Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

DanH

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How did you get the leak as coming from the Ukrainian side? Did I miss something in the article?
 

dove

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Maybe I am overthinking but can it be a deliberate attempt to deceive? We see all kind of conflicting information starting to fly around, just like before previous counter offensives.
 

the hea

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Someone out there and within the Ukrainian government is behaving in a very moronic way.
Maybe we should wait a little with the blaming until we know who leaked them.
According to this thread the earliest known apperance of the documents online was in a 4chan thread 3 days ago.

 

Ragnar123

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Wagner in central Bakhmut. Ukranian forces most likely moved to the western part of town and build a new defense line. Still, even if Bakhmut finally falls in a couple of weeks, Russia depleted their men and equipment just for a propaganda town, while Ukraine prepares 8 new brigades with 40.000 men and western armor for their offensive.
 

Coxy

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Wagner in central Bakhmut. Ukranian forces most likely moved to the western part of town and build a new defense line. Still, even if Bakhmut finally falls in a couple of weeks, Russia depleted their men and equipment just for a propaganda town, while Ukraine prepares 8 new brigades with 40.000 men and western armor for their offensive.
How do we know they have these new brigades etc?
 

dove

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Wagner in central Bakhmut. Ukranian forces most likely moved to the western part of town and build a new defense line. Still, even if Bakhmut finally falls in a couple of weeks, Russia depleted their men and equipment just for a propaganda town, while Ukraine prepares 8 new brigades with 40.000 men and western armor for their offensive.
Unfortunately I think it was costly for Ukraine too, just hopefully it was worth it.
 

Raoul

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Wagner in central Bakhmut. Ukranian forces most likely moved to the western part of town and build a new defense line. Still, even if Bakhmut finally falls in a couple of weeks, Russia depleted their men and equipment just for a propaganda town, while Ukraine prepares 8 new brigades with 40.000 men and western armor for their offensive.
Yeah, its a pointless exercise for the Russians and show how utterly desperate Putin is for a glimmer of success in Ukraine. He would've been much better off retaining Kherson, which is a fairly large city by Ukrainian standards. Let's hope the Ukrainian counteroffensive takes back most of their territory.
 

VorZakone

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The new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive and that the United States is able to warn its allies about Moscow’s future operations.

The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning.
 

Frosty

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A very long article that in the end doesn’t really say much. I suppose the Times were under pressure to put something out given the various docs floating around.
Although if you want a paranoid dictator to turn his focus on unnecessary purges of his intelligence services, this would be the article to publish.
 

Organic Potatoes

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A very long article that in the end doesn’t really say much. I suppose the Times were under pressure to put something out given the various docs floating around.
To be fair (in regards to the snippet above from @VorZakone), it has felt like we had a better idea of what Russia is going to do than our friend Ukraine...especially early on.
 

dove

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Just a reminder that we have quite a few people including the likes of Macron who are constantly pushing for negotiations. If anyone still needed further proof that there is absolutely nothing to negotiate about, here we go. They don’t even hide their genocidal ambitions. Military win is the only way for Ukraine and it was obvious since day 1.
 

Ragnar123

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The western armor collection grows.

Ukraine also reported about 470 liquidated personnel and 0 destroyed tanks in their daily report. That indicates, that Russia stopped its offensive moves and prepares for Ukraine's offensive. In any case, stopping Russia's winter offensive and not losing any key positions is another big win for Ukraine.
The coming offensive will determine how long the war will continue. If it fails, Putin will continue his war of attrition. If it succeeds, Putin will be under big pressure to negotiate.
 
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Maagge

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The western armor collection grows.

Ukraine also reported about 470 liquidated personnel and 0 destroyed tanks in their daily report. That indicates, that Russia stopped its offensive moves and prepares for Ukraine's offensive. In any case, stopping Russia's winter offensive and not losing any key positions is another big win for Ukraine.
The coming offensive will determine how long the war will continue. If it fails, Putin will continue his war of attrition. If it succeeds, Putin will be under big pressure to negotiate.
Do we know what the state of the battlefields are in terms of terrain? That we don't see any destroyed tanks could also be an indication that they can't get anywhere due to being bogged down in mud and what have you, so Russia can only send in the infantry.
 

Ragnar123

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Do we know what the state of the battlefields are in terms of terrain? That we don't see any destroyed tanks could also be an indication that they can't get anywhere due to being bogged down in mud and what have you, so Russia can only send in the infantry.
Sure, the thaw kills every heavy armor movement right now, but 470 liquidated personnel is also an indicator. Ukraine reported daily around 1000 Russian KIA during their winter offensive.
 

nimic

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Has this been posted already? Seems like the US has much lower killed estimations than many here seem to assume, for both sides. If this whole thing is real, which seems to be a bit up in the air.