keeping an eye on this.

I get United really shouldnt be scraping the barrell with this extra spot thing but we are where we are.

I think its not really gonna make much of a difference. I feel we are too far behind and even if Villa/spurs collapse in form, we just wont be able to effectively make up 9 points net gain on them.
 

Red00012

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Its actually making Europe interesting in a different way as I have been keeping an eye on this.

I get United really shouldnt be scraping the barrell with this extra spot thing but we are where we are.

I think its not really gonna make much of a difference. I feel we are too far behind and even if Villa/spurs collapse in form, we just wont be able to effectively make up 9 points net gain on them.
I agree I think Spurs would have to do a Spurs which they are capable of but it would also mean we would have to have a decent finish to the season.
 

BenitoSTARR

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Thanks @Red00012 I couldn’t figure out the chances of this (I naively thought it was a bit of a given the PL might get it)
 

Chumpsbechumps

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I agree I think Spurs would have to do a Spurs which they are capable of but it would also mean we would have to have a decent finish to the season.
Agent Dodgy lasagne chef sent to white heart lane for rest of season ….

I can’t even see spurs spursing this up.

But if they did, the headline would write itself

“Lads it’s spurs”

Manchester United pipped Tottenham Hotspur on the final day of the season in remarkable fashion. All Tottenham had to do was not lose by a heavy scoreline to the leagues bottom team and they were guaranteed 5th spot. But things are never straight forward for spurs……
 

Sylar

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Would be quite something if Villa do well (eg get to the final), helping to ensure 5th spot is available, and as a result their league form suffers and they drop to 6th.
 

tomaldinho1

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Does this mean we actually want City and Arsenal to get easy draws and go far in the CL? I'd rather not be in the CL than either of them win it to be honest.
 

Chumpsbechumps

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Does this mean we actually want City and Arsenal to get easy draws and go far in the CL? I'd rather not be in the CL than either of them win it to be honest.
technically yes and Pool in europa.

But that’s only if you think 5th is even achievable
 

Utd heap

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technically yes and Pool in europa.

But that’s only if you think 5th is even achievable
It's not weighted so Villa/West Ham going deep is just as useful as Arsenal or City.

So you can easy have Arsenal out next round, City in the semi - with Villa winning it and West Ham making a semi final being enough etc.

Basically loads of scenarios.
 

Leftback99

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Pretty irrelevant to us. Should be in the Football Forum.
 

doomy20

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If Westham do not knock out Freiburg it’s basically over tonight
 

Chumpsbechumps

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It's not weighted so Villa/West Ham going deep is just as useful as Arsenal or City.

So you can easy have Arsenal out next round, City in the semi - with Villa winning it and West Ham making a semi final being enough etc.

Basically loads of scenarios.
Well yes and no. We basically need all the english teams to go as far as possible once German/Spanish and Italian ones are still in the cups. England is a fair bit behind Italy (1.571 points). If its taken that you get 1/8 of the value of a point added to englands current score of 15, english teams need to wrack up 0.125 x 12.5 just to catch Italy. So England needs 12.5 points before it even matches Italy and Italy still have a few clubs going, 4, all that looks good bets to go to at least the next round.

Germany have a 7.5 point advantage that has to be closed. If freiburg beat west ham, thats a big shift for that dynamic as Brighton will be going out to Roma. Villa and Ajax is no given either, so thats 3 english teams that could realistically go out which would mean we really do need City and Liverpool to win alot of games.

Ideally, all English clubs maybe get to semis, even the final but the ones we want to lose, lose. The alternative is that Italian/Spanish/German clubs keep knocking each other out or one or two of those countries has all its teams knocked out in the next round.
 

Utd heap

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Well yes and no. We basically need all the english teams to go as far as possible once German/Spanish and Italian ones are still in the cups. England is a fair bit behind Italy (1.571 points). If its taken that you get 1/8 of the value of a point added to englands current score of 15, english teams need to wrack up 0.125 x 12.5 just to catch Italy. So England needs 12.5 points before it even matches Italy and Italy still have a few clubs going, 4, all that looks good bets to go to at least the next round.

Germany have a 7.5 point advantage that has to be closed. If freiburg beat west ham, thats a big shift for that dynamic as Brighton will be going out to Roma. Villa and Ajax is no given either, so thats 3 english teams that could realistically go out which would mean we really do need City and Liverpool to win alot of games.

Ideally, all English clubs maybe get to semis, even the final but the ones we want to lose, lose. The alternative is that Italian/Spanish/German clubs keep knocking each other out or one or two of those countries has all its teams knocked out in the next round.
Italy will piss it. England will pip the Germans assuming West Ham and Villa go through - which they should.
 

Chumpsbechumps

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Italy will piss it. England will pip the Germans assuming West Ham and Villa go through - which they should.
Unless English teams are drawn against each other in Europa and CL. You could see Arsenal v City and Liverpool v Villa.
 

Woziak

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Unless English teams are drawn against each other in Europa and CL. You could see Arsenal v City and Liverpool v Villa.
Villa will know that they need to win to help their own cause for next season, I see shock Ajax win hope not bit much tougher game than most think?
 

Red Star One

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Yeah I think West Ham - Freiburg tie might be quite crucial for England to get the second place, if Moyes fails today I see it difficult.
Catching up on Italy seems very unlikely for me. All four Italian clubs should go through tonight.
 

SER19

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United arent getting top 5. Simply cant get the consistency and have left too much to do.
 

PoTMS

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United arent getting top 5. Simply cant get the consistency and have left too much to do.
Agreed but at the very least, it keeps the prospect of Conference League further away from us.
 

Red00012

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United arent getting top 5. Simply cant get the consistency and have left too much to do.
Villa winning tonight would help things. They don’t have the squad to do a Thursday / Sunday
 

SER19

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Villa winning tonight would help things. They don’t have the squad to do a Thursday / Sunday
I cant see us getting more than 21 pts from 30 available. That would be overachieving and leave us on 68. Villa are on 55. They'd only need 13 points from 30 to finish above us. Spurs would need 15 from 33. We've dropped too many points. It's not happening I'm afraid. Though id be delighted to be proven wrong.
 

Mike Smalling

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Looking pretty good so far with the West Ham win and Villa leading. Liverpool win was a given, and Brighton need a miracle.
 
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I cant see us getting more than 21 pts from 30 available. That would be overachieving and leave us on 68. Villa are on 55. They'd only need 13 points from 30 to finish above us. Spurs would need 15 from 33. We've dropped too many points. It's not happening I'm afraid. Though id be delighted to be proven wrong.
I kind of agree.
The numbers don’t look good.

Occasionally though, a team loses an 8-10 point lead in 3-4 games.

Like we did in that run-in in 2012.
 

Woziak

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Villa winning tonight would help things. They don’t have the squad to do a Thursday / Sunday
They only need 14/15 points and Spurs need 16/17 United Max this season is 66/67 points and this I highly doubt as it involves 6/7 wins from last 10 games, United blew it this season with results against Bouremouth(H), Palace(H), Fulham(H) and Forrest(A).

in a terrible season we should have at least 5 or 6 points from those games, an average season 8 to 9 and most seasons 10-12, the fact we didn’t get 1 suggests we don’t deserve CL as we’ve seen what ETH man United is like in the competition.

He really doesn’t deserve to stay in the job and to think he will get results against Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool at Old Trafford or Chelsea and Brighton away is simply delusional.
 

Red00012

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They only need 14/15 points and Spurs need 16/17 United Max this season is 66/67 points and this I highly doubt as it involves 6/7 wins from last 10 games, United blew it this season with results against Bouremouth(H), Palace(H), Fulham(H) and Forrest(A).

in a terrible season we should have at least 5 or 6 points from those games, an average season 8 to 9 and most seasons 10-12, the fact we didn’t get 1 suggests we don’t deserve CL as we’ve seen what ETH man United is like in the competition.

He really doesn’t deserve to stay in the job and to think he will get results against Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool at Old Trafford or Chelsea and Brighton away is simply delusional.
Delusional to get points away at Chelsea and Brighton? I think you’re the one a little delusional. An ETH outer would wish that though I guess .
 

SER19

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I kind of agree.
The numbers don’t look good.

Occasionally though, a team loses an 8-10 point lead in 3-4 games.

Like we did in that run-in in 2012.
Spurs have some tough games, but theyre not showing signs of wobbling. Even if they do, I cant see us doing our bit
 

doomy20

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Looking pretty good so far with the West Ham win and Villa leading. Liverpool win was a given, and Brighton need a miracle.
Brighton win would still give crucial 2 points! Just not the +1 for progressing. All in all right now it would be best case
 

Adz_99

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Villa still have to play Arsenal, Liverpool and City.

Theoretically they can be caught but out form has been horrendous for months so I dont see us randomly going on a 5 game winning streak now.
 

Woziak

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Delusional to get points away at Chelsea and Brighton? I think you’re the one a little delusional. An ETH outer would wish that though I guess .
ETH record against De Zerbie in PL
P3 W0 D0 L3 GS2 GC6 PTS 0
Now looks who is delusional ?
De Zerbie got Eric the Fraud number ?
 

Rightnr

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Delusional to get points away at Chelsea and Brighton? I think you’re the one a little delusional. An ETH outer would wish that though I guess .
You should tell your teacher about this inventive insult tomorrow.

All the kids at kindergarten will be impressed.
 

Red00012

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ETH record against De Zerbie in PL
P3 W0 D0 L3 GS2 GC6 PTS 0
Now looks who is delusional ?
De Zerbie got Eric the Fraud number ?
Instead of derailing this thread I suggest you go to the many threads about ETH I’m sure you’ve posted there before.
 

doomy20

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So after last night’s dream outcomes, 5th place will most likely be a CL quali this year. With the new exciting format coming up and all the money involved I hope the lads can find their nuts and grind out that fifth place. Would be horrible to be a spectator in the first new cl format season and fall more behind in terms of money. Arsenal etc earn big again this year, they‘ll be capable of another 200M in the summer
 

Mike Smalling

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Even if we don't make 5th spot, an additional CL place for England would also mean that we are almost guaranteed not to end up in the dreaded Conference League. That's worth something in itself.
 

Eddy_JukeZ

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Even if Spurs/Villa drop enough points, I don't see us going on a run of form to make up the gap.

But it is annoying that we have to rely on City, Liverpool and Arsenal doing well to potentially salvage our season.
 

Red00012

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Even if we don't make 5th spot, an additional CL place for England would also mean that we are almost guaranteed not to end up in the dreaded Conference League. That's worth something in itself.
If anything it makes Europa league easier to get into and more difficult to get into conference league !