That is what Russia said about Japan before Mukden in that cold winter of early 1905. I hope you read deep enough about that battle because, unlike what popular views of that war might be, the Japanese army at that particular time was exhausted, starved, outnumbered, outgunned and severely depleted because of the heavy casualties taken during the (finally successful) siege of Port-Arthur. Nevertheless, the Japanese generals knew that they had to attack and to win decisively in a very narrow window of opportunity as the alternative would have meant a guaranteed defeat should the Russian army have received reinforcements from Western Russia. So the Japanese went all in, outflanked and encircled the main Russian force, forced a massive Russian retreat and then finished off the remnants inside the pocket justwest of Mukden, all before that window of opportunity closed.
Regardless of how tactics and technology have evolved since 1905, the old Swedish proverb that says "attack is the best defense" still holds its meaning in the art of war when the window of opportunity is there. After reading that two-part article in the Washington Post, I personally feel that many Ukrainian generals have been far too cautious and thus missed their window completely, which is a big reason why the counteroffensive failed. The other reason is the massive waste of valuable UA resources, namely seasoned soldiers while defending Bakhmut, for which the article seems to indicate it was due to pressure from Zelensky's office.
Someone someday will have to go all in and then force a breakthrough to finish this war, just like the Japanese of the previous century did. I only hope the Ukrainian generals will not mess around if such an opportunity arises.
The comparison seems to be popular on the internet, but I see where you're coming from. Just with a small difference: the Japanese army wasn't on life support and depending on the whims of the nations providing, well all the military equipment, so it could act as it saw fit, when it saw fit. You forget that Japan was wiping the floor with Russia since the war began and the two armies were fairly even in terms of numbers and material, which is absolutely not the case here. The Japanese were also better equipped than the Russians and their high command levels above the Tsar's. You can nitpick one battle were the Japanese were in a real pinch and only had their superior tactics and better trained, fanatical soldiers to bail them out, but the fact is that they absolutely mauled the Russians left, right, and center on land as well as at sea, from the beginning to the end of the war. Can't see the same situation in Ukraine.
Back to 2023, the Russian lines of defense are so deeply layered, that there was no chance of breaking through without considerable air and armored support and a massive amount of bodies. The spring counter-offensive reminds me more of Operation Citadel rather than the Battle of Mukden in the sense that the Russians, alongside basically the whole world, knew months in advance what was going to happen and had all the time in the world to prepare their defenses. Many military experts saw the failure coming a mile off, given that the Ukrainians simply didn't have enough tanks, airplanes, soldiers, and not even the element of surprise, to achieve their objectives.
After their initial heavy blunders, and there were many, the Russians decided to shorten the front, go defensive, hang onto what they already had, and let the Ukrainians put their best forces through the meat grinder, since attrition heavily favours Russia. Unless NATO and the US go all in, which I highly doubt, it will end only one way.
