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Probably the best one-sentence description of the season so far. We're on the extreme end of both goalkeeping stat (PSxG+/-) and scoring stats (np:G-xG).
It tells a very old story: we're not very good at consistently creating high-quality chances.
You don’t need xG to know that’s the way this season will likely pan out.
Something to do with coaching perhaps
Another example of xG confirming what was obvious to anyone with functional eyes and a brain. We were all huff and puff with zero cutting edge. Despite what @ivaldo was trying to convince me.
That's true but I think for most fans on the question of Ole there's the battle between the emotional self and the rational self. We may win a title with Ole with everything running for us in a given season but there's nothing to suggest we can sustain success with him in charge. We're at a point now where we have a very good squad and should be looking to match Liverpool and City. We need to look beyond Ole and for a new manager if we want to capitalise on the talent we now have in my opinion.
Agree with everything especially the conclusion. No amount of player upgrades will help us bridge the gap enough to be able to win the league as the difference will continue to be the quality gap in coaching.
But someone told me that Tuchel is the best manager in the game whereas Ole is the worst.
How much did the Martial decision to pass instead of finish account for? How about the nailed on pen that we missed?
They've played away at Arsenal and Liverpool, and half of their game with Liverpool they had 10 men. So the fact their xG is the same both directions does not look good on us.
It's early days in that regard. They performed far better than us last season in terms of xGD. So far we're pretty much repeating the pattern of seasons past under Ole.
Compare their fixtures to ours.
You could also argue that it's easier to create big chances against teams that dare to play a more open game. The exception being if the opposing team is vastly superior(which isn't the case here).
I hope that we do. If we continue with the same pattern then we will finish the season with 99 points and 99 goals
Winning trophies sortof matter.
Or we could just improve
Yes, we will need our strikers to score goals if we want to win the league?
To be honest I would not be surprised if we ended the season on extreme (positive) end of goals scored - xG ratio, in a team of Ronaldo Greenwood and Bruno that's possible. I wouldn't expect the same trend to continue on the other side of the pitch.
Nice post. I hate stats of expected goals from certain positions on the field. Every team plays and creates chances differently.
You could also argue that the world is flat, to be fair. Just that it is a poor argument.
xG accounts the quality of chances. You outperform xG if you are lucky, or your strikers are clinical. We have arguably the most clinical player in the world, and Bruno/Greenwood are quite clinical too, so it is likely that we are gonna outperform xG. At the same time, the lack of high-quality chances is gonna catch us, and as usual we will finish 10+ points below the champions. Very hard to be lucky for an entire season.
What is a high quality chance
Chances that are easy to score. For example Noble’s opportunity at the end of the match yesterday, or one on one striker vs keeper cases, or the million tap ins City score every season.
completely agree with this. I actually think Ole could be a good DOF at United but sadly if he gets hooked I’m not sure he would take such a position.
We have been scoring since Bruno joined us and haven’t slowed down since? So the XG naysayers have been right so far?
Does it take into account the player one on one with keeper or his style of play? Or how the tap in came about? Curious
Hardly comparable examples.
In terms of xG algorithm, any chance where shot is taken centrally from the goal and close to it (and not a header). So like Revan mentioned, City tend to play football which result in high number of high quality chances. It doesn't require a striker to convert those. They often end up north of xG=2, which is pretty high.
No, it's average (hence the expected). So if you have a good strikers they can turn low quality chances into goals, like we do. But you'll struggle when they are out. That's why people mention we rely a lot on individual brilliance.
We did. Bruno. And he made a massive difference. Our problem is that our ability to create goals (our xG, if you will) is totally reliant on someone who can be a bit flaky and can’t possibly play every game.
It is not the be all and end all, but it is the best stat we have. It shows a much better picture than ball possession, or number of shots. It also confirms what we can see with eyes, that we are not very good at creating chances in a systematic manner.
For most part no. Which is why teams with great attackers outperform their xG and teams with great keepers outperform their xGA. If Ronaldo and De Gea continue their form (both doable), we might outperform both xG and xGA. For example, in Mourinho’s second season, Caf was claiming that our defense was great, which it wasn’t. We saw teams repeatedly being in good positions to score, but De Gea saving us repeatedly. xGA confirmed that, De Gea outperformed more than any other keeper their xGA.
Pretty much every team in average creates less chances, scores less goals and gets fewer points when playing a top opposition team compared to playing a bad team. Regardless of how the bad team defends more.
I mean you could argue its easier to play at Anfield with 10 men if you want, but I don't think you'd get very far.
