If he plays with that poor of a serve, then I don't see him winning it.
If the serve gets back to how it was pre-back injury, he should be fine for a win.
Despite it being his biggest weakness, it is still a massive part of his game, and one other players tend to exploit.
Hardly anyone takes Nadal to 5 sets at RG, that's the mental task facing everyone.
Last year considering it was played in Autumn and Nadal had hardly played in build up with the odd schedule post Covid...it should've been best chance in long time of someone taking the title. Nadal didn't lose even a set.
Since 2011 only Isner randomly in first round of RG that year and Djokovic in 2013 when he lost in five and then beating him in straight sets have won more than one set v him on the dirt so that's the massive task, players simply don't believe it can be done until one does do it and then others will follow suit.
Also depends on the draw a bit aswell...him having a run of say Ruud-Sinner-Zverev-Thiem/Tsispitas from 3rd round onwards would massively test him as at 35 he dosen't want to be drawn into couple of 4 hour slugfests before potential final.
Instead he'll probably avoid most of them (or they'll get knocked out early) and he'll get Medvedev's likely opponents as he's awful on clay compared to other surfaces.