Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

harms

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Wow!
Hopefully they follow through on that threat. Could be the beginning of the end for the madman.
Dagestan is one of the few regions with a really strong horizontal communication (due to a clan-based societal system) and certainly enough fighting spirit (and weapons) to be able to actually do something. I wonder if any police or other enforcement agencies members are going to join the protesters, as almost every family has someone on the inside.
 

MTF

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When the first wikileaks came about, I read a piece about a Dagestani wedding attended by an American diplomat. These people don't feck around.
That was a hilarious cable, I read it a few months ago. It was William Burns, now CIA director and then Amb. to Russia, who wrote it.
 

VorZakone

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Yes Olaf, keep doing the bare minimum to not anger, or God forbid humiliate our dear Putin. I can't remember a worse leadership in Europe than Olaf & Macron duo ever.
Macron doesn't seem too bad in my opinion. Scholz however just comes across so uninspiring and passive.
 

utdalltheway

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There have been plenty of times when marching bands played while troops were sent off to die. It’s what they do when trying to convince other people to do the dying for their leaders.
 

Bosnian_fan

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When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.
 

The Firestarter

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When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.
For France when they bombed Ghadafi. After that they had some deployments in Mali but I am not very familiar with the specifics.
 

Sir Matt

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This is pretty consistent with German policy. They've been willing to sacrifice others for their own financial gain or protection. Merkel would have done the same as Scholz is doing. Knowing that they were strengthening Russia's hand over themselves and Europe, they forged ahead with NS2 and other projects because it was financially beneficial, at the expense of security (theirs and others).

Merkel and Sarkozy's response to inviting Ukraine and Georgia to NATO in 2008 basically gave Putin the green light to march into Georgia since he knew they wouldn't respond.
 

The Firestarter

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That was a hilarious cable, I read it a few months ago. It was William Burns, now CIA director and then Amb. to Russia, who wrote it.
I remember something like "The Rolls Royce is spacious but difficult to sit when there is an AK-47 in your feet"
 

TheReligion

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When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.
Fully understand that point of view
 

frostbite

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What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.
It is a good thing they don't tell us because the West has plenty of weird people who would discuss it to death, no matter what it is. Some would say it is too much, some would say it is not enough and so on. The main idea is that Putin should not use nuclear arms (and nobody else is currently threatening the use of nuclear weapons, not even Kim).
 

JuriM

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Basically, if even half of them would cba enough as the protesters in Iran do, instead to just first this is to save their own skin, then we wouldn't have this war.
 

TMDaines

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There’s nothing odd about it. They’re still under Russian rule, you can’t trust those basic sociological surveys in situations like that. People don’t know who’s asking them questions and a lot of them won’t risk a potential imprisonment for a random someone asking them questions on the street.
The figures don’t surprise me though. You’d have similar chunks of indifference, apathy and ignorance anywhere in the world. It is exactly what the far right or have extremist politicians look to tap into anywhere.
 

Cheimoon

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It's a very dangerous war. Someone may die.

Who voted for this guy???
He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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He such an egghead of a Chancellor. The Bundeswehr is about to receive those new Panther tanks in a much nearer future, so Germany will have to find a way to sell those Leopard 2s anyway.

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.
Macron's predecessor, François Hollande, had the balls to send troops when Mali was being overrun by jihadists. That was about the last time that I saw France doing something that had repercussions on geopolitics and yet it was the right thing to do because the other outcome would be hell. If the big players within the EU don't show more will to stand up for something, don't expect a bright future from it soon.
 

NotThatSoph

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When was the last time France and Germany were factor and had courage to do something?

Ok, Germany one is obvious, but what about France? If I were president of any smaller European state (say for example my country Bosnia) I'd have my fair share of scepticism towards EU. Would look to be ally with UK and USA, perhaps to some extent Turkey and that's it.
Operation Barkhane is almost 10 years old, and is still not done. France is playing around in Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, etc etc. Then you have the bombing of Libya, as already mentioned. Afghanistan, of course.

They get around. Courage isn't a word I'd use, however.
 

stevoc

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What is specific and clear thing the west will do if Putin uses nukes In Ukraine.
There were a few articles last week with quotes where a retired US general speculated on that. In his opinion if Russia used a nuke in Ukraine all Russia's military apparatus and infrastructure in the Black sea, Crimea and possibly the rest of Ukraine could be removed.
 

Don't Kill Bill

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He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.
Doesn't he invite that through voicing his weakness. If you are too scared to send tanks don't send them, but don't go around telling everyone you are not doing it because you are too scared. That makes zero sense.

If you are scared by the nuke threat now then what will Russia ask for after it uses them to not use any more?

This weakness is a sickness being treated as a badge of honour and there is no excuse for it.
 

frostbite

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He obviously means dangerous in the sense of the risk of further escalation. And obviously when voting for Scholz, no-one was considering his possible response to a future Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz is obviously far behind the times psychologically on this issue, but no need to make stuff up.
I was making fun of Scholz, no need to "explain" things. Sure, we know that Scholz is afraid of escalation, in the past 7 months he told us many many times that he is afraid of escalation, now we all know that Scholz is afraid of escalation, and that Scholz will never ever do anything that might be interpreted as an escalation.

I just hope that Scholz called Putin again and explained it to him again in detail, for an hour or more, that he himself (Scholz) will never do anything to escalate, no matter what everyone else is doing. Who knows? ... perhaps Putin is not sure yet that Scholz will never ever do anything to escalate.


Here you are:

"Scholz has launched a diplomatic offensive, aiming to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine and Russia"

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-crisis-olaf-scholz-on-a-delicate-mission/a-60764575

February 13, 2022! He got on the escalation thing early!
 
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little.triangles

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In recent years? He was political all his live, just only started showing it in his lyrics at The Dark Side of the Moon. I suppose it was more socioeconomic commentary until The Wall, but from The Final Cut onwards, it's firmly political as well. I can usually get along with his general points, but I think I very rarely agree on anything specific.
That's exactly it! His words are often vaguely idealistic enough for you to think of him as sensible, but when things get specific you quickly realise he sees the world way too much in black and white.

That one hurt. Stoned me to my soul
There will be days like this!
 

little.triangles

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It's amazing that this line still works on some people a thousand years on. STILL!!!
Unbelievable isn't it? All human progress is illusory. We are never too far away from descending into our baser selves, easily whipped into political or religious frenzy.
 

frostbite

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‘A way to get rid of us’: Crimean Tatars decry Russia’s mobilisation

Members of ethnic group, which has largely opposed Russian rule since 2014, say they are being disproportionately targeted

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...f-us-crimean-tatars-decry-russia-mobilisation


It seems that with this mobilization Putin also hopes for a mini-genocide of various ethnicities inside Russia and Russian held territories, obviously ethnicities that he doesn't like. Two genocides in one, master strategist.

Obviously this is ironic, I hate Putin and all autocrats!
 

B20

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Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.
 

NotThatSoph

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Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.
The population of the Baltic countries combined barely exceeds Denmark, it wouldn't be the most formidable faction.
 

Rajma

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Iranian drones seem to be causing real problems for Ukraine, again, this is only possible due to a slow reaction from the west allowing them to regroup and find solutions.
 

B20

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The population of the Baltic countries combined barely exceeds Denmark, it wouldn't be the most formidable faction.
I know. But they actually get it. Basically I feel we need to strengthen the block within the EU that is north of Germany (as opposed to just blaming it all on EU). Pity Norway aren't in and that Poland are presently fecking up their democracy.
 

Real Name

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Basically, if even half of them would cba enough as the protesters in Iran do, instead to just first this is to save their own skin, then we wouldn't have this war.
While the war was far away and it didnt touch them they were ok, living their cosy lives, now mobilisation is real they realized there's a bloody war out there...
 

stefan92

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Lickspittle. Germany come out of all this with very little good will left in the bank. I'd prefer have Scandinavia form a faction with the baltics in the EU than pally up Germany at this point. They have been, and are, the zero solidarity wing in the EU at this stage. Him and macron.
That's going way to far and you ignore that Scholz is acting absolutely in line with all other western countries. No one has delivered NATO standard tanks to Ukraine, not the US, not the UK, no one. Ukraine has only gotten ex Soviet tanks so far.

So this seems to be a red line for the whole NATO for some reason, whichever it might be. I think it's plausible that there is some secret deal/understanding with Russia to contain the war in Ukraine and I think what Scholz means is that breaking this deal would be a risk for NATO partners (for example Russia took a lot of care not to hit areas visited by Western politicians, to ensure that you need some kind of diplomatic understanding).
 

Revan

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I think the brief was the answer would be “immediate” and with “conventional weapons”, so if I were to guess they just passed Putin the info that a nuclear strike in Ukraine would mean automatic missile attacks on Russia from NATO forces
I would not expect strikes in Russia. I think it will likely mean (in order of possibility):

1) Cutting Russia from everything. Not more sanctions ‘but we buy your oil and gas as much as you sell us at any price’ but a bit like total sanctions on North Korea/Iran with sanctions in other countries (India/China) who still support Russia (or remain neutral).

2) NATO officially entering Ukraine, which means conventional strikes in Russian forces stationed in Ukraine (but not in Crimea).

I think the first one is still more likely cause the second could quickly escalate into full war. I also expect China to say to Russia that nuclear strikes means the end of China’s support. China’s economy is to a large extend based on global stability and they still cannot afford a war with the West (be it economical or military).
 

Revan

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Macron doesn't seem too bad in my opinion. Scholz however just comes across so uninspiring and passive.
I think that France has sent even less weapons than Germany, despite having a significantly stronger army. Macron is all bark but no bite.