Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season

[Mike Smalling]

If anything it makes Europa league easier to get into and more difficult to get into conference league !

Exactly my point.

If we finish 6th, we can only end up in the Conference League if England doesn't get the additional Champions League spot and the FA Cup isn't won by a team already qualified for Europe by their league finish (basically Liverpool or City). If we finish 7th, we get the Conference league if England gets the extra spot or the FA Cup is won by Liverpool or City, but not if both happens - then we would get Europa League.

Basically, this is the situation:

At least if I'm understanding it right. Happy to be corrected.

 

[Chumpsbechumps]

Last night was massive for England. Even Brighton getting the win helped. It does actually make even dead rubbers like that game against Roma still have some meaning (as Brighton could still make Europe next year; extra spot would help).

Teams getting 3rd in groups (to still remain in Europe) actually has more importance. If United and Newcastle had even finished third it would of been a relative formality that English teams would scoop the extra spot

 

[MegadrivePerson]

90% chance of it now.

English clubs closing in on fifth Champions League spot for next season | Champions League | The Guardian

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

Aston Villa are basically going all-in on two fronts to serve themselves. Imagine if we (the team with the smallest contribution to this season's coefficient) manage to "steal" 5th place from them.

 

[Red00012]

90% chance of it now.

English clubs closing in on fifth Champions League spot for next season | Champions League | The Guardian

I’m not sure it’s 90% after the draws made today. If 2 German clubs were to knock out both English clubs by beating them twice it would open it up again

 

[doomy20]

I’m not sure it’s 90% after the draws made today. If 2 German clubs were to knock out both English clubs by beating them twice it would open it up again

That’s true, the quarter finals will ultimately decide now.

 

[Sarni]

Just to compare.

Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham A
City A
Brentford H
Arsenal A
Bournemouth H
Chelsea H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Crystal Palace A

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham A
Luton H
West Ham A
Forest H
Newcastle A
City H
Arsenal H
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A
Chelsea A

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Burnley H
Crystal Palace A
Arsenal H
Brighton A
Sheffield Utd H

Villa's calendar is actually quite hard, I would not be surprised if they don't get more than 12-13 points. Ours is probably the easiest but we can't play well away from home and we struggle against any half decent team, so we are probably looking at 18-20 points max anyway.

I think we might just about scrape 5th and it will be considered a huge, major miracle and overachievement.

 

[Irwin99]

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham A
Luton H
West Ham A
Forest H
Newcastle A
City H
Arsenal H
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A
Chelsea A



Villa's calendar is actually quite hard, I would not be surprised if they don't get more than 12-13 points. Ours is probably the easiest but we can't play well away from home and we struggle against any half decent team, so we are probably looking at 18-20 points max anyway.

I think we might just about scrape 5th and it will be considered a huge, major miracle and overachievement.

Spurs have a horrendous run of fixtures towards the end (I include Chelsea because of the two sides hatred for each other and the fact that it's away and on the last game of the season). Fortunately for them i think they have enough to get either 4th or 5th.

My hope for United died after the Fulham game. You can lose against a top side like City fair enough, but you cant throw away three points against Fulham at home and expect to qualify for the champions league when you're already a good way off in the table. I think it's too much to do now

 

[Teja]

Needing other English clubs to do well is a sickner !

It actually makes for quite interesting dynamics. The PL is directly incentivized now to do something about things like winter breaks, fixture congestion and such. Imagine Spain gets a 2 week break and English clubs only have one.

 

[Partridge]

I kind of agree.
The numbers don’t look good.

Occasionally though, a team loses an 8-10 point lead in 3-4 games.

Like we did in that run-in in 2012.

And also Newcastle, when Keegan had that massive meltdown. They folded quickly. The big Geordie puffs.

 

[leontas]

So both Spurs and Villa might get CL football next season.

 

[lex talionis]

Spurs have a horrendous run of fixtures towards the end (I include Chelsea because of the two sides hatred for each other and the fact that it's away and on the last game of the season). Fortunately for them i think they have enough to get either 4th or 5th.

My hope for United died after the Fulham game. You can lose against a top side like City fair enough, but you cant throw away three points against Fulham at home and expect to qualify for the champions league when you're already a good way off in the table. I think it's too much to do now

The Fulham disgrace did us in, but not getting the stonewall pk when Garnacho was wrestled to the ground meant we dropped points we needed, and which allowed Spurs to pick up.

I’m afraid the cattle prod is indeed in the orifice.

 

[Plant0x84]

Just to compare.

My predictions.
Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham D 56pts
City L 56pts
Brentford W 59pts
Arsenal L 59pts
Bournemouth W 62pts
Chelsea D 63pts
Brighton D 64pts
Liverpool L 64pts
Crystal Palace W 67pts

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham W 56pts
Luton W 59pts
West Ham W 62pts
Forest W 65pts
Newcastle D 66pts
City L 66pts
Arsenal L 66pts
Liverpool L 66pts
Burnley W 69pts
Sheffield Utd W 72pts
Chelsea W 75pts

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford W 50pts
Chelsea W 53pts
Liverpool D 54pts
Bournemouth W 57pts
Newcastle D 58pts
Burnley W 61pts
Crystal Palace W 64pts
Arsenal D 65pts
Brighton 66pts
Sheffield Utd W 69pts

So Spurs 4th, United 5th and Villa 6th. We scrape into CL by 2pts.

 

[Woziak]

Instead of derailing this thread I suggest you go to the many threads about ETH I’m sure you’ve posted there before.

Managers lost 16 games all season and still he’s defended and you wonder why the club has fallen so far, standards my friend standards, if and it’s very big if ETH hit CL football I would give him another chance despite him probably losing 19/20 in a single season, however we both know when you taste that defeat so often you really don’t deserve much in elite football now do you ?

 

[Leftback99]

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We'll be nowhere near based on betting markets and I'd agree.

 

[Woziak]

My predictions.
Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham D 56pts
City L 56pts
Brentford W 59pts
Arsenal L 59pts
Bournemouth W 62pts
Chelsea D 63pts
Brighton D 64pts
Liverpool L 64pts
Crystal Palace W 67pts

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham W 56pts
Luton W 59pts
West Ham W 62pts
Forest W 65pts
Newcastle D 66pts
City L 66pts
Arsenal L 66pts
Liverpool L 66pts
Burnley W 69pts
Sheffield Utd W 72pts
Chelsea W 75pts

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford W 50pts
Chelsea W 53pts
Liverpool D 54pts
Bournemouth W 57pts
Newcastle D 58pts
Burnley W 61pts
Crystal Palace W 64pts
Arsenal D 65pts
Brighton 66pts
Sheffield Utd W 69pts

So Spurs 4th, United 5th and Villa 6th. We scrape into CL by 2pts.

Your assuming United won’t lose another game in the PL this season and draw 4 in the last 10, we’ve only drawn 2 in 28 so far, I hope your right but I think our best form is 6 wins 1 draw 3 defeats or 19 points or 66 Villa will get at least 69 they have 55 already.!

Playing in Europa next season is not the end of the world for our current inconsistent squad and the good news is for their abstract failure they will have their own salary reduced by 20/25% to coincide with our European revenue being reduced.

 

[Plant0x84]

Your assuming United won’t lose another game in the PL this season and draw 4 in the last 10, we’ve only drawn 2 in 28 so far, I hope your right but I think our best form is 6 wins 1 draw 3 defeats or 19 points or 66 Villa will get at least 69 they have 55 already.!

Playing in Europa next season is not the end of the world for our current inconsistent squad and the good news is for their abstract failure they will have their own salary reduced by 20/25% to coincide with our European revenue being reduced.

I have a feeling we will win one and lose one of our 2 games vs Liverpool, but I’m not sure if we win the cup game or the league game so I hedged my bets with a draw. It’s also very possible we lose to Arsenal and I guess your other loss is Brighton?
I agree entirely with your 2nd paragraph. EL is about our level currently. Would be one to try and win!

 

[Red00012]

Just to compare.

Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham A
City A
Brentford H
Arsenal A
Bournemouth H
Chelsea H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Crystal Palace A

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham A
Luton H
West Ham A
Forest H
Newcastle A
City H
Arsenal H
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A
Chelsea A

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Burnley H
Crystal Palace A
Arsenal H
Brighton A
Sheffield Utd H

Villa's calendar is actually quite hard, I would not be surprised if they don't get more than 12-13 points. Ours is probably the easiest but we can't play well away from home and we struggle against any half decent team, so we are probably looking at 18-20 points max anyway.

I think we might just about scrape 5th and it will be considered a huge, major miracle and overachievement.

I’ll add these fixtures to the OP if that’s ok

 

[Sarni]

I’ll add these fixtures to the OP if that’s ok

Go ahead

 

[Todd]

So, our outside shot of getting into the CL is getting 5th, which probably hinges on Arsenal doing Bayern, right?

 

[Alex99]

So, our outside shot of getting into the CL is getting 5th, which probably hinges on Arsenal doing Bayern, right?

Liverpool, West Ham and Villa can still get coefficient points.

 

[GL21]

this is a bad thread for us getting our hopes up and establishing trust with this group. I'm trying not to get invested but I can't help it either

 

[Judas]

I don't see us doing it, about a month ago I was hopeful we'd drag our limp lifeless body over the line for 5th, but we're just so average. I'd think we'd surely need a bit more consistency, but the battle for 4th is usually pretty up and down anyway, now a battle for 5th the standard is even lower.

 

[croadyman]

They only need 14/15 points and Spurs need 16/17 United Max this season is 66/67 points and this I highly doubt as it involves 6/7 wins from last 10 games, United blew it this season with results against Bouremouth(H), Palace(H), Fulham(H) and Forrest(A).

in a terrible season we should have at least 5 or 6 points from those games, an average season 8 to 9 and most seasons 10-12, the fact we didn’t get 1 suggests we don’t deserve CL as we’ve seen what ETH man United is like in the competition.

He really doesn’t deserve to stay in the job and to think he will get results against Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool at Old Trafford or Chelsea and Brighton away is simply delusional.

Yeah looking at other teams performance I think you could also throw Brighton (H) in there as well

 

[Dex_Utd]

The top 2 countries based on coefficient points this season will get an extra CL spot next season. England are currently third behind Germany and Italy . Italy are looking good for one spot and the other is up for grabs based on how the remaining teams do in Europe this season.
This is the updated coefficients after last night . Link attached on possible outcomes.

1. Italy, 17.714
2. Germany, 16.357
3. England, 16.250
4. France, 14.750

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/sto...ace-five-places-next-seasons-champions-league

It’s pretty much guaranteed a top 5 finish in the PL will secure Champions League next season after last nights results.

Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham A
Wolves H
City A
Brentford H
Arsenal A
Bournemouth H
Chelsea H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Crystal Palace A

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham A
Luton H
West Ham A
Forest H
Newcastle A
City H
Arsenal H
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A
Chelsea A

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Burnley H
Crystal Palace A
Arsenal H
Brighton A
Sheffield Utd H

It was only showing 9 games for Villa. Their home game against Wolves (which should be 2nd in the list) was missing. I have added it to the list above now.

 

[Ali Dia]

We are screwed. The players have been absolutely all over the shop this season.

Plusses : INEOS, Onana looks good. Rasmus too. We should have a lot of players back next season and hopefully plenty of fresh blood pushing hard to become regulars and make their names.

 

[TheRedHearted]

Exactly my point.

If we finish 6th, we can only end up in the Conference League if England doesn't get the additional Champions League spot and the FA Cup isn't won by a team already qualified for Europe by their league finish (basically Liverpool or City). If we finish 7th, we get the Conference league if England gets the extra spot or the FA Cup is won by Liverpool or City, but not if both happens - then we would get Europa League.

Basically, this is the situation:

At least if I'm understanding it right. Happy to be corrected.

What’s the possibility of us getting 5th?

 

[prateik]

Nah.. too far with too few games to go.
We cant just rely on Villa or Spurs having a wobble anymore.. It'll require us to go on a fantastic, almost title challenging run, from here on.. and we are shit. we have consistently been shit all season. there is absolutely nothing to suggest we are even capable of anything close to that.

 

[mu4c_20le]

What’s the possibility of us getting 5th?

Bookies have us at +450

 

[ayushreddevil9]

Nah.. too far with too few games to go.
We cant just rely on Villa or Spurs having a wobble anymore.. It'll require us to go on a fantastic, almost title challenging run, from here on.. and we are shit. we have consistently been shit all season. there is absolutely nothing to suggest we are even capable of anything close to that.

When we actually started doing well, the team decided that putting in a shift against fulham was beneath them.

That loss will hurt us i am sure of it.

 

[Mike Smalling]

What’s the possibility of us getting 5th?

Well it’s very small but not zero, so made sense to include it.

 

[Offside]

There’s a decent chance we get 5th. The other two teams aren’t all that and will drop plenty of points. If we get players back there’s the potential for another little run. Then if we’re only a few points off towards the very end we may sneak it. Remember a similar scenario a few years ago hunting down Leicester.

 

[Pintu]

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We'll be nowhere near based on betting markets and I'd agree.

This doesn’t take into account Villa’s ability to bottle it completely. Emery is a serial bottler when it comes to league football. And they have a few tough games coming their way. (+ Thursdays..) and Spurs are Spurs.

I reckon we will beat either Villa or Spurs to fifth.

 

[Pintu]

I’m not sure it’s 90% after the draws made today. If 2 German clubs were to knock out both English clubs by beating them twice it would open it up again

It’s not… Opta has it at 71%. But still very good odds.

Italy depends heavily on Fiorentina, Germany needs all 3 clubs to perform… England has more options, but relies a bit more on Villa and Liverpool.

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[Leftback99]

This doesn’t take into account Villa’s ability to bottle it completely. Emery is a serial bottler when it comes to league football. And they have a few tough games coming their way. (+ Thursdays..) and Spurs are Spurs.

I reckon we will beat either Villa or Spurs to fifth.

Regardless of what Spurs and Villa do, what are you seeing to make you think we're going to hit at least title winning level form over the next 10 games?

 

[Pintu]

Regardless of what Spurs and Villa do, what are you seeing to make you think we're going to hit at least title winning level form over the next 10 games?

Our football is shit, I agree with that…. But we can have faith. We’ve got some quality individual players, capable of winning us enough games..

 

[mav_9me]

Just to compare.

Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham A
City A
Brentford H
Arsenal A
Bournemouth H
Chelsea H
Brighton A
Liverpool H
Crystal Palace A

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham A
Luton H
West Ham A
Forest H
Newcastle A
City H
Arsenal H
Liverpool A
Burnley H
Sheffield Utd A
Chelsea A

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Liverpool H
Bournemouth A
Newcastle H
Burnley H
Crystal Palace A
Arsenal H
Brighton A
Sheffield Utd H

Villa's calendar is actually quite hard, I would not be surprised if they don't get more than 12-13 points. Ours is probably the easiest but we can't play well away from home and we struggle against any half decent team, so we are probably looking at 18-20 points max anyway.

I think we might just about scrape 5th and it will be considered a huge, major miracle and overachievement.

Rightly so. We've been so poor for so much of the season, that would be an unbelievable overachievement.

I just can't see it happening.

 

[mav_9me]

It actually makes for quite interesting dynamics. The PL is directly incentivized now to do something about things like winter breaks, fixture congestion and such. Imagine Spain gets a 2 week break and English clubs only have one.

Interesting point.

 

[AbusementPark]

I can’t see us making up the gap to 5th place, form and performances haven’t been consistent enough to warrant sneaking in. Europa league is our level but would take a Champions league spot and then dropping into Europa league just to get the revenue from both competitions.

 

[Red00012]

It was only showing 9 games for Villa. Their home game against Wolves (which should be 2nd in the list) was missing. I have added it to the list above now.

Cheers , I copied and pasted it that a user posted I might have not copied it properly.