My favourite argument from him so far was his plea to people of Belarus: "Don't you realise that they [mysterious foreign powers] are using you as cannon fodder?".
It's like a school bully that asks a nerd why is he hitting himself.
The situation in Belarus
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It's like a school bully that asks a nerd why is he hitting himself.
Didn’t realise Vlad was 2 years older than Lukashenko. Feels like Lukashenko has been here for eternity.
Yeah, saw that today. If Lukashenko thinks Putin is his only option left, we might be looking at the end of Belarussian sovereignty pretty soon.
What happened to all the Russian mercenaries arrested by Lukashenko accusing Russian interference?
With Putin one never knows what game he is playing. He is capable of playing both sides.
Who had Annexation of Belarus for October in their 2020 bingo cards ?
I’m sure Putin is willing to give that helping hand but even he realizes that it’s impossible for Lukashenko to remain at this stage given the uproar there’s no coming back for him. Putin will bet on getting another of his puppets to take over from Lukashenko to give the Belorussians the change they’re demanding (even if it would be in the name only). Lukashenko is dead man walking now.
Well, it didn't stop him from supporting Yanukovich before. I don't think that he had anticipated this turnaround & I also don't think that he has a suitable puppet in place to actually turn this in his favour.
The parallels between Putin and Lukashenko are quite obvious and any newly-elected leader wouldn't want to closely align himself with Putin and his regime, even though the economical ties will remain close – you simply can not cut Belarus' from Russia at this point, especially in the time of a financial crisis, they're incredibly reliant on Russia as it's their main market for all of their export. And those parallels also pretty much force Putin to support Lukashenko until the very end – Belarus' overthrowing a president that had been in power for 26 years is sending the wrong message to every Russian who is tired of Putin and his politics.
It's a very weird situation. I really can't see what's going to happen now – I can't imagine Lukashenko turning it around and I have no idea what Putin is going to do (and he is certainly going to make a move soon).
They sent them back to Russia a couple days ago.
The big difference between Belarus' and Crimea & East Ukraine is that there were very strong pro-Russian movements in those regions. Ukraine was always very much divided between Western and Eastern parts with pro-European and pro-Russian views being dominant in those regions respectively. Crimea always had this nostalgic image of being a part of Russia & the crisis of the 90's (extreme poverty, crime, hunger etc.) became closely associated with Ukraine. Especially since in Sevastopol Russia had their harbour to station the Black Sea fleet and the whole city profited from it (Russian government sent a lot of money to sustain the fleet). So the tension was always there and Putin capitalised on that.
Belarus' is a very different country though. While they are very close to Russia ethnically and culturally, they are still a separate nation. They have their own identity and there's no real divide, linguistic or ethnical, that can be exploited here. Putin likes to support proxy forces that already exist in the country with men and weapons to make it look like it's an internal conflict – but in Belarus' there are no such groups, if you don't count the police. Groups that are created by ethnical, religious and similar reasons can be used as the basis for such intervention, but I doubt that a group is based on the fact that those people simply work together can be used as a foundation for something similar.
At least I hope so
Belarus' is a very different country though. While they are very close to Russia ethnically and culturally, they are still a separate nation. They have their own identity and there's no real divide, linguistic or ethnical, that can be exploited here. Putin likes to support proxy forces that already exist in the country with men and weapons to make it look like it's an internal conflict – but in Belarus' there are no such groups, if you don't count the police. Groups that are created by ethnical, religious and similar reasons can be used as the basis for such intervention, but I doubt that a group is based on the fact that those people simply work together can be used as a foundation for something similar.
At least I hope so
Adding to what @harms said, before the elections, Lukashenko was trying to regain some of his standing by promoting Belarus's national identity and distancing himself from Putin and Russia. Arresting these Russians was part of that scheme. Now Lukashenko sees that that has not helped and he's getting out of options (soon he'll have to choose between resigning or going for a total, violent crush of the protests), he seems to have gone back to his earlier position, with close ties with Russia. His problem was previously that the long-term outcome of that approach might be that he's forced to accept that Belarus becomes a Russian autonomous province; but I guess he now prefers that risk over his current alternatives.
That approach also works for Putin, cause as @harms says, there isn't really a sufficiently significant Russian element in Belarus to allow Putin to come to their 'rescue', like he did in Ukraine and the Crimea.
Apologies if this question causes offense, but could someone here articulate for me the national distinction between Russians and Belorussians? At what point in history did this distinction emerge, or has it always been understood to exist? And has it always carried political significance, or is that a product of modern history?
Lukashenko claims Putin has promised 'all sorts of help' . I am guessing they will help print the ballots for the referendum to join Russia as well.
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I assume at some point Lukashenko will invite Russian tanks to join his riding into Minsk and other cities to forcefully put down the protests like it's Czechoslovakia in 1968. All the while Donald Trump will say it's ok since Russia is basically in the name of the country.
And this point, if it happens, will be before the US elections. So it will be interesting to see if some readiness increases are happening in the russian military. They are quite good at doing these things under the radar, but with social media its not so easy.
No way. Russia is not the Soviet Union. We might see some little green men, but there won't be any Russian invasion.
It wouldn't be an invasion. It would be the Russians offering their neighbors vitally needed assistance in suppressing the protests. It may not be tanks, but little green men won't work as well in an area that isn't already pro-Russia.
It won't be an invasion. Official request for military assistance by the 'legitimate' Belarusian government.
Ah yes, the old “offered to help” move.
I always get emotional when I see gatherings like this fighting for their rights against tyranny. I hope as some people point out, help a la Ukraine or a la Vietnam doesn't happen
It's really like asking about any other two neighbouring countries what's the difference between them; you could argue all kinds of ways depending on the perspective you take. But if you go with the usual way national identity is discussed, I would say that they've never been the same. The name might suggest otherwise, but 'Belarus' doesn't mean it's Russia ('rus') with some white ('bela') in the name. From what I remember 'rus' was a way of referring to the wider region, with different names for different parts of it (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine). So the name link is geographic and linguistic, not cultural.
Surely those people on the streets are already more than the 10% or so they’ve assigned to his opponent?
Just wanted to say thanks for the informative posts in this thread. Power to the Belorussian people. It amazes me that the EU haven't stepped in before to protect them. Don't get me wrong I'm pro EU but you can't pick and choose people's freedom to democracy. Any resources that could help me become more informed on the situation?The big difference between Belarus' and Crimea & East Ukraine is that there were very strong pro-Russian movements in those regions. Ukraine was always very much divided between Western and Eastern parts with pro-European and pro-Russian views being dominant in those regions respectively. Crimea always had this nostalgic image of being a part of Russia & the crisis of the 90's (extreme poverty, crime, hunger etc.) became closely associated with Ukraine. Especially since in Sevastopol Russia had their harbour to station the Black Sea fleet and the whole city profited from it (Russian government sent a lot of money to sustain the fleet). So the tension was always there and Putin capitalised on that.
Belarus' is a very different country though. While they are very close to Russia ethnically and culturally, they are still a separate nation. They have their own identity and there's no real divide, linguistic or ethnical, that can be exploited here. Putin likes to support proxy forces that already exist in the country with men and weapons to make it look like it's an internal conflict – but in Belarus' there are no such groups, if you don't count the police. Groups that are created by ethnical, religious and similar reasons can be used as the basis for such intervention, but I doubt that a group is based on the fact that those people simply work together can be used as a foundation for something similar.
At least I hope so
There is nothing the EU can do here. It is neither a member state, nor a NATO ally . It is a country firmly within Russia's sphere of influence.
Exactly. The EU can make political statements (and probably would if someone cared to bring it up), but Belarus is not really of direct interest to them (cynical, I know) and the EU has no joint defence. NATO might think(!) of getting involved if Lukashenko starts killing protesters, but they'd also probably let it get pretty far before intervening, especially since this is in Russia's backyard. (As Russia would certainly see it.)
I'd expect the EU and NATO to have strong words and do fvckall until it seems save to get involved. And I don't see that happening now Lukashenko has restored his ties with Putin.
Meduza is one a few sources that translate at least part of their content to English:
https://meduza.io/en
They are far from ideal source, but they're the best that I can recommend.
I also don't think that they have an English-based mirrors, but the channels like nexta_live on telegram are worth the watch.
https://t.me/nexta_live
I don't see NATO even bringing the issue up for discussion , unless one of the neighbouring allies is worried that they themselves may get invaded , if at some point a large force has been mobilized near the border. And NATO can't do anything without US assistance, so even then feck all would happen.
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As the first tweet suggests, it doesn't mean anything yet, but it appears that these convoys could be on their way to Belarus. There were similar convoys of military vehicles photographed on their way to Rostov before entering Eastern Ukraine.
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Agreed. If those convoys are real, it's gonna get bloody. But if Russia is involved and there is no kind of alternative government that NATO could get behind (like there was in Ukraine), NATO won't do anything.
Thanks mate, had found it hard to find anything that I could properly understand or follow.
Ah my mistake then, I thought they were an EU member. Thanks for the info.
To be fair, at this point I don’t think that 600 people are going to make any difference. There are also no reports of them crossing the border so far, although I’m sure that they’re going to be stationed somewhere near it. They should’ve already been in Belarus if they were to go there directly.
Yeah, true. I meant in the sense that the convoys might be the start of Russian intervention, but you're right that nothing is actually happening so far. In fact, Lukashenko now made a move in the opposite direction, offering to share power (without giving up the presidency or new elections). At the same time, he's promoting stories about western powers behind the current protests and that NATO is building up its forces on the border. That would give a pretext for Russian intervention. So, it can still go either way.
The EU did responded now btw, voicing it's concerns about election fraud and the violent repression of protests, and preparing further sanctions against Belarus and specific state officials.
(Also, I should make clear that I have no special knowledge about Belarus; I'm just basing myself on fairly extensive reporting in my Dutch newspaper, which seems good as far as I can tell. Just trying to share the info and help keep this thread going.
)Which is, sadly, quite pointless
Not sure what response I would've preferred though, obviously any real intervention from European forces would provoke Putin and there's going to be another proxy war.
At the moment I'm just hoping that the Belarus elites, army generals etc. would see that Lukashenko is a lost cause and try ally themselves with the majority. And that Putin won't send the Russian army in.
Yeah, I hope that's where this offer to share power is going. It's a gesture of weakness by Lukashenko, and hopefully it nudges the elite further into giving up on him.Which is, sadly, quite pointless
Not sure what response I would've preferred though, obviously any real intervention from European forces would provoke Putin and there's going to be another proxy war.
At the moment I'm just hoping that the Belarus elites, army generals etc. would see that Lukashenko is a lost cause and try ally themselves with the majority. And that Putin won't send the Russian army in.
I know the EU thing is useless; but at least they've finally said something... I agree that there is nothing else we could have really expected them to do.
iirc that was the language the soviets used for hungary and prague too.
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What are the realistic options here? Russia won’t allow Belarus to go over to the other camp and end up with its real border at Smolensk. The.EU in 2020 has no appetite to invest heavily in a poor agricultural country, even without the strategic risks involved. The US has elections coming up and the incumbent couldn’t care less about this issue. As for Belarus itself, they sell most of their produce to Russia (potash is their only real export earner) and rely on cheap gas imports. At best, I see it as a meet the old boss, same as the old boss scenario.
It's a little disturbing how many younger western people from the comfort of their homes are calling out the protesters as stooges of the CIA/EU. It's stripping them of their own agency about the direction of their own country. Why do they have to resort to such simplistic takes?
I don't know if it has been mentioned but Belarus are one of the few European nations not member of the Council of Europe, they are complete outsiders from a diplomatic standpoint and not particularly liked by everyone.
Its easy when you live in an actual democracy.