I hope this is true
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General Assembly voted back then just to decide which government to recognize (the Taiwan or the China one), but the state with the vote never changed. The government of Taiwan had the vote as the government of China, not that of Taiwan.The other ex-Soviet states agreed, so that probably won't be possible. Though the PRC did take the ROCs position in the council based on the will of the General Assembly, so maybe there's some procedure that means the General Assembly can force it through. I doubt it, though, and it's not happening anyway.
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Seems like a bit of a flawed methodology, no? I'm sure they have access to a lot more Ukrainian footage than Russian footage.The BBC reports:
"Russia has lost more than three times as much military hardware as Ukraine in the first 40 days of the war, according to a military analysis site.
Relying on video and photographic evidence of equipment destroyed, abandoned or captured, Oryx found Russia lost 2,406 pieces of military equipment – including tanks, armoured vehicles and military aircraft - compared with only 677 losses for Ukraine.
To some extent the scale of the losses reflect the larger size of Russia’s military. But they also suggest that Ukrainian forces have, so far, proved to be more effective in combat.
Russian losses appear to be significantly higher right across the board – from combat aircraft to artillery pieces and armoured vehicles.
However, the Oryx tally also suggests Russia has had some success in targeting Ukraine’s air defences. There’s visual confirmation that Ukraine has lost 36 air defence systems, just slightly fewer than the Russian number of 42. These figures don't include shorter-range portable systems, known as Manpads.
Oryx says the amount of equipment destroyed in the war is likely to be significantly higher than its team has documented."
I don't know, but I think they try to take things like this into account when making their assessments. But you'd have to visit the Oryx website to check out the details of their approach.Seems like a bit of a flawed methodology, no? I'm sure they have access to a lot more Ukrainian footage than Russian footage.
As you said, in the end it comes down to the rather philosophical question how much of one's character you interpret as a product of external influences. It's a really difficult topic because chances are we'd be just as indoctrined as they are if we weren't brought up to be self critical and questioning what we're being told. Yet on the other hand this sort of fatalism frees basically everybody from any blame, even Putin.Looks like we mostly agree. However I still think that you overestimate how absurd it has to look to people who just know that world view. In the end we are disagreeing over how much responsibility everyone has to take for such events. I'm happy to keep it that way in this threat, as that opens a whole large philosophical discussion over human nature (like you said).
Nonetheless it looks like the bottom line is, the Russian people won't revolt (soon) against Putin's rule and we can't put our hopes on them. Decisive victory for Ukraine seems to be the only way to end this without a full blown genocide.
Thought they would have more to be honest.Tweet
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Well, they are not claiming anything about the total numbers of equipment lost. They just say "these numbers can be verified based on footage and we don't know how much else was lost/destroyed". So you shouldn't draw to many conclusions from those numbers, except that they are the definite bottom line.Seems like a bit of a flawed methodology, no? I'm sure they have access to a lot more Ukrainian footage than Russian footage.
They don't give any estimates on the effectiveness of the two armies and the unknown numbers. That is purely the interpretation of their numbers done by the BBC, not by the Oryx team.I don't know, but I think they try to take things like this into account when making their assessments. But you'd have to visit the Oryx website to check out the details of their approach.
What do we think Russia's aim in this war is now? They have presumably given up all hope of taking Kyiv or regime change.Tweet
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That’s what I believe their aim is shifting towards, and if they’re able to establish it and then get a peace deal, they’ll claim glorious victory. That said, with recent events, I doubt Ukraine will accept a peace deal. I fully expect Ukraine to turn their military south to break the sieges of Kherson and Mariupol.the land bridge to Crimea
Taking territory of some value in the South East, generally causing more attrition to Ukraine's military, population and infrastructure, putting themselves in a favorable situation for a peace deal that leads to recognition of Crimea as theirs + guarantees of Ukranian neutrality (no NATO) and maybe some limitations to size and equipment of Ukraine's military.What do we think Russia's aim in this war is now? They have presumably given up all hope of taking Kyiv or regime change.
Taking and holding Luhansk & Donetsk Oblasts, Mariupol, Melitopol & maybe Kherson (the land bridge to Crimea), but probably giving up on Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and any other territory.
The cynical answer is that the aim is for the current regime in Moscow to survive (perhaps in a literal sense as well). In a strategic sense, probably that land bridge and therefore full control of the Sea of Azov. Also, to destroy as much of Ukraine as possible so that the EU/US has to fund a massive rebuilding of infrastructure.What do we think Russia's aim in this war is now? They have presumably given up all hope of taking Kyiv or regime change.
Taking and holding Luhansk & Donetsk Oblasts, Mariupol, Melitopol & maybe Kherson (the land bridge to Crimea), but probably giving up on Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and any other territory.
Funnily enough this guy (the article's author) had served as a campaign manager for Arseniy Yatsenyuk's presidential campaign in Ukraine in 2010. One of those politicians in-between right and far-right. Before that he had worked for Kuchma & Yanukovich which is more understandable as those were more Russian-oriented presidents.Jesus. How indoctrined do you have to be to believe this shit. I mean.. even considering how exposed those people were to Putin's propaganda. Surely you have to become skeptical when Ukraine goes from being a Western oriented but still culturally close country with many native Russians living there, maintaining friendships and family bonds with people living in Russia, to Nazi-Germany within a few weeks. You have to be so ignorant to not realize how much the narrative has changed from the beginning of this "special military operation".
Nobody can tell me that those people don't secretely know what is happening but just refuse to admit it to themselves. I assume that those who still support Putin in Russia do so out of cognitive dissonances. Tuning on him would mean acknowledging that you were wrong all along and supported a fascist.
Bit reminiscent of post-WW2 Germans who claimed they never knew what happened. Come on.
He can sell anything as a success. Most people are totally brainwashed and ready to believe any nonsense spouted by authorities.Knowing what happens to civilians, surely there is no way Ukraine will allow Russia any territorial gains beyond Donbas/Crimea?
But then what would Russia have gained in the end? Some neutrality agreement and recognition of the Donbas and Crimea? Can Putin sell that domestically as a success?
That’s very true.He can sell anything as a success. Most people are totally brainwashed and ready to believe any nonsense spouted by authorities.
"We're going to denazify Ukraine".He can sell anything as a success. Most people are totally brainwashed and ready to believe any nonsense spouted by authorities.
Some serious sorrow and pain in the eyes of that second photo. Can't imagine what it would be like seeing your people butchered and killed en masse.Don’t think the guy had much sleep since the war broke out.Tweet
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Sprinkle with some top-noth propaganda and even that would work, because I've never seen Russian society so full of hatred and so lack of common sence."We're going to denazify Ukraine".
"Oh I'm sorry, we couldn't topple the nazi regime in Kyiv so they'll stay in power. And we gained pretty much no more land than we already controlled anyway".
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Sorry, there’s still a Park Inn in the DNR?!
I reckon so. I dunno if that’s a big deal or not thoughSorry, there’s still a Park Inn in the DNR?!
I should find this all sorts of things, but really after dealing with how folks here denied Covid being a thing, I'm not surprised.Tweet
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I have personal experience unfortunately of in-laws reacting in a similar way. Admittedly no-one likes their country being slagged off and portrayed as the bad guy but, in this case, the level of cognitive dissonance is off the scale. I think it goes back to the whole WWII mythology that has been vigorously promoted, particularly in the last 20 years. The idea of Russian soldiers behaving like the bogeyman of 1941-1945 (ignoring the horrendous crimes that took place from 1944 onwards when they reached East Prussia) is simply too much to compute. The most you’ll get is that, if it’s true, they are not Russian but rather Chechen, Dagestani, Syrian etc. If you are being an optimist, I suppose self-delusion is better than actively endorsing such behaviour.Tweet
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Well, on a personal level I can offer one account. My wife’s parents are in Lviv still and have never had plans to flee unless they truly have to. My father-in-law is a triage radiologist and feels a duty to do all he can, even though he is of an age where he can leave Ukraine. My mother-in-law’s parents are close to bedridden: her father had a stroke and can barely move, whilst her mother has had a number of falls. They need care and there’s no social care system in Ukraine to speak off. They are of an age where they will never leave Lviv again. My in-laws leaving Lviv would mean leaving my wife’s grandparents to their fate.I'm wondering, what's holding back Ukrainian civilians (who are close to war areas) from fleeing? For example, those in Bucha, why were they still there when Russia invaded? No resources to flee? No transportation methods?
It's also a bigger question in itself as it relates to all other wars. How come there are always civilians who stay behind and get occupied?
I don't mean to ask the question in a 'victim blaming', I'm just trying to understand how these things happen.
It depends on quite a lof of things, like where they are and what their situation is, age group? Bucha, given it’s location, is obviously problematic. Mass evacuation isn’t easy, especially without proper coordination. Being on the road could easily lead them straight into major conflict zones, they’ll have to stop somewhere to rest, get fuel. Perhaps they didn’t really think the Russians would be killing a shitload of innocent people, and that they would be safer at home.I'm wondering, what's holding back Ukrainian civilians (who are close to war areas) from fleeing? For example, those in Bucha, why were they still there when Russia invaded? No resources to flee? No transportation methods?
It's also a bigger question in itself as it relates to all other wars. How come there are always civilians who stay behind and get occupied?
I don't mean to ask the question in a 'victim blaming', I'm just trying to understand how these things happen.
Thanks, much appreciated for the personal accounts.Well, on a personal level I can offer one account. My wife’s parents are in Lviv still and have never had plans to flee unless they truly have to. My father-in-law is a triage radiologist and feels a duty to do all he can, even though he is of an age where he can leave Ukraine. My mother-in-law’s parents are close to bedridden: her father had a stroke and can barely move, whilst her mother has had a number of falls. They need care and there’s no social care system in Ukraine to speak off. They are of an age where they will never leave Lviv again. My in-laws leaving Lviv would mean leaving my wife’s grandparents to their fate.
Aside from that, virtually everything my in-laws own and know is in Lviv: property, business etc. They are middle class in Ukraine, but their money wouldn’t stretch far here, and don’t speak anything bar Ukrainian or Russian. It’s understandable they probably wouldn’t want to leave lightly.