Spurs maybe clicking into spurs gear here , they are trying desperately hard to make the top 5 an actual race …
Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season
- Thread starter Red00012
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They can afford to drop points because we simply aren't consistent enough to go on a run.
They need to be at least 7 points ahead of us by the time there are 6 games to play. Check out their run in
Lads...
That’s correct if England finished in the top 2 coefficient positions, then 5 English PL teams would all qualify, if an EPL team wins the CL and finishes outside first 5 then as CL holders they would qualify for the next season. And if a Team like West Ham was to win the Europa League and finish outside the top 5 they would also qualify for the CL so 7 teams from any of the top 4 federations; Spain, Italy, Germany or England in theory could have seven teams that qualify for a 36 team CL, plus if this happens then automatically teams finishing 6th, 7th or Fa cup would qualify For Europa and a team finishing 8th or league cup winner would qualify for Europa Conference League so in theory half the bloody league could qualify for Europe!
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsl...champions-league-post-2024-everything-you-ne/
I’ve included this as a link, I went through this about 6 months ago but I’m pretty sure of you guys look through it, everything is explained in the normal complicated UEFA way.
Looking more likely. Very tough fixture list ahead though. United will have to get some extremely good results to get 5th
Forget that United need 7 wins 2 draws 1 defeat that’s 23 points so we finish on 70 to have any chance of qualifying, Spurs and Villa still have 4 or 5 games that they should both win easily. The best thing right now is that teams like Bournem, Fulham, Wolves, Chelsea, Newcastle, Brighton and West Ham have all worked out that 6th place is definitely still available but 7th and 8th almost certainly will get you European Football and even the Europa League next season has 8 League games, so two extra European games and probably another £30m in media and matchday revenue.
The league is so tight between 13th with Bournemouth on 35 points and West Ham 7th on 43 points. United need to start being ruthless to have any chance of Top 5, the serious competition in the mid table of the PL this season might mean that Villa playing still in Europe and Spurs without talisman Kane might just put a winless 4 or match streak where they take 2 points from 15 cause that’s what it’s going to take to let United back in.
I like that graphic. Great idea with the colours
Spurs playing Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Liverpool in a raw
It’s Spurs we might not need much
Spurs being utterly dismantled by Fulham as we speak
They should have been put away by more too, Fulham carved them apart at will.
Well still need 69-70 points so basically 8 out of 10 wins tall order, even if spurs collapse or villa collapse they are still get late 60’s to early 70’s in points. United need wins and need to beat at least three of Brighton, Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal we need 10 points in those 5 games and 13 points minimum in the other 5 games and that just gets you 70 points.
Spurs are always gonna Spurs and it would be the Spuriest thing that has ever Spursed if we somehow piped Spurs to that 5th champions league place.
Looks like we may effectively have a full compliment of players for the run in. I think we might be able to do it cause I see spurs and Villa bottling it if we keep making ground.
Spurs finish with Burnley and sheff United which on paper looks handy. But it theyve suffered some serious defeats (Liverpool , arsenal and city just before) then those final two games are big pressure games.
Alot to be said going into final weeks of EPL with momentum.
We can’t be over confident with United given how the season has gone but even if we can keep grinding out wins , I’d say we have a decent shout to still nip it.
It’s the hope that kills you.
Well done Fulham!! Epic result!
Last 10 games:
Villa - W5 D1 L4 - 16 pts +2 GD
Spurs - W5 D2 L3 - 17 pts +4 GD
United - W6 D1 L3 - 19 pts +5 GD
Slightly better form than them of late and the run-in is in our favour.
Villa - W5 D1 L4 - 16 pts +2 GD
Spurs - W5 D2 L3 - 17 pts +4 GD
United - W6 D1 L3 - 19 pts +5 GD
Slightly better form than them of late and the run-in is in our favour.
With a minus goal difference
Parking the managerial contraversy, we thankfully look to have wan bissaka, Mount, Hojlund and licha back now. If we can maintain fitness that's giving us good odds. If I'm reading the coefficient play correctly, top 5 should be enough for Champions League.
Thankfully the table is decided on points before looking at goal difference!
I had Spurs finishing at 68 pts but now I re-value at 66 pts max. They get 13 points total from their run to 38.
We need 20 points. 6 games we can deffinitly win but I think we need to beat either Chelsea, Arsenal or LFC to get that 5th. Who knows, maybe Spurs gonna do more Spurs and Villa have a strong run in too and maybe they get weak knees in that top 4.
20 points is our target imo. And doable. If we want to be in CL we have to beat one of said big boys or just forget it and be happy in Europa League. Well done Fulham!
We need 20 points. 6 games we can deffinitly win but I think we need to beat either Chelsea, Arsenal or LFC to get that 5th. Who knows, maybe Spurs gonna do more Spurs and Villa have a strong run in too and maybe they get weak knees in that top 4.
20 points is our target imo. And doable. If we want to be in CL we have to beat one of said big boys or just forget it and be happy in Europa League. Well done Fulham!
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It really is
This is a good result for us, but we have two away games coming up and then Liverpool. Getting more than four points from those would surprise me.
Ten Hag's best 10 game point total with us is 23. No sign we'll get near that so would need relegation level stuff from Spurs or Villa to have a chance.
We have had better form in all competitions this year and welcome back Hojlund, Wan Bissaka, Licha and Mount this year. In our last 10 PL games we have what, 19 points is it? Might need to double check. If true that's whilst navigating without a lot of key players.
Theres certainly more signs of us replicating some better form than not.
Yeh, I just think spurs and Villa could implode if we can keep nipping at them. Also think we may build up momentum we just haven’t had a chance to do with so many injuries. That could whip the team into a sort of “cup run” type end of the season.
Yeah it's certainly in the balance. I think PL stands a good chance for 5 champions league spots, and if so then we only need to catch one of villa and Spurs. All very doable on the big condition that we do away bread and butter teams whilst getting something out of the trickier ones.
Thankfully Arsenal and Liverpool have to come to OT. If we can get some good results before then I can imagine the crowd helping us through. Of course I can also imagine the opposite
Yeah! Tottenham became the first team ever to finish 3rd in a 2 horse race when Leicester won the league and this season they will become the first team to miss out on champions league football to a team with a score difference of -2 or something like that!
Spot on
We won't and I'm OK with europa league
Extra CL spots in the balance as I see it. Currently going to Italy and Germany, I think, so a lot riding on Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham games.Yeah it's certainly in the balance. I think PL stands a good chance for 5 champions league spots, and if so then we only need to catch one of villa and Spurs. All very doable on the big condition that we do away bread and butter teams whilst getting something out of the trickier ones.
Thankfully Arsenal and Liverpool have to come to OT. If we can get some good results before then I can imagine the crowd helping us through. Of course I can also imagine the opposite
It's not in the balance. England have about 70% probability of landing it.
True but I think Villa and City have good edges too. Conference league is weighted no less, right? Liverpool are likely to go all the way. Arsenal winning would be massive of course. Maybe I don't understand the coefficient rules
Some of our easier games (on paper) are away games. I'd be shocked if we don't drop multiple points in the away games against Palace, Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton. I wouldn't be shocked if we win one of the big games. It's just typical for us - win a big game and then drop silly points and lose momentum. Spurs will really need to feck up pretty badly but they have it in them to do so, so we shall see.
When I look at this, it makes it so obvious that we’re getting 4th. Champions League here we come!!
Spurs playing Newcastle, City, Arsenal, Liverpool in a raw
Madrid can beat City, Bayern can beat Arsenal, Leverkusen can beat West Ham and Lille can beat Villa. Not even a guarantee that Liverpool beat Atalanta, given their focus on the league.
I'd agree England have the edge, but the progression of Munich, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Fiorentina are all reasonably possible, two of which would be at the expense of English sides, and we're already guaranteed one Italian side in the Europa semis even if Liverpool do beat Atalanta.
I get what you are saying but I think Spurs could easily go 5 wins 1 draw 4 defeats which is 69 points and I see Villa being more effective with 4 wins 3 Draws 3 Defeats that’s 15 points and 70 points. United need 8 wins 0 draws 2 defeats or 7 wins 2 draws 1 defeats.
We need 23 or 24 points to be absolutely sure and the next three games tell us everything, Brentford (A) very difficult, Chelsea(A), they might think they can win 8 of their 11 games, they’ve played City and Liverpool twice, they have United and Spurs at home and only Arsenal and Villa away who they’ve beaten already at Villa park. If they put a 25/26 point run from last 11 games they could still cause huge problems, unlike us they’ve given City two tough games this season and then we play Liverpool who may have knocked us out of the FA cup by then!
I’m simply not convinced ETH can get 4 points out of those 3 games let alone 7 or 9 !
The % chance isn't debatable mate.
How's it been calculated, because odds are pretty much always debatable?
It’s not in the Balance . Villa winning is the same as City winning.
Sorry, I forgot that it was a sure thing that City were retaining the CL and Villa winning the conference league.