Turmoil in Brazil

[Adisa]

Things aren't looking good for Brazil right now both economically and politically. Been in recession for two years, Petrobras scandal claiming head after head etc.
Last week, the predecessor to Dilma Rousseff was arrested in connection with the Petrobras scandal. In what is seen as an attempt to evade any criminal proceedings, Rousseff named him as her Chief of Staff so he could make use of immunity against any charge. There have been mass protests against the current government almost on a weekly basis in brazil for two years now but demonstrations this week have been very intense.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lula-of-office-amid-mounting-political-crisis

 

[Giant Midget]

How has she not been impeached yet? It's absolutely scandalous that she's still in place.

 

[PedroMendez]

If you´d jail every corrupt politician in Brazil, nobody would be left to govern. Obviously it is always ironic to see left-leaning governments engaging in rampant corruption, while preaching social justice and economic equality.

 

[MTF]

How has she not been impeached yet? It's absolutely scandalous that she's still in place.

Because out of 513 congressmen and 81 senators, we maybe, just maybe have 20-30 serious ones who care about their constituents and/or the country. The rest trust that by having their hands on the machine they'll have enough funds come the next election cycle to get enough ads to drive the votes and keep them in place. So the incentive to be opposition to the government is very low, and bringing those congressmen around to supporting impeachment has been very slow.

Her campaign was also illegally financed, so that should've been the end of her too. But serious countries aren't serious, and Brazil is definitely in the category.

If you´d jail every corrupt politician in Brazil, nobody would be left to govern. Obviously it is always ironic to see left-leaning governments engaging in rampant corruption, while preaching social justice and economic equality.

You'd always find new people to govern. But it is true that there are so many targets beyond just the group currently in power, it would take forever and boundless determination. The funny thing is when you have to vote for someone you suspect is corrupt in a run-off because he/she is the lesser of two evils, and yet you also hope they get found out and arrested.


Overall, I think she'll be impeached or resign by May.

 

[PedroMendez]

Who´d win an election, if she gets kicked out? PT again or could another party take advantage of the situation? Who´d be the candidate for the PT? Rui Falcão?

edit: Now that I think about it: What is even more depressing than all those scandals in Brazil is, that most countries in LA have governments that are significantly worse. Chile might be one of the few exceptions.

 

[berbatrick]

Five of the members of the impeachment commission are themselves being criminally investigated as part of the corruption scandal. That includes Paulo Maluf, who faces an Interpol warrant for his arrest and has not been able to leave the country for years; he has been sentenced in France to three years in prison for money laundering. Of the 65 members of the House impeachment committee, 36 currently face pending legal proceedings.

In the lower house of Congress, the leader of the impeachment movement, the evangelical extremist Eduardo Cunha, was found to have maintainedmultiple secret Swiss bank accounts, where he stored millions of dollars that prosecutors believe were received as bribes. He is the target of multiple active criminal investigations.

Meanwhile, Senator Aécio Neves, the leader of the Brazilian opposition who Dilma narrowly defeated in the 2014 election, has himself been implicated at least five separate times in the corruption scandal. One of the prosecutors’ newest star witnesses just accused him of accepting bribes. That witness also implicated the country’s vice president, Michel Temer, of the opposition party PMDB, who would replace Dilma if she were impeached.

Reminds me of the mood in India in 2014. Anyone with a clean-ish record, no matter the rest of his/her policies, can sweep the next election.

 

[Jippy]

Reminds me of the mood in India in 2014. Anyone with a clean-ish record, no matter the rest of his/her policies, can sweep the next election.

feck me that impeachment committee! Talk about rotten to the core.

 

[MTF]

Who´d win an election, if she gets kicked out? PT again or could another party take advantage of the situation? Who´d be the candidate for the PT? Rui Falcão?

edit: Now that I think about it: What is even more depressing than all those scandals in Brazil is, that most countries in LA have governments that are significantly worse. Chile might be one of the few exceptions.

PT might not exist, because the party can legally be terminated because of all the crimes. If they're around I've heard it could be Nelson Jobim, former Supreme Court Justice, Minister of Defense and other posts. He's a weird character though, not historically with PT and he was actually the US Ambassador's main source of info from the government during his time as Minister of Defense (a revelation of wikileaks). They could try bringing in Ciro Gomes as well, but I'm not sure he'd accept. They do lack strong political figures that aren't tarnished, and this is in part to blame on Lula himself and the corruption scandals in 2005 (Mensalão). Lula pushed out many of his potential successors, including Ciro Gomes I mentioned and Eduardo Campos (now deceased), and then drafted Dilma who'd never held public office.

Marina Silva from Rede Sustentabilidade (a Green party) shows up leading the polls, because she's the main non-establishment figure. She could take it, but again she was in the lead of the last elections and just tapered out and didn't even make the run-off. She's not ruthless or inspiring enough. José Serra of PSDB is probably liking his chances. He'll likely be Finance Minister if Michel Temer takes over the Presidency in a few months. If they deliver economic stability and the beginning of a turnaround by 2018 it could be a repeat of 1994, when Fernando Henrique ran on his success as Finance Minister for Itamar Franco, who'd taken over when Collor was impeached.

Finally, look out for Jair Bolsonaro, kind of a Trump style bombastic conservative figure (at least he's actually a politician and not a TV personality), and Aecio Neves who was 1% from winning the 2014 election. He's been implicated in some of the scandals but so far all accusations have been dismissed by judges or the prosecutors for lack of evidence, except for the most recent ones. He's lost some of his thunder by being implicated so much and by not being the most vocal opposition figure, which would be expected from the guy who almost won the election and has a seat in Senate.

On your edit, what do you think of Macri overall?

 

[MTF]

Also, if Sergio Moro (the judge who started looking into suspicious monthly payments to a gas station and brought down the entire government by the time he was done) ran for President I think he'd take it . I hope he doesn't though, it would kind of tarnish the whole process we've been through by making it political. But I did get to thinking about what he'd like to do with his life after this is all done. Hope he just accepts a promotion in the near future and disappears for a while.

 

[George Owen]

Who´d win an election, if she gets kicked out? PT again or could another party take advantage of the situation? Who´d be the candidate for the PT? Rui Falcão?

edit: Now that I think about it: What is even more depressing than all those scandals in Brazil is, that most countries in LA have governments that are significantly worse. Chile might be one of the few exceptions.

i wish...

99.9% of the chilean politicians are working for corporations or big families. Many are facing justice (specially right wing, but also many of left wing) this days and many more to come.

 

[PedroMendez]

PT might not exist, because the party can legally be terminated because of all the crimes. If they're around I've heard it could be Nelson Jobim, former Supreme Court Justice, Minister of Defense and other posts. He's a weird character though, not historically with PT and he was actually the US Ambassador's main source of info from the government during his time as Minister of Defense (a revelation of wikileaks). They could try bringing in Ciro Gomes as well, but I'm not sure he'd accept. They do lack strong political figures that aren't tarnished, and this is in part to blame on Lula himself and the corruption scandals in 2005 (Mensalão). Lula pushed out many of his potential successors, including Ciro Gomes I mentioned and Eduardo Campos (now deceased), and then drafted Dilma who'd never held public office.

Marina Silva from Rede Sustentabilidade (a Green party) shows up leading the polls, because she's the main non-establishment figure. She could take it, but again she was in the lead of the last elections and just tapered out and didn't even make the run-off. She's not ruthless or inspiring enough. José Serra of PSDB is probably liking his chances. He'll likely be Finance Minister if Michel Temer takes over the Presidency in a few months. If they deliver economic stability and the beginning of a turnaround by 2018 it could be a repeat of 1994, when Fernando Henrique ran on his success as Finance Minister for Itamar Franco, who'd taken over when Collor was impeached.

Finally, look out for Jair Bolsonaro, kind of a Trump style bombastic conservative figure (at least he's actually a politician and not a TV personality), and Aecio Neves who was 1% from winning the 2014 election. He's been implicated in some of the scandals but so far all accusations have been dismissed by judges or the prosecutors for lack of evidence, except for the most recent ones. He's lost some of his thunder by being implicated so much and by not being the most vocal opposition figure, which would be expected from the guy who almost won the election and has a seat in Senate.

On your edit, what do you think of Macri overall?

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the short explanation.

First of all I am happy, that Kirchner is gone. Kirchnerismo is worse than cancer.

You talked about the lesser of two evils and that is one of those cases. The FPV is just too toxic and even a turd would look good in comparison. They are consistently on the wrong end of almost every issue and shamelessly use the country for their own benefit.

I am not totally in love with Macri, even so he is eventually going to be one of the best president that Argentina had for quite a while. He´ll be somewhat responsible on fiscal issues and understands the benefits of a free market economy. Mercosur might get another push. He wants to reform the income tax. They talk too much about security/law-and-order stuff, but that is a rather minor complain. He also has an okay track-record in Buenos Aires (one of his first actions was to kick out 2000 state employees, who didn´t do anything. “Los Ñoquis”). My biggest issue with him is, that he needed to team up with a bunch of cronies (e.g. UCR) to get elected. They´ll all want their cut. The whole system is just rotten to its core and there are so many people in the government and in the states, who take their share.

So overall I am very happy, that he got elected, but I don´t expect any miracles.

edit: just too make that clear. He is no saint himself and has all the shady business relations, that are sadly just too normal for people like him. Still he seems to understand the advantages of a free market economy and that might help Arg.

edit2: @George Owen : That is sadly just common and to be expected. The policy output is not that terrible (by the the very low standards of government in LA) or what is your take on the issue?

 

[George Owen]

edit2: @George Owen : That is sadly just common and to be expected. The policy output is not that terrible (by the the very low standards of government in LA) or what is your take on the issue?

You clearly have no idea about Chilean policy or you wouldn't be saying that. We are the most social unequal country in south America and one of the most unequal globally.

Everything is for sale in Chile. Education, health, pensions... you are pretty much on your own here.

You think free market is a good thing but the reality is completely different. You need to find a equilibrium. The number of collusions being discovered in the last years have been ridiculous. Pharmacies colluded, supermarkets colluded, chicken factories colluded, toiler paper makers colluded... chileans fecking chileans. That's what unrestricted capitalism have amounted to.

Yeah, here in Chile we can buy the latest fecking Iphone cheap, but i would much rather live in a country with top class free public education and cheap books, like Argentina.

if you want to know a bit more about corruption and policy output in Chile, i invite you read this investigative news site: http://ciperchile.cl/

edit. Pablo Longueira, ex senator and minister of Piñera (Chilean equivalent to Macri), is being investigated for bribary charges. why? He was the main pusher for the current royalty mining law. Leaked emails showed how the CEO of one of the mining companies was sending him drafts of how the law should look like. lol. And not only that... a lot of money was given to him as well. (over a million dollars was given to him during the period the bill was being developed.). That's only one example of what is currently going on. And as i said before, its not only the right wing, but the whole spectrum of politicians in this type of situations.

 

[MTF]

You clearly have no idea about Chilean policy or you wouldn't be saying that. We are the most social unequal country in south America and one of the most unequal globally.

Wat? Have you noticed the country the thread is discussing? We don't speak Spanish, but its still in Latin America. I don't want to get into a miserable discussion of who's shittest, but most people would probably agree that in South America Chile is the one-eyed king.

 

[PedroMendez]

You clearly have no idea about Chilean policy or you wouldn't be saying that. We are the most social unequal country in south America and one of the most unequal globally.

Everything is for sale in Chile. Education, health, pensions... you are pretty much on your own here.

You think free market is a good thing but the reality is completely different. You need to find a equilibrium. The number of collusions being discovered in the last years have been ridiculous. Pharmacies colluded, supermarkets colluded, chicken factories colluded, toiler paper makers colluded... chileans fecking chileans. That's what unrestricted capitalism have amounted to.

Yeah, here in Chile we can buy the latest fecking Iphone cheap, but i would much rather live in a country with top class free public education and cheap books, like Argentina.

if you want to know a bit more about corruption and policy output in Chile, i invite you read this investigative news site: http://ciperchile.cl/

edit. Pablo Longueira, ex senator and minister of Piñera (Chilean equivalent to Macri), is being investigated for bribary charges. why? He was the main pusher for the current royalty mining law. Leaked emails showed how the CEO of one of the mining companies was sending him drafts of how the law should look like. lol. And not only that... a lot of money was given to him as well. (over a million dollars was given to him during the period the bill was being developed.). That's only one example of what is currently going on. And as i said before, its not only the right wing, but the whole spectrum of politicians in this type of situations.

cheers. I havn´t lived in Chile so I don´t have a clue besides a very superficial idea about its macro economic performance. I was genuinely asking about your perspective.

All I can tell you about Arg is, that the policies are not sustainable and I won´t thank a politician for handing out gifts, while ruining the country in high-speed. Corruption is sadly so wide-spread, that even the most outrageous cases don´t really create any response. What can you do when everyone is corrupt?

That is why I think the case of the PT in Brazil is quite remarkable. They were genuine idealists in the 90s and ended up being involved in one scandal after another. It even started before Lula won in 2002 and got worse with every day. Politics does seem to corrupt people.

 

[George Owen]

Wat? Have you noticed the country the thread is discussing? We don't speak Spanish, but its still in Latin America. I don't want to get into a miserable discussion of who's shittest, but most people would probably agree that in South America Chile is the one-eyed king.

the only thing i would agree we are number 1, is football. Champions of america. (i wouldn't be surprised if we PAYED to win it... our football president was arrested and forced to travel to USA and help the FBI with the fifa corruption investigations... i hope not though)

I'm just saying Chile is not corruption free. On the contrary...

cheers. I havn´t lived in Chile so I don´t have a clue besides a very superficial idea about its macro economic performance. I was genuinely asking about your perspective.

All I can tell you about Arg is, that the policies are not sustainable and I won´t thank a politician for handing out gifts, while ruining the country in high-speed. Corruption is sadly so wide-spread, that even the most outrageous cases don´t really create any response. What can you do when everyone is corrupt?

That is why I think the case of the PT in Brazil is quite remarkable. They were genuine idealists in the 90s and ended up being involved in one scandal after another. It even started before Lula won in 2002 and got worse with every day. Politics does seem to corrupt people.

Its a tough one. Hope rests on the youth and their unlimited access to information, something we didn't have back then. Its on them to step up and fight for a better world. They have to update the contents of the political debate.

Hopefully some people out of the establishment in Brazil are gaining momentum. In Chile (like USA), you need to be part of one of the two sides (left-right lol) or no one will listen, so we are fecked in the sense that our next president might be Piñera or Lagos, two ex president, both corrupt as feck.

The political debate in Chile still "Pinochet vs Allende" "fecking communist!" and "fecking fascist!" "you want Chile to be a fecking Cuba" "Stop sucking USA ass hole" blah blah... and its been over 25 years since democracy returned . Obviously on purpose, people brainwashed after years of TV propaganda. Its like nobody knows you can pick the best elements of each system (capitalism-socialism) and merge it in one and be fecking awesome.

Anyway, access to information is the key in my opinion. And massification of internet provides that freedom. Is getting harder and harder to keep dirty deeds hidden for long.

I truly think we gonna look back in 10 more years and see this era as the beginning of the transition to catch up with developed countries.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Anyway, access to information is the key in my opinion. And massification of internet provides that freedom. Is getting harder and harder to keep dirty deeds hidden for long.

Not if the internet is a corporatized entity, which is becoming increasingly true.

 

[PedroMendez]

I havn´t had the time to read it yet, but this could be an interesting article.
http://politica.estadao.com.br/noti...igadas-a-personagens-da-lava-jato,10000024501

 

[Nobby style]

George Owen said: ↑
Anyway, access to information is the key in my opinion. And massification of internet provides that freedom. Is getting harder and harder to keep dirty deeds hidden for long.

Yes, it´s called "democracy."

 

[MTF]

I havn´t had the time to read it yet, but this could be an interesting article.
http://politica.estadao.com.br/noti...igadas-a-personagens-da-lava-jato,10000024501

Given the level of what's happening and what's already been proved, I don't think the leak per se will add much. In other countries they can kick off investigations, in Brazil we're into the latter innings of investigation. The papers also aren't admissible as evidence from what I've read, Brazil's AG will request documents from Panama's government, but then Panama's government must go about obtaining them within local laws.

It might also be counter-productive to public perception. A former Supreme Court Justice's name showed up (Joaquim Barbosa), and he's already explained that he made the company to buy an apartment in Miami, and that it's all stated in his tax filings. If it checks out its a reasonable explanation. Same with Delfim Netto, who's an economist I despise, but nonetheless he said he formed a company to do international consulting but never actually go started, so the company shut down two years ago having never even had a bank account. Again, as long as it checks out there's no wrong doing. If all that comes out are names of people who ever had companies set-up by Mossack Fonseca it might just add to the perception that "they're all crooks".

 

[Nobby style]

the only thing i would agree we are number 1, is football. Champions of america. (i wouldn't be surprised if we PAYED to win it... our football president was arrested and forced to travel to USA and help the FBI with the fifa corruption investigations... i hope not though)

I'm just saying Chile is not corruption free. On the contrary...

/QUOTE]

http://www.reuters.com/article/panama-tax-chile-idUSL2N1771Z1

The president of the Chilean branch of Transparency International resigned on Monday after docum

Delaveau was among tens of thousands of people named in a leak of four decades' worth of documents from Mossack Fonseca, a Panamanian law firm that specialized in setting up offshore businesses.ents from a Panamanian law firm showed he was linked to at least five offshore companies.

"Gonzalo Delaveau presented his resignation as the president of Transparency Chile, which has been accepted by the board of directors," the national body wrote on Twitter.

 

[PedroMendez]

Given the level of what's happening and what's already been proved, I don't think the leak per se will add much. In other countries they can kick off investigations, in Brazil we're into the latter innings of investigation. The papers also aren't admissible as evidence from what I've read, Brazil's AG will request documents from Panama's government, but then Panama's government must go about obtaining them within local laws.

It might also be counter-productive to public perception. A former Supreme Court Justice's name showed up (Joaquim Barbosa), and he's already explained that he made the company to buy an apartment in Miami, and that it's all stated in his tax filings. If it checks out its a reasonable explanation. Same with Delfim Netto, who's an economist I despise, but nonetheless he said he formed a company to do international consulting but never actually go started, so the company shut down two years ago having never even had a bank account. Again, as long as it checks out there's no wrong doing. If all that comes out are names of people who ever had companies set-up by Mossack Fonseca it might just add to the perception that "they're all crooks".

I guess that is true.
This Cunha guy really is a lovely character so.

 

[MTF]

I guess that is true.
This Cunha guy really is a lovely character so.

I admire the proficiency of his villainy. The fact that he still sits as Speaker of the House, or as a member of congress at all is astounding. He needs to be gotten rid of right after Ms. Rousseff if possible, and must go even if she does not. It reflects both the level of corruption and/or opportunism in both congress and the AG that he's still around (him and others).

 

[PedroMendez]

just to go a bit off topic (and I know that those statistic have to taken with a pinch of salt):

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/03/daily-chart-18

The other main difference between the rankings is the number of Brazilian cities: 32 feature here compared with an already substantial 22 in our previous chart. More than 10% of all the world's homicides are in Brazil, and although the rate has fallen in its largest cities it has started increasing in smaller ones. The violence is borne by its poorer black population: between 2000 and 2014 the murder rate of whites has fallen by 14% but risen by 18% among black people. Murders of women have also increased by 12%. The problem is likely to grow as the economy falters and young men are unable to get jobs

 

[MTF]

It is a bit of a Pan-American phenomena, isn't it? I wonder why, vs. Eastern Europe, Asia, etc.

 

[PedroMendez]

Oh it is. And while some countries are excluded (Venezuela) and the data might be dodgy for others (Mexico), having 32 out of 50 cities located in Brazil is not great. Still I agree that it is not a national, but a regional problem. I thought about it a lot, but it is very difficult to explain. Fast growing urban areas, where the youth unemployment is sky-high and the state is nonexistent is probably one of the driving forces. Still it is difficult to explain why other regions don´t have similar problems.

 

[MTF]

Oh it is. And while some countries are excluded (Venezuela) and the data might be dodgy for others (Mexico), having 32 out of 50 cities located in Brazil is not great. Still I agree that it is not a national, but a regional problem. I thought about it a lot, but it is very difficult to explain. Fast growing urban areas, where the youth unemployment is sky-high and the state is nonexistent is probably one of the driving forces. Still it is difficult to explain why other regions don´t have similar problems.

Mind, I wasn't looking to let Brazil off the hook. But I think I understand to an extent why Brazil is so violent (what you mentioned), everyone always talks about the US and its gun issues, but then you group in Mexico, Venezuela, much of the data from Central America. Its more surprising to me that the continent as a whole underperforms the rest of the world in safety, given the variety of levels of development and particularities of each country.

 

[barros]

Mind, I wasn't looking to let Brazil off the hook. But I think I understand to an extent why Brazil is so violent (what you mentioned), everyone always talks about the US and its gun issues, but then you group in Mexico, Venezuela, much of the data from Central America. Its more surprising to me that the continent as a whole underperforms the rest of the world in safety, given the variety of levels of development and particularities of each country.

Damn I almost moved to Brazil in 1974 or 1975 but I have a lot of family there and always wanted Brazil to be like US but them I remember who colonized Brazil and I lose any hope.

 

[PedroMendez]

Anyone familiar with Roberto DeMatta´s work? Is it still worth reading or heavily outdated?

 

[PedroMendez]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/perry-anderson/crisis-in-brazil

a long and in-depth explanation of the current crisis and the different sides. There are a couple of things, that I don´t agree with, but overall it is a brilliant article.

 

[MTF]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/perry-anderson/crisis-in-brazil

a long and in-depth explanation of the current crisis and the different sides. There are a couple of things, that I don´t agree with, but overall it is a brilliant article.

Long read, but will get to it later. Also about DaMatta, obviously he's very frequently mentioned and quoted, but never piqued my interest.

We should be in the final inning of this chapter of this grander mess. Anyone with some sense would resign on Sunday when/if the house approves the impeachment hearings by 2/3, but Dilma will probably hang around another 2-4 weeks until they drag her out of the Presidential palace by order of the Senate.

 

[Jippy]

Bizarrely, Brazil is the top-performing stock market YTD, albeit it's coming from a very low base after a 63pc peak to trough fall. Hideous debt to GDP ratio too.

 

[MTF]

Bizarrely, Brazil is the top-performing stock market YTD, albeit it's coming from a very low base after a 63pc peak to trough fall. Hideous debt to GDP ratio too.

Exactly, its just the sentiment/expectations move from "this shit is so fecked" through 2015, to "there's a light at the end of this tunnel" this year with impeachment growing closer.

 

[Jippy]

Exactly, its just the sentiment/expectations move from "this shit is so fecked" through 2015, to "there's a light at the end of this tunnel" this year with impeachment growing closer.

Yep, the stock market will always move far ahead of the macro picture in anticipation. Thing is, when you vote for change, you never know if the alternative is better.

 

[PedroMendez]

The stock market is not a very good indicator for the economic development nowadays; especially in the short run. Brazil has various structural problems and I wouldnt trust any government to do anything meaningful about it. Any lasting solution would probably take at least a decade. Furthermore it will take long time until commodities prices are going to rally again, which is pretty bad for Brazil.
I am not a fan of PT policy, but the alternative is hardly exciting. Leftist/"liberal"/conservative/centrist clientelism is more or less equally bad.

 

[MTF]

The stock market is not a very good indicator for the economic development nowadays; especially in the short run. Brazil has various structural problems and I wouldnt trust any government to do anything meaningful about it. Any lasting solution would probably take at least a decade. Furthermore it will take long time until commodities prices are going to rally again, which is pretty bad for Brazil.
I am not a fan of PT policy, but the alternative is hardly exciting. Leftist/"liberal"/conservative/centrist clientelism is more or less equally bad.

That's why I said sentiment. I do believe in actual mid-term improvement, simply because of a move away from doctored national accounts and no actual commitment to cutting the federal budget in the face of dwindling tax revenue, which would very likely end in high inflation or default. Its not the corruption element I'm looking forward to getting rid of - that will persist - its the ideology element I'm glad will be out, hopefully replaced by pragmatism.

 

[MTF]

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n08/perry-anderson/crisis-in-brazil

a long and in-depth explanation of the current crisis and the different sides. There are a couple of things, that I don´t agree with, but overall it is a brilliant article.

Its quite biased, no?

The third they never acquired. In Brazil, a further means of extracting confessions from those under pre-emptive lock and key was devised: threats to extend the same treatment to their wives and children.

This is only because they often have their wife's or offspring's name on accounts, shell companies, etc. No family member has been held for the sake of it during this entire thing. Makes it sound like the most gratuitous and unfair miscarriage of justice ever, the way the author puts it.

The Brazilian judiciary, like its colleagues in the apparatus of prosecutors and federal police, can be assumed to share much the same outlook as the country’s middle class, to whose better-off layers they belong, with that class’s typical preferences and prejudices. No worker’s party, however emollient, is likely to attract particular sympathy in this milieu.

This is essentially true, the political positions of the middle-class and higher are different from the rest of the population (as election results per income and education levels show), but it's phrased as if their preferences and prejudices are illegitimate. That their status is the base of their opinions, and not their intellect.

What was it to do? Cunha still held the keys to impeachment, which if successful would cancel the election of 2014, and ensure Neves victory in the rerun.

What? Cancel? Rerun? Impeachment causes none of those.

There, the media have been monolithically partisan in their hostility to the PT, and uncritical of the strategy of leaks and pressures from Curitiba, of which they have acted as the boombox.

Folha de São Paulo is a top 3 paper, and annoyingly friendly to PT.

 

[PedroMendez]

I don´t think that it is particularly biased. Part of its implications about what constitutes good policies are clearly biased towards the PT (he was/is a Marxist after all) and I disagree with those, but that doesn´t really change his arguments.

Just to address some of those points

a) The media in Brazil is not “neutral” or balanced. Media doesn´t have to be, but it is worth remembering that the majority of media outlets are clearly biased against the PT. Having one big paper being friendly to it doesn’t change that; especially when TV is so important. If another military coup d'etat would happen in Brazil (hypothetically), Globo would be their first cheerleader again.

b) The bias of the judiciary is a bit more complex and nuanced. Their case against the PT is totally legit. Yet it is questionable if they fight with similar enthusiasm against corruption from the other side. Also due-process does matter and is extremely important. The ends don´t justify illegitimate means. When the same judge, who needs to deliver sound judgement about the PT, is seen on pro-opposition rallies, while violating due process, his neutrality has to be questioned.

What is your comment on the following passage?

Can the same be said of the opposition at large? Moro released his incendiary wiretaps on 16 March. A week later, police in São Paulo raided the home of one of the executives of Odebrecht, the largest construction firm in Latin America, whose head had just been sentenced to 19 years for bribery. There they found a set of tables listing 316 leading politicians with amounts of cash against their names. Included were senior figures in the PSDB, PMDB and many other parties – a panorama of Brazil’s political class. Objectively speaking, this list was a louder thunderclap than the exchange between Dilma and Lula. But a less convenient one: from Curitiba, Moro took immediate action in the opposite direction, ordering the tables be put under seal to prevent further speculation. Still, an alarm had gone off: Lava Jato could get out of hand. If Dilma was to be toppled, it was critical it be done before the Odebrecht tables could threaten her accusers. Within a few days, the PMDB had announced that it was abandoning the government, and the countdown to a vote on impeachment began. The three-fifths majority of the lower chamber which had looked too high a bar at the beginning of the year was now within reach. Respectable opinion has taken in its stride the farce of a Congress packed with thieves, Cunha at their head, solemnly deposing a president for budgetary irregularity.

c) My main concern is the following: If you impeach Dilma on the grounds of “cooking the books”, you could probably do the same with almost all future governments. Heck, even the German government uses “creative accounting” to hide parts of the budget, that doesn´t fit their narrative. While it is legal what they do, the concept is quite similar.

The opposition parties in Brazil failed to beat the PT in fair elections. It is not hard to see why they failed, despite the PT struggling quite a bit: Because they suck. They are a bunch of corrupt cronies, often with former ties to the military government, who have little program despite enriching themselves. All they care about is controlling the big government ministries, so they can redistribute wealth to their clients. They know that they struggle in normal elections, especially if Lula would come back. Now they see an opportunity to win the presidency and they take it. That is worrying. Under normal circumstances I´d applaud this impeachment process and cheer for it. Yet in the current context the issue is not just that black/white.


d) The record of the PT about inflation isn´t that bad. For most parts they produced similar numbers like their predecessors. Yes, during the last years things got messy and they are to blame for it. Yet I doubt that any other government would have handled the situation significantly different under similar circumstances.

e) I am not really here to defend the PT (great sentence after defending them all the time). I am not their fan and I´d prefer to criticize them for all their shortcomings. Yet that is not the important point in the current debate.

 

[PedroMendez]

http://noticias.uol.com.br/politica...aneja-atentado-terrorista.htm?cmpid=tw-uolnot


Bolsonaro really is a character.
Him and Trump in power would be hilarious.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Exactly, its just the sentiment/expectations move from "this shit is so fecked" through 2015, to "there's a light at the end of this tunnel" this year with impeachment growing closer.

Hence the saying, "Brazil is the 'next big thing'. And will always be the 'next big thing.'"

(Or something like that)

 

[Raoul]

Has she been sacked yet ?