Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Russians don't have any more military than this really, they're certainly not in on it if it is a ruse. Incompetence is usually a simpler explanation than a grand conspiracy.

Plus preperation on the side of the Ukrainians after 2014. Having US/NATO intelligence and weapons systems have given them a fighting chance, without it maybe the initial convoy gets to Kyiv and this is over weeks ago.
 
Obviously not the case here where everyone follow this closely, but the way news are reported sometimes, highlighting exhaustively every ukranian victory, I think some folks who watch 5 minutes of news a day are expecting the ukranian army to be marching through moscow by christmas.

Yes, but you can't win a war without propaganda, or PR if you wish to soften it, it is also an info war. And I much prefer a benevolent kind that we get in west than what the Russian public gets served. You also have to understand that the eastern European countries, bordering Russia, would descend into collective panic if you'd exhaustively report every Russian victory. I'd say what we get in the news here to keep up the morale, that they are capable of winning the war within Ukrainian borders. I also feel like a lot of it is to ridicule the opponent, which has always been common during war time. And of course, there's some hope that the odd pro-Putin person might get a glimpse of it and, if you can't change their mind, at least demoralize their position a bit.
 
Looks like the Ukrainians have hit something in or near Belgorod (inside Russia) again tonight.

 
It's just going so ridiculously bad for Russia I'm left thinking what if there is an alternative endgame here that doesn't expressly involve Ukraine and it's just the distraction. The west is committing attention, materials and money there. What else are China and Russia doing that we can't see?

That said, the Moskva would be a pretty big sacrifice to make so I'm probably just being an idiot and over thinking things. Wars don't normally go this badly this quickly for an invading force with an overwhelming advantage in men and materials.
See: Russian Invasion of East Prussia, 1914

Never underestimate the Russian’s ability to cock up a numerical advantage with an absolute gulf in quality.
 
See: Russian Invasion of East Prussia, 1914

Never underestimate the Russian’s ability to cock up a numerical advantage with an absolute gulf in quality.

Yep, for all the talk of numerous past wars where Russia has improved after a disastrous start (like the Winter War or WW2), there are also numerous examples of situations where Russia started disastrously and continued on disastrously to the end (Russo-Japanese war, WW1).
 
Exactly, is a representative of germany, a country that made divert UK flights with help to not fly over germany to not anger putin, a coubtry tgat sebt initially 5k helmets and notjing more. A country that was blocking the ban from swift, a country that keeps dumping money to russia kill ukranians vs the perspective to have economic problems. Germany has de right to look for its own interests but zelenski has the right to sent the message of "what are you waiting for to do the right thing".

Is more insulting what germany (and the EU) is doing financing the ukranian genocide than what zelenski did (by far) the same for other conflicts but zelenski has no tine to worry about uiguirs.

Ya for all the talk from the German posters that their country was wronged over the disinvitation from Kyiv, they conveniently forget the multitude, and I mean, multitude of ways that they empowered and continue to empower Russia. Now I don't doubt that the German posters genuinely hope to see Ukraine succeed, it's more about looking at the issue at all angles including your own country before taking issue with others.
 
I still like the theory that Russia actually did not intend to wage war against Ukraine, but that Putin (due to whitewashed intelligence reports) really believed, that Ukraine would simply fall in line and very few people would actually resist.

So yes, I believe in the wording that Russia wanted to conduct a "special military operation", not a war. This became a war because Ukraine being united in their resistance, which came as a shock to the Russians. To me this explains a lot, including the purges of FSB and military leaders.

I don't think this theory is entirely correct. The current operation and battle plan is actually very similar to the operation that the Soviets used to successfully crush Czechoslovakia in 1968. It is not that Putin didn't expect resistance to happen but more so that he underestimated the fighting will and competency of the Ukrainian armed forces and population. While Zelensky portrayed calm and downplayed reports that Russia would invade, his government still rigorously prepared behind the scenes to defend against an attack, if necessary. The Dubcek government did not in contrast.
 


Russian propagandists may think this sort of talk intimidates the West, but really it has only two effects: (a) sharpens Western perception that the Russian state machine is full of crazed ultra-nationalists who absolutely must be defeated; and (b) stirs up further unease amongst ordinary Russians that things are getting way out of hand and heading towards WWIII.
 
Russian propagandists may think this sort of talk intimidates the West, but really it has only two effects: (a) sharpens Western perception that the Russian state machine is full of crazed ultra-nationalists who absolutely must be defeated; and (b) stirs up further unease amongst ordinary Russians that things are getting way out of hand and heading towards WWIII.

I think its largely for domestic consumption that can be used to prepare the Russian public for whatever violence Putin wants to use next.
 
I think its largely for domestic consumption that can be used to prepare the Russian public for whatever violence Putin wants to use next.


It's also to lay the groundwork if he decides to push for a declaration of war so he can use conscripts. The Russians have been talking about attacks in Russia over the last several days, which seems to point in that direction. If the Ukrainians can hold out and stop the Russian advance in Donbas, he'll have to do something to save face.
 
Yes, this is a good point. A Russian version of the Anschluss.



I don't believe they are. Too much historical tension between them. China I would actually suspect of using Russia for resources and to try and damage the west economically or politically before completely double crossing them and I'd assume Vlad to be at least somewhat astute to that possibility.

Why would China want to damage the West? They are so globally integrated economically it would be like cutting the nose to spite the face. Why damage their huge customer base in the West?
China has over $400Billion invested just in Europe alone.
 
Why would China want to damage the West? They are so globally integrated economically it would be like cutting the nose to spite the face. Why damage their huge customer base in the West?
China has over $400Billion invested just in Europe alone.

Global hegemony. When I say weaken I mean in the sense of power and influence politically not economically. Every billion the US government throws into Ukraine could limit their ability to influence other geo-political spheres through their foreign assistance spending. Not necessarily due to a lack of funds but a lack of will to spend more money from Congress. This functions as a way to weaken US foreign policy, especially seeing as there's no longer a Russian agent in the White House and the current President is clearly interested in re-establishing American influence across the world.
 
Global hegemony. When I say weaken I mean in the sense of power and influence politically not economically. Every billion the US government throws into Ukraine could limit their ability to influence other geo-political spheres through their foreign assistance spending. Not necessarily due to a lack of funds but a lack of will to spend more money from Congress. This functions as a way to weaken US foreign policy, especially seeing as there's no longer a Russian agent in the White House and the current President is clearly interested in re-establishing American influence across the world.

On the flip side, you can accuse the US of trying to stop any new emerging powers and protecting its global hegemony. I think it will be the US need to get used to the likelihood of a multi-polar world. Europe now knows that it has to be more independent after this invasion.

There will be the US, China and Europe as the dominant powers going forward.
 
Is that a John Deere in front of it?
Edit well I’ll buy any magic beans that are on offer
The aqua-tractor is indigenous to the Black Sea, I believe there's a full skeleton in the National History Museum in London.

(Edit: I will sell it to you)
 
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Thank you.

From that record everything the UK has promised in terms of hardware is yet to arrive.

This does not surprise me.

I'm half expecting the Ukrainian refugees applying to stay here to be diverted via Rwanda.

Can we resist the reflex to self flagellation on this just once?

I think this is a list of heavy weapons we have only recently decided to send and we don't have the logistics to move them as fast as say the US. We have been training the Ukrainian army through operation orbital since 2015 though. The weapons the Ukrainians had in their hands at the start of this war included thousands of UK anti tank and anti air missiles.

A stich in time saves nine and all that.

Zelenski isn't blocking UK representatives from going to Ukraine or complaining about the UK's lack of help is he? That's telling I think. In fact post Johnson's visit he was praising the level of assistance the UK is providing and actually used us as an example he hoped all of Europe would follow. I know its hard to take in but we might just be doing well in helping here. As unusual as that is.
 
Ukraine's President Zelensky to BBC: Blood money being paid for Russian oil

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61107725

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused European countries that continue to buy Russian oil of "earning their money in other people's blood".

In an interview with the BBC, President Zelensky singled out Germany and Hungary, accusing them of blocking efforts to embargo energy sales, from which Russia stands to make up to £250bn ($326bn) this year.
 
Russia continues to shell its own territories:



These false flags for domestic consumption gives us a hint that a further escalation of the war is inevitable. Likely with the idea of bombing Kiev and full mobilization.
 
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The idea they are fighting against NATO or NATO infrastructure is both hilarious and a convenient excuse for their failures.

They are just fighting against Ukrainian reservists supplied with anti-tank weapons, manpads and night vision goggles and they are still losing. Their lameness knows no end.
 
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I think its largely for domestic consumption that can be used to prepare the Russian public for whatever violence Putin wants to use next.

That's what scares me. I know many will disagree with me but I can see Putin using tactical nukes in the Ukraine.
 
Russia continues to shell its own territories:



These false flags for domestic consumption give us a hint that a further escalation of the war is inevitable. Likely with the idea of full mobilization.


Why do I feel this will go even worse for Russia if they do go for full mobilisation?

First of all, calling reservists quickly becomes a huge drain on the economy. Not only are these people not working and paying taxes, now you also have to pay and feed them. Secondly reservists are largely untrained, less disciplined, harder to motivate (especially in an offensive war) and as a result they suffer higher casualty and desertion rates than the regular troops. That in turn saps morale even more, but it also creates an operational headache for command due to their untrustworthiness.

Sometimes it’s better to know that you have left a flank unprotected and make plans based on that, than believing that it is protected when in fact the battalion of reservists who mans it will flounder and desert the second they start coming under heavy fire.

The war will get bloodier and costlier if they commit reservists. But mostly for Russia. Ukraine is already all in.
 
I think its largely for domestic consumption that can be used to prepare the Russian public for whatever violence Putin wants to use next.

But why is there any need to prepare the Russian public when most of them only know what the state-controlled media (which is now all of the media) allows them to know?

If he wanted to, Putin could use a tactical nuke on Kyiv and then use the state-controlled media to deride all Western claims about is as just more fake news.
 
But why is there any need to prepare the Russian public when most of them only know what the state-controlled media (which is now all of the media) allows them to know?

If he wanted to, Putin could use a tactical nuke on Kyiv and then use the state-controlled media to deride all Western claims about is as just more fake news.
Russia still isn't at war officially, which would result in a lot of different rules, mobilizing reservists etc. This is about preparing the Russian people for that.
 
But why is there any need to prepare the Russian public when most of them only know what the state-controlled media (which is now all of the media) allows them to know?

If he wanted to, Putin could use a tactical nuke on Kyiv and then use the state-controlled media to deride all Western claims about is as just more fake news.

The Russian public will have a breaking point. You can only hide what is really going on to an extent. I can guarantee that the pressure is growing on the Russian leadership.

Western news of their atrocities and losses is leaking in, of that I am sure. I have talked on the phone with two former colleagues from Russia, both were pro Putin just 2 years ago, this war has completely changed their view. They are disguisted by what's going on and never believed it would come to this.

This is the end of Putin according to them, l just hope he is removed from power before he does something even worse than what we have already seen.
 
That's what scares me. I know many will disagree with me but I can see Putin using tactical nukes in the Ukraine.

Don't agree.
He and his generals have already scaled back on their invasion plans.
They know now that the objective is to take as much territory in the East of Ukraine.
And Putin will be able to claim victory with that. And they don't need to escalate to anything like the use of tactical warheads.

They have been and increasingly are suffering heavy losses.
The deployment of tactical weapons will not get them any closer to victory and will invite retaliation from the West.
He is looking for a way out, not an escalation.
 
But why is there any need to prepare the Russian public when most of them only know what the state-controlled media (which is now all of the media) allows them to know?

If he wanted to, Putin could use a tactical nuke on Kyiv and then use the state-controlled media to deride all Western claims about is as just more fake news.

To prepare them for a wider conflict that is no longer an ”operation” but a full on war. He obviously needs a “provocation” to do that, and the narratives by the clowns on the propaganda shows are greasing the skids for the public to buy into what they are saying. It’s just a more perverse version of what happens on Fox News when Trump’s White House wanted to push a narrative Republican voters who watch Fox would buy into. In both instances, propaganda specifically intended to influence a core audience.