Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone

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The BBC reports:

"The Ukrainian troops defending the huge Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol may hold out for a long time with guerrilla tactics, using its nuclear bunkers and tunnels, a military expert says.

Justin Crump of security consultancy Sibylline told the BBC "they are really well set for defence", having had more than 50 days to fortify the site and build escape routes.

"I suspect that unless they are wiped out they’ll be there a long time - they could do nasty stuff at night, and go back in."

He estimates as many as 800 fighters are defending the plant, led by the far-right Azov Battalion - a group vilified by Russia as "neo-Nazis".

"The soldiers there don’t want to get captured, I don’t think they'll surrender. And Russia doesn’t want to go in and clear it out metre by metre, underground, that's horrendous," he said.

Ukraine has managed to resupply its beleaguered forces in Mariupol in very risky night-time missions, he said.

The steelworks is a key industrial site and, if Russia does get control of it, "maybe the Chinese will get them back in operation, as they want the steel", Mr Crump said. But it will take years to rebuild devastated Mariupol, he added."
Those defending Mariupol are tough as nails, has to be said. So weird for me to type that from the comfort of my computer while they're in a plant battling it out with overwhelming Russian forces. Bizarre.
 

Carl

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Why do the Russians have such a hardon for Mariupol. What makes it so significant for them?
 

Organic Potatoes

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The BBC reports:

"The Ukrainian troops defending the huge Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol may hold out for a long time with guerrilla tactics, using its nuclear bunkers and tunnels, a military expert says.

Justin Crump of security consultancy Sibylline told the BBC "they are really well set for defence", having had more than 50 days to fortify the site and build escape routes.

"I suspect that unless they are wiped out they’ll be there a long time - they could do nasty stuff at night, and go back in."

He estimates as many as 800 fighters are defending the plant, led by the far-right Azov Battalion - a group vilified by Russia as "neo-Nazis".

"The soldiers there don’t want to get captured, I don’t think they'll surrender. And Russia doesn’t want to go in and clear it out metre by metre, underground, that's horrendous," he said.

Ukraine has managed to resupply its beleaguered forces in Mariupol in very risky night-time missions, he said.

The steelworks is a key industrial site and, if Russia does get control of it, "maybe the Chinese will get them back in operation, as they want the steel", Mr Crump said. But it will take years to rebuild devastated Mariupol, he added."
Vaguely reminiscent of the Battle of Stalingrad except in reverse. The Nazis had pushed through all the way to the Volga and one of the main pockets of Soviet resistance was a large factory area.
 

Tibs

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The weapons that we are sending to Ukraine, are these coming from the existing defence budget? Or are we in effect selling them to Ukraine, or is it something tht tax payer will pay seperately?
 

Organic Potatoes

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Long thread(s) here, but reports of a Ukrainian counterattack east from Kharkiv that would seriously threaten Russian N/S supply lines out of Belgorod. He clarifies below report was from Ukrainian official and not the armed forces. Good news if true.

 

UpWithRivers

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The weapons that we are sending to Ukraine, are these coming from the existing defence budget? Or are we in effect selling them to Ukraine, or is it something tht tax payer will pay seperately?
The tax payer pays the military industrial complex. Ukraine pays it back in the future if/when they can likely by deals such as allowing Shell etc to mine for gas etc. People who own Shell/military complex are the same people. Some elites somewhere
 

cyberman

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Long thread(s) here, but reports of a Ukrainian counterattack east from Kharkiv that would seriously threaten Russian N/S supply lines out of Belgorod. He clarifies below report was from Ukrainian official and not the armed forces. Good news if true.

How is this allowed to be posted? Apparently it’s from a journo who had a chat with a Ukranian official so it’s nothing that should officially be known
 

GlastonSpur

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How is this allowed to be posted? Apparently it’s from a journo who had a chat with a Ukranian official so it’s nothing that should officially be known
Do you mean that it's giving information to the enemy? If so, I'm sure the Russians already know if and where they're being attacked.
 

Organic Potatoes

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How is this allowed to be posted? Apparently it’s from a journo who had a chat with a Ukranian official so it’s nothing that should officially be known
Because if the settlements were retaken part of it has already happened, and the looming threat to Russian supply lines is just an obvious inference.
 

Dr. StrangeHate

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The weapons that we are sending to Ukraine, are these coming from the existing defence budget? Or are we in effect selling them to Ukraine, or is it something tht tax payer will pay seperately?
The correct answer is always that tax payer will be paying for it, rich elites will be benefiting from it.
 

cyberman

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Do you mean that it's giving information to the enemy? If so, I'm sure the Russians already know if and where they're being attacked.
But there’s a bit of strategy there as well added in to what they’re now trying to achieve.
I dunno, seems a bit borderline to me especially when its sort of off the record
 

Roane

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The weapons that we are sending to Ukraine, are these coming from the existing defence budget? Or are we in effect selling them to Ukraine, or is it something tht tax payer will pay seperately?
Wouldn't it be some sort of set up similar to the USA involvement in WW2?

Wasn't it mid 2000's when the UK had made its last payment to USA?
 

DanH

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But there’s a bit of strategy there as well added in to what they’re now trying to achieve.
I dunno, seems a bit borderline to me especially when its sort of off the record
I think we have to accept they know what they wish to release, and have their reasons for it. It wouldn't be unfeasible for this to be thrown out there to mislead the Russian forces. Or it could just be too late to make any real difference.
 

GlastonSpur

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I wonder who took those photos of the ship and how they ended up in the hands of the Ukrainians? I'd have thought that only Russian ships would be be allowed to get close to the scene of the disaster, in which case someone Russian leaked them.

Or maybe the Turkish coastguard was involved in rescuing some of the survivors?
 

nimic

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I wonder who took those photos of the ship and how they ended up in the hands of the Ukrainians? I'd have thought that only Russian ships would be be allowed to get close to the scene of the disaster, in which case someone Russian leaked them.

Or maybe the Turkish coastguard was involved in rescuing some of the survivors?
Novaya Gazeta claims to have seen photographs sent from one of the sailors to his mum. He also apparently told her about conditions on the ship, severed limbs and such. If that got out, there's no reason someone on another ship couldn't have taken photos and sent it to their mum, who showed them to media.
 

Beans

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I wonder who took those photos of the ship and how they ended up in the hands of the Ukrainians? I'd have thought that only Russian ships would be be allowed to get close to the scene of the disaster, in which case someone Russian leaked them.

Or maybe the Turkish coastguard was involved in rescuing some of the survivors?
I believe a Turkish merchant ship responded to an SOS or some such, they would surely all have pulled out their phones for photos.
 

Beans

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Anyone have a link to that twitter thread about Russia actually being low on tanks someone posted? I found this:

"According to an open-source intelligence report that appeared on the Russian Lenta website, the Russian Army has 2,685 main battle tanks (MBT) in its active inventory. While that still is a significant number, reportedly only about 1,200 of those tanksroughly 45 percentare actually new or upgraded tanks produced in 2000 or after.

This recent analysis was in stark contrast to previous reports from the state-run Sputnik news agency, which said that Russia had almost twelve thousand tanks at its disposal."

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-running-out-tanks-170901
 

TMDaines

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Unsettling morning when you wake up to breaking news that your wife”s hometown is being attacked with missiles again. Still very unclear what and where has been hit, but mother-in-law says she could hear each explosion.
 

Rajma

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For those that think Russian ruble has recovered look at the buy/sell spread against USD at the bank branches that began selling (still with restrictions) USD again from today. The official exchange rate is artificial as feck since there’s no liquidity in the market.
 
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GlastonSpur

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She wouldn't say that if it were her free speech being censored, if she faced being sent to to jail for up to 15 years for speaking non-allowed speech, and if the information being blocked/controlled was the kind of "information" that she likes.

Such people are hypocrites. They want dictatorship, but only if the dictator's decrees pander to their personal prejudices and desires. She'd soon be calling for an end to the dictator if the decrees specified the legalisation of gay marriage, the abandonment of Russia's nuclear weapons, and an intention to apply for NATO membership.
 

MadMike

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For those that think that Russian ruble has recovered look at the buy/sell spread against USD at the bank branches that began selling (still with restrictions) USD again from today. The official exchange rate is artificial as feck since there’s no liquidity in the market.
The second pic seems excessive, probably due to dried up liquidity, but 100 ruble spread is basically what I expected anyways. The banks and other financial institutions are not in a rush to sell their dollar reserves and certainly not for anything close to what people believe is the current dollar value of the ruble.
 

MadMike

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I had the same discussion at work yesterday. It sank, how it sank is doesn't matter just as long as it can't be used against civilians.
It might have been the flag ship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, but it’s not the Black Sea fleet. There are many other vessels that are still operational.

How it sank matters in assessing the capabilities of Ukrainian coastal, anti-ship defences. Which in turn might change the planning or tactics of the Russian Navy, with regards to how it approaches the Ukrainian cost and cities like Odessa.