The Adjusted League Table

[Valentino]

This adjusted table from prem38 they also make it according to fixture difficulty played. But they only base it on this season results. I don't know why but i like it better

PREDICTION TABLE what is this?
(after games played 30th December 2009)
Num Team G CurPts PosPts TotPts2
1 Manchester United 18 43 +44.5 87.5
2 Arsenal 19 41 +46.3 87.3
3 Chelsea 18 45 +40.5 85.5
4 Tottenham Hotspur 18 37 +33.3 70.3
5 Aston Villa 18 35 +34.8 69.8
6 Manchester City 19 35 +30.9 65.9
7 Liverpool 18 33 +31.7 64.7
8 Birmingham City 18 32 +28.4 60.4
9 Fulham 19 27 +27.6 54.6
10 Everton 19 22 +21.5 43.5
11 Sunderland 18 23 +20.4 43.4
12 Stoke City 19 21 +20.5 41.5
13 Wigan Athletic 19 19 +20.6 39.6
14 Blackburn Rovers 18 21 +18.5 39.5
15 Burnley 18 20 +16.6 36.6
16 Wolverhampton Wanderers 18 19 +17.1 36.1
17 Bolton Wanderers 20 18 +17.0 35.0
18 Hull City 18 18 +17.0 35.0
19 West Ham United 18 18 +15.3 33.3
20 Portsmouth 18 14 +12.7 26.7

 

[Gillespie]

What does the table look like at January 17th?

 

[Count Duckula]

What does the table look like at January 17th?

The same I would have thought. All three top teams won games they'd have been expected to win.

 

[Gillespie]

The same I would have thought. All three top teams won games they'd have been expected to win.

What? Bolton away? When would we be expected to win that?

 

[Plechazunga]

Update please gimps

 

[sincher]

Still gimps

 

[Plechazunga]

thanks for the speedy update.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Updated for fellow gimps.

 

[pillory]

I refuse to update until tonight's league games are over. And even then I'll only update if we knock out City.

 

[noodlehair]

What happens if at the end of the season, the adjusted league table ends up different to the real one?

Does it make us all a bunch of gimps spouting pointless waffle on an internet forum, or does it somehow count instead of the real one?

Also, if it ends up being the same, does that mean it's not adjusted anymore?

 

[pillory]

What happens if at the end of the season, the adjusted league table ends up different to the real one?

That's not possible.

Also, if it ends up being the same, does that mean it's not adjusted anymore?

It means we were right all along.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's fecking close to the real table already.

 

[Laphroaig]

Mine's updated too now.

You know the system is flawed when you get equal points for a draw away to Wolves and Brumbrap.

 

[Laphroaig]

Updated. Looking good.

 

[Valentino]

Can you update Mike's table?

 

[FlawlessThaw]

I think under Peter's system, it's United and Chelsea on -2 with Arsenal on -5. Liverpool are irrelevant.

 

[pillory]

I think under Peter's system, it's United and Chelsea on -2 with Arsenal on -5. Liverpool are irrelevant.

But if you use Peter's system with teams ranked according to how good they actually are and not how good we thought they would be before the season started, it's United -2, Chelsea -4, Arsenal -10 and Liverpool -15.

 

[Laphroaig]

Can you update Mike's table?

Mike'll have too do that himself. Anyway, I refer you to the previous two posts.

 

[Valentino]

But if you use Peter's system with teams ranked according to how good they actually are and not how good we thought they would be before the season started, it's United -2, Chelsea -4, Arsenal -10 and Liverpool -15.

so what that means is, if we win on Saturday and if Chelsea drop points on Sunday. suddenly we are the favourites for first time this season to win the league? wow it's like living a dream.

 

[Laphroaig]

According to pillory's adjusted adjusted league table, we're already two points ahead of Chelsea.

 

[pillory]

so what that means is, if we win on Saturday and if Chelsea drop points on Sunday. suddenly we are the favourites for first time this season to win the league? wow it's like living a dream.

See Laphroaig's post. What it basically means is that the system thinks our fixtures so far have been so much tougher than Chelsea's that Chelsea would have been four points ahead of us (instead of two) if we were both doing equally well. Which also means the system thinks our run-in is easier.

 

[Laphroaig]

The System - the poster previously known as peterstorey.

 

[pillory]

The System is actually peterstorey modified by pillory, ie what peterstorey would be like if he e-mailed me all his posts for approval and editing before he posted them. I'll sound out the mods on the possibility of creating a new user for this purpose.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'm guessing this looks pretty close to the real thing now?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Can one of you spackers please update this?

Ah thang ewe.

 

[Laphroaig]

Mine is already updated.

Arsenal are actually so far behind schedule that no longer can finish at 0 pts. The best they can do, if I'm not mistaken, is -1. (They can get 88 points at most, Rowem's target is 89.5.)

 

[peterstorey]

Mine is already updated.

Arsenal are actually so far behind schedule that no longer can finish at 0 pts. The best they can do, if I'm not mistaken, is -1.

Correct but our journey to -1 is easier than yours to 0.

 

[Laphroaig]

I don't know about that. We have a quite tough set of fixtures left, but I think there's 8.75 points to be won, and we only need 2.75 of those to reach the target. That's acheivable, especially if our current form continues.

And anyway it's far more probable that United end at 0 than Arsenal at -1, because you won't win all your remaining games.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Correct but our journey to -1 is easier than yours to 0.

The whole point of this adjusted thingummy is that the "journey" from now to the end of the season has already been factored in.

 

[peterstorey]

The whole point of this adjusted thingummy is that the "journey" from now to the end of the season has already been factored in.

It's my table and I'll interpret it just the way I want. The relative easiness of our remaining fixtures is reflected in us being only -5 in the adjusted table (-3 relatively) rather than real world -9.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Updated fellow benders.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's my table and I'll interpret it just the way I want. The relative easiness of our remaining fixtures is reflected in us being only -5 in the adjusted table (-3 relatively) rather than real world -9.

Anyone else noticed that Pete's usual sang froid has completely deserted him, these last few days?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It's my table and I'll interpret it just the way I want. The relative easiness of our remaining fixtures is reflected in us being only -5 in the adjusted table (-3 relatively) rather than real world -9.

The whole point is your easy run in is already factored in. You have very few points available to gain, only points to lose.

 

[peterstorey]

The whole point is your easy run in is already factored in. You have very few points available to gain, only points to lose.

I know you're my faithful amanuensis but the rel table says we're only 3 points behind (whereas we're -9 in the real world). That says we've played harder fixtures and have easier ones to come. Interestingly if you both lost this week and we won we'd be level.

 

[pillory]

Peter using current standings:

Man Utd -2
Chelsea -4
Arsenal -9

Rowem using current standings:

Chelsea -1.25
Man Utd -3
Arsenal -8.5

 

[peterstorey]

Peter using current standings:

Man Utd -2
Chelsea -4
Arsenal -9

That's your bastardized version, the real one says

Chelsea -2
Man Utd -2
Arsenal -5
(I think).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I know you're my faithful amanuensis but the rel table says we're only 3 points behind (whereas we're -9 in the real world). That says we've played harder fixtures and have easier ones to come.

Which is Mike's (and my) point. You're "only" 3 points behind because you've got this easy run to come i.e. It's already factored in.

Even allowing for this easy run in (and playing relegation threatened teams in March/April is rarely as easy as it seems) Arsenal are still off the pace, using whatever league table you prefer.

 

[Plechazunga]

pete... the relative easiness of the upcoming fixtures is irrelevant... it's only relevant when you're looking at the standard table. The entire reason behind your system is to remove the vagaries of the order of play from the standings.

 

[pillory]

That's your bastardized version, the real one says

Chelsea -2
Man Utd -2
Arsenal -5
(I think).

The real one overrates West Ham, which gives you two extra points. The same goes for Sunderland, but you'll have those two points back if they climb from 13th to 12th.

 

[peterstorey]

pete... the relative easiness of the upcoming fixtures is irrelevant... it's only relevant when you're looking at the standard table. The entire reason behind your system is to remove the vagaries of the order of play from the standings.

Well yes if you ONLY look at the alt table in which case we're only 3 pts behind. What I was doing was looking at both and rationalising the -3/-9 alt/real delta.