SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

The Purley King

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There will be a run on the shops though. People buying three times what they need, unless the shops themselves prevent this from happening.
Who was it that said any civilisation is 3 meals away from anarchy?
It’s frightening now but on a purely academic level it’ll be interesting how things progress.
 

SCP

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For those who posted nonsense like a nothing virus, more and more restrictive measures being taken in Portugal. Tomorrow Universities closed in Lisbon and Coimbra, not all, added with public schools, libraries, museums, etc. Can we stop with nonsensical posts like nothing virus or it’s only like the flu please? We don’t need to be experts to know this isn’t as simple like that. I wonder what next. Oh and outside Asia and Europe I want to see how this will develop in the United States. Certainly not like Trump predicted.
 

11101

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Absolutely. They are doing as bad as the other states, just that they started earlier. Entire Europe/US is gonna be in the same scenario soon.

I wonder how is the situation in South America / Africa, and why so few infected people? Not reported, not much travel going on, or really the warm weather is gonna save us.
I do think the UK is faring better.

Case increase over the last 5 days:

Italy - 138%
France - 233%
Spain - 337%
Germany - 242%
Switzerland - 259%

UK - 177%

Italy's numbers are skewed by the fact we have so many cases here, so comparing the increase when we first passed 1,000 cases - 252%
 

Wibble

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True, but not many people have been working on it. SARS was essentially eradicated so there was no economical benefit on actively doing research on it. For this one, people will be working, so I guess it is likely that an effective vaccine will be discovered within next year.

However, I read that won't necessarily be enough. Apparently, the world has a capacity of 900 million doses per year or so (not sure how reliable), so even if a vaccine is found, probably not everyone (or even the majority) will get vaccinated.

I guess the strategy is hope for a miracle (which could be costly like Spanish flu, or not that costly like swine flu). The worst case is if this becomes endemic and attacks us every year. Maybe it is mother's Nature solution to global warming.
I think it remaining in the pool of colds that circulate is highly likely at this stage but like flu a limited immunity will build up in the world's population which will reduce the impact especially if we get a vaccine.
 

Ubik

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So my wife treated a patient about 10 days ago that had been in Beijing a week prior.

She now has come down with symptoms of a fever, runny nose, cough with phlegm, and mild respiratory trouble.

Yay
Runny nose is supposedly not one of the usual symptoms, and they say it's a dry cough. Not that that's any reason not to take precautions, of course, just a heads up.
 

Flamingo Purple

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I do think the UK is faring better.

Case increase over the last 5 days:

Italy - 138%
France - 233%
Spain - 337%
Germany - 242%
Switzerland - 259%

UK - 177%

Italy's numbers are skewed by the fact we have so many cases here, so comparing the increase when we first passed 1,000 cases - 252%
Slightly contradicts the theory that the arrival of warm weather will help.
 

Revan

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I think it remaining in the pool of colds that circulate is highly likely at this stage but like flu a limited immunity will build up in the world's population which will reduce the impact especially if we get a vaccine.
Yes, that is very possible.

I wonder why Spanish flu and swine flu (both occurrences of H1N1) 'miraculously' went away. Of course, this is a totally different virus, but would be great if it goes away on its own.
 

Paxi

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Paddy's day parade in Belfast is cancelled too.
 

spiriticon

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I’d say you have a lot of control looking left and right and choosing to take a step out into the road. (If you dont I apologise for not realising your disability).
You're also in control of how many people you meet and shake hands with.

In this analogy, the virus is the car that is coming to hit you. It may hit you, it may brake just in time. You have no control over it. But it's still better for you to look before you cross.
 

The Purley King

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Thanks, also thanks @Hugh Jass
I don’t read much non fiction and am pretty sure I heard it on a tv show but every day is a school day for me!
It’s only recently I’ve stopped to think how potentially fragile things are. Despite hundreds/thousands of years of no Armageddon it really is 24h away maybe.
A nice soothing thought to go to kip with anyway...........
 

Wibble

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Unfortunately, you are wrong. It is 0.007 or 0.7%, 7 times higher than that of seasonal flu.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And there figures for the proportion of those with the illness who need ICU treatment is about the same as elsewhere which means that as little as 1% of the population infected at any one time will overwhelm our ICU capacity - once at capacity things only get worse until the death/recovery numbers exceed the number getting sick and requiring ICU treatment. This is why containment is so vital.
 

montpelier

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The fatality rate in South Korea is 0.007%, the closest to seasonal flu, despite it having 7K+ cases.
This gives hope that with proper measures, the death rate could be minimized.

The cure rate there is not hight yetthough 2.2%, but of the currently active cases 7259, only 36 are in serious/critical condition.

I care more about the fatality rate.The spread is harder to control imo.
Figures are variable all round, for various reasons. But a big one is that there are/may be 2 strains. And who/where gets what is unclear.

Very good news too, if the less dangerous strain becomes dominant.
 

DOTA

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Figures are variable all round, for various reasons. But a big one is that there are/may be 2 strains. And who/where gets what is unclear.

Very good news too, if the less dangerous strain becomes dominant.
The idea here is that if there was a less dangerous strain and we all got it, it would be like a vaccine in that we'd then be immune from the dangerous one?
 

Carolina Red

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Runny nose is supposedly not one of the usual symptoms, and they say it's a dry cough. Not that that's any reason not to take precautions, of course, just a heads up.
Runny nose is definitely on the symptoms list put out by the WHO and CDC.

The cough was dry. It just started producing phlegm today while I was at work.
 

Revan

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Figures are variable all round, for various reasons. But a big one is that there are/may be 2 strains. And who/where gets what is unclear.

Very good news too, if the less dangerous strain becomes dominant.
The most aggressive one is found on 70% of infected, with the less (and original) strain being found in the remaining 30%.

To be fair, this is weird, the less dangerous one should be the dominant one (in this way the virus can spread better).
 

montpelier

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People thinking this isn't a potentially very bad situation need to wise up, seriously.
 

montpelier

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The most aggressive one is found on 70% of infected, with the less (and original) strain being found in the remaining 30%.

To be fair, this is weird, the less dangerous one should be the dominant one (in this way the virus can spread better).
Ah, right. Ta.
 

Hugh Jass

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Thanks, also thanks @Hugh Jass
I don’t read much non fiction and am pretty sure I heard it on a tv show but every day is a school day for me!
It’s only recently I’ve stopped to think how potentially fragile things are. Despite hundreds/thousands of years of no Armageddon it really is 24h away maybe.
A nice soothing thought to go to kip with anyway...........
I went a bit deeper and some are also saying it is trotski and others. You know how the internet is with quotes.

Some writer had also said: every dog is two meals away from being a wolf. Which is a take on it.
 

Heardy

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So in China it started real REAL bad. Am I right I’m saying it has/is slowing there?! It’s not like China cases/deaths are continuing to increase at the same rate Italy now is.

Does that mean containment is working/can work?
 

Gambit

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Nice to see Boris imitating his hero, the mayor from Jaws,
 

Acole9

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Find all the ‘lost year’ and ‘write off’ comments almost as baffling as the general panic and worry that people are going to die. We all die. Some naturally, some in tragic circumstances. Some way too soon, some probably way too long.

I don’t understand people wanting to halt absolutely everything in life because they hope it’ll get better. It’s such an odd way to live your life, worried about things you have no control over.
Bang on the money, best post I've seen in this thread by some stretch. You can't just stop everything. People over here won't put up with that, no one in this country likes to be told what to do.
 

Redplane

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Yes, that is very possible.

I wonder why Spanish flu and swine flu (both occurrences of H1N1) 'miraculously' went away. Of course, this is a totally different virus, but would be great if it goes away on its own.
Thing is - it didn't. Flu shots right now are still trivalent and quadrivalent and still include H1N1 after all these years because it's still around:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/quadrivalent.htm

I was diagnosed with Influenza A myself two weeks ago.
 

Revan

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So in China it started real REAL bad. Am I right I’m saying it has/is slowing there?! It’s not like China cases/deaths are continuing to increase at the same rate Italy now is.

Does that mean containment is working/can work?
Yes.

It was worse than in Italy, but the lockdown has worked (for a few days in a row, the number of infected people is under 100, with each day lowering). Essentially (and slightly simplified) if the number of infected people in a day is higher than the number of infected people in the previous day, it means that the increase is exponential, and the situation will go beyond control soon. If it is lower, then it means that the worst has passed, and the disease is geting contained. China went from a few thousand infected people per day to only 40, so they are doing a great job, and you can expect soon the cases to reach 0*.

* Probably not, cause in the end, the world is dynamic, and there is movement between China and the other countries. However, in a few weeks, the Chinese will get worried if someone travels there from other countries (cause it might be infected), rather than the other way around.
 

Carolina Red

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Is it best if they self isolate?
That’s what she’s doing. I’m just hoping I don’t get whatever she’s got.

To get tested in SC, she’d have to go the hospital and go into quarantine until the SC Dept of Health could get a kit up here to test her... and then if positive, they’ll keep her quarantined until she’s asymptomatic... which will be a sizable hospital bill, even though the hospital is her employer.

(If anybody needed more proof that our system is broken)
 

Phil

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@Arruda How is the situation at the moment in Portugal and if you know, particularly Lisbon? My 84 year old Grandma has decided she needs to go home and is flying back Wednesday. I'm scared shirtless, she doesn't seem to care.
 

Revan

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Thing is - it didn't. Flu shots right now are still trivalent and quadrivalent and still include H1N1 after all these years because it's still around:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/quadrivalent.htm

I was diagnosed with Influenza A myself two weeks ago.
I had no idea about it. So, whoever got the flu shot, didn't get H1N1 in 2009?

To be fair, the 2009 version of it was milder than the normal flu. It is crazy how much these viruses mutate though (the 1918 version had a mortality rate of 0.1, while the 2009 version, had only 0.0005 mortality rate).
 

Adamsk7

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The most aggressive one is found on 70% of infected, with the less (and original) strain being found in the remaining 30%.

To be fair, this is weird, the less dangerous one should be the dominant one (in this way the virus can spread better).
This is completely untrue. Also the “two strains” thing has got a LOT of stick from actual credible sources. That one Chinese document is not the basis for facts that you seem to be certain of, especially considering it was from 100 people. Please, please, only say factual information.

The is NO information on the severity of disease between mutations (which is what a virus does by the way ).Only that the “S” type came first, then the “L” type, but the L type actually was seen less after January in that study.
 

Revan

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This is completely untrue. Also the “two strains” thing has got a LOT of stick from actual credible sources. That one Chinese document is not the basis for facts that you seem to be certain of, especially considering it was from 100 people. Please, please, only say factual information.

The is NO information on the severity of disease between mutations (which is what a virus does by the way ).Only that the “S” type came first, then the “L” type, but the L type actually was seen less after January in that study.
I just said what I read on that study (which yes, I should have added that it is just an unconfirmed study at this point). Point taken though, thanks for the advice. :)