Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season

Red00012

Full Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
12,171
This doesn’t take into account Villa’s ability to bottle it completely. Emery is a serial bottler when it comes to league football. And they have a few tough games coming their way. (+ Thursdays..) and Spurs are Spurs.

I reckon we will beat either Villa or Spurs to fifth.
It also doesn’t include the fact the biggest bottlers of all team are included -Spurs. I think it’ll come down to us getting perhaps a draw v Liverpool at home perhaps beating Chelsea away or nicking a win v Arsenal.
 

Red00012

Full Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
12,171
Rightly so. We've been so poor for so much of the season, that would be an unbelievable overachievement.

I just can't see it happening.
It would take an injury free finish to the season. Maguire , AWB and Hojlund are back . Martinez and Mount are back after the international break. Realistically we would hopefully be only missing Shaw for the run in.
 

vanrooney

Full Member
Joined
Mar 13, 2006
Messages
2,160
Location
Austria
It would take an injury free finish to the season. Maguire , AWB and Hojlund are back . Martinez and Mount are back after the international break. Realistically we would hopefully be only missing Shaw for the run in.
A big problem is, that we have no left back. We saw how the team can gel when Shaw Martinez and hojlund are fit. Just hope its enough for cl. Even if fans don’t like it, cl is the most important to improve a team as the financial impact is massiv an players are more likely to join
 

Wilt

Full Member
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
6,689
Utd have the easier remaining fixtures, though if it comes down to goal difference we’re fecked.
 

groovyalbert

it's a mute point
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
London
Utd have the easier remaining fixtures, though if it comes down to goal difference we’re fecked.
Do we? We still have to play Arsenal, Pool, Chelsea, Brighton - all of which id be a bit surprised if we won given our form this season.
 

Wilt

Full Member
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
6,689
Do we? We still have to play Arsenal, Pool, Chelsea, Brighton - all of which id be a bit surprised if we won given our form this season.
Reckon only Arsenal and Pool will be odds on to beat Utd.

Whereas all the other remaining teams will be odds against to beat Utd.
 

mintyred

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 3, 2023
Messages
301
I don't know why people are even considering we're getting 5th, it's gone bar a massive collapse of Spurs or Villa.
 

Woziak

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2018
Messages
3,572
Exactly my point.

If we finish 6th, we can only end up in the Conference League if England doesn't get the additional Champions League spot and the FA Cup isn't won by a team already qualified for Europe by their league finish (basically Liverpool or City). If we finish 7th, we get the Conference league if England gets the extra spot or the FA Cup is won by Liverpool or City, but not if both happens - then we would get Europa League.

Basically, this is the situation:


At least if I'm understanding it right. Happy to be corrected.
This is 100% correct with the caveat that should West Ham win the Europa League and finish 8th, assuming EPL gets the 5th CL spot then 6, yes 6 English teams would qualify for the CL. Sixth and seventh would still get Europa League if One of the Top 6 (City, Liverpool or United won the Fa Cup.

So using current positions ; Arsenal, Liverpool, City, Villa, Spurs and West Ham all CL. United and Brighton would qualify Europa League and Wolves would qualify for Europa Conference league play off.

That’s 9 English teams, which basically is a cheat code because the more EPL team compete and win the more likely they are to always have one of the extra two spaces.

Now fans can understand why 7th place to 12th is so competitive as 4th to 6th and 1st to 3rd this season, the days of 95+ points to win the EPL are long gone!
 

Woziak

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2018
Messages
3,572
I don't know why people are even considering we're getting 5th, it's gone bar a massive collapse of Spurs or Villa.
I completely agree with you but your get shot down on this thread like I did for talking sense, we lost 11 EPL games from 28, there’s no way United are qualifying for CL with that level of defeats.

We would need 8 wins from 10 games to get to 71 points, the bare minimum normally required for CL qualification is 70-73 points.

It’s not happening, the Fulham defeat made sure of that !
 

groovyalbert

it's a mute point
Joined
Feb 14, 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
London
Reckon only Arsenal and Pool will be odds on to beat Utd.

Whereas all the other remaining teams will be odds against to beat Utd.
Maybe, but we've lost every game v Brighton under ETH and always look like shite at their stadium. Chelsea away is no walk in the park. I'd probably expect 2-4 points from those games which would likely take us out of a top 5 race.
 

Leftback99

Might have a bedwetting fetish.
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
14,346
Reckon only Arsenal and Pool will be odds on to beat Utd.

Whereas all the other remaining teams will be odds against to beat Utd.
The only games we'll be 'odds on' favourites are likely to be Sheff Utd and Burnley at home.

Chelsea, Brighton, Liverpool and Arsenal will all be favourites against us.
 

Fingeredmouse

Full Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2014
Messages
5,638
Location
Glasgow
I would be incredibly surprised if we're anything other than 6th. We have not shown the capacity to go on the sort of run needed to get to 5th for a long time. Fulham was a death blow.
 

AndySmith1990

Full Member
Joined
Oct 2, 2021
Messages
6,169
Unless Ten Hag is gone I see no reason to give a shit about qualifying for the CL. The imbecile couldn't make it higher than bottom in the easiest group we could've wished for.

It makes the whole thing even more ridiculous that we're now desperately hoping we scrape through by finishing 5th. 5th for feck sake. "Champions" league my arse
 

Wilt

Full Member
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
6,689
Maybe, but we've lost every game v Brighton under ETH and always look like shite at their stadium. Chelsea away is no walk in the park. I'd probably expect 2-4 points from those games which would likely take us out of a top 5 race.
Reckon Utd will need to (unlikely) average at least 2 points per game (67 pts) to have any chance at all of getting 5th.

Realistically think 6th is the best Utd could do, although if Chelsea beat Utd they could nick it.
 

wolvored

Full Member
Joined
Jul 6, 2016
Messages
9,934
My predictions.
Villa - 10 games left, sitting on 55 points, remaining games:
West Ham D 56pts
City L 56pts
Brentford W 59pts
Arsenal L 59pts
Bournemouth W 62pts
Chelsea D 63pts
Brighton D 64pts
Liverpool L 64pts
Crystal Palace W 67pts

Spurs - 11 games left, sitting on 53 points, remaining games:
Fulham W 56pts
Luton W 59pts
West Ham W 62pts
Forest W 65pts
Newcastle D 66pts
City L 66pts
Arsenal L 66pts
Liverpool L 66pts
Burnley W 69pts
Sheffield Utd W 72pts
Chelsea W 75pts

United - 10 games left, sitting on 47 points, remaining games:
Brentford W 50pts
Chelsea W 53pts
Liverpool D 54pts
Bournemouth W 57pts
Newcastle D 58pts
Burnley W 61pts
Crystal Palace W 64pts
Arsenal D 65pts
Brighton 66pts
Sheffield Utd W 69pts

So Spurs 4th, United 5th and Villa 6th. We scrape into CL by 2pts.
Way too optimistic. We won’t go the rest of the season without losing again.
 

Red00012

Full Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
12,171
Unless Ten Hag is gone I see no reason to give a shit about qualifying for the CL. The imbecile couldn't make it higher than bottom in the easiest group we could've wished for.

It makes the whole thing even more ridiculous that we're now desperately hoping we scrape through by finishing 5th. 5th for feck sake. "Champions" league my arse
Financially a CL qualification would be huge
 

Fortitude

TV/Monitor Expert
Scout
Joined
Jul 10, 2004
Messages
22,754
Location
Inside right
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
 

Wilt

Full Member
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
6,689
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
In effect battle for 4th place

8/13 - Spurs
5/4 - Villa
14/1 - Utd
 

parmenio

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Aug 8, 2023
Messages
227
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
Can’t see us making up 8 points between now and seasons end with either Spurs or Villa. But then again they have far better managers than us.
 

DJ_21

Evens winner of 'Odds or Evens 2022/2023'
Joined
Aug 31, 2015
Messages
12,008
Location
Manchester
If Liverpool win the europa and the pl get the extra place from UEFA we only need to finish 6th to qualify?
Not sure. Wouldn’t the runners up of the Europa get it if that team isn’t top 4 in there league?
 

Reiver

Full Member
Joined
Sep 27, 2016
Messages
2,535
Location
Near Glasgow
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
I can't see it. Spurs and Villa both generally play far better football than we do, coupled by the fact they are already ahead of us.
 

DJ_21

Evens winner of 'Odds or Evens 2022/2023'
Joined
Aug 31, 2015
Messages
12,008
Location
Manchester
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
Not sure. Villa possibly have the easiest fixtures left. But spurs could easily beat Arsenal/City at home. Where as we could just as easy loose an home game to Burnley
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,243
Supports
Aston Villa
Maybe, but we've lost every game v Brighton under ETH and always look like shite at their stadium. Chelsea away is no walk in the park. I'd probably expect 2-4 points from those games which would likely take us out of a top 5 race.
Brentford away going to be tricky aswell for you guys given it was 4-0 last season, they have Toney back and losing in the manner they did at OT would've hurt them incredibly. And of course they're still thick in the relegation battle.

Strange time to bump the thread as tbh given your next three games are two aways in London (lost three times there already this season) and then home to Liverpool you could be further off 5th than you are now.

After the break Spurs have Luton at home and we have Wolves at home who have a mountain of injuries so the gap could easily increase.
 

Leftback99

Might have a bedwetting fetish.
Joined
Jan 11, 2015
Messages
14,346
Starting from now, how many believe we'll top the mini table between the three sides from here to the end of the season?
As in points over the next 10 games? We might beat Villa by a couple of points but Spurs will top it.
 

BorisManUtd

Full Member
Joined
Nov 4, 2013
Messages
3,794
Sheffield United and Burnley at home + maybe Palace away are the games I do expect us to win. Brentford and Bournemouth away we could drop points (especially at Bournemouth), while Chelsea and Newcastle are the ones where you feel a draw is realistic outcome. Brighton beat us every time under ten Hag and Arsenal are way better than us. So even if we were ahead of Spurs and Villa, I wouldn't be optimistic with how we play. Behind behind both teams with dreadful goal difference, our chances are even tinier.

Think Spurs finish 4th and then our only hope is Villa start dropping points (which I can see happening) and playing EL affects their league form. So it's an outside chance for us mostly.
 

Giggsyking

Full Member
Joined
Aug 24, 2013
Messages
8,471
However it ends up I think 5 is maximum for any country
No 6 is maximum, but, that requires a premier league team winning the champions league but finishing outside top 4, and a premier league team finishing outside the top 4 winning the Europa league, and England getting an extra spot from highest 2 European association coefficient.

It will be top 3,
CL winner
UL winner
Extra CL spot for 4th for highest European association
 

Red00012

Full Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
12,171
No 6 is maximum, but, that requires a premier league team winning the champions league but finishing outside top 4, and a premier league team finishing outside the top 4 winning the Europa league, and England getting an extra spot from highest 2 European association coefficient.

It will be top 3,
CL winner
UL winner
Extra CL spot for 4th for highest European association
It’s 7 maximum actually .