Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Rajma]

Emotionally all for this, but logically just cannot see a tactical benefit in doing such.

Have they ascertained who launched these drone attacks?

Logic is very simple, the factual events unfolding from the war are currently not reconciling with Russian TV viewers and the idea is that they will finally begin to see that their SMO is not really going according to the plan as proudly stated daily by their Putin and propaganda. The obvious questions will start to pop up more and more in the society: Why are we lied to? Do we really need this? Did we have drone attacks before the February of last year? Now they’re mostly indifferent and since it’s not impacting their daily lives that much, not many are willing to express their frustrations with this SMO. The consequences of SMO are needed to be felt in order for frustrations to start building up internally.

 

[Simbo]

Emotionally all for this, but logically just cannot see a tactical benefit in doing such.

Have they ascertained who launched these drone attacks?

No clue. Ukraine aren't claiming it, stating its Russian "internal problems".

 

[VorZakone]

Logic is very simple, the factual events unfolding from the war are currently not reconciling with Russian TV viewers and the idea is that they will finally begin to see that their SMO is not really going according to the plan as proudly stated daily by their Putin and propaganda. The obvious questions will start to pop up more and more in the society: Why are we lied to? Do we really need this? Did we have drone attacks before the February of last year? Now they’re mostly indifferent and since it’s not impacting their daily lives that much, not many are willing to express their frustrations with this SMO. The consequences of SMO are needed to be felt in order for frustrations to start building up internally.

The problem here is the potential for backfiring. Rather than questioning the invasion, the population might become more willing to support it instead and stand behind the Russian military.

Obviously I don't know which scenario will play out but if I was Ukraine I'd avoid upsetting the Russian population...

 

[harms]

No clue. Ukraine aren't claiming it, stating its Russian "internal problems".

Nah, you can always say by Podolyak's reaction. When he denies it, he denies it, when he takes the piss, it's them (but he doesn't want to openly take credit) – Podolyak said that the AI is constantly evolving so maybe drones decided on their own not to fly to Ukraine that day and to target Moscow instead. And that's taking the piss.

 

[harms]

Its not like Ukraine has had a bombing of Dresden monent. However that only emboldened the german populations resolve towards the war effort through propaganda. It seems unfair that Russia itself shouldnt be striked but i think attacks in Russia will only result in more Russians signing up.

I'm in two minds about this. I'm scared that this can lead to genuine mobilization of people behind the war effort (smth in the lines of: "we told you they'd attack us if we didn't attack them first – and look, they did!") but at the same time these attacks certainly lead to further destabilization of the regime in general.

It's all about the critical thinking ability but that's, sadly, something that isn't all that common in Russia.

 

[Raoul]

Whats up @frostbite

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[Gehrman]

I'm in two minds about this. I'm scared that this can lead to genuine mobilization of people behind the war effort (smth in the lines of: "we told you they'd attack us if we didn't attack them first – and look, they did!") but at the same time these attacks certainly lead to further destabilization of the regime in general.

It's all about the critical thinking ability but that's, sadly, something that isn't all that common in Russia.

As it is. And im not russian. I dont live there, work there or travel or anything. But I can only see attacks on Russian soil as a motivation for russians to step up the war effort. It´s all about nationalism. Its more effective to show what a complete disaster the invasion has been like the boss of the wagner group showed. Striking into Russia simply attracts more nationalists to believe this all necessary to defeat the Ukranian "jewish Nazis´".

In my opinon, its not what is fair, but what is skillfull.

 

[The Firestarter]

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Germany something something

 

[stefan92]

Germany something something

sigh
Get ready my fellow Germans, it's time to take over Greece again. Last time we had to force them stop giving money away they didn't have, now it's time to motivate them giving stuff away that they do have. Probably we overdid it while teaching "not spending too much money"?

 

[Gehrman]

sigh
Get ready my fellow Germans, it's time to take over Greece again. Last time we had to force them stop giving money away they didn't have, now it's time to motivate them giving stuff away that they do have. Probably we overdid it while teaching "not spending too much money"?

The sooner people can move away from this almost religous view of the EU the better.

 

[the hea]

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[Raoul]

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[Morty_]

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Why can't someone just put a bullet in his head whenever he goes out of hiding?

 

[harms]

Why can't someone just put a bullet in his head whenever he goes out of hiding?

You seriously underestimate security measures around him. Half of the Moscow centre was closed so that he was able to get to the Zotov centre (I assume that that's him there) without any hassle.

 

[Spark]

Can't see any benefit whatsoever to these drone attacks, other than to signal to Russia that Moscow isn't untouchable. But I'd say that Ukraine has far more to lose than to gain with seemingly indiscriminate drone attacks against Russia - which makes me think that this isn't sanctioned by the Ukrainian government (could be some 3rd party or a false flag).

 

[Raoul]

Can't see any benefit whatsoever to these drone attacks, other than to signal to Russia that Moscow isn't untouchable. But I'd say that Ukraine has far more to lose than to gain with seemingly indiscriminate drone attacks against Russia - which makes me think that this isn't sanctioned by the Ukrainian government (could be some 3rd party or a false flag).

If anything, its a reminder that Ukraine have the means to strike within the heart of Russia, which itself has a psychologically destabilizing aspect to it, in a regime that previously thought its domestic interests were safe because all fighting was abroad.

 

[the hea]

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[Spark]

If anything, its a reminder that Ukraine have the means to strike within the heart of Russia, which itself has a psychologically destabilizing aspect to it, in a regime that previously thought its domestic interests were safe because all fighting was abroad.

Yeah, but at what cost? It undermines Ukrainian statements on targeting civilian infrastructure (the scale of Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine is irrelevant), gives Russia a rallying cry and enables Russia to escalate - all the while putting strain on Ukraine's NATO relations, as their western backers have been explicit in saying that they don't want any of their weapons/attacks in general on Russian soil (hence the need for plausible deniability via sabotage).

Russia is well aware of the capabilities of the Ukrainians, there have been countless sabotage events within Russia since the war began not to mention the immediate use of Storm Shadow, patriot missiles etc. This token attack on Russia, which seemingly just hit civilian infrastructure, has very little gain. Have read that it might force Russia to push its air defence further back, but still think that's not worth the negative consequences. So far the Ukrainian strategy has been spot on, can only see this as detrimental. Time will tell though.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah, but at what cost? It undermines Ukrainian statements on targeting civilian infrastructure (the scale of Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine is irrelevant), gives Russia a rallying cry and enables Russia to escalate - all the while putting strain on Ukraine's NATO relations, as their western backers have been explicit in saying that they don't want any of their weapons/attacks in general on Russian soil (hence the need for plausible deniability via sabotage).

Russia is well aware of the capabilities of the Ukrainians, there have been countless sabotage events within Russia since the war began not to mention the immediate use of Storm Shadow, patriot missiles etc. This token attack on Russia, which seemingly just hit civilian infrastructure, has very little gain. Have read that it might force Russia to push its air defence further back, but still think that's not worth the negative consequences. So far the Ukrainian strategy has been spot on, can only see this as detrimental. Time will tell though.

Have the Ukrainians taken responsibility for any of these ? I always thought they neither confirmed nor denied any operations inside Russia.

 

[Raoul]

A bit of progress in Bakhmut it seems

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[Raoul]

He clearly lives in his own self-contained bubble of delusion.

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[B20]

He clearly lives in his own self-contained bubble of delusion.

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A putin classic. accuse the enemy of what you are doing.

 

[stefan92]

He clearly lives in his own self-contained bubble of delusion.

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To be honest I think this is a quite accurate statement. Russia as a major power with imperialistic tendencies needs to win this war to keep existing as such. A loss in Ukraine would destroy that image and self perception. It would indeed destroy Putin's Russia.

 

[Raoul]

To be honest I think this is a quite accurate statement. Russia as a major power with imperialistic tendencies needs to win this war to keep existing as such. A loss in Ukraine would destroy that image and self perception. It would indeed destroy Putin's Russia.

Yeah but he could've just as well preserved his regime by not attacking Ukraine in the first place. He's obviously talking nonsense in the same way Trump does - by saying he is being attacked while actually doing the attacking.

 

[stefan92]

Yeah but he could've just as well preserved his regime by not attacking Ukraine in the first place. He's obviously talking nonsense in the same way Trump does - by saying he is being attacked while actually doing the attacking.

Preserving - yes.
Living up to its own expectations - no.

The birthplace of Russia not being part of the Russian Federation is a major ideological problem and taking over Ukraine was the only solution for that.

But I agree in so far as that's a hole he dug himself into.

 

[nickm]

Can't see any benefit whatsoever to these drone attacks, other than to signal to Russia that Moscow isn't untouchable.

Makes Putin look weak, gives his security apparatus a fit, signals Ukraine is playing offence and not defence, keeps his regime off balance and makes them wonder "what's next". That's the benefit. All part of the softening up exercise ahead of the counter offensive.

 

[Rajma]

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Seems like Ukraine is finally getting ATACMS too.
Biden earlier today confirmed these are still very much in-play:

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My guess is ATACMS could have been part of the deal with Republicans when it comes to lifting the debt limit…

 

[Simbo]

This guy is usually worth a read.

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[maniak]

sigh
Get ready my fellow Germans, it's time to take over Greece again. Last time we had to force them stop giving money away they didn't have, now it's time to motivate them giving stuff away that they do have. Probably we overdid it while teaching "not spending too much money"?

Just curious, how do you evaluate the role of germany in the whole crisis in southern europe? Positive? Negative?

 

[frostbite]

Whats up @frostbite

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I have no idea. I am a US citizen, I live in the US, and none of my US/Greek/European friends said anything about this, it is not even an issue as far as I know.

I am curious, where do you find these tweets? Are you on twitter all day? Is this "Igor Something" an important person?

 

[Raoul]

I have no idea. I am a US citizen, I live in the US, and none of my US/Greek/European friends said anything about this, it is not even an issue as far as I know.

I am curious, where do you find these tweets? Are you on twitter all day? Is this "Igor Something" an important person?

Precisely. I'm on Twitter 24/7 searching for tweets about Greek policy towards Russia.

 

[frostbite]

Precisely. I'm on Twitter 24/7 searching for tweets about Greek policy towards Russia.

Well, then perhaps it is a good idea to delete this "Igor" guy from the people you are following because what he says is not in the Politico article he referred to. I don't know anything about the issue, but my guess is that probably the Greek PM was trying to protect the Greek shipowners, perhaps some paragraph could be damaging for them. Politico says that the EU meeting is on June 26th, I am sure everything will be fine by then. Greece has general elections on June 25th, and the Greek shipowners are important in Greek politics.

 

[do.ob]

Ah yes, need to protect those Greek shipowners, who are probably making a killing from shipping all that Russian oil. Makes perfect sense.
It's nice to have such incorruptible partners.

 

[Real Name]

Being in the same company with Orban is never a good thing. Shipowners or not.

 

[stefan92]

Just curious, how do you evaluate the role of germany in the whole crisis in southern europe? Positive? Negative?

Bit of both, I am not really sure about this. There were a lot of discussions about the right way to deal with this so I am not sure the best decisions were made.

What is definitely negative is the long term effect on German politics - the right wing AfD party was founded because of the Euro crisis and is now Russia's best friend in Germany.

 

[frostbite]

I could never imagine that something like that can happen in the 21st century, in Europe...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304

Ukraine war: The mothers going to get their children back from Russia

 

[frostbite]

About Greece and Germany, we are allies and we love each other. Many Germans visit Greece, have houses in Greece, and many Germans actually love Greece. And today, there is total agreement between Greece and Germany about helping Ukraine and stopping the Russian invasion. The now-destroyed Mariupol had a sizable Greek minority, used to be third in size after Ukrainians and Russians:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol#Ethnic_structure

As a positive example, all Greeks love Otto Rehhagel, watch the 2021 "King Otto" documentary for more details (in the US it is available on Peacock, which also has the rights for many EPL games):
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14404882/reference/


But there are some problems as well. One negative example is the WW2 reparations, which is not a closed subject, definitely not for Greece:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu...s-in-bundestag-over-wwii-reparations-dispute/
https://greekreporter.com/2023/01/19/greek-president-mentions-war-reparations-germany/


For those who don't know what happened, Wikipedia can help:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_reparations#Greece

As a result of the Nazi German occupation, much of Greece was subjected to enormous destruction of its industry (80% of which was destroyed), infrastructure (28% destroyed), ports, roads, railways and bridges (90%), forests and other natural resources (25%) and loss of civilian life (7.02–11.17% of its citizens). Other sources put the total number of deaths resulting from the Axis occupation at 273,000 to 747,000 Greeks, or 3.7-10.2% of the prewar population. The occupying Nazi regime forced Greece to pay the cost of the occupation in the country and requisite raw materials and food for the occupation forces, creating the conditions for the Great Famine. Furthermore, in 1942, the Greek Central Bank was forced by the occupying Nazi regime to lend 476 million Reichsmarks at 0% interest to Nazi Germany.

 

[do.ob]

Trying to draw a line from WW2 all the way Greece increasing their trade with Russia after the invasion, Greek ships being the main vector of Russian oil, Greek politicians blocking sanctions and Greece rather aiming their Leopards at Nato allies than give a single one to Ukraine takes whataboutism to a whole new level..

Not that any of this should come as a surprise, considering their reputation for corruption.

 

[africanspur]

Wait a minute, I thought you were an American citizen living in the USA? Now suddenly you're a Greek again?

 

[Lightbringer]

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