Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Sir Matt

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Possible 2nd push for Kiev at some point still on the cards?
Assuming these units would be functional, it's possible they try to use them against Kyiv if their push in the Donbas gets stopped or repulsed. It may keep Ukraine from moving all of its troops east if they think this group could make another push.
 

Beans

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Not in Ukraine, but cool…

I remember reading that the USSR extensively used fake equipment to fool US satellite and spy plane photography into thinking their armed forces were more formidable. So this would be expected.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Yep, he did and he has been there for around a month now. He posted this photo on his Twitter account too.


He is a former United States Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer with 20 years of service (1981-2001) with a specialization in naval cryptology, which means that he was involved in numerous counter-terrorism, intelligence, and combat operations. That's the kind of special set of skills that would help the Ukrainian forces a lot.
 

Pexbo

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Yep, he did and he has been there for around a month now. He posted this photo on his Twitter account too.


He is a former United States Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer with 20 years of service (1981-2001) with a specialization in naval cryptology, which means that he was involved in numerous counter-terrorism, intelligence, and combat operations. That's the kind of special set of skills that would help the Ukrainian forces a lot.
Is there a danger of a “straw that broke the camel’s back” narrative here?

One American/UK/French/German soldier feels the call to take up arms and go join the Ukrainian armed forces defending Ukraine. Then another. And another. They’re using western imported/donated weapons and acting on western intelligence.

From a Russian POV, at what point are these people individuals helping Ukraine and at what point are they NATO forces? Is it 1? Is it when a Ukrainian regiment has 10% western troops helping it? 50%?

Nothing more than a thought exercise really but it would be interesting to know what Russia would do if they found 10/15 western troops among the dead when they’re clearing out a city.
 

tomaldinho1

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Is there a danger of a “straw that broke the camel’s back” narrative here?

One American/UK/French/German soldier feels the call to take up arms and go join the Ukrainian armed forces defending Ukraine. Then another. And another. They’re using western imported/donated weapons and acting on western intelligence.

From a Russian POV, at what point are these people individuals helping Ukraine and at what point are they NATO forces? Is it 1? Is it when a Ukrainian regiment has 10% western troops helping it? 50%?

Nothing more than a thought exercise really but it would be interesting to know what Russia would do if they found 10/15 western troops among the dead when they’re clearing out a city.
Russia’s messaging to the people at home is already that they are fighting NATO and that’s why it’s taking so long. They can’t really up the ante from that in terms of propaganda regarding troops on the ground.

We already know they’ll just create narratives when they need to so I don’t actually think it would make a difference now to be honest. I believe they’ve also had two British POWs on state television to ‘prove’ it’s not just Ukraine they are fighting.
 

do.ob

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Is there a danger of a “straw that broke the camel’s back” narrative here?

One American/UK/French/German soldier feels the call to take up arms and go join the Ukrainian armed forces defending Ukraine. Then another. And another. They’re using western imported/donated weapons and acting on western intelligence.

From a Russian POV, at what point are these people individuals helping Ukraine and at what point are they NATO forces? Is it 1? Is it when a Ukrainian regiment has 10% western troops helping it? 50%?

Nothing more than a thought exercise really but it would be interesting to know what Russia would do if they found 10/15 western troops among the dead when they’re clearing out a city.
I think people should move away from thinking in such arbitrary rules. Putin certainly doesn't care for them. If - in general - they want to "find" provocation/justification for something they will, if they don't want to they won't. The West is already hugely involved via sanctions and by supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine and it's not like this is a secret ot Moscow.
 

VorZakone

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If I recall correctly from the FT, WaPo and Guardian, the Ukrainians have 40,000 professional soldiers present in and near the Donbas. So that's excluding volunteers, national guard etc.

I'm not sure what exactly the Russians are expecting but you don't just roll in and wipe out 40,000 men. The Russians will take huge casualties.
 
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Raoul

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Is there a danger of a “straw that broke the camel’s back” narrative here?

One American/UK/French/German soldier feels the call to take up arms and go join the Ukrainian armed forces defending Ukraine. Then another. And another. They’re using western imported/donated weapons and acting on western intelligence.

From a Russian POV, at what point are these people individuals helping Ukraine and at what point are they NATO forces? Is it 1? Is it when a Ukrainian regiment has 10% western troops helping it? 50%?

Nothing more than a thought exercise really but it would be interesting to know what Russia would do if they found 10/15 western troops among the dead when they’re clearing out a city.
No I don’t think there is a problem with it. These are individuals who wanted to join the fight and have nothing to do with NATO.
 

stefan92

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No I don’t think there is a problem with it. These are individuals who wanted to join the fight and have nothing to do with NATO.
It will be a problem the moment Russia decides it want to see it as NATO involvement.

But it doesn't matter, they can see any of the help NATO gives as an act of war and decide to act about it. And definitely weapon deliveries are much more crucial involvements than a few fighters.
 

Raoul

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It will be a problem the moment Russia decides it want to see it as NATO involvement.

But it doesn't matter, they can see any of the help NATO gives as an act of war and decide to act about it. And definitely weapon deliveries are much more crucial involvements than a few fighters.
They still won’t be able to do anything about it since they can’t respond in kind. Putin has also been using mercenaries and other countries like Belarus and Syria to help him, and knows he will have little grounds to complain. His best option will be to capture one or two US or UK third party fighters for a propaganda win.
 

stefan92

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They still won’t be able to do anything about it since they can’t respond in kind. Putin has also been using mercenaries and other countries like Belarus and Syria to help him, and knows he will have little grounds to complain. His best option will be to capture one or two US or UK third party fighters for a propaganda win.
Exactly, the moment Russia acknowledges they are in a hot war with NATO they are expected to fight this war, and they simply can't (except by nuclear escalation)
 

sun_tzu

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Yep, he did and he has been there for around a month now. He posted this photo on his Twitter account too.


He is a former United States Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer with 20 years of service (1981-2001) with a specialization in naval cryptology, which means that he was involved in numerous counter-terrorism, intelligence, and combat operations. That's the kind of special set of skills that would help the Ukrainian forces a lot.
or he's a 60 year old who was a non commissioned naval officer more than two decades ago who is trying to sell his book


from his wiki page

On August 20, 2016, Nance told MSNBC viewers that the Green Party's presidential nominee Jill Stein "has a show on Russia Today."[37] Glenn Greenwald later wrote: "there is no disputing the fact that Nance’s statement was a falsehood, a fabrication, a lie. Stein did not have a show on RT, nor did she ever host a show on RT."[38] Nance also accused Greenwald of being "an agent of Moscow" and "deep in the Kremlin pocket." He also stated that Greenwald "helped Snowden defect" and "reports in to [his] masters in Moscow." Greenwald accused Nance of lying.[38] In 2019, Nance stated to New York Magazine, "I was speaking rhetorically on Twitter... that was in relation to [Greenwald] being in Moscow with Edward Snowden, and having a sit-down with Edward Snowden. And he talked about it on Russia Today."[36]

On August 26, 2021, Nance posted a tweet following a terrorist attack in Kabul, Afghanistan that killed 13 US service members. Nance tweeted "20 YEARS- FYI there have been terrorist suicide bombers killing civilians nearly DAILY in Afghanistan. This ain’t new. It’s why we are leaving. #DealWithIt".[39][40] Nance later deleted the tweet and issued an apology, stating "I would never intentionally disrespect my brothers & sisters in arms. I also sincerely apologize to their families, and I pray for them. ... I posted before there were any serious casualties reported. I should’ve waited."[39]
so yeah im not sure what to make of him but I have by doubts that he is going to be that useful to the ukranian forces
 

Red Rash

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Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."


Source : BBC
 

One Night Only

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or he's a 60 year old who was a non commissioned naval officer more than two decades ago who is trying to sell his book


from his wiki page



so yeah im not sure what to make of him but I have by doubts that he is going to be that useful to the ukranian forces
Anyone who feels the need to advertise that they're helping Ukrainian forces are never going to be great. They're the billy bullshitters of the group's, just there for attention and likes.

The real deals are the guys who just go and do it, no need for all the attention.
 

Peter van der Gea

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Anyone who feels the need to advertise that they're helping Ukrainian forces are never going to be great. They're the billy bullshitters of the group's, just there for attention and likes.

The real deals are the guys who just go and do it, no need for all the attention.
It's not quite cos play though, they are entering a hot war zone. I mean, if you're willing to take a cruise missile on the forehead, you must really want to sell your book.
 

Raoul

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Yep, he did and he has been there for around a month now. He posted this photo on his Twitter account too.


He is a former United States Navy Senior Chief Petty Officer with 20 years of service (1981-2001) with a specialization in naval cryptology, which means that he was involved in numerous counter-terrorism, intelligence, and combat operations. That's the kind of special set of skills that would help the Ukrainian forces a lot.
or he's a 60 year old who was a non commissioned naval officer more than two decades ago who is trying to sell his book


from his wiki page



so yeah im not sure what to make of him but I have by doubts that he is going to be that useful to the ukranian forces

He is a bit of grandstander. His previous role in the military won't be of any help to the Ukrainians given that he left in 2001 and the way the military functions today in terms of technology and methods is very different. Fair play for him putting his neck on the line though.
 

dal

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Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."


Source : BBC
Now I’m really worried.
 

Dans

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Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says.

Asked about the issue in an interview with TV channel India Today, Lavrov says: "Conventional weapons only."

Early on in the war, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces be placed on high alert, and a number of Russian government figures have signalled the country would be willing to use them in certain circumstances.

Lavrov also says, with Russia's offensive now focused on Ukraine's east, the war is entering a new phase, echoing similar comments from the Ukrainian military.

"The operation in the east of Ukraine is aimed, as was announced from the very beginning, to fully liberate the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk and Luhansk republics. And this operation will continue," he says.

"Another stage of this operation is beginning, and I am sure this will be a very important moment of this entire special operation."


Source : BBC
Well this is worrying - usually when the say they won't they will, and when they say they will, they don't.
 

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"A commander of one of the pro-Russian separatists' battalions in the east of Ukraine, Mikhail Kishchik, has been killed. Better known under the nickname Misha the Chechen, Kishchik died as Russian troops and separatists' forces began an assault against the Ukrainian army in the east of the country.

The prime minister of the self-proclaimed Luhansk people's republic (LNR) Sergei Kozlov writes on his social media account: "Sad news from the front line. A patriot of the LNR, Lt Col Mikhail Kishchik has died."

Kozlov adds Kishchik and his comrades were surrounded by Ukrainians close to the town of Kreminna and "fought to the last".

"We are establishing the number of those killed and wounded," he adds.

Kreminna is one of the points on the front line where Russian forces are trying to advance towards the bigger towns of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, held by the Ukrainian troops.

Kishchik and his battalion have been fighting against the Ukrainian forces since 2014. In the early stages of the conflict, he and his fighters were accused of looting residential areas in the Luhansk region.

In 2016, during a lull in the hostilities in the east of Ukraine, a Russian independent newspaper "Novaya Gazeta" published an investigation, naming Kishchik one of the chiefs of a smuggling ring in the east of Ukraine. He never commented on the allegations."
 

Sir Matt

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He is a bit of grandstander. His previous role in the military won't be of any help to the Ukrainians given that he left in 2001 and the way the military functions today in terms of technology and methods is very different. Fair play for him putting his neck on the line though.
Sure, Western militaries and Ukraine's do, but Russia's...:nervous:
 

GlastonSpur

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Some thread this:

This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.
 

MoskvaRed

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This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.
I have no idea what went on in Putin’s head when he started this war but the narrative set out in those tweets does help explain how the state media is able to sell this war (and Euromaidan before that) to the Russian public. In that worldview, Ukraine is the disobedient little brother which pretends it is a different nation with its own language based on historical and literary ”traditions” invented in the 19th century.
 

GlastonSpur

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How Putin died:

https://pastebin.com/7uzUerrN

If Musk, Bill Gates or someone of that ilk want to put up a $2.1 billion bounty on Putin's head ... perhaps it would work. It'd be an awfully big temptation for those around Putin.

However, I'd suggest they put up the bounty anonymously.
 
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stefan92

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This is just a fancy way of saying that Russians think their culture is superior to that of Ukraine, a superiority that gives them to right to force Ukrainians to become Russified, and that this is supposedly the driving force behind the invasion.

There may be some truth in this, but overall I don't buy it as the major factor. For me, the major factor that drove the invasion is the fear of Putin's regime that a free, democratic, independent and westward-looking Ukraine will give ideas to the people of Russia and Byelorussia.
So you think Putin wants to make sure that there is only one pan-Russian way of living in Russia, Belarus and "Little Russia" (as Ukraine is often called there). Sounds to me a lot similar to Galeev's point.
 

GlastonSpur

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So you think Putin wants to make sure that there is only one pan-Russian way of living in Russia, Belarus and "Little Russia" (as Ukraine is often called there). Sounds to me a lot similar to Galeev's point.
Not really, unless you think that Russian culture involves an active desire of most Russians to live permanently under a brutal and corrupt gangster-dictatorship, with no freedom of speech and no access to the internet or anything but state-controlled media, with untold billions siphoned off every year in the pockets of the head-gangsters, widespread press-ganging into the military etc etc.

I don't believe that's what most Russians want, especially not the younger ones.