The Athletic: Why Man Utd's profit must not drop below £65m

JPRouve

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Yeah I know what it says I just don’t know what any of that and I suspect most people commenting don’t either.

Just seen an interesting post on Twitter stating United’s EBITDA over the last ten years:

EBITDA
It means what I put in the post, United EBITDA is way above 65m. United post way more than 65m before all expenses. This year is a bit different due to the pandemic but shareholders can fund the club and put the EBDITA at 65m or above.
 

Rood

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So there was an article last week by the mysterious 'Football Bureau of Investigation' which highlighted this £65m clause and The Athletic cite that article as their source of info but it has now been deleted and the associated Twitter has also been deleted so something shady going on: https://medium.com/football-bureau-of-investigation/jadon-sancho-the-circus-strategy-2904b788999e

anyway I would guess that clauses like that dont apply due to the extreme circumstances but, either way, lack of matchday revenue will definitely be hurting our finances - probably more than any other club bar Arsenal who also rely on it

Season ticket money alone would probably have bought in around £50m this summer which has not come
 

RedNed77

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That seemed to be what Luckhurst indicated I think.. That if the deal was to be done. then it'd be 'official' between 1st and 5th October. Unless I completely mis-understood it :lol:
Why would next quarter be any better financially?
 

Rood

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How on earth did the PL pass them as fit and proper owners. Plunging the world’s most profitable football club into debt. It’s madness.
Well there are no rules against debt in the PL, most clubs have some - its really nothing to do with the fit and proper test, perhaps it should be but thats another discussion
 

Cliche Guevara

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It means what I put in the post, United EBITDA is way above 65m. United post way more than 65m before all expenses. This year is a bit different due to the pandemic but shareholders can fund the club and put the EBDITA at 65m or above.
Yeah all I’m saying is I don’t know what is included in those figures but as you say, and as the Tweet I posted also points out, it is evident this isn’t just about making a ‘profit’.

I feel there is a lot of misinformation quickly being spread regarding this article. People are even talking about Administration (And immediately confusing that with liquidation).
 

JPRouve

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Maybe it is after the anniversary of when the loan was taken? Beats me.
If I remember correctly, this only applies to senior secured notes which have been refinanced in May 2015, they are due in 2027.
 

JPRouve

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Yeah all I’m saying is I don’t know what is included in those figures but as you say, and as the Tweet I posted also points out, it is evident this isn’t just about making a ‘profit’.

I feel there is a lot of misinformation quickly being spread regarding this article. People are even talking about Administration (And immediately confusing that with liquidation).
I listed what is included, that was the point of my first response. :)
 

Bestietom

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Think in a nutshell, it means Administrators will be brought in if we fall below this.
 

georgipep

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So there was an article last week by the mysterious 'Football Bureau of Investigation' which highlighted this £65m clause and The Athletic cite that article as their source of info but it has now been deleted and the associated Twitter has also been deleted so something shady going on: https://medium.com/football-bureau-of-investigation/jadon-sancho-the-circus-strategy-2904b788999e

anyway I would guess that clauses like that dont apply due to the extreme circumstances but, either way, lack of matchday revenue will definitely be hurting our finances - probably more than any other club bar Arsenal who also rely on it

Season ticket money alone would probably have bought in around £50m this summer which has not come
Account and all posts are now deleted.

 

stepic

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Thought the athletic were meant to be reputable as opposed to this kind of click baity rubbish articles.
 

Tom Cato

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I think that article insinuated that we have a covenant (like a condition on a loan repayment with Bank of America) that states our rolling 12 month EBITDA (earning before interest/tax/depreciation/amortization) should not be less 65m. It's a common thing with bank debt, so they know the borrower is in financial strength

This is reviewed quarterly, and the same article said that the issue is our merchandise/match-day revenue is down, and the deadweight we wanted to shift account for 20m of wages per year. So it's causing a problem in our ambitions for the transfer market.

I discussed this with a friend of mine, he said although plausible it's also worth considering a lot of banks are waiving some covenants in this environment or at least showing leniancy. So I'm unsure why BofA wouldn't do the same with a club like ours.
Just to state the obvious: Waivers are only likely to be granted to offset financial difficulty over income loss. As example: Airlines who many are now entirely dependant on loans from states or investor funding to survive. I don't see a good excemption ground based on a need for investments. The company would have to provie an outside guarantee for the waiver exemption in that case. Showing that income will decrease if x investment is not made could be a good reason for an evaluation but thats a though sell in a sporting company.

But that's just an educated opinion, the bank might very well think differently.
 

VP89

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Just to state the obvious: Waivers are only likely to be granted to offset financial difficulty over income loss. As example: Airlines who many are now entirely dependant on loans from states or investor funding to survive. I don't see a good excemption ground based on a need for investments. The company would have to provie an outside guarantee for the waiver exemption in that case. Showing that income will decrease if x investment is not made could be a good reason for an evaluation but thats a though sell in a sporting company.

But that's just an educated opinion, the bank might very well think differently.
Yeah, thats true too.
 

Nou_Camp99

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I'm no financial expert in the slightest I'll readily admit but I can't see how us going into administration would be a bad thing. It would almost certainly mean no more Glazers, no more Woodward and no more debt. What am I missing? There's no way we'd fold all together. Plenty of people would snap this club up at the prices Administrators would sell at. Plenty.

I'd take a few years rocking around midtable and out of Europe if it meant we could get them parasites out. We'd be back competing sooner than people think. And a new buyer would get the club considerably cheaper from administrators than they will from the Glazers directly. In fact we'll never be sold directly from the glazers as long as fans keep going and the share price remains fairly strong. We're not a good investment for anyone at 4bn and the Glazers know it. We're stuck with them forever unless our fanbase grow a backbone.
 

laughtersassassin

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Well there are no rules against debt in the PL, most clubs have some - its really nothing to do with the fit and proper test, perhaps it should be but thats another discussion
Well clearly it should be. Look at what Hicks and Gillette's debt did to Liverpool. Sent them into liquidation if it wasn't for the court systems.

No team should be allowed to be bought using a leveraged buyout and also Prem should bring in transfer restrictions for debt over a certain amount too imo.
 

r3idy

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Our debt covenants prevent our 12 month rolling profits from falling below that figure. Anything below that, and administrators could come in.
It's not as black and white as that. What it says is there could be penalties but it is unlikely. To quote the article.


“Manchester United are different. They are as copper-bottomed an investment prospect as you could expect. They have regular cash flows; quite an attractive proposition. But the covenants are there as protection.

“Just in case Man United go a bit mad in terms of spending money, these act as penalties for poor use of cash as far as the lenders are concerned.”
 

Cliche Guevara

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I'm no financial expert in the slightest I'll readily admit but I can't see how us going into administration would be a bad thing. It would almost certainly mean no more Glazers, no more Woodward and no more debt. What am I missing? There's no way we'd fold all together. Plenty of people would snap this club up at the prices Administrators would sell at. Plenty.

I'd take a few years rocking around midtable and out of Europe if it meant we could get them parasites out. We'd be back competing sooner than people think. And a new buyer would get the club considerably cheaper from administrators than they will from the Glazers directly. In fact we'll never be sold directly from the glazers as long as fans keep going and the share price remains fairly strong. We're not a good investment for anyone at 4bn and the Glazers know it. We're stuck with them forever unless our fanbase grow a backbone.

United aren’t insolvent. United are mega rich.
 

Nou_Camp99

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United aren’t insolvent. United are mega rich.
Don't think we are 'mega rich' as you and some others think we are. And over 1bn has left the club though non footballing reasons since 2005. How can that ever be a good thing?
 

Cliche Guevara

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Don't think we are 'mega rich' as you and some others think we are. And over 1bn has left the club though non footballing reasons since 2005. How can that ever be a good thing?
That can only happen when you are mega rich.

What we do with our money is one thing but there’s a fecking lot of it.
 

Revan

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It's an interesting idea but I think it would be emotionally jarring for many to see the club fold and reform under a new name. We'd still be subject to the ownership lottery then too. There's no guarantee that we'd get better owners than the Glazers.
Dude, the entire debt is just 400 million. The club is valued at a bit more than 3 billion. At worst possible scenario when the bank would like to take over cause we would be unable to pay debt etc, the Glazers would just sell as little as 15% of their stocks and be able to pay the entire debt.

This United going into administration has always been a MUST propaganda. It had less chances than me banging Scarlett Johansson.
 

Revan

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Debt for a profitable business is not a dirty word though. Most large businesses will be in debt to manage their working capital and maximise their potential to invest in assets to achieve a return. I would be surprised if other large football clubs have no debt, and if they don't, I would expect them to have a sugar daddy.
Sure, though most of the debt (in fact all, except the recent 150m) was not taken to benefit the club, but to buy the club and then put the debt on the club. So the previous debts are essentially for our ‘privilege’ to be owned by Glazers, which IMO should have been illegal (for a football club).

No problem at all with the latest 150m debt to cover Covid losses.
 

Hammondo

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Debt for a profitable business is not a dirty word though. Most large businesses will be in debt to manage their working capital and maximise their potential to invest in assets to achieve a return. I would be surprised if other large football clubs have no debt, and if they don't, I would expect them to have a sugar daddy.
We Didn't get our debt from investments, so there has been no future gain for us.

This means it's acted in the opposite way that normal debt does, it's only lowered our investment. We have basically become smaller because if it.
 

Traub

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I don't think that makes sense unfortunately. Player acquisition costs must be featuring as capex and not affect EBITDA (except agent fee and player bonus). To the extent player wages are an issue, that will be a problem for next quarter also as it's not like we are expecting sudden revenues next quarter either.

Plus even if we were to break the covenant we could probably take loan from another institution to pay back BoAF or negotiate with them as clearly the issue is beyond our control.
Yeah, the only thing could really be player wages. I'm pretty sure all wages are going to see a material bump this season due to now being in the champions league. Coupled with much lower revenue and our inability to offload the deadwood (these guys probably have great champions league clauses too), we may be getting much closer to our wages to revenue limit thus resulting in no further purchases.
 

Hammondo

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Dude, the entire debt is just 400 million. The club is valued at a bit more than 3 billion. At worst possible scenario when the bank would like to take over cause we would be unable to pay debt etc, the Glazers would just sell as little as 15% of their stocks and be able to pay the entire debt.

This United going into administration has always been a MUST propaganda. It had less chances than me banging Scarlett Johansson.
15% of their stocks?
 

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One important thing being missed is ‘It is important to note here the £65 million EBITDA does not include transfers — given it is before amortisation, which is how player acquisitions are recorded in the books — but wages do come into the equation.‘

Sorry if it’s already been posted.

Having read it, it’s a pretty nothing article in terms of United because of how attractive we are to banks as a prospect
 

RedNed77

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No idea.. Wouldn't have VDB's transfer in? I genuinely don't know.
I'm not sure myself, i was asking as I'm not sure how accounting works. I thought EBITDA was a rolling figure so it would be the same from 1 quarter to the next unless we had aged items drop off the book. I'm sure one our resident accountants can tell us.
 

limerickcitykid

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I'm not sure myself, i was asking as I'm not sure how accounting works. I thought EBITDA was a rolling figure so it would be the same from 1 quarter to the next unless we had aged items drop off the book. I'm sure one our resident accountants can tell us.
It is earnings so there is no rolling figure, it’s completely different every quarter based on that quarter’s revenue.

Transfer fees will also have no affect as they are amortized so are added back in
 

Classical Mechanic

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Dude, the entire debt is just 400 million. The club is valued at a bit more than 3 billion. At worst possible scenario when the bank would like to take over cause we would be unable to pay debt etc, the Glazers would just sell as little as 15% of their stocks and be able to pay the entire debt.

This United going into administration has always been a MUST propaganda. It had less chances than me banging Scarlett Johansson.
OK dude. I'm relaxed.
 

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That can only happen when you are mega rich.

What we do with our money is one thing but there’s a fecking lot of it.
In 2016 man utd received 131m Euros in gate receipts. With 2nd half of last season and next season's games looking to be played in empty stadiums, one can assume thats close to 200 million euros of revenue potentially lost over 18 months. I dont think we are as rich as you think
 

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Debt for a profitable business is not a dirty word though. Most large businesses will be in debt to manage their working capital and maximise their potential to invest in assets to achieve a return. I would be surprised if other large football clubs have no debt, and if they don't, I would expect them to have a sugar daddy.
Of course it's not. But you've sort of answered yourself. We didn't take this debt to manage working capital (player fees) or create new assets (stadium/ facilities). We did it to pay for ourselves in a leveraged buy out.

Don't get me wrong, I have no issues with us not spending more given the current finances that we have. But we continue to be run as a business (a badly managed one which is 80pct of the problem, really) whereas really United should be a social club with all cash flow getting reinvested back with no surpluses generated for equity holders. Not only do we have to generate surpluses for Glazers but also compete against clubs whose equity holders are happily burning cash for status or scale. It's.like trying to run a mom and pop shop against Amazon
 

Dante

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In 2016 man utd received 131m Euros in gate receipts. With 2nd half of last season and next season's games looking to be played in empty stadiums, one can assume thats close to 200 million euros of revenue potentially lost over 18 months. I dont think we are as rich as you think
This is a fair point.

And then you have to consider the way United structure all our player purchases in instalments over a number of years.

If United have financial obligations in 2020 that rely on the aforementioned 200 million euros of revenue, removing that revenue is going to stop us from being able to pay initial fees on transfers in this window.

Comparing United to Villa is not necessarily like for like. We don't know how much of our revenue is tied up in our short term liabilities compared to them.
 

Cliche Guevara

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In 2016 man utd received 131m Euros in gate receipts. With 2nd half of last season and next season's games looking to be played in empty stadiums, one can assume thats close to 200 million euros of revenue potentially lost over 18 months. I dont think we are as rich as you think
Well I’m not saying that’s not going to happen but we are regularly the richest football club in the world. We’re not just going to casually enter Administration.

And I’m not talking about money for transfers either.
 

Conor

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This reminds me of that movie, I think it was called 'The Bus That Couldn't Slow Down'.