Sean Longstaff

[bond19821982]

I dont understand the problem in this signing. Its a no risk business at 25m . If it doesn't work out, we will sell him close to that amount. Worst case - probably at a loss of 20m. We got to start taking risks like this as the prices will sky rocket the moment they have a decent season.

Funny thing is people complain that we should have got Maguire from Hull or Maddison from Championship but when we actually try it they complain.
Some people are better off where they are - like commenting in internet.

 

[AJ10]

You think I am being unfair because I compared him to current United players?

I am not a fan of using stats while missing context specially with a young player, for example most of his playing has been vs good teams while playing for Newcastle, I wouldn't be surprised to see pogba's stats being meh vs those teams and it isn't a long enough sample size to conclude anything IMO.

 

[andersj]

You think I am being unfair because I compared him to current United players? I did that because those are the players almost everyone on this forum would know and would understand what I meant when I said he was a worse or better than them at certain things. However if you want me to compare him to players at other weak teams I can do that instead.

Same metrics as before but comparing Longstaff with 30 year old Dale Stephens at Brighton. Stephens is a very average, journeyman midfielder who has spent most of his career in the lower leagues:

Stephens was the better passer. More accurate overall and he played more long range passes while both have the same low key pass rate.

Stephens was comfortably the better defensive player. More tackles, more interceptions, dribbled past less. Longstaff did concede fewer fouls though.

Longstaff beat Stephens in rate of bad touches while Stephens beat Longstaff in rate of getting tackled. So the one area that I thought was clearly an advantage to Longstaff when compared to current United players is a tie here.

Overall Dale Stephens was a lot better than Longstaff last season. Please remember that Brighton were a worse team than Newcastle last season and only just escaped relegation so if you thought I was being unfair on Longstaff because of his team before then I gave him an advantage this time.

If your stats tells you that Dale Stephens is a better passer than Ruben Neves, you should probably consider if you use the stats correct.

Evaluating a player passing based on stats is more complex than some in here make out. Even more so for a defensive midfielder. There is a lot of statistics you could use. In my opinion key passes gives limited information/value. I like xgbuildup90, but that too obviously favour players playing for a good, high-scoring team and must be used correctly.

There are quite a few in here who struggle to put numbers in a meaningful and relevant context.

 

[Ekeke]

Right, because playing for United and Newcastle is the same thing.

Not sure which stats you're talking about as he had 4 goals and 1 assist.

The stats being talked about obviously. Whoscored's stats.

So according to their formula, Newcastle's players performed better than ours. But ours obviously ended up with a lot more points

 

[Adnan]

Good posts @andersj

 

[AJ10]

The stats being talked about obviously. Whoscored's stats.

So according to their formula, Newcastle's players performed better than ours. But ours obviously ended up with a lot more points

As I said playing for United and Newcastle are completely different, looking at stats in isolation doesn't mean anything.

 

[haram]

WhoScored ratings...

 

[Irishman]

Has there been any credible link to this guy?

 

[Ekeke]

As I said playing for United and Newcastle are completely different, looking at stats in isolation doesn't mean anything.

And as you were already told thats not true. It tells you that by whoscored's formula Newcastle's players performed better - yet finished with a lot less points, presumably due to problems scoring goals considering Newcastle scored 23 less than us, yet they conceded 6 less. Performances dont always bring points but clearly Newcastle's players had no problem being statistically better than United's this season other than Pogba.

Longstaff in his small amount of matches was not one of Newcastle's best players. Hayden was better for example. It has nothing to do with United being a better team because 20 points isnt really that much. We were poor other than 1 great spell under Ole.

 

[andersj]

And as you were already told thats not true. It tells you that by whoscored's formula Newcastle's players performed better - yet finished with a lot less points, presumably due to problems scoring goals considering Newcastle scored 23 less than us, yet they conceded 6 less. Performances dont always bring points but clearly Newcastle's players had no problem being statistically better than United's this season other than Pogba.

Longstaff in his small amount of matches was not one of Newcastle's best players. Hayden was better for example. It has nothing to do with United being a better team because 20 points isnt really that much. We were poor other than 1 great spell under Ole.

In my opinion, you misinterpret the statistics and lean on an algorithm you probably don’t know/understand.

Its cool that you bring up and use a lot of statistics in discussion in here. But your approach and retoric, arguing like your intrepretation of statistics (and the WhoScored-rating!) is a blueprint, is, imo, flawed and brings little value to the discussion.

 

[Adnan]

And as you were already told thats not true. It tells you that by whoscored's formula Newcastle's players performed better - yet finished with a lot less points, presumably due to problems scoring goals considering Newcastle scored 23 less than us, yet they conceded 6 less. Performances dont always bring points but clearly Newcastle's players had no problem being statistically better than United's this season other than Pogba.

Longstaff in his small amount of matches was not one of Newcastle's best players. Hayden was better for example. It has nothing to do with United being a better team because 20 points isnt really that much. We were poor other than 1 great spell under Ole.

Go onto any Newcastle forum and they don't rate Hayden anywhere close to Longstaff as far as potential goes.

Judging players off spreadsheets should come secondary to watching players live. Our scouts have obviously watched him for a period of time and rate him highly which should be telling..

 

[AJ10]

And as you were already told thats not true. It tells you that by whoscored's formula Newcastle's players performed better - yet finished with a lot less points, presumably due to problems scoring goals considering Newcastle scored 23 less than us, yet they conceded 6 less. Performances dont always bring points but clearly Newcastle's players had no problem being statistically better than United's this season other than Pogba.

Longstaff in his small amount of matches was not one of Newcastle's best players. Hayden was better for example. It has nothing to do with United being a better team because 20 points isnt really that much. We were poor other than 1 great spell under Ole.

Performing for united and Newcastle is completely different and you accept a formula which you don't understand while ignoring things like play style/pressure etc...

 

[haram]

Hayden > Longstaff because whoscored rating said so.

 

[dbs235]

And as you were already told thats not true. It tells you that by whoscored's formula Newcastle's players performed better - yet finished with a lot less points, presumably due to problems scoring goals considering Newcastle scored 23 less than us, yet they conceded 6 less. Performances dont always bring points but clearly Newcastle's players had no problem being statistically better than United's this season other than Pogba.

Longstaff in his small amount of matches was not one of Newcastle's best players. Hayden was better for example. It has nothing to do with United being a better team because 20 points isnt really that much. We were poor other than 1 great spell under Ole.

He was, everyone was raving about him which is why we're now so interested.

 

[Dante]

Hypothetical question for those who've watched him:

If you swapped Fernandinho for Longstaff as a holding midfielder in the City side, would he have the profile to hold midfield together behind two AMs? (I'm asking about profile rather than quality here.)

I'm trying to get an idea of what kind of player he is. The Carrick comparisons only go so far.

 

[tob]

I don’t get these obsessions over statistics. How can you judge a player based on what you read? Obviously you have to see what the player does on the pitch and go by that.

If you don’t like what you see, then why even bother looking at the stats - as if that’s going to change your opinion.

 

[Ekeke]

He was, everyone was raving about him which is why we're now so interested.

No, its because he's a young English player and everyone is getting overexcited about those at the moment.

 

[Ekeke]

Go onto any Newcastle forum and they don't rate Hayden anywhere close to Longstaff as far as potential goes.

Judging players off spreadsheets should come secondary to watching players live. Our scouts have obviously watched him for a period of time and rate him highly which should be telling..

Of course watching matches live should be just as important as stats

 

[Stobzilla]

I don't need that many videos to see how good his first touch is or his passing tendencies. My only hope is that another poster brought up benitez was very counter attacking so might have instructed him to play long. Still his first touch doesn't look up to par and its a very important aspect for his position. Hoping more editors post longer videos so we can check out other aspects like his balance and tackling. Personally Im being extra picky with this transfer because DM is very important for the way the best teams currently play and if this guy isn't up to par thats another season of low quality thorugh the middle.

So yes then.

 

[Robbo*]

I dont understand the problem in this signing. Its a no risk business at 25m . If it doesn't work out, we will sell him close to that amount. Worst case - probably at a loss of 20m. We got to start taking risks like this as the prices will sky rocket the moment they have a decent season.

Funny thing is people complain that we should have got Maguire from Hull or Maddison from Championship but when we actually try it they complain.
Some people are better off where they are - like commenting in internet.

Good point you make in second paragraph - us paying approx. £40m to see if James and Longstaff can reach/unlock potential is one thing, whereas went could be paying £150m for Maguire and Maddison who, although slightly more developed/experienced, we would still be taking a rather substantial gamble on. That was reason I wasn’t keen when Grealish was being linked (even without potential attitude problems).

 

[haram]

Of course watching matches live should be just as important as stats

You are claiming he wasn’t better than players like Hayden because Whoscored ratings said so . Hayden is also English and only turned 24 in March. Or is 23 too old???

 

[Summit]

The stats being talked about obviously. Whoscored's stats.

So according to their formula, Newcastle's players performed better than ours. But ours obviously ended up with a lot more points

I wouldn't trust any stats that says Young scored above 1.0 tbh

 

[ivaldo]

When did I suggest I know everything about this player other than his passing and first touch?

Yeah, because just claiming you know how good his first touch and passing is from a few minutes of video is perfectly reasonable...

 

[Decomposing In Paris]

The stats being talked about obviously. Whoscored's stats.

So according to their formula, Newcastle's players performed better than ours. But ours obviously ended up with a lot more points

Yeah, I noticed that too... I also still get angry when I see where Herrera finished on that list.

 

[Trophy Room]

Hypothetical question for those who've watched him:

If you swapped Fernandinho for Longstaff as a holding midfielder in the City side, would he have the profile to hold midfield together behind two AMs? (I'm asking about profile rather than quality here.)

I'm trying to get an idea of what kind of player he is. The Carrick comparisons only go so far.

I’m not sure the sample size (in terms of games played) is big enough to reliably answer that question.

 

[settembrini]

If your stats tells you that Dale Stephens is a better passer than Ruben Neves, you should probably consider if you use the stats correct.

Evaluating a player passing based on stats is more complex than some in here make out. Even more so for a defensive midfielder. There is a lot of statistics you could use. In my opinion key passes gives limited information/value. I like xgbuildup90, but that too obviously favour players playing for a good, high-scoring team and must be used correctly.

There are quite a few in here who struggle to put numbers in a meaningful and relevant context.

I don't think Stephens is a better passer than Neves. Although Neves (like Longstaff) is a good example of an overrated passer who is often compared to Carrick despite not being anywhere near his quality.

Using stats to help evaluate players can be complex but it's necessary. There's a reason that every well run club today uses statistical data and analytics for their own player analysis and scouting. I find that people who get upset about the use of stats are often just people who don't like it when their opinions on a player get challenged by evidence.

 

[R'hllor]

Already preparing myself to defend him

He is so fecked then.

 

[andersj]

I don't think Stephens is a better passer than Neves. Although Neves (like Longstaff) is a good example of an overrated passer who is often compared to Carrick despite not being anywhere near his quality.

Using stats to help evaluate players can be complex but it's necessary. There's a reason that every well run club today uses statistical data and analytics for their own player analysis and scouting. I find that people who get upset about the use of stats are often just people who don't like it when their opinions on a player get challenged by evidence.

I agree that using stats is necessary. But one needs to be careful not to get drawn to the wrong conclusion based on wrong use of the stats.

(I also agree that Neves passing is not at Carrick level. But neither was Carricks at 22.)

 

[AltiUn]

Has there been any credible link to this guy?

He’s about the only midfielder we’ve credibly been linked with.

 

[IrishRedDevil]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

‘DAILY MAIL: United to make an opening offer for Sean Longstaff next week expected to be £15m plus add-ons.’

£15m opening bid seems reasonable considering he started 8 games and is currently injured.

 

[AltiUn]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

‘DAILY MAIL: United to make an opening offer for Sean Longstaff next week expected to be £15m plus add-ons.’

£15m opening bid seems reasonable considering he started 8 games and is currently injured.

If we do get him I reckon it’ll end up somewhere north of 20m but like you said, pretty reasonable opening bid.

 

[Infestissumam]

looks like he's #3 on our shopping list. More than happy with it, the more I see and read about him the more I hope it gets done.

I just hope he's not the only midfielder we sign this summer.

 

[DWelbz19]

Yeah, I noticed that too... I also still get angry when I see where Herrera finished on that list.

It’s crazy how relaxed we’ve been in replacing him.

 

[haram]

He is so fecked then.

What?

 

[Nitewolf]

Hypothetical question for those who've watched him:

If you swapped Fernandinho for Longstaff as a holding midfielder in the City side, would he have the profile to hold midfield together behind two AMs? (I'm asking about profile rather than quality here.)

I'm trying to get an idea of what kind of player he is. The Carrick comparisons only go so far.

The only problem with this comparison is it assumes that Fernandinho is holding the midfield solo, which is not the case, he always has the support of two inverted wing backs (Kyle Walker and Zinchenko).

If we want to use that formula then yes, he can. Otherwise IMO the only two players in the world who can really play as solo DM under two AMs are Kante and Casemiro. Longstaff is definitely not one of those gems (yet).

 

[Nitewolf]

People here comparing Longstaff to Carrick just baffled me.

Michael Carrick was playing in the championship when he was 22!!! Even after he joined United at age 25 he wasn't the finished project we are thinking of. Years of playing next to Scholes had its effect in his development and understanding of the game.

Give the new generation some slack and stop comparing children to icons at their peak.

 

[Dante]

The only problem with this comparison is it assumes that Fernandinho is holding the midfield solo, which is not the case, he always has the support of two inverted wing backs (Kyle Walker and Zinchenko).

If we want to use that formula then yes, he can. Otherwise IMO the only two players in the world who can really play as solo DM under two AMs are Kante and Casemiro. Longstaff is definitely not one of those gems (yet).

I had no idea what "inverted fullbacks" meant, so I had to Google it. Football Manager terminology, apparently.

By the sounds of things, it means fullbacks that play more of a role in the buildup/middle third than they do in the attack/final third. That describes Shaw and AWB down to a tee. Neither is the best at bombing past their wingers, which seems to be a common criticism though I don't see it that way.

 

[Nitewolf]

I had no idea what "inverted fullbacks" meant, so I had to Google it.

By the sounds of things, it means fullbacks that play more of a role in the buildup/middle third than they do in the attack/final third. That describes Shaw and AWB down to a tee.

Exactly. AWB and Shaw fit that profile. Maybe that's why we are chasing Bruno Fernandez to play as AM next to Pogba instead of Ndombele, and why we are linked with a forward like Ben Yedder to replace Lukako.

I assume there's a plan and a vision for this. I hope I'm not naively optimistic. However that would require a couple of very capable defenders.

 

[andersj]

Exactly. AWB and Shaw fit that profile. Maybe that's why we are chasing Bruno Fernandez to play as AM next to Pogba instead of Ndombele, and why we are linked with a forward like Ben Yedder to replace Lukako.

I assume there's a plan and a vision for this. I hope I'm not naively optimistic. However that would require a couple of very capable defenders.

Speculations, but interesting.

AWB is not that good in the buildup, but he could maybe become a bit of a fullback version of Kante and bring that to the table/mix.

 

[Thiagoal]

People here comparing Longstaff to Carrick just baffled me.

Michael Carrick was playing in the championship when he was 22!!! Even after he joined United at age 25 he wasn't the finished project we are thinking of. Years of playing next to Scholes had its effect in his development and understanding of the game.

Give the new generation some slack and stop comparing children to icons at their peak.

No truer words spoken today! I saw someone writing off James Garner the other day after seeing his 5 minute cameo at West Ham or wherever it was! Crazy!