Transfer Tweets - Manchester United - 2023/24

UnitedSofa

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How many times do we as a forum have to be told NOT to talk about something before it sinks in? feck me. Take this chat off the forum. I’m sick of reading absolute drivel.
 

Woziak

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Yeah, could be although I’d be incredibly surprised if they could keep things this quiet whilst being at any sort of advanced stage.

An alternative possibility is that Murtough etc are trying to right the very obvious mistakes of the Woodward era. A more worrying alternative is that the Glazers have decided to postpone/cancel the sale and know they need to have a decent transfer window to try and take the sting out of the inevitable protests that would take place following such an announcement.

They really do have to sell the club, The leveraged buy out was a 20 year loan of £535m and so far the club has only serviced the internet and all of the capital is still owed, if this is not paid by 2025, the Glazers are liable for the debt as guarantors. They inherited all the assets from Malcolm Glazer on his death but all his debts to. They either sell 100% or sell a large stake to pay off the capital debt owed, with interest rates rising they are running out of time and quickly?
 

croadyman

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They really do have to sell the club, The leveraged buy out was a 20 year loan of £535m and so far the club has only serviced the internet and all of the capital is still owed, if this is not paid by 2025, the Glazers are liable for the debt as guarantors. They inherited all the assets from Malcolm Glazer on his death but all his debts to. They either sell 100% or sell a large stake to pay off the capital debt owed, with interest rates rising they are running out of time and quickly?
Still don't think they are gonna sell now sadly
 

croadyman

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I think they have or will and we’ll find out more by September but the final buy out won’t be til November/ December 23
Some think they are waiting until the window shuts but don't believe that at all
 

ATXRedDevil

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They really do have to sell the club, The leveraged buy out was a 20 year loan of £535m and so far the club has only serviced the internet and all of the capital is still owed, if this is not paid by 2025, the Glazers are liable for the debt as guarantors. They inherited all the assets from Malcolm Glazer on his death but all his debts to. They either sell 100% or sell a large stake to pay off the capital debt owed, with interest rates rising they are running out of time and quickly?
This is all wrong. The club only has one debt facility that’s due in 2025, and it’s a revolving credit facility entered into in the mid 10s with only £75m on it (as of 6/30/22). The rest of the debt is in notes and a term loan, all due in 2027.
Also, debt maturity has nothing to do with impetus to sell. You just… refinance. The Glazers already refinanced once. Do you think most businesses pay off their debt or service it and refinance it before it becomes due?
 

Woziak

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This is all wrong. The club only has one debt facility that’s due in 2025, and it’s a revolving credit facility entered into in the mid 10s with only £75m on it (as of 6/30/22). The rest of the debt is in notes and a term loan, all due in 2027.
Also, debt maturity has nothing to do with impetus to sell. You just… refinance. The Glazers already refinanced once. Do you think most businesses pay off their debt or service it and refinance it before it becomes due?
Your clearly missing the point here, I’ll explain; New FSP rules state that you can only spend 90% of your turnover on wages, Financials, Expenses, Net transfer including existing amortised transfer fees and this will reduce to 70% in season 2025/26. If you are servicing a debt of £535M and paying interest on this, this will show on your financial accounts and show a loss on the line of £30-40m to service the debt, the Glazers have never put any money into the club so there is no 3 year FFP benefit.


Assuming turnover next year increases from this year so goes up from predicted £630M to to £670m next season 24/25, the club can spend 80% of their turnover on wages, financials, expenses, Agent fees etc that means the threshold would be £536m total spend, assuming wages resumes to £375m due to CL increase clauses, similar financial P&L to last year £100m loss, then add the existing amortised transfer debt of £307m which is reported at £96m annually hove just spent £571m without signing any new players, agent fees or interest on the existing debt. Even if Qatar bought the club they would have to pay off the club debt and the transfer debt to be able to actually do anything significant in the transfer market going forward. The small FFP fine this summer is nothing compared to what might happen in the next two to three seasons if the Glazers stay.

Look through the last 3 years accounts and you will see the revolving credit card is normally paid off at the end of the season as the club takes it annual fees for fans season tickets. Without investment, united under Glazer management would be bankrupt in 3 years, yes they can recycle debt and restructure debt but interest rates are rising and all it would take is one bad season where the club finishes outside of the CL.

The debt that you mention is with multiple lenders as well and is not as straight forward to service as people assume, the Glazers once owned multiple shopping centres in the US but foreclosed some after the Us financial problems of 2008, they are not adverse to bad financial business decisions.

We are still waiting for last years 4th quarter but £115m previous years loss is a worrying trend.

https://ir.manutd.com/financial-information/annual-reports/2022.aspx
 
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Big Ben Foster

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This is all wrong. The club only has one debt facility that’s due in 2025, and it’s a revolving credit facility entered into in the mid 10s with only £75m on it (as of 6/30/22). The rest of the debt is in notes and a term loan, all due in 2027.
Also, debt maturity has nothing to do with impetus to sell. You just… refinance. The Glazers already refinanced once. Do you think most businesses pay off their debt or service it and refinance it before it becomes due?
Refinancing isn't a very good idea in this current interest rate environment.
 

Woziak

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Refinancing isn't a very good idea in this current interest rate environment.
Exactly clearly he or she is unaware of the new Financial Sustainability rules which start this season, if you are servicing debt with interest payments of £20-40m and you intend to take dividends that model is now untenable just like a LBO of a football club in 2023, If you continue to run your football club and lose money, then as an owner you can put up to £60-90m into the club over a 3 year period to offset the financial loss, we all know the Glazers are never going to do that which means they can no longer take dividends and if they do not get their house into financial order they will incur more fines for the club and potentially worse?
 

city-puma

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Your clearly missing the point here, I’ll explain; New FSP rules state that you can only spend 90% of your turnover on wages, Financials, Expenses, Net transfer including existing amortised transfer fees and this will reduce to 70% in season 2025/26. If you are servicing a debt of £535M and paying interest on this, this will show on your financial accounts and show a loss on the line of £30-40m to service the debt, the Glazers have never put any money into the club so there is no 3 year FFP benefit.


Assuming turnover next year increases from this year so goes up from predicted £630M to to £670m next season 24/25, the club can spend 80% of their turnover on wages, financials, expenses, Agent fees etc that means the threshold would be £536m total spend, assuming wages resumes to £375m due to CL increase clauses, similar financial P&L to last year £100m loss, then add the existing amortised transfer debt of £307m which is reported at £96m annually hove just spent £571m without signing any new players, agent fees or interest on the existing debt. Even if Qatar bought the club they would have to pay off the club debt and the transfer debt to be able to actually do anything significant in the transfer market going forward. The small FFP fine this summer is nothing compared to what might happen in the next two to three seasons if the Glazers stay.

Look through the last 3 years accounts and you will see the revolving credit card is normally paid off at the end of the season as the club takes it annual fees for fans season tickets. Without investment, united under Glazer management would be bankrupt in 3 years, yes they can recycle debt and restructure debt but interest rates are rising and all it would take is one bad season where the club finishes outside of the CL.

The debt that you mention is with multiple lenders as well and is not as straight forward to service as people assume, the Glazers once owned multiple shopping centres in the US but foreclosed some after the Us financial problems of 2008, they are not adverse to bad financial business decisions.

We are still waiting for last years 4th quarter but £115m previous years loss is a worrying trend.

https://ir.manutd.com/financial-information/annual-reports/2022.aspx
It’s very worrying and therefore they have to sell.
However, just checked what shows on FA (financial analysis) of Bloomberg terminal. The adjusted net income for fiscal year 2022 is -96.6 mil USD. For fiscal year 2023 LTM (2023-03-31), it is -90.4 mil USD. The 2023 est is -27.1 mil USD. Let’s see what’s the final number on Sept 22 when Q4 earnings release comes out. But, it looks like the financial situation has been stabilized and recovered out of pandemic.
The debt is increasingly tough to manage in a few years. Under current interest rate level which could potentially rise up even further, getting new debt to wind down the existing ones faces very high rate.
 

McTerminator

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Whilst this really should have been resolved by now, the process sounds quite rigorous. It sounds like Arnold is getting as wide a view as possible on the impact before making a decision, which is right when dealing with such an issue.
Let’s be honest, he’s looking for an opportunity to bring Greenwood back without ruining his own career/being cancelled.

Nobody in their right mind would want the responsibility of making the call here.
 

lysglimt

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Let’s be honest, he’s looking for an opportunity to bring Greenwood back without ruining his own career/being cancelled.

Nobody in their right mind would want the responsibility of making the call here.
No but thats why they have insanely high wages, to make decisions like that. But my point is - they can postpone that decision 1 week, 2 months - there will be no new information to be had. They have all the facts that they ever will get - waiting 2 months wont make it any easier
 

friendlytramp

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Greenwood’s not coming back. They can’t just cancel his contract as they’d end up being sued and they can’t just keep paying him. They will reintegrate him into the squad to get him up to fitness so he can be sold or go on loan.

The biggest clue was the squad number announcement and the specific reference to Garnacho’s shirt number potentially changing depending on sales. With Hojlund taking Fred’s 17, the only number he would be after is 11.
 

ThanksBoss26

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Greenwood’s not coming back. They can’t just cancel his contract as they’d end up being sued and they can’t just keep paying him. They will reintegrate him into the squad to get him up to fitness so he can be sold or go on loan.

The biggest clue was the squad number announcement and the specific reference to Garnacho’s shirt number potentially changing depending on sales. With Hojlund taking Fred’s 17, the only number he would be after is 11.
Possibly, though he’s started wearing number 28 for Argentina so my first thought was he’ll take that when Pellistri goes on loan.
 

massey

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Greenwood’s not coming back. They can’t just cancel his contract as they’d end up being sued and they can’t just keep paying him. They will reintegrate him into the squad to get him up to fitness so he can be sold or go on loan.

The biggest clue was the squad number announcement and the specific reference to Garnacho’s shirt number potentially changing depending on sales. With Hojlund taking Fred’s 17, the only number he would be after is 11.
Garnacho should have the 11 it should have been stripped off greenwood ages ago.
 

gajender

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Greenwood’s not coming back. They can’t just cancel his contract as they’d end up being sued and they can’t just keep paying him. They will reintegrate him into the squad to get him up to fitness so he can be sold or go on loan.

The biggest clue was the squad number announcement and the specific reference to Garnacho’s shirt number potentially changing depending on sales. With Hojlund taking Fred’s 17, the only number he would be after is 11.
Call me cynical but not buying this at all , Greenwood is coming back all this song and dance about consulting different stake holders including taking input from Women team and Women Employees is just PR exercise to prepare for his eventual return

If they really wanted not to bring Greenwood back they would have easily done so quietly and sold or released him after paying up his contract which wouldn't be much anyway as ultimate decision still lies with United management , they just intend to create illusion of thorough process so it seems most were on board when he is reintegrated .

PS
Apologies mods feel free to remove this post as it slipped my mind we are not at liberty to discuss this .
 
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UnitedSofa

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How many times do we as a forum have to be told NOT to talk about something before it sinks in? feck me. Take this chat off the forum. I’m sick of reading absolute drivel.
Does someone have to get stung with a libel case before people actually STOP talking about it? Fed up of seeing pages and pages of it. I wake up & yet again I see drivel.
 

Smores

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Does someone have to get stung with a libel case before people actually STOP talking about it? Fed up of seeing pages and pages of it. I wake up & yet again I see drivel.
Bit dramatic, it's a simple fact that he isn't in the playing squad and may or may not become so. No one is discussing the topic that can't be discussed.

Doing it in the transfer tweet thread however is fecking annoying.
 

Giggsyking

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Tier 2:

United are consulting various key stakeholders, including members of the Women's team. All of the info will be passed over to Richard Arnold, who'll make the final decision.
He has been added in our official game partner efootball. Konami removed him when we suspended him, today he has ben added back. I think this is an indication that the club and the sponsors have already made a decision.
 

MDFC Manager

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He has been added in our official game partner efootball. Konami removed him when we suspended him, today he has ben added back. I think this is an indication that the club and the sponsors have already made a decision.
Very interesting
 

Blood Mage

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I'm open to having Greenwood back but I'm quite nervous about the shit storm that's going to follow.
 

Von Mistelroum

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Does seem like they're paving the way back for Greenwood. I think it things had stayed as they were after this had come out, then there would have been no way back, but with his partner seemingly forgiving whatever happened (I say whatever as we only had a fraction of the available information) and him having a kid with her etc., I can't really justify condemning him forever. People can change and since I don't know exactly what happened, I have to assume that he's changed and move on. I would accept him back in the side, but wouldn't celebrate his achievements as that would feel too weird, just those of the club.
 

Dazzmondo

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It's going to happen, club have made the decision, some people will be annoyed, others will get over it. Delaying it further won't change anything. Just make the decision, announce it, and face the ramifications.