pillory
Full Member
It's fun.
So you've just done it by the table as it stands each week?Ok, here are my findings based on the league table as it stands right now.
Pete's system:
Chelsea 5
Man Utd 1
Arsenal -5
Liverpool -9
Rowem's system:
Chelsea 4.5
Man Utd -0.25
Arsenal -5
Liverpool -9.25
This is good news for us and bad news for Arsenal and Liverpool compared to the predetermined ranking stuff, so I suggest we stick with this method from now on.
Yes, you always use the current standings. It's obviously a crap method early in the season, but it should be quite good at this stage. In fact I have a strong urge to do this for previous seasons, ie to compare adjusted mid-season tables to actual final tables, but that sounds like a whole lot of work.So you've just done it by the table as it stands each week?
That's seems a good compromise, and a lot simpler than the weighting thing I was suggesting. Over the course of the season it will converge more and more with the reality of who is actually middle 8 /bottom 8 quality.
There's something fairly amusing about this.The idea is nice, but the implementation is a bit spastic...
.... and the postings in this thread make it looks more spastic.
Not if you're a Liverpool fanHave to say Rowem's system is preferable!
Here they haven't even gained points once in Peter's system, because Everton and West Ham are doing worse than predicted, and only a couple of single and half points in Rowem's.Liverpool's is great reading, they've only gained points twice, once at West Ham which the system is rating much too highly.
Peter:I'd be interested to see the results by the Pillory method.
Rather than continuing to include Liverpool in this list, MikeupNorth would now be better off adding in Villa (-7).Peter:
Chelsea 0
Arsenal -3
Man Utd -6
Liverpool -18
....
Villa would be much better included than Liverpool, I agree, however these Mancs find some curious pleasure in highlighting Liverpool's difficulties.Rather than continuing to include Liverpool in this list, MikeupNorth would now be better off adding in Villa (-7).
Villa are only 1 point behind Man. Utd in this system !!
For my own amusement I've calculated Spurs at -9 currently, but even that is still +9 better than Liverpool.
The Chavs have the upper hand ... because they are 4 points ahead of us. i could have told you that just by looking at the league table - it took me just 2 seconds and I did need the pythagorus binary bollox formulae concocted above!West Ham is the sticking point in PeterStorey's system. Otherwise it's pretty damn good way of telling who has the upper hand. In anycase it's clear Chelsea have the run at the moment.
As I said back then......as time goes by the different systems should converge reaching a singular view come the time the result is knownObviously.Any measure of performance must be based upon actual results.Pete's sytem is not meant to be perfect, if it were you would be able now to predict the table in mid May 2010.
What Pete's system does though,is to weight those early season games according to the relative difficulty of the tie so as to give a better guide just from a few results as to the likely table come the season's end.It's a good guide and easier to understand than Daniel Finkelstein's Fink tank.As the season progresses it should converge with the actual league table.
This year's not been as useful as last year when under PeterStorey's system United were about 4 or 5 points clear of Liverpool when the league table showed that Liverpool were 4 points clear.The Chavs have the upper hand ... because they are 4 points ahead of us. i could have told you that just by looking at the league table - it took me just 2 seconds and I did need the pythagorus binary bollox formulae concocted above!
Well, that has a lot of do with our strange fixture last season of playing everyone in the top half away in the first half of the season.This year's not been as useful as last year when under PeterStorey's system United were about 4 or 5 points clear of Liverpool when the league table showed that Liverpool were 4 points clear.
Course and it was reflected by Peter's system. But it didn't stop the doom-mongers and the media from writing us off and many predicting it was Liverpool's title.Well, that has a lot of do with our strange fixture last season of playing everyone in the top half away in the first half of the season.
Maybe there's a way to adjust game weighting based on table position at the time of kickoff. Shouldn't involve much more than a-Liverpool's is great reading, they've only gained points twice, once at West Ham which the system is rating much too highly.
The rest of us look about right to me, based on how we all seem to have played.
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 15
2 Manchester United 12
3 Manchester City 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur 12[/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Aston Villa 12
6 Liverpool 9
7 Arsenal 9
8 Sunderland 9
9 Stoke City 7
10 Fulham 6
11 Wigan Athletic 6
12 Burnley 6 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Everton 6
14 West Ham United 4
15 Birmingham City 4
16 Wolverhampton Wndrs 4
17 Hull City 4
18 Bolton Wanderers 4
19 Blackburn Rovers 4
20 Portsmouth 0[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 24
2 Manchester United 22
3 Arsenal 22
4 Manchester City 19 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Tottenham Hotspur 19
6 Liverpool 18
7 Aston Villa 17
8 Sunderland 16
9 Stoke City 15
10 Fulham 14
11 Wigan Athletic 13
12 Everton 12 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Burnley 12
14 Bolton Wanderers 11
15 Birmingham City 10
16 Blackburn Rovers 10
17 Wolverhampton Wndrs 9
18 Hull City 8
19 West Ham United 7
20 Portsmouth 4[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 36
2 Manchester United 34
3 Arsenal 31
4 Tottenham Hotspur 27[/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Manchester City 26
6 Aston Villa 26
7 Liverpool 24
8 Fulham 22
9 Birmingham City 21
10 Sunderland 20
11 Stoke City 20
12 Blackburn Rovers 18[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Wigan Athletic 17
14 Burnley 17
15 Everton 16
16 Hull City 16
17 West Ham United 14
18 Bolton Wanderers 13
19 Wolverhampton Wndrs 13
20 Portsmouth 10[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 45
2 Manchester United 43
3 Arsenal 41 -1 game
4 Tottenham Hotspur 37 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Manchester City 35 -1 game
6 Aston Villa 35
7 Liverpool 33
8 Birmingham City 32
9 Fulham 27 -1 game
10 Sunderland 23
11 Everton 22 -1 game
12 Stoke City 21 -1 game [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Blackburn Rovers 21
14 Burnley 20
15 Wolverhampton Wndrs 19
16 Wigan Athletic 19 -1 game
17 West Ham United 18
18 Bolton Wanderers 18 -2 games
19 Hull City 18
20 Portsmouth 14[/COLOR]
Timely question!And how is the Leeds defeat going to be factored in?
I was thinking about this. PS's system has three tiers, Rowem's has four and that was meant to be a more nuanced and precise representation of the league. But right now it looks to me like it makes more sense to part them in three, like this;Is there any reason not to switch Brum and WHU and also Fulham and Everton? It wouldn't involve much work to recalculate the numbers and would reflect the difficulty more accurately, I think.
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 15
2 Manchester United 12
3 Manchester City 12
4 Tottenham Hotspur 12[/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Aston Villa 12
6 Liverpool 9
7 Arsenal 9
8 Sunderland 9
9 Stoke City 7
10 Fulham 6
11 Wigan Athletic 6
12 Burnley 6 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Everton 6
14 West Ham United 4
15 Birmingham City 4
16 Wolverhampton Wndrs 4
17 Hull City 4
18 Bolton Wanderers 4
19 Blackburn Rovers 4
20 Portsmouth 0[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 24
2 Manchester United 22
3 Arsenal 22
4 Manchester City 19 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Tottenham Hotspur 19
6 Liverpool 18
7 Aston Villa 17
8 Sunderland 16
9 Stoke City 15
10 Fulham 14
11 Wigan Athletic 13
12 Everton 12 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Burnley 12
14 Bolton Wanderers 11
15 Birmingham City 10
16 Blackburn Rovers 10
17 Wolverhampton Wndrs 9
18 Hull City 8
19 West Ham United 7
20 Portsmouth 4[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 36
2 Manchester United 34
3 Arsenal 31
4 Tottenham Hotspur 27[/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Manchester City 26
6 Aston Villa 26
7 Liverpool 24
8 Fulham 22
9 Birmingham City 21
10 Sunderland 20
11 Stoke City 20
12 Blackburn Rovers 18[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Wigan Athletic 17
14 Burnley 17
15 Everton 16
16 Hull City 16
17 West Ham United 14
18 Bolton Wanderers 13
19 Wolverhampton Wndrs 13
20 Portsmouth 10[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]1 Chelsea 45
2 Manchester United 43
3 Arsenal 41 -1 game
4 Tottenham Hotspur 37 [/COLOR]
[COLOR="SeaGreen"]5 Manchester City 35 -1 game
6 Aston Villa 35
7 Liverpool 33
8 Birmingham City 32
9 Fulham 27 -1 game
10 Sunderland 23
11 Everton 22 -1 game
12 Stoke City 21 -1 game [/COLOR]
[COLOR="Red"]13 Blackburn Rovers 21
14 Burnley 20
15 Wolverhampton Wndrs 19
16 Wigan Athletic 19 -1 game
17 West Ham United 18
18 Bolton Wanderers 18 -2 games
19 Hull City 18
20 Portsmouth 14[/COLOR]
No one's told you, huh. It means we've lost the league for the next three seasons. Automatic 20 point deduction each year until 2013.And how is the Leeds defeat going to be factored in?
Still finishing above liverpool on the Adjusted League Table though.No one's told you, huh. It means we've lost the league for the next three seasons. Automatic 20 point deduction each year until 2013.
Done.Perhaps post it like this?