Trevoh Chalobah

Teja

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I think unless we are investing in at least 2 in this area, we are going to see Maguire and either Lindelof or Evans stay
I have a newfound respect for Maguire after he slogged through all the stick he got, played himself into form and was actually quietly good this season. I think he even kept Varane on the bench for a bit although that might just be Ten Hag being an idiot. I don't think we should actively look to sell him.

He's not the right partner for Martinez but I think he can play the role that Martinez plays for us adequately.
 

simonhch

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Well if they can get close to £100m for Maatsen, Hall and Hutchinson and they’re still trying to sell Chalobah and especially Gallagher then that should tell you the finances are probably a lot worse than we think. The SDs not rating Chalobah and Gallagher is stupid and quite frankly irrelevant because I guarantee Maresca, if asked, would prefer to keep them and play them, especially Gallagher. They’re trying to sell them because they have to.
Back of the envelope maths….

Chelsea have made 34 signings for over 1bn in the last three windows, plus they are still carrying the final year(s) of Lukaku’s amortised transfer (and some others). All that means that by my calculations they are carrying amortised transfers costs of approximately 190-200m per season right now. Which is a lot. It’s especially a lot when their current wage bill is now the highest in the division at 404m per year. Meaning total player costs are around 609m per season currently. This set against last year’s record revenue of 656m. 93%. And that’s before we get to any other costs. Not a pretty picture.

Some of that has already been offset by sales. But next year there will be no CL again and reality will start to bite. To be sustainable under PSR there will surely have to be sales, and the wage bill will have to get cut considerably on a bloated squad. Then there is the ability to actually sign players, which probably requires further sales. And none of this takes into consideration costs from constantly hiring and firing the whole coaching set up.

It’s possible the picture is rosier than I’ve painted it, but the year before the club lost 115m, and I’d imagine it’ll be the same or worse this year. I think it’s pretty clear that sales need to happen and they have to happen with players who have no remaining amortised transfer costs on the books. So fully amortised or homegrown players. Those sales will hit the books in their entirety, all at once, as pure profit. Hence Gallagher and Chabaloh being on the block, and Mount the year before.

Edited for accuracy.
 
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TheMagicFoolBus

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Back of the envelope maths….

Chelsea have made 34 signings for over 1bn in the last three windows, plus they are still carrying the final year(s) of Lukaku’s amortised transfer (and some others). All that means that by my calculations they are carrying amortised transfers costs of approximately 190-200m per season right now. Which is a lot. It’s especially a lot when their current wage bill is now the highest in the division at 502m per year. Meaning total player costs are around 700m per season currently. This set against last year’s record revenue of 656m. Not a pretty picture.

Some of that has already been offset by sales. But next year there will be no CL again and reality will start to bite. To be sustainable under PSR there will surely have to be sales, and the wage bill will have to get cut considerably on a bloated squad. Then there is the ability to actually sign players, which probably requires further sales. And none of this takes into consideration costs from constantly hiring and firing the whole coaching set up.

It’s possible the picture is rosier than I’ve painted it, but the year before the club lost 115m, and I’d imagine it’ll be the same or worse this year. I think it’s pretty clear that sales need to happen and they have to happen with players who have no remaining amortised transfer costs on the books. So fully amortised or homegrown players. Those sales will hit the books in their entirety, all at once, as pure profit. Hence Gallagher and Chabaloh being on the block, and Mount the year before.
Um, where on earth are you getting that from?
 

simonhch

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Um, where on earth are you getting that from?
Sports Business Journal, but it’s in dollars, apologies. 400m pounds.

The latest figures I’ve just seen are a 404m pound wage bill and a 205m pound amortisation schedule p/a. So the back of the envelope amortisation was pretty bang on. That’s 609m player costs vs 656m revenue. Alarming, and revenue is going down without CL football. I’ve adjusted the figures accordingly but the conclusions are identical.
 

TheMagicFoolBus

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Sports Business Journal, but it’s in dollars, apologies. 400m pounds.

The latest figures I’ve just seen are a 404m pound wage bill and a 205m pound amortisation schedule p/a. So the back of the envelope amortisation was pretty bang on. That’s 609m player costs vs 656m revenue. Alarming, and revenue is going down without CL football. I’ve adjusted the figures accordingly but the conclusions are identical.
Gotcha, makes sense - also aligns with what The Athletic have published:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5537794/2024/06/03/chelsea-finances-kepa-hazard-maatsen/

"Those showed Chelsea had the Premier League’s highest operating loss (-£249m) and second-highest wage bill (£404m) for the reporting period taking in the 2022-23 season."