Storeytime 2013/14

[B20]

I've re-made the system for fun to include Everton in the top group and also to reflect what are the real bottom teams. I've Named it the ST-B9-Table. It ends up like this

Top 7: United, City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool, Everton.
Middle 5: Southampton, Newcastle, Villa, Stoke, Swansea.
Bottom 8: Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich, WBA, west ham.

Win all home games (57)
Lose all away against top 7 (0)
Draw all away against middle 5 (5)
Win away against bottom 8 except one loss (21)

83 points wins it. It's based on beating the bottom 8 more regularly, but I think a better reflection of what teams to beat and draw against and where'd you'd be ok losing.

Chelsea: +2
Arsenal: 0
Liverpool: -3
City: -3

Everton: -9
Spurs: -10

United: -15

 

[B20]

Comparing the two systems.

• Chelsea on course for 85 points in the old and new.
• Arsenal on course for 86 points in the old, 83 in the new.
• City on course for 85 in the old, 80 points in the new

• Liverpool on course for 82 in the old, 80 in the new.

• Everton on course for 77 in the old, 74 in the new.
• Spurs on course for 74 in the old, 73 in the new.
• United on course for 68 in both.

PS. Ok, so the biggest surprises here is City finishing on par with Liverpool(!!!).

The thing about city is that they've given themselves some mountains to climb with some bad away defeats against the rabble. If they want to improve their tally here, it will have to be away against the likes of Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal and United.

Chelsea's only difficult away game is Liverpool. They'll need to start dropping points against the bottom 8 and at home to not win the title, basically.

Liverpool end up higher because this system assumes they will away win against the bottom 8, of which they have 5 games. And beat all of Newcastle, spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea and City at Anfield. I think there's 9 points to be dropped in those 10 games that the ST-B9 table says should be all wins.

Predict a finish around 75 points. And City to take around 84 points. I don't see them getting much more than 4 points from the 4 away games against top 7 sides.

PPS. I think lowering the bar by 3 points to account for the fact that all teams will inevitably lose one game against the rabble will make things look more apt. Also, more pleasing to have the same points target as the old system. Edit: Done that, it looks much saner now.

 

[B20]

Ok, I am not sure what I was smoking when I did the previous calculations in the new system. I put it into an excel sheet this time. It is in fact:

Chelsea +2

Arsenal -3
Man City -3
Liverpool -3

So chelsea to win the title by a good margin. We can expect Arsenal and even city to drop into the mix for 4th place. Here's a graph showing their storeytime form curve over the season:

Chelsea the most stable of the teams, having swung between +2 and -2.

Liverpool swinging between +2 and -4.
Arsenal between -7 and -1.

City swinging between -7 and 0.

We can note however that past the halfway mark, city and arsenal dug deep to get some results out of the ordinary to drag them up, whilst liverpool's form curve seems to be slumping a bit.

Next up, a revision of the also rans battling for 5th.

 

[adexkola]

I think City will revert to their dominating form and grab crucial wins away to the big teams. I also think Chelsea's recent form is an aberration.

Time will tell I guess.

 

[B20]

Yet more errors in calculation discovered when going through the last 3 teams. But here they are:

Spurs -7
Everton -10
Man Utd -14

And the graphs showing their form curves:

Only spurs with any real hope of catching the top 4.

Everton have been very up and down. They found some big results in the middle stages but seem to be falling away of late.

Spurs meanwhile stayed fairly stable, had a drop off, changed their manager, clawed their way back up and now seem to be stalling a bit as well.

United have been on one perpetual decline. What a fecking depressing graph.

 

[B20]

I think City will revert to their dominating form and grab crucial wins away to the big teams. I also think Chelsea's recent form is an aberration.

Time will tell I guess.

Looking at how stable Chelsea's form curve is, I don't think there is much abberation to see.

City can still do it, but they have quite a few mountains to climb.

I don't think Arsenal have what it takes to grab the big away wins here they need. They've got away games against us, everton, chelsea and tottenham.

 

[NM]

United have been on one perpetual decline. What a fecking depressing graph.

Obligatory liverpool dig - about as depressing as Pool's PL form for the last twenty odd years ehh?

Couldn't help it.

 

[B20]

I guess, given how many changes there are, the new parameters should be compared to the old ones again:

• Chelsea +2 (same as in the old)

• Arsenal -3 (+3 in the old - a whopping six point difference)
• Man City -3 (+2 in the old, five point difference)
• Liverpool -3 (-1 in the old, two point difference)

• Spurs -7 (-9 in the old, +2 difference)
• Everton -10 (-6 in the old, 4 point difference)
• Man Utd -14 (-15 difference, + 1 difference)

Interesting to see how the new system projects fewer points for most, probably more realistic.

 

[Spiersey]

Going by the Storeytime table, those 0-0's are vital against Arsenal and United.

 

[RedSky]

Using the Redsky Predictor.... I currently have:

1. Shitty 88 points
2. Chelsea 84 points
3. Liverpool 74 points
4. Arsenal 74 points
5. United 70 points
6. Everton 68 points
7. Tottenham 68 points

 

[Donaldo]

fecking hell. Will someone let the Storeytime be instead of coming up with inane alternates?

 

[Archie Leach]

Why is there a B9 in the title, @B20 ? Your name is B20, that's 11 more than 9. Don't sell yourself short, you earned those numbers.

 

[B20]

fcuking hell. Will someone let the Storeytime be instead of coming up with inane alternates?

It's the same system. Just tweaked to reflect the actual top and bottom teams this season.

 

[B20]

Updated.

Old System:

• 1st: Arsenal +3

• 2nd: Chelsea +2
• 3rd: Man City 0
• 4th: Liverpool -1

• 5th: Everton -6
• 6th: Spurs -9
• 7th: Man Utd -17

New System:

• 1st: Chelsea +2

• 2nd: Liverpool -3
• 3rd: Arsenal -3
• 4th: Man City -5

• 5th: Spurs -7
• 6th: Everton -10
• 7th: Man Utd: -16

*Differences between the old and new:
Old system has a top 6 without Everton and Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich as bottom 6 teams to beat away.
New System has the current top 7 as top teams and a bottom 8 of Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich, WBA, west ham to beat away, but allows for 3 points dropped.
Both have 83 points as their target number.

 

[B20]

Updated.

Old System:

• 1st: Chelsea +2

• 2nd: Arsenal + 1
• 3rd: Man City 0
• 4th: Liverpool -1

• 5th: Everton -6
• 6th: Spurs -10
• 7th: Man Utd -16

New System:

• 1st: Chelsea +0

• 2nd: Liverpool -3
• 3rd: Arsenal -5
• 4th: Man City -5

• 5th: Spurs -8
• 6th: Everton -10
• 7th: Man Utd: -15

*Differences between the old and new:
Old system has a top 6 without Everton and Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich as bottom 6 teams to beat away.
New System has the current top 7 as top teams and a bottom 8 of Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich, WBA, west ham to beat away, but allows for 3 points dropped.
Both have 83 points as their target number.

 

[B20]

Updated.

Old System:

• 1st: Chelsea +2

• 2nd: Liverpool + 1

• 3rd: Man City 0
• 4th: Arsenal 0

• 5th: Everton -6
• 6th: Spurs -10
• 7th: Man Utd -16

New System:

• 1st: Chelsea +0

• 2nd: Liverpool -1

• 3rd: Man City -5
• 4th: Arsenal -7

• 5th: Spurs -8
• 6th: Everton -10
• 7th: Man Utd: -15

*Differences between the old and new:
Old system has a top 6 without Everton and Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich as bottom 6 teams to beat away.
New System has the current top 7 as top teams and a bottom 8 of Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich, WBA, west ham to beat away, but allows for 3 points dropped.
Both have 83 points as their target number.

The way the storeytime table has been changing lately is crazy.

 

[Eboue]

I've updated this using the same calculations I used last year. Short version is that instead of assigning expected points based on assigned tiers, I use actual data from this season. So since Everton has won 9, drew 3 and lost 1 at home, their opponents have gained 6 points in 13 games. This means that the expected points from a visit to Goodison Park is 0.46. In 14 away matches, Stoke has 1 win, 3 draws and 10 losses. This means that expected points from hosting Stoke is (33/14) 2.36.

Chelsea 23
Liverpool 18
Manchester City 18
Arsenal 18
Spurs 14
Everton 12
Manchester United 7

 

[Eboue]

Chelsea are really pulling away.

 

[B20]

Updated.

Old System:

• 1st: Liverpool + 4

• 2nd: Arsenal +3

• 3rd: Chelsea + 1
• 4th: Man City 0

• 5th: Everton -6

• 6th: Spurs -13

• 7th: Man Utd -17

New System:

• 1st: Liverpool +2

• 2nd: Chelsea -1

• 3rd: Arsenal -4
• 4th: Man City -5

• 5th: Everton -10
• 6th: Spurs -11

• 7th: Man Utd: -18

*Differences between the old and new:
Old system has a top 6 without Everton and Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich as bottom 6 teams to beat away.
New System has the current top 7 as top teams and a bottom 8 of Sunderland, Palace, Fulham, Hull, Cardiff, Norwich, WBA, west ham to beat away, but allows for 3 points dropped.
Both have 83 points as their target number.

 

[Eboue]

Eboue System*

Chelsea - 24
Manchester City - 20
Liverpool - 20
Arsenal - 19
Spurs - 14
Everton - 12
Manchester United - 8

*uses actual data for each fixture (Crystal Palace at home, Hull away, etc)

 

[zing]

Not a criticism, but the obvious thing is that these things don't account for the fact that Chelsea will likely be in the CL next week. When it comes to crunch time after having played so many matches, that will make a big difference, IMO, because none of the other sides are in Europe.

 

[B20]

I am not sure I get the Eboue system. Can you spell it out?

 

[Eboue]

I am not sure I get the Eboue system. Can you spell it out?

Starts with each teams record in home and away. Here is an example of home.

Manchester United has won 6, drawn 3 and lost 5 at home. So 3*1 + 5*3 means opponents have gotten 18 points from 14 matches at Old Trafford. Thus a team visiting Man Utd can expect 1.29 points. That gives me this.

Then I go through each team's matches so far like this

Here they are round by round.

And then I just make a chart

 

[duffer]

Nerds.

 

[Eboue]

 

[Eboue]