I don’t think there’s that much awareness of the difficulties for Ukrainians to come to the UK, unless people are actually trying to get here. People will generally go down the path of least resistance or where they have existing contacts.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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But I don’t think it’s their competence that has changed significantly between the 70s and now. The difference is in the opponent. Ukraine is better armed, trained and seemingly united in the fight against Russia.
It probably hasn’t, but at least they somewhat managed expectations to prepare themselves for a 9 year protracted conflict in Afghanistan, whereas they anticipated conquering Ukraine in a few days. There were wild failures for the Russians in every category from intel to logistics to morale to the lack of an NCO corps to having a unified command and control and beyond. Naturally, some of that has to do with the Ukrainians and those who armed them, but the Russians appear to have nonetheless taken a significant step backward since the Crimea invasion.
Not that it helps Ukraine, but this has been an interesting by-effect of the war. Poland has had to realize that it's part of the EU or stands alone, and that might soften their combative stance within the EU. This action towards Hungary kinda suggests that as well - while Hungary seems not to have sensed this wind of change (yet).
It can still all play out in all kinds of ways of course, but it's an interesting development.
This was a bit of a lightbulb moment for me in understanding why some in Ukraine and elsewhere held these views which I couldn’t get my head around.
Good post, I hope someone brings this up within the legislature.
But... but... the rouble is doing so well....
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I did not like Boris Johnson in the past, but I have to admit that he had the guts to walk on the streets of Kiev during such a war. It is a good thing to go there and show support. I hope the German Chancellor, the French President, the Italian PM and other elected heads of state from Europe, do the same soon! Yes, I know it is "just PR" for some people, but if I was a simple Ukrainian citizen I'd take heart from such a show of support.
Get the Germans head of state in Kyiv and promise huge military support.
If they don’t they could be next in Putins crosshairs.
tbh I’m not sure what kind of stupidity the Germans have allowed; 1st they plan for dependence on Russian energy supplies and then say all refugees welcome. None of that makes sense.
Wtf are they doing over there?
If they don’t they could be next in Putins crosshairs.
tbh I’m not sure what kind of stupidity the Germans have allowed; 1st they plan for dependence on Russian energy supplies and then say all refugees welcome. None of that makes sense.
Wtf are they doing over there?
EU and NATO cannot send their air force, they cannot send ground forces, they cannot send advanced missile systems that require a lot of training ... but they can definitely enforce a full and complete embargo. Everything Russian included. All banks. All Energy. Materials. All companies. Everything!
Yes, I know it is not easy, but people are dying, the Russians are bombarding some cities for 6 weeks. What exactly do we need for a complete embargo?
Some people were calling for NATO to enforce a no fly zone. Why aren't more people demanding a full embargo? Do it right now please!
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424
'Real embargo on Russian energy could end Ukraine war'
By Jonathan Josephs
Business reporter, BBC News
A "real embargo" on Russian energy by Western countries could stop war in Ukraine, President Putin's former chief economic advisor has suggested.
Dr Andrei Illarionov said Russia "did not take seriously" other countries' threats to reduce their energy usage.
Despite trying to reduce its reliance on Russian sources, Europe is continuing to buy oil and gas.
Last year, soaring prices meant oil and gas revenues accounted for 36% of Russia's government spending.
Much of that income comes from the European Union, which imports about 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil from Russia.
This week, its top diplomat Josep Borrell said "a billion [euros] is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he supplies us".
Yes, I know it is not easy, but people are dying, the Russians are bombarding some cities for 6 weeks. What exactly do we need for a complete embargo?
Some people were calling for NATO to enforce a no fly zone. Why aren't more people demanding a full embargo? Do it right now please!
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61040424
'Real embargo on Russian energy could end Ukraine war'
By Jonathan Josephs
Business reporter, BBC News
A "real embargo" on Russian energy by Western countries could stop war in Ukraine, President Putin's former chief economic advisor has suggested.
Dr Andrei Illarionov said Russia "did not take seriously" other countries' threats to reduce their energy usage.
Despite trying to reduce its reliance on Russian sources, Europe is continuing to buy oil and gas.
Last year, soaring prices meant oil and gas revenues accounted for 36% of Russia's government spending.
Much of that income comes from the European Union, which imports about 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil from Russia.
This week, its top diplomat Josep Borrell said "a billion [euros] is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he supplies us".
Germany is getting a lot of flack in this thread some deserved and some less so.
Anyway, Merkel's strategy wrt to Russia has been to foster peace via building financial interdependence. That she thought would be a deterrent to aggression and would also open Russia more to Europe. The idea being that long term peace needed a friendly to Europe Russia. In principle it doesn't seem crazy. They potentially also wanted to dangle the carrot of EU membership to promote democracy, human rights and rule of law in Russia.
At the same time they were securing their industry with cheap Russian gas. So two birds with one stone. Yes, it has proven a bad strategy in hindsight but you know what they say, hindsight's always 20/20. Putin has become increasingly bitter, resentful and revanchist with age. Would keeping Russia at an arms length have been better? Maybe, perhaps. It might have brought things to a head sooner too.
Germany has had a very welcoming stance to immigrants and refugees post-war. They invited literally millions to help rebuild the country and they took a million Syrian refugees when it wasn't even their responsibility. This openness to Ukrainians is not new or unprecedented.
As a person who has been waiting to host a Ukrainian family for nearly a month now (and is still waiting), I fecking hope so. Just a mere mention of Priti Patel and our policy towards Ukrainian refugees (and refugees in general) is enough to make me incandescent with rage.
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agree with most of your post, but what the heck do you mean when you say "to help rebuild the country"?
Germany needed a rebuild post-war. It's not a secret, is it? How many immigrants came for the Reconstruction of Germany
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I also believe this would have happened anyway. Putin is acting on false information and a more isolated and bitter Russia might have attacked even earlier. It was probably further evidence of Western greed for Putin though and that's what he thought would divide the West and NATO. But that's not just on Germany. Greed is omnipresent in almost all decision making in moderb politics in Europe and the US.
Maybe in a few years we look back and say that it was generally a good thing to trade with Russia (maybe not to this extent but still) because that way the sanctions really hurt and thr Russian people got a taste of what Western luxury and freedom feels like, who knows.
I believe the biggest mistake was to ignore the military. One the very few points Trump got right. But even this would probably not have deterred Putin. I thought so in the beginning but the information that has surfaced ever since suggests the whole information flow in Russia is a mess, so facts didn't really matter. This war was started based on false information and out of sentiment first and foremost. It was a consequence of a corrupt system so I doubt that any external influence could have prevented it.
Good posts with a lot of valid points, dudes
The guy with the CCCP top and the kid with the army uniform crack me up the most.
Can we stop with this idea that not buying Russian oil and gas is only a good policy in hindsight. We knew Putin was using the money he made supplying Europe to re-arm. That was never going to be a good idea. The US told Germany that and Germany carried blindly on with a policy which was not working and was very dangerous for countries bordering Russia.
There is a thing called contingency planning. This is about foresight and while you can't know the future you can at least base your plans on reasonable assumptions and be prepared to act when there are obvious developing threats. Other countries did this.
After 2014 and the general drift in Russian outlook, to still be this heavily dependent on their oil now is a dereliction of duty.
The Ukrainians probably can't win this war if the EU keeps funding Putin through gas and oil contracts. The longer the war goes on the longer Germany's position becomes untenable.
Probably but I again, I can sympathise. The policy of a de-militarised Germany with a small (for the size of economy/country) and defensive only military, precedes Merkel. The ghosts of two worlds wars hang heavy in Germany. Quite a few people I have spoken to, especially older generation, seemed very wary of seeing a Germany as militarised as... say the US.
And yes on the other hand Trump was right, that Germany was avoiding to pay the costs for European defence and relying mostly on America to be the shield. Although I'm not sure he wanted Germany to arm but instead to pay America for it. There's one more thing to consider as well. For a lot of Eastern Europeans the Americans are seen as more... reliable in terms of allowing them to build bases in your country to potentially help defend it. On the basis that they never had any territorial interest in Europe. Would the Poles and the Baltics be happy to have German bases in their country if America pulled out. Maybe, if in need, but I figure less so than having Americans.
Over 40 days into the war and the Chechen troops have still not learned how to aim with a rifle.
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The UK posters may have a shock when they realise how much oil they get from Russia whether directly or indirectly. Not to mention Gold and Precious Metals.
You're free to do as you want, but I can't because it doesn't pass a basic logic test. Most of the money Russia/Putin made went to Oligarchs and the kleptocratic state. As evidenced from their shambles in Ukraine, very little went to arming and modernising their army. All their kit is really old Soviet kit. No new tanks, jets or missiles there. This re-arming you speak of, never really happened. Hence why everyone is speaking of a paper tiger.
However yes, they should have started planning for energy contingency since 2014 at least.
Will they?
- "Russian imports account for 8% of total UK oil demand"
- "The UK is not dependent on Russian natural gas, making up less than 4% of our supply. "
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-phase-out-russian-oil-imports
I don't know about gold or precious metals but also not sure if the wider industry (aside form jewellers that is) is in any way dependent on those.
UK are one of if not the largest gold importers and exporters in the world and part of that come from Russia.And it's not just jewellery.
Regarding oil, I also said indirectly. Sold through other countries. Also this idea that only Russian ships deliver Russian oil is grossly misleading.
Buttstock not even planted on the shoulder, rifle swinging wildly from the recoil, no target in sight. feck me, I am an IT guy who did 1 month of infantry training as part of my national service and I learned how to shoot a rifle. And I wasn't even in the infantry. These muppets are supposed to be in a warzone too. What a shambles...
I believe those figures include indirect sales. The page speaks of Russian oil imports, which implies Russian oil whichever way it gets here, not imports directly from Russia only. Care to list your sources?
Going by the figures you posted from the government website, they are only direct. They quote the Netherlands as a major source, the largest supplier of refined petroleum to the Netherlands is Russia ; The top three suppliers of refined petroleum to the UK are Netherlands, Russia and Belarus; Wonder where the Belarus supply comes from.
Sorry - I misread and therefor misunderstood your post. I thought you meant Germany needed the 2015 (and later on) refugees to rebuild modern Germany. You're absolutely right in that regard, my apologies.
Regarding this specific topic, though, I have to say that there are very few countries on this continent (maybe even planet?) that manage migration as bad as Germany did in its whole history. It's a gigantic debacle and one of the weirdest and least understandable selfmade issues I've ever seen by a country that important. Absolutely catastrophic. But that's not for this thread, I guess.
I generally understand the approach Germany had regarding Russia, mainly for the same reasons you mentioned. Around 10 years ago, Russia seemed like an important partner, especially tradewise, and very dangerous to alienate. When Merkel was in charge and the german-russian relationship was getting better and better, it seems like the most reasonable and logical approach. This course should have been corrected after Russia annexed the Krim, though. In hindsight, it's very difficult to understand why the international community acted as soft, as it did. 2017 was Trump's year, which led to Germany being forced to start looking for other allies, than the US. There was a general sentiment in our society that the US can't be reliable partners, which resulted in more and more people accepting that we were looking towards russian energy.
I still want to point out that Germany is really not as dependant on russian gas, as some people make us out ot be. Looking at actual statistics, it's a significant portion but by no means catastrophic.
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Is this even true? I keep hearing this but the Ukrainians keep asking for it. So what they just want weapons they cant use? Are they going to stand in the battle field reading a manual? Im pretty sure if they are asking then they can use them. It all seems half arsed at the moment. Yeah there is a lot of sanctions and a lot of aid including weapons but we havnt gone all out. Which begs the question why? Because Im not buying this excuse that they just dont know how to use the weapons excuse.
Supposedly in the panic of war most people don't really aim properly and tend to just fire somewhere in the general direction. I guess it's because aiming calmly means your head is potentially exposed to getting shot at whereas firing wildly round the corner should mean you're still largely in cover. I think I read that in WW2 they reckoned it was only about 1 in 5 that aimed properly.
I doubt the Russians have depots in Ukraine so its either Crimea or mainland.
Yes, it’s true.
“A Patriot missile battery usually has about 90 U.S. soldiers attached to it. Each system includes a phased array radar, a control station, and eight launchers, each of which can hold four missiles. Patriot “is the only operational air defense system that can shoot down attacking missiles,” according to the Army.
It would likely take months to train the Ukrainian military how to operate the system, according to people familiar with the technology.”
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/03/why-us-wont-give-patriot-interceptors-ukraine/363042/
Missile defense systems from former Soviet countries that are now in NATO can be supplied, and have been… i.e. the S-300 system.
Where are they asking for planes they cant fly or SAMs they are not trained to use?
Patriot's true effectiveness remains somewhat of a mistery. Maybe the very last iteration is capable , but the Saudis cant seem to cope with the Houthi missiles. Either way isnt THAAD better? As for combat tested systems Iron Dome has to be the best one, it can even shoot down artillery I believe.
I’m just showing it as an example of “yes, there are systems that they simply cannot use in the field”.
Iron Dome in Ukraine would be great, but the Israelis were a hard no on that because they feared Russian anger at them for sending it.
Again, can you list some sources please.
The UK is not a mass producer of refined oil. We do the refining ourselves and import mostly crude. Belarus and the Netherlands are nowhere near the biggest sources.
