Same. It was never principally about the maths. More, I couldn't see us hitting that kind of form until there was some evidence of it having actually started. It was a question of timing. Now I'm holding onto the hope Mata will be the catalyst that will ignite our season.
The Race for Fourth Place
- Thread starter KiD MoYeS
- Start date
With RVP, Rooney, Mata and Januzaj up front, we can't fail top 4.
By far our most damaging results have been games where we've conceded only once. I've no idea why people keep claiming our defence is the problem.
Teams above us for top four have similar defensive records.
4th Liverpool. For 53 Against 28
5th Spurs. For 29 Against 26
6th Everton. For 35 Against 20
7th United. For 36 Against 27
The only real standout is Liverpool's goal haul and possibly Everton's lean defence. Liverpool have just lost their most mobile defensive midfielder which will leave an already shaky defence shaking further. United similarly have lost their best defensive midfielder but have an option in Fellaini who is due back on the 28th.
If United could somehow start to find the back of the net, perhaps having two of the leagues deadliest strikers available and maybe signing one of the leagues best creative midfielders then the picture could change dramatically.
Everton I think is the problem to overcome and that's speculating that United do sort of their lean scoring record.
Liverpool are the team to beat for 4th. Spurs have got a new manager bounce but adebayor will revert to type soon enough and they will struggle for goals.
Evertons goals are also drying up, that bastard lukaku is in my fantasy side and has ruined it in the last 5 weeks.
Its all about liverpool. I actually think sturridge coming back may have a negative effect, they had stability with suarez as the lone striker, accommodating the two made them too top heavy as we saw against villa. Not saying they will crumble, not at all but is them we have to worry about and I'm quietly confident.
everton spurs and liverpool also still have fa cup as a distraction...of course we still have ecl, so that probably equals out
Evertons goals are also drying up, that bastard lukaku is in my fantasy side and has ruined it in the last 5 weeks.
Its all about liverpool. I actually think sturridge coming back may have a negative effect, they had stability with suarez as the lone striker, accommodating the two made them too top heavy as we saw against villa. Not saying they will crumble, not at all but is them we have to worry about and I'm quietly confident.
everton spurs and liverpool also still have fa cup as a distraction...of course we still have ecl, so that probably equals out
OK. Done a few calculations, and it doesn't look good...Here are the remaining fixtures for us, liverpool and Spurs with what i expect to be points gained for each game. Highlighted are the fixtures against top 8 (i.e newcastle and above).
* City H is a strange one. Common sense says a draw woul dbe a good result, but they may have already won the league by the time we play them...so may be easier.
To be honest, i think these are fair assessments of what the teams should reasonably expect to get. EVen if some of liverpools tougher games i.e Chelsea at Home and Everton at Home end up being draw and loss, thats still 74 points, equal with ours. That's very tight.
Hopefully someone can point out where i've been overly pessimistic. People may have a go at my decisions for our losses, but Arse Away, the way they are playing at home....Newcastle Away will be much more difficult than previous seasons and everton A....i dunno.
UTD ........ Liv ...... Spurs
Cardiff H 3 .... Ev H 3 ... City h0
Stoke A 3 ... WB A 3 ... Hull A 3
Ful H 3 ... Arse H 0 ... Eve H 1
Arse A 0 ... Ful A 3 ... New A 1
Palace A 3 ... Swan H 3 ... Nor A 3
West Br A 3 ... Soton A 3 ... Card H 3
Liv H 3 ... Sun H 3 ... Chel A 0
WH A 3 ... Utd A 0 ... Arse H 1
Villa H 3 ... Card A 3 ... Soton H 3
New A 0 ... Spurs H 1 ... Liv A 1
Hul H 3 ... WH A 3 ... Sun H 3
Eve A 0 ... City H 0 ... WB a 3
Nor H 3 ... Nor A 3 ... Ful H 3
Sun H 3 ... Chel H 1 ... Stoke A 3
Soton A 3 ... Pal A 3 ... WH A 3
City H 1* ... New H 3 ... Villa H 3
Total:
74 78 77
Cardiff H 3 .... Ev H 3 ... City h0
Stoke A 3 ... WB A 3 ... Hull A 3
Ful H 3 ... Arse H 0 ... Eve H 1
Arse A 0 ... Ful A 3 ... New A 1
Palace A 3 ... Swan H 3 ... Nor A 3
West Br A 3 ... Soton A 3 ... Card H 3
Liv H 3 ... Sun H 3 ... Chel A 0
WH A 3 ... Utd A 0 ... Arse H 1
Villa H 3 ... Card A 3 ... Soton H 3
New A 0 ... Spurs H 1 ... Liv A 1
Hul H 3 ... WH A 3 ... Sun H 3
Eve A 0 ... City H 0 ... WB a 3
Nor H 3 ... Nor A 3 ... Ful H 3
Sun H 3 ... Chel H 1 ... Stoke A 3
Soton A 3 ... Pal A 3 ... WH A 3
City H 1* ... New H 3 ... Villa H 3
Total:
74 78 77
* City H is a strange one. Common sense says a draw woul dbe a good result, but they may have already won the league by the time we play them...so may be easier.
To be honest, i think these are fair assessments of what the teams should reasonably expect to get. EVen if some of liverpools tougher games i.e Chelsea at Home and Everton at Home end up being draw and loss, thats still 74 points, equal with ours. That's very tight.
Hopefully someone can point out where i've been overly pessimistic. People may have a go at my decisions for our losses, but Arse Away, the way they are playing at home....Newcastle Away will be much more difficult than previous seasons and everton A....i dunno.
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It's not massively pessimistic, however in my opinion we are playing so badly at the moment it seems as if we could lose to anyone at any time, so if we get back to the sort of form where we're beating all of the teams you've indicated, I can't see us not getting points from any of those 3 away games. I'd say point at Arsenal, and one win/one loss against the other two.
I was thinking that, thats kinda best case scenario. Unfortunately it still means we need liverpool to drop points on Tuesday, lose at home to chelsea (as opposed to drawing). Maybe Newcastle or soton can steal a point...
That season will mean Liverpool not having a blip, I think they are due one. They also have a bad set of fixtures to finish on and with the added pressure the run in brings it might come down to experience.
Re. your fixture list: Spurs are playing City at WHL - not away.
It's impossible to tell at the moment, if Liverpool lose Saurez they won't have a chance, Spurs usually fade off as the pressure mounts, Everton have a chance but again may lack conviction. It's all ifs and buts, if we get RVP, Rooney, Mata and Januzaj firing on all cylinders I'd back us to be honest.
Cheers. Still no change in result.
Feels strange but we will need the likes of chelsea, arse, city, newcastle to do us sone favours
Like everyone else with Mata + Rooney + Januzaj + RVP all in the starting XI we surely can't help but score lots of goals and win lots of games. Hopefully the second half of this season will serve as a springboard for next season like the 05/06 season was
Because numbnuts, teams can't have a go at us cause of all the attacking space they'll leave behind.
You've got to be in denial if you don't think adding Mata to this squad, even with no further additions, doesn't elevate our claim for a top 4 finish.
We now have 3 of the top 5 most productive players in the league for the last 2 or 3 years?
He's a solution to one of the many things we are crying out for. I'm not going to be one of those idiots who claims its a guarantee that we're top 4 by May because of Mata, but I'll challenge anyone who says he doesn't provide an outlet and more quality to get to where we want to be.
If he's replacing one of Young, Kagawa or Valencia in our general starting XI most weeks, we have improved. The same way Ozil improves Arsenal by starting ahead of one of their less good players who played more frequently last season. The same way van Persie improved us by taking the place of Welbeck/Hernandez/Berbatov.
16 games to overcome a 6 point gap and 3 teams. I look forward to it.
We now have 3 of the top 5 most productive players in the league for the last 2 or 3 years?
He's a solution to one of the many things we are crying out for. I'm not going to be one of those idiots who claims its a guarantee that we're top 4 by May because of Mata, but I'll challenge anyone who says he doesn't provide an outlet and more quality to get to where we want to be.
If he's replacing one of Young, Kagawa or Valencia in our general starting XI most weeks, we have improved. The same way Ozil improves Arsenal by starting ahead of one of their less good players who played more frequently last season. The same way van Persie improved us by taking the place of Welbeck/Hernandez/Berbatov.
16 games to overcome a 6 point gap and 3 teams. I look forward to it.
Van Persie and Ozil are different situations completely to this Mata one. In those cases there was a world class manager at the helm of each of the clubs.
That would only be valid if we didn't already have players like Rooney and Van Persie who are top players and leave teams attacking us with the same problems. Buying Mata improves the side massively, but it hardly improves us defensively.
Jones and Giggs in CM for the rest of the season it is then.
What a load of crap, Wengers got a very similar recent record to Moyes and Liverpool where top at Christmas under Brendan Rogers
Oh yes? And what about all the attacking space that your attacking players leave behind when - ala Mata - they don't track back?
If you actually believe that your defence is always improved by being more attack minded, then I suggest you try a 4 - 0 - 6 formation and see where that gets you.
Mourinho had concerns about Mata's ability to play a balanced game and that's partly why he let him go. The notion that your defence is going to be improved by playing Mata is flakey to say the least.
What does where we are have anything to do with what I just said? You're telling me you think Moyes is comparable to Arsene or Fergie? Ok, mate.What a load of crap, Wengers got a very similar recent record to Moyes and Liverpool where top at Christmas under Brendan Rogers
So the effect of signing a world class player amongst returning world class players (from injury) won't give the entire club from the stands to the armchairs, the players to the manager a massive lift? Have you seen the post-signing reaction?
I've said quite clearly its not a sure thing but it could be that little spark we need to allow Moyes to put a different spin on things.
City won a league title under Mancini ffs
Who knows how comparable Moyes is to Wenger, they have operated in a similar area of the league for years and years with a vastly different budget. Moyes may well turn out to be the better of the two, he has time and money and the makings of one of the leagues best squads, your always counting those chickens aren't you.City won a league title under Mancini ffs
You were the one that brought in the comparison. A vastly different budget? I don't think so. I doubt it, but I can't predict the future. It doesn't look like he will based on what we've seen though.
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I personally think you will get 4th but this is a ridiculous statement, what side ever 'easily' goes on 10 game winning streaks? Even last season on your incredibly consistent season the maximum you went on was 7 games.
Really?City won a league title under Mancini ffs
Predicting the future is your specialist subject though and yes a vastly different budget with two vastly different qualities in squad, you could say Wenger and Moyes have similarities in what they have achieved given the levels and budgets they have operated in. And basing your opinion on half a season adjusting to taking over from the greatest manager the English leagues have ever seen is not so wise, if it's the same in two years then so be it.
Yes.
Just checked transferleague and it says they have had very similar net spends over the last 5 years.
And vastly different quality squads, net spend is scewed outrageously when your best players are being sold for tens of millions.
Net spend
Quick, we have GlastonSpur, barneyLFC and ItsEssexRob in the same thread at the same time....
Can we blow it up or something!?
Can we blow it up or something!?
To be fair Robs been great over the Mata matter and Barneys posts just get more and more comical.
Glaston on the other hand .....
My posts are always this comical.
But we also have gasmanc, the voice of reason to counterbalance the danger to us all. Moyes >= Wenger. Someone should tag that under his name.
I have yet to state that as a fact ma boy, but he's done quite well has Moyesy, to sit a place or two below Wengers elites all this while, what with Everton's sorry bunch of no marks, he's also done amazingly well to place that same sorry bunch above a Liverpool that has been rising from the ashes since it first became shite in the early 90's.
I like Mate, he is a very good player
Mancini is head and shoulders above Moyes as a manager. Out of the contenders for a top 4 place, imo United have by far the poorest manager. Lucky for you, you have the best players out of the contenders and players who know how to grind out results when the pressure is on.City won a league title under Mancini ffs
What about Tim Sherwood? Although yes, Wenger, Mourinho and pellegrini are obviously better. Remains to be seen about Rodgers although he has Liverpool playing good football but they have a small squad so that'll probably be their undoing.
Come off it, Dave. That's very sensationalist.
Moyes had a great record against Mancini if memory serves.
No no no
Mancini was dreadful, his man management was atrocious, not managing a single win that fateful year in Europe with the players at his disposal was criminal.
He had nicer hair than Moyes that's about it.
Sorry I forgot about Spurs. I do not know about Sherwood, he is unproven. He has made a good start and it will be interesting how he lines Spuds up against us this week.
Unfortunately I think United will finish 4th. It would be fantastic to see you flounder in mid table but I just think if Rooney and Van Persie get fit then they will fire you to the champs league places.