Race for Top 5 finish - Possible 5 teams in CL next season

Pintu

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FortunaUtd said:
I am not sure but I think the rule of having the losing finalist take up the FA Cup EL spot when the winner is already CL qualified has been abandoned in favour of an extra EL spot via the league table. So the 6th (or 7th if indeed the PL got a 5th CL spot which will be a very close call) will qualify for EL while the 7th or 8th for ECL. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but ECL here we come.
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you are right indeed… Here is the break it down i did in this thread.

Pintu said:
if we expect city to win the FA Cup, then, normally 7th or 8th goes to the conference league, depending on whether England gets the extra CL spot or not.

scenario 1: City wins the FA Cup and England makes the UEFA top 2. (7th play Europa league, and 8th play conference league)

scenario 2:City wins the FA Cup and England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (6th play Europa league, and 7th play conference league)

scenario 3:Man United wins the FA Cup, we are guaranteed Europa league, at least, no matter the rest.

scenario 4: Coventry or Chelsea wins the FA Cup and England makes the UEFA top 2. ( FA Cup winner play Europa league, and 7th play conference league)

scenario 5: Coventry or Chelsea wins the FA Cup and England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (FA Cup winner play Europa league, and 6th play conference league)

The last two scenarios are also based on Chelsea, not making top six of the PL.
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Added possibilites of Chelsea 6th (wasn’t reasonable three weeks ago)
scenario 7: Chelsea wins the FA Cup & finishes 6th + England makes the UEFA top 2. ( FA Cup winner is the 6th so plays Europa league, and 7th also play Europa, 8th play conference league)

scenario 8: Chelsea wins the FA Cup & finishes 6th but England fails to make the UEFA top 2. (5th + FA Cup winner who is the 6th plays Europa league and 7th play conference league)
 

Pintu

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KiD MoYeS said:
Both City and Villa are probably both favourites to win their competition, will that not have a significant impact on the rankings if they do?

We are not getting fifth so it is little relevance to us but be interesting to know.
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It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.
 

KiD MoYeS

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Pintu said:
It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.
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I get you. Thanks for explaining.
 

stefan92

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KiD MoYeS said:
Both City and Villa are probably both favourites to win their competition, will that not have a significant impact on the rankings if they do?

We are not getting fifth so it is little relevance to us but be interesting to know.
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Problem is, those are only two teams. If all German and English teams get the results today and tomorrow that I expect, we will see Dortmund, Bayern and Leverkusen reaching semifinals for Germany, but only Villa and City for England. Which means that Germany's lead over England would increase. Villa winning the ECL would then give the same points as Leverkusen winning the EL (I think both are favourites). So then it comes down to City vs Bayern and Dortmund to make up the gap. If Bayern and Dortmund at least get one result in their ties, even if they don't reach the final, they should have done enough to defend this lead.

But of course it can still all go completely different, as it is quite close.
 

KiD MoYeS

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stefan92 said:
Problem is, those are only two teams. If all German and English teams get the results today and tomorrow that I expect, we will see Dortmund, Bayern and Leverkusen reaching semifinals for Germany, but only Villa and City for England. Which means that Germany's lead over England would increase. Villa winning the ECL would then give the same points as Leverkusen winning the EL (I think both are favourites). So then it comes down to City vs Bayern and Dortmund to make up the gap. If Bayern and Dortmund at least get one result in their ties, even if they don't reach the final, they should have done enough to defend this lead.

But of course it can still all go completely different, as it is quite close.
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I assumed there was more points weighted to winning trophies but I guess it's just points allocated by wins?
 

stefan92

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KiD MoYeS said:
I assumed there was more points weighted to winning trophies but I guess it's just points allocated by wins?
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Bonus points are awarded for reaching the next stages, but not for winning the final. A win is 2 points, a draw is 1 point, reaching the QF/SF/Final is 1 bonus point in CL and EL, in the ECL only for reaching SF/F.
 

Sounds of the Aquarium

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KiD MoYeS said:
I assumed there was more points weighted to winning trophies but I guess it's just points allocated by wins?
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yes it more game winning and then getting the bonus points for getting through the rounds.
for example , even though Arsenal and City are at the same stage , Arsenal only have 22 points but City have 27!
 

miliebrowndivorceattorney

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Pintu said:
It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.
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Gee, what complication. I have to cheer for Arsenal beating my beloved Bayern/Tuchel (would love to see him at United but man, that would mean we have to sell our whole squad! catering for 3-4-3).

In a way I could live with 5th not getting the ticket for CL. The hope that kills you. Also, at the moment we have no business in the CL. In terms of building up, I would favor a run in UEFA league. But, yes, if we make 5th and get that CL ticket, boy that would be very sweet. Also would completly redeem ETH.
 

Alex99

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Pintu said:
It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.
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Guaranteed Italian Europa semi-finalist with Milan/Roma, and Atalanta have one foot there too, I would expect Fiorentina are at least slight favourites to get past Plzen in the Conference League. That should be more than enough for Italy to secure a spot.

Dortmund obviously already in the semi-final in the CL, and Leverkusen seem likely to progress in the Europa. If Bayern get past Arsenal, you'd imagine that'd be enough for Germany too.

Not that United are getting a CL place. The only material difference this is going to make is whether we're in the Europa or Conference League (or Europe at all, the way things are going).
 

BorisManUtd

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We're not getting 5th place. So as I'm petty hopefully Premier League don't get it either.
 

Alex99

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BorisManUtd said:
We're not getting 5th place. So as I'm petty hopefully Premier League don't get it either.
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It will affect the Europa and Conference league places too.

I think there are a few permutations depending on who wins the FA Cup too, but basically, 8th could end up as a Conference League place.
 

FortunaUtd

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Pintu said:
It will, but it depends how they do and how good Germany performs… if we suppose Italians will do reasonably well enough to stay first(with Atalanta and Fiorentina winning 1 more game each)… Leverkusen can cancel out Villa’s performance, and then we might be in danger if reduced to City vs (Bayern + Dortmund). City might have to beat Bayern twice and then win its final inside the 120 minutes.
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The problem is also that whatever points English teams get will be divided by 8 for the coefficient (because the PL had 8 teams in Europe this season) vs Germany's and Italy's divided though 7. Meaning they get more for one win in terms of coefficient than PL teams do. Not sure whether it matters much given there are only few games left and thus points to win, but it sure has mattered so far.
 

Telsim

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I take it we won't be playing in the Champions League next season?
 

lost7

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We weren't gonna finish 5th anyways let's be honest
 

Wayne's World

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Surely with Liverpool about go to out, West Ham definitely out and City & Arsenal gone that's 5th spot over with
 

Winrar

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Yeah, that's the coefficient fecked. Don't care though, don't have to see City win another treble.
 

Irwin99

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makes for an exciting 4th place battle between Spurs and Villa I guess.

Spurs have to play all three of the title challengers as well.
 

El Zoido

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Irwin99 said:
makes for an exciting 4th place battle between Spurs and Villa I guess.

Spurs have to play all three of the title challengers as well.
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They play Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and City in their last 6 games.
 

stefan92

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miliebrowndivorceattorney said:
So...this discussion is finished, with City and Arsenal out of CL?
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Very likely, except some miracles happen tomorrow. Germany has a solid lead and if everything goes as expected will have three semifinal participants (München, Dortmund, Leverkusen) and England only one (Villa) across all competitions. Would be practically impossible for Villa to take that around on their own.

However if West Ham and Liverpool pull some off amazing comebacks the gap closes and it will be 3 vs 2 teams left for England, which would keep the race open again.
 

Woziak

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Wonderful Night, City115 not doing another treble plus knackered now for SF against Chelsea, Arsenal Season now have to go for broke to stop City115 in PL and if LiVARpool come back they might need 120 mins too tomorrow ll
 

thegregster

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It will be only the 2nd time in around 20 seasons that the PL won't be in the top 2 ranking for the season.

How ironic will it be when Spurs finish 5th. :lol:
 

Pintu

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thegregster said:
It will be only the 2nd time in around 20 seasons that the PL won't be in the top 2 ranking for the season.

How ironic will it be when Spurs finish 5th. :lol:
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I think you got that wrong. This will be the 4th time in 10 years… and the second time in the 5 years cycle…
 

Alex99

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This has gone well for the people convinced this was in the bag for the PL after the round of 16.
 

do.ob

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Germany is .768 points ahead now.

Times 8 that's 6.114 points English teams have to make up now.

I can't be bothered looking at this in detail, so I may be wrong here:

Villa can only earn ten points, even if they win all their four remaining games within 90 minutes.

Let's assume tomorrow Liverpool win, but don't progress and Leverkusen win too, earning them an extra point.

Then it would take like 3 more points between Bayern, Dortmund and Leverkusen to beat Villa acing their competition.

Someone needs to put more effort into this, since Germany's points are worth a little more than England's in the ranking - but I think it's pretty safe to say that at least one of the EL teams needs to progress for the PL.
 
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BenitoSTARR

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AndySmith1990 said:
Of course the person who defends Ten Hag thinks being in the conference league is perfect
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I don’t defend, I contextualise.

Think about it are we ready for CL football?

Will the squad have the wide changes needed to compete across that many competitions?

It would give us a chance to blood in new players in a low stakes environment.
Someone said:
Perfect for the Kids maybe. I wouldn't even let our first team players travel.
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Could be the making of some of our youngsters though. Perfect development opportunity as they won’t get the minutes in the PL.
 
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