South Korean ship with 104 on board sinks after 'torpedo attack by North Korea'

[anver]

A good lookout post on China.

 

[brewlio]

If and when North Korea's regime is critically weakened I suspect we'll see the people turn on them.

This echoes my sentiments.

 

[Team Brian GB]

Can US afford to be involved in another war? I know they have troops stationed there.

The cost of Iraq and Afghanistan are not from the wars themselves but the following occupations and insurgencies, there is no fanatical groundswell in the DPRK that could fuel such a campaign and there is no ethnic divisions that could lead to militancy either - the fact that North Korea keeps such an incredibly tight leash on the control and direction of society would mean there is no infrastructure amongst the civilian population to launch and mantain such an offensive, if anyone shows or infers the slightest hint of dedication to anything other than the state they and all their relatives get shipped off to some camp somewhere.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

The cost of Iraq and Afghanistan are not from the wars themselves but the following occupations and insurgencies, there is no fanatical groundswell in the DPRK that could fuel such a campaign and there is no ethnic divisions that could lead to militancy either - the fact that North Korea keeps such an incredibly tight leash on the control and direction of society would mean there is no infrastructure amongst the civilian population to launch and mantain such an offensive, if anyone shows or infers the slightest hint of dedication to anything other than the state they and all their relatives get shipped off to some camp somewhere.

A flood of migrants into South Korea could cause lots of problems.

 

[Alex]

The cost of Iraq and Afghanistan are not from the wars themselves but the following occupations and insurgencies, there is no fanatical groundswell in the DPRK that could fuel such a campaign and there is no ethnic divisions that could lead to militancy either - the fact that North Korea keeps such an incredibly tight leash on the control and direction of society would mean there is no infrastructure amongst the civilian population to launch and mantain such an offensive, if anyone shows or infers the slightest hint of dedication to anything other than the state they and all their relatives get shipped off to some camp somewhere.

That is so short and narrow sighted that it seems like something that you would hear a government official

 

[Team Brian GB]

That is so short and narrow sighted that it seems like something that you would hear a government official

Iraq and Afghanistan are the exception rather than the norm, North Korea is remarkably like imperial Japan which following 1945 became more deferrent to stability and the rule of law than just about any other country in the world. There is no religious fanaticism, there is no platform for terrorism to arise and the country is homogenous with no history of ethnic tension, this beside the fact that the regime is so totalitarian there are no social networks with a national spread. You guard against insurgency of course but it would be a very low risk, China isn't exactly going to allow such a scenario to play out on her north eastern frontier.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Was not Kim Jong-il supposed to have been seriously ill last year and more responsibilities being taken up by his son Kim Jong-un? Could the recent shift in approach be a reflection of this?

 

[EZee]

Iraq and Afghanistan are the exception rather than the norm, North Korea is remarkably like imperial Japan which following 1945 became more deferrent to stability and the rule of law than just about any other country in the world. There is no religious fanaticism, there is no platform for terrorism to arise and the country is homogenous with no history of ethnic tension, this beside the fact that the regime is so totalitarian there are no social networks with a national spread. You guard against insurgency of course but it would be a very low risk, China isn't exactly going to allow such a scenario to play out on her north eastern frontier.

Im not sure how willing they would be to see a us military involvment right on their frontier either

 

[Team Brian GB]

Im not sure how willing they would be to see a us military involvment right on their frontier either

Very, very much so, which is why I am dubious regarding where this is going - the Chinese and the Russians blocked Bush from getting in there during his time in office though that was when there was little going on relatively. It is a different situation and more troublesome for China when North Korea commits an act of war so they say.

Though the ultimate dampner on this situation is despite whatever escalations that may occur that the United States will do all it can to avoid war and won't go chasing it ala Iraq, realistically I doubt we will see war unless the north initiates it and despite their paranoia and insanity they surely wouldn't be that stupid.

 

[EZee]

Very, very much so, which is why I am dubious regarding where this is going - the Chinese and the Russians blocked Bush from getting in there during his time in office though that was when there was little going on relatively. It is a different situation and more troublesome for China when North Korea commits an act of war so they say.

Though the ultimate dampner on this situation is despite whatever escalations that may occur that the United States will do all it can to avoid war and won't go chasing it ala Iraq, drealistically I doubt we will see war unless the north initiates it an despite their paranoia and insanity they surely wouldn't be that stupid.

or unless they suddenly discover a substantial amount of oil

 

[Sir Matt]

I just wish Kim Jong Il would have another stroke and die. He doesn't really have much of a plan for succession, as far as we know. I'm not sure anyone would find out about it anytime soon though.

The chances of war in this situation are minimal because China doesn't want the US anywhere nearer than it already is in South Korea and Japan. China also doesn't want to deal with the millions of refugees that would inevitably flood into China. I'm sure the South agrees on that also. While many South Koreans may want a reunification, I doubt most anticipate the huge impact that it would have on the South with the influx of North Koreans. It sounds all nice and happy, but millions of uneducated, unskilled, and destitute immigrants would be detrimental to the South.

This is ignoring the major risk that Seoul would be under with the amount of artillery and other weapons the North has pointed at it along with its nuclear weapons. The US and SK could take out everything the North has in terms of military hardware, but it wouldn't be able to stop it before some significant damage was inflicted upon the South.

The circumstances under which North Korean civilians live are depressing, much worse for those imprisoned in concentration camps. It's probably equally bad that countries like China, Venezuela, and Cuba claim it's all lies.

But honestly, what can we do about it? Very little unless we can find some North Korean willing to bring down the Dear Leader.

 

[hungrywing]

...How the South Korean people are reacting would be interesting to know. An article I read, I think in the Economist, said that there were more protests over an American military vehicle accidentally killing 2 people than this attack...

I'm curious as to exactly what point the article was trying to make. IIRC the incident they mention wasn't just two people but two young girls in school uniform nonetheless, and what actually ignited the uproar was A. the US military's handling of the immediate aftermath (they didn't discipline the 'culprits' in any way whatsoever) and B. extremely unfortunate timing that the incident occurred while one of the rising issues in that country was how the US military HQ was spread out over wide open spaces of land that were considered prime real estate right smack in the middle of an ever-crowded Seoul. It was primarily an animalistic reaction to the death of two of their young perpetrated by an entity seen as uncaring and alien. You only had to look at the pictures of housewives and office-workers sacrificing some of their own time to gather in massive candlelight vigils for those girls to realize that the more political/vocal branches of the protests were really just offshoots.

Was not Kim Jong-il supposed to have been seriously ill last year and more responsibilities being taken up by his son Kim Jong-un? Could the recent shift in approach be a reflection of this?

Lot of speculation that this is a test to see not just how ready the military complex is to accept the transition from one dictator to the next (root out the disloyal, etc.), but also to establish KJU's "legacy" or "prowess" amongst the populace a-la "Our fearless leader has struck a mighty blow against the Capitalist pigs".

 

[Gambit]

The recovery op and thats one big bloody crane.

 

[Addis]

Some part of me really hope shit kicks off and NK get their government torn to shreds.

I hope there isn't a major war with China and another big power etc, but NK deserve it.

 

[Team Brian GB]

While many South Koreans may want a reunification, I doubt most anticipate the huge impact that it would have on the South with the influx of North Koreans. It sounds all nice and happy, but millions of uneducated, unskilled, and destitute immigrants would be detrimental to the South.

It would be just as the reunification of Germany was, the German economy has never been the same since and twenty years on the East is still draining money from the West and has 20-25% unemployment in large part, and East Germany was relatively wealthy and advanced unlike North Korea.

 

[Sir Matt]

It would be just as the reunification of Germany was, the German economy has never been the same since and twenty years on the East is still draining money from the West and has 20-25% unemployment in large part, and East Germany was relatively wealthy and advanced unlike North Korea.

Yeah, and quite a few East Germans wish they could return to what they had 20 years ago. A more gradual reunification is the only way to prevent it from being chaos. I'm not sure how that could be accomplished ethically though. Securing a solid food supply and other necessities would be a start, and then generating technological and social developments over a period of years? It would but huge strain on both populations to just integrate both populations at once.

 

[Sir Matt]

South Korean Propaganda Blasts

By JUSTIN JIMENEZ
Mon Jun 7, 5:35 am ET

On the Korean peninsula, turning your music up too loud could literally mean war. Last week, South Korea formally accused North Korea of launching a torpedo on March 26 that sunk its warship Cheonan, declaring "psychological warfare" in retaliation. Ending a six-year suspension of state-sanctioned propaganda toward its northern neighbor, the South transmitted its first FM radio broadcast across the border on May 25. Its first message to the Hermit Kingdom? A South Korean pop song.

Technically, the two Koreas still are at war. The Korean War of the early 1950s concluded with an armistice in 1953 that divided the peninsula at the 38th parallel, now home to the 155-mile Korean Demilitarized Zone, better known as the DMZ. The last five decades have been marked by a recurring cycle of flare-ups between the clashing neighbors, and the DMZ remains the most heavily guarded border on the planet. (See the iconography of Kim Jong Il.)

The 38th parallel is also where most of the self-aggrandizing exchange between the two countries takes place. Both sides have set-up "peace villages" - propaganda campaigns thinly masquerading as cities - on their sides of the border. From here, North and South periodically trade taunts through structural showdowns. During the 1980s, South Korea erected a 98-meter flagpole in its peace village, Daeseong-dong. North Korea responded with a 160-meter flagpole - the tallest in the world - in its border town, Kijong-dong. In 1998, the South built the Freedom Building in the DMZ's Joint Security Area to hold talks for families separated by the war. The North countered this by adding additional stories to its own Panmun Hall.

In addition to its aural and architectural methods, South Korea has also engaged in traditional paper-based propaganda. During the Korean War, Seoul showered the North with anti-Pyongyang leaflets, dropping more than two billion of them over the course of the conflict - enough paper to cover a landmass 20 times the size of the peninsula. The effort continued into the Cold War, with leaflets enticing possible defectors with photos of the famous South Korean actress Won Mi-kyung and promises of riches. Beginning in 2003, South Korean activists took matters into their own hands, dispatching balloons stuffed with millions of leaflets for their North Korean counterparts. According to reports, Seoul has considered reviving the tactic in the current confrontation, but has delayed the move due to inclement weather. It has also threatened to mount giant loud speakers along the DMZ to blare anti-Pyongyang rhetoric across the border. (See rare pictures from inside North Korea.)

Though balanced by a stern speech by South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, admonishing North Korea for sinking its naval vessel, South Korea's re-inaugural broadcast began with a song by the popular K-pop girl group, 4minute. Their song, "HuH (Hit Your Heart)," was chosen as a shot at the North's oppressive regime. "Baby, you're kidding me? I do what I want and I do it my way," the girls purr, flaunting the South's prosperity and freedom of expression to its impoverished northern counterpart, complete with a thumping beat and sultry dance moves.

But as with most of the Koreas' clashes, the South's latest barrage of propaganda has been tempered by the hesitation to pull its reclusive northern neighbor out of its asocial shell and into all-out war. Nobody wants another war on the Korean peninsula - not even the pugnacious North - and some believe this latest bout of brinkmanship may simply be for show. Senior South Korean officials have said they need to reassess the current situation before proceeding with either their loudspeaker or leaflet tactics; meanwhile, Pyongyang has sworn to destroy any speakers the South sets up along the border. Maybe K-pop isn't their thing.

South Korean Propaganda Blasts - Yahoo! News

I'm pretty sure K-pop counts as torture.

 

[Avatar]

"China says a North Korean border guard shot and killed three people near the countries' border last week......."

BBC News - North Korean border guard 'shoots three Chinese dead'


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China looking for excuses?? !! I have little info. about the Korean problem so please excuse my paranoia