UPDATED!!! United vs Top 6 - An Injury/Availability Analysis - Still Happy With 6th?

[BenitoSTARR]

Based on a discussion in the Erik Ten Hag thread I present in my view the biggest reason we've failed to perform consistently at a high level whilst other teams haven't suffered as much in the top 6.

Each side in the Top 6 (Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and United) have been broken down player by player into their % mins in the PL also with their (in my opinion) best XI and a brief comment as to how this looks in terms of key player losses and who has played in their stead. It also take a small look into the future in some cases with current injuries.

75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)

Liverpool
Alisson 88%
Trent 75% Van Dijk 89% Konate 53% Robertson 40%
Mac Allister 68%
Jones 43% Szobozslai 77%
Salah 81% ____________ Díaz 69%
Núñez 66%​

The only position up for debate here is Jones but as you can see Liverpool's overall availability taking into account rotations is healthy. The best players, Salah, Van Dijk, Alisson, Szobozslai and Trent all have played at least 3/4 of the PL season minutes to date with Robertson and Thiago arguably the only significant players absent through injury for a longer period. The rest of the squad has been used more in rotation as and when. Joe Gomez is the player who I wouldn't consider in the strongest XI but has played more minutes than Robertson. Injury wise Matip is ACL so out for the season, Szobozsali has a hamstring issue but could be back next week and Thiago is unlikely to return anytime soon but its not a 'big big injury', Trent has a knee issue unsure if he will or won't play on it and Salah has a thigh injury but could return this week.

Spoiler: Liverpool Full Squad PL Mins %

Alisson 88%
Kelleher 13%*
Adrian 0%*

TAA 75%
Bradley 7%

Van Dijk 89%
Konate 53%
Joe Gomez 54%
Matip 36%
Quansah 16%

Robertson 40%
Tsimikas 31%

Mac Allister 68%
Endo 38%
Bajcetic 0%


Szoboszlai 77%
Jones 43%
Thiago 0%
Gravenberch 38%

Salah 81%
Diaz 69%
Jota 47%
Gakpo 43%
Elliot 26%

Doak 1%

Núñez 66%

Manchester City
Ederson 92%
Walker 92% Dias 76% Ake 66% Gvardiol 71%
Rodri 83%
De Brunye 11% Bernardo 73%
Foden 90% Haaland 72% Doku 52%​

Now there could be arguments made for the inclusion of several players here such is the strength in depth of the Man City squad but even allowing for any change you'd choose to make the only long term injuries have been De Brunye (massive of course) and Stones. The rest have been used in rotation as you would expect with a squad as strong as City's. I'd say they are the 2nd least affected side by injuries in the top 6. The only positions I consider up for debate in this starting XI are Doku and Ake. Álvarez is actually the most played outfield player with 94% mins played and would be the one to replace De Brunye in the most played XI. Currently no players are significantly injured Kovacic has a knock, Gvardiol being assessed and Grealish a hip issue being assessed.

Spoiler: Man City Full Squad PL Mins %

Ederson 92%
Ortega 8%*
Carson 0%*

Walker 92%
Lewis 22%

Dias 76%
Aké 66%
Stones 29%
Akanji 64%

Gvardiol 71%
Gomez 1%

Rodri 83%
Kovacic 42%
Nunes 30%


De Brunye 11%
Bernardo Silva 73%

Foden 90%
Doku 52%
Grealish 34%
Bobb 6%

Haaland 72%
Álvarez 94%

Arsenal
Raya 83%
White 84% Saliba 100% Gabriel 84% Zinchenko 66%
Rice 96%
Ødegaard 87% Havertz 67%
Saka 92% Jesus 51% Martinelli 72%
​

Arsenal's first choice XI feels a bit more clear cut but I would accept an argument for Partey over Havertz. Regardless you can see they've had their best XI available the majority of the season the only exception being Jesus who still have over 1/2 the available minutes for Arsenal. Partey and Timber stand out as longer injuries to squad players but beyond that they've not been hit too badly. Saliba 100% is mind boggling considering his role! Timber is expected back April, Zinchenko has a calf issue but could be back this week, Partey has a hamstring issue no idea when back, Vieira is back in the next few weeks and Jesus has a knee problem but could be back within days too.

Spoiler: Arsenal Full Squad PL Mins %

Raya 83%
Ramsdale 21%
Hein 0%*

White 84%
Tomiyasu 29%
Soares 1%

Saliba 100%
Gabriel 84%
Timber 2%
Kiwor 20%

Zinchenko 66%

Rice 96%
Partey 12%
Jorginho 23%
Elneny 1%

Ødegaard 87%
Havertz 67%
Vieira 11%
Smith Rowe 10%

Martinelli 72%
Trossard 38%

Saka 92%
Nelson 6%

Jesus 51%
Nketiah 47%

Tottenham Hotspur
Vicario 100%
Porro 96% Romero 71% van de Ven 60% Udogie 82%
Sarr 59% Bissouma 58%
Kulusevski 86% Maddison 53% Son 80%
Richardson 59%
​

The Spurs midfield pairing is very much up for debate so argue amongst yourselves as to who you'd swap in but this myth of Spurs injuries have been as bad across the season just isn't statistically true. They have absolutely been impacted by losing Maddison but beyond that the loss isn't anywhere near our levels. They are I'd say the 2nd most affected by injuries out of the top 6. No major injuries to report currently but Lo Celso back this week, Solomon out for the foreseeable with knee issues and Sessegnon no idea.

Spoiler: Tottenham Full Squad PL Mins %

Forster 0%*
Austin 0%*
Whiteman 0%*

Porro 96%
Royal 36%

Romero 71%
van de Ven 60%
Dragusin 2*
Dier* 11%

Udogie 82%
Davies 42%
Sessengnon 0%

Sarr 59%
Bissouma 58%
Bentacur 19%
Højbjerg 45%
Skipp 26%

Maddison 53%
Lo Celso 19%

Son 80%
Kulusevski 86%
Johnson 61%
Solomon 9%
Gil 9%

Richarlison 59%
Véliz 2%
Werner* 14% (approx of season) 88% (since loan)

Aston Villa
Martinez 96%
Konsa 93% Carlos 54% Torres 70%
Cash 69% Kamara 77% Luiz 91% Digne 71%
McGinn 95%
Diaby 68% Watkins 98%
​

Aston Villa are very hard to pin to a formation so I've tried my best to show what I believe is in Emery's mind the best mix of players in roughly the right places. So don't shoot me! The only notable lower % player is Carlos but with Konsa able to play RCB/CB and Cash they've rotated well. Diaby has been rotated with Bailey for their pacey outlet option so overall looking very healthy with key players like Martinez, Konsa, Luis, McGinn and Watkins all in the 90+% bracket. Mings is long term injured but not a player any Villa fan would consider in their best XI. They have more recently picked up injuries and I would expect them to struggle more now with Kamara and Cash out. Kamara is out long term knee, Buendia is in recovery (knee) our for the season likely, Mings similar, Konsa likely out for 3/4 weeks.

Spoiler: Aston Villa Full Squad PL Mins %

Martinez 96%
Olsen* 4%
Gauci* 0%

Konsa 93%
Cash 69%
Kesler Hayden 0%

Torres 70%
Carlos 54%
Mings 1%
Lenglet 32%
Chambers 0%
Hause 0%

Digne 71%
Moreno 29%

Kamara 77%
Luiz 91%
McGinn 95%
Ramsey 30%
Tielemans 34%
Iroggebunam 1%

Diaby 68%
Bailey 50%
Zainolo 26%
Buendia 0%
Rogers 5%

Watkins 98%
Durán 8%

Manchester United
Onana 100%
Dalot 89% Varane 42% Martinez 26% Shaw 43%
Casemiro 42% Mainoo 36%
Garnacho 66% Bruno 96% Rashford 76%
Højlund 64%
​

Now we can debate Dalot vs AWB, I've gone Dalot because he's had the most minutes and so as not to be accused of trying to hide high % playing 'starters', and I've opted Varane over Maguire but I'd argue Varane is better and it's only a 5% difference in minutes share.

When you consider Mainoo's minutes would likely have gone to Mount while injured we've been really royally fecked over by injuries. Look at us compared to the top 6 sides.

Dealing with some level of injury is absolutely to be expected but 5 of what many would consider our best XI haven't played more than 57% of our PL matches so far this season. Our best CB has missed 3/4 of the season so far and looks to be missing even more. And we've been without our best midfield pairing for 64% of the season. Now add in Champions League, League Cup and FA cup fixtures and you can see why we might have found it difficult.

The impact injuries have had on our defence is unprecedented we have one player (Dalot) who has been able to play 50%+ of our games.

In midfield due to injuries and fitness we've had to rely on McTominay for 56% of our game time but with the squad back and fit you can see his role is reduced to clutch player (impact sub).

Our record since having most players back has been 4 wins in 4. But we have Martinez out until April earliest, Martial out till April, Malacia expected back end of Feb/Early march, Shaw hopefully back this weekend. Mount also back hopefully next week. Wan Bissaka out for the foreseeable.

Spoiler: United Full Squad PL Mins %

Onana 100%
Bayindir 0%*
Heaton 0%*

AWB 41%
Dalot 89%

Martinez 26%
Maguire 47%
Varane 42%
Lindelof 44%
Evans 41%
Kambwala 12%

Shaw 43%
Malacia 0%

Casemiro 42%
Amrabat 32%

Mainoo 36%
McTominay 56%
Eriksen 39%

Fernandes 96%
Mount 19%

Rashford 76%
Garnacho 66%
Antony 43%
Diallo 2%

Højlund 64%
Martial 21%

Thoughts?

 

[BenitoSTARR]

United 2022/23 Season PL Mins % (3420 mins = 100%)

De Gea 100%
AWB 42% Varane 55% Martinez 62% Shaw 75%
Casemiro 62% Eriksen 60%
Antony 53% Bruno 97% Sancho 50%
Rashford 84%
(I refuse to put Martial or Wout here fight me)

Spoiler: Manchester United 22/23 Full Squad PL Mins %

De Gea 100%
Dubravka 0%
Heaton 0%

AWB 42%
Dalot 63%

Martinez 62%
Varane 55%
Lindelof 39%
Maguire 22%

Shaw 75%
Malacia 41%

Casemiro 62%
Eriksen 60%
Fred 36%
McTominay 33%

Fernandes 97%
Sabitzer 18%
DVB 5%

Rashford 84%
Antony 53%
Sancho 50%
Garnacho 16%
Elanga 12%

Martial 29%
Weghorst 23%
Ronaldo 15%

 

[AngeloHenriquez]

Brilliant thread, research and really does go to show how blighted we have been with injuries and how ETH might have a point..

 

[top1whoisman]

Very interesting, brilliant op.

 

[Counterfactual]

Good work! Thanks for the effort.

 

[Bilbo]

Great thread

 

[SuperiorXI]

Great post. Shouldn't have been needed but some choose to ignore how badly we've been in terms of injuries to suit an agenda.

 

[Conor]

Good stuff, another interesting measure would be how many of those starting players out at the same time, like 'games where 3 starting players were missing: x' etc.

 

[Oranges038]

Good work.

Injuries were obviously a huge factor in terms of overall team performance, but some will still choose to ignore it.

 

[Nickelodeon]

'United are in crisis and are under-performing' gets the maximum attention and the pundits, including our former players, love piling on. It was/is obvious to see so many mitigating factors for Ten Hag. Get Van Dijk and Salah out from Liverpool and you'll see the hue and cry which follows. I would argue that the loss of Martinez, Shaw and Casemiro is equivalent or probably more for a side as recently built as ours. Also, our performances in the CL, particularly the away games at Copenhagen and Galatasaray were set up brilliantly from a tactical standpoint where we had comfortable two goal leads. Due to individual howlers (Onana ) and shameful refereeing (Copenhagen Rashford red), we didn't get what we deserved. But for United, results are analyzed more than performances and any mitigating factors are completely ignored.

 

[golden_blunder]

Awesome work. It would be interesting to compare this seasons team versus last season

 

[Flying high]

That can't be right for spurs. They had the worst injury record ever, apparently.

 

[Fortitude]

I like the effort you’ve gone to; refreshing to see something new in a topic that has long since been inane.

I don’t care enough about the subject matter anymore to argue against it, but it should generate some fresh discussion, or at least you’d hope so.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

 

[Borys]

My thoughts are we can't play football with some first team defenders and 18 year old midfielder out.
Casemiro - I'm on the fence, we still concede an awful lot of chances with him in the side (EDIT: Case isn't the problem, but also not the solution).

Injuries are the reason we're having bad results this season for sure. However, they are not an excuse to play awful football - especially that most of the attacking players are available (note that Antony has only recently been dropped for Garnacho, so that RW is a bit sketchy).

I don't know how I feel about the fact that Mainoo is now considered to be the reason we're struggling in midfield this season, it sounds a bit ridiculous to think that was ETH plan for this team all along but that certainly seems to be the case.

Another point to consider is I believe Maguire and Evans have been quite good this season, Dalot sometimes very good. This is a problem only if your entire game plan and buildup relies on backline being world class on the ball (Martinez/Shaw).

 

[SuperiorXI]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

Varane is made of glass, he gets injured all the time

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

If you assume that a manger will try to pick his best team to win football matches then I think it’s a very fair reflection of how often we’ve seen our best XI.

It is statistically impossible for Casemiro, Mainoo, Shaw and Martinez to have been another other colour. Varane could just about hit 50% but we don’t know how fit or ready he was when “available”.

Rather than speculate I’m presenting facts.

My thoughts are we can't play football with some first team defenders and 18 year old midfielder out.
Casemiro - I'm on the fence, we still concede an awful lot of chances with him in the side.

Injuries are the reason we're having bad results this season for sure. However, they are not an excuse to play awful football - especially that most of the attacking players are available (note that Antony has only recently been dropped for Garnacho, so that RW is a bit sketchy).

I don't know how I feel about the fact that Mainoo is now considered to be the reason we're struggling in midfield this season, it sounds a bit ridiculous to think that was ETH plan for this team all along but that certainly seems to be the case.

We all want Ten Hag to play modern football. Which means building out from the back not just playing long ball. To do that you need good players in defence and midfield.

We haven’t been able to play them.

 

[Beachryan]

Great presentation of data. Lovely.

 

[KiD MoYeS]

Great work. It is clear injuries have had a big impact on our season. I still believe Ten Hag needs a strong ending to the season now the majority of the starting XI is back and to be fair - so far, so good. Result wise anyway.

 

[didz]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

The argument in Varane's specific case is that he couldn't play because all the lefties were out so he couldn't play either because reasons. I'm not saying it's a great argument, but it is Ten Hag's one.

 

[Remember the geese]

The media should reference the OP. Won't happen of course because it goes completely against their agenda.

 

[NLunited]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

I suppose you could argue what the best eleven is for each team. Other than that, it is brilliant.

 

[NLunited]

My thoughts are we can't play football with some first team defenders and 18 year old midfielder out.
Casemiro - I'm on the fence, we still concede an awful lot of chances with him in the side (EDIT: Case isn't the problem, but also not the solution).

Injuries are the reason we're having bad results this season for sure. However, they are not an excuse to play awful football - especially that most of the attacking players are available (note that Antony has only recently been dropped for Garnacho, so that RW is a bit sketchy).

I don't know how I feel about the fact that Mainoo is now considered to be the reason we're struggling in midfield this season, it sounds a bit ridiculous to think that was ETH plan for this team all along but that certainly seems to be the case.

Another point to consider is I believe Maguire and Evans have been quite good this season, Dalot sometimes very good. This is a problem only if your entire game plan and buildup relies on backline being world class on the ball (Martinez/Shaw).

About Mainoo: from Ten Hag‘s comments in pre-season we can be sure he was the plan. He said something about the solution for not getting Frenkie de Jong was training a young player from the academy.

 

[Scandi Red]

I tried to make a similar thread a few weeks back, but you did a much better job. Good use of text color too!

Pretty staggering stuff. Especially when you consider that most of the non-reds are new to the team or very young.

 

[Gordon Godot]

Isn't this all getting a bit boring. Is Mainoo really a nailed on starter every week given his age? Plenty of games Varanne has been on bench when fit and also when ETH has preferred Maguire, same regarding McT starting matches. You choose to ignore Antony who ETH felt worthy of £82m and has played him consistently. So a very superficial analysis to suit your biases.

Your entire premise is you can only judge managers on having their strongest teams available, but that rarely happens. Honestly get over it

 

[Leonzo1]

Great post and totally agree. The ETH out brigade keeps going on about injuries being just an excuse and that managers needing to do their best regardless of "circumstances". Does this argument work for Engineers working with Windows 95? How about F1 Racers that get paired with a Fiat Punto? I still think we should have done much better and some of our performances were shambling, but to pretend that our injuries are just an excuse is ridiculous.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Another point to consider is I believe Maguire and Evans have been quite good this season, Dalot sometimes very good. This is a problem only if your entire game plan and buildup relies on backline being world class on the ball (Martinez/Shaw).

Yeah because we’ve got a great coach who has maximised results from limited players.

City, Arsenal and Liverpool build up from the back with players very good on the ball. So do Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern etc. But they also have the physicality pace and power that none of our CBs have (expect arguably Varane).

Hence this also leads into our squad isn’t good enough yet to compete with others beyond 4th.

If Ten Hag abandoned this philosophy completely people would moan he doesn’t have a clear style etc.

 

[Daydreamer]

Isn’t the whole premise a bit flawed? A lot of those yellow/red players could be green if the manager picked them every time they were available? Varane is the obvious example at United. Probably other similar examples at other clubs.

That was my first thought. I think the OP has done a good job in the way he's laid it out and sparked an interesting debate, but the premise itself is, as you say, flawed.

As you mentioned, Varane was fit a lot of the time. As was Mainoo.

And then with opposition teams, the OP has decided their best XI is based upon who has played the most (which is understandable, seeing as he's not a fan of those clubs). But this is circular reasoning. Obviously the all the other teams will be filled players who've played 75% and above players if those are the players that the OP is picking.

I can't speak for other teams, but Partey and Timber would be part of most Arsenal fans best XI. They would almost certainly be part of Arteta's, seeing as he started them both as soon as he had the chance in our opening game. They've played less than 300 minutes this season. Combined.

 

[cyberman]

My problem with the injuries excuse is that we bought players to play with two 8s and when we got our injuries we still tried playing that way with players who didn’t suit the formation.
It’s no coincidence that we have 17 goals in 6 with Casemiro returning and players who can play as 8s playing in those positions but injuries, even though there’s been so many, isn’t a magic bullet to give Ten Hag

 

[hobbers]

This is a nonsense. How can you compare Mainoo and Garnacho with players like Salah, De Bruyne and co? Because they were clearly not starters for the time they were not playing. Garnacho hasnt been injured at all, he just wasnt picked.

If Mainoo had been fit in August he wouldnt have had regular minutes until ETH was forced into it.

Varane hasn't had any significant injuries either. He just got dropped for the City game (for Evans because he's left footed, apparently), and was left out for a long period after that/had a falling out with ETH.

Casemiro's performances had also been dogshit since February and he was probably our worst player in August, along with Rashford, so his injury came at a good time.



Martinez is the only significant, unexpected injury issue we have faced. And that's comparable in significance to De Bruyne and Robertson's injuries. Shaw's sicknote status is a known quantity and should always be planned around anyway.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

Really good post and detailed analysis. I think it’s clearly backs up what we have seen on the pitch this season. It’s been a mismatch of team selections and Ten Hag has been unable to string the same team together for even two game weeks. The defence in particular has changed on nearly a weekly basis in fact I’d be surprised if we have played the same back 4 twice in a row this season. That is bound to impact the tactics and the quality of the displays. I think the more pertinent question from this however, is how do we go about improving this? Do we need an overhaul of our medical department? More through due diligence of signings prior to acquisition? Do we need to ship off the more injury prone players and replace them with more reliable bodies? Likely a mixture of the above. One thing is for certain though, we cannot go into another season banking on this same core of players staying injury free because too many of them (Varane, shaw, martial etc) cannot stay fit long enough to bring us the consistency we require.

 

[hobbers]

It’s been a mismatch of team selections and Ten Hag has been unable to string the same team together for even two game weeks. The defence in particular has changed on nearly a weekly basis in fact I’d be surprised if we have played the same back 4 twice in a row this season.

Only because he decided to drop Varane for Evans for about 2 months.

Could have played AWB - Maguire - Varane - Dalot for the vast majority of the season.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

[

That was my first thought. I think the OP has done a good job in the way he's laid it out and sparked an interesting debate, but the premise itself is, as you say, flawed.

As you mentioned, Varane was fit a lot of the time. As was Mainoo.

Not true.

 

[Grande]

Thank you, I’ve been wondering about that several times this season. Thought we must have the most injury wrecked season in years, but heard followers of other teams say that they had injuries too, due to the toll of last season. I agree with you that even if you discuss a point here and there (Stones should be in for Ake for me, and Varane/Maguire is a coin flip this season), it doesn’t make an impact on the general picture, which is astoundingly clear. As a matter of fact, both Maguiere and Varane has had injuries this season, affecting not only playing minutes directly, but indirectly through form, in addition to injuries on other players forcing tactical changes.

What makes it even worse, is that of the four green players, only two players are eatablished key players, Bruno and Rashford, whereof Bruno has looked subpar (too heavy load?) and Rashford have been mystically substandard. Onana is new in the team finfing his feet with rotating colleagues, and Dalot a player whom probably noone would have had in the first XI in May, dreaming of Frimpong/Dumfries or settling with Bissaka. He’s even played quite a few minutes out of position. Then the two yellow players are averaging 20 year old.

One thing I think many struggle to understand, is how long repercussions multiple injuries have. Countless times I’ve seen teams fight long standing injury crisis (sometimes very well) to hear people say: ‘Finally the squad is full, watch us rip and roar now!’ - only to see reults and general play struggle to come or even get worse for a long period. It’s more usual than the opposite, because players are not cogs, and a well oiled machinery takes a long time of continuous relations to establish normally.

 

[MadDogg]

Isn't this all getting a bit boring. Is Mainoo really a nailed on starter every week given his age? Plenty of games Varanne has been on bench when fit and also when ETH has preferred Maguire, same regarding McT starting matches. You choose to ignore Antony who ETH felt worthy of £82m and has played him consistently. So a very superficial analysis to suit your biases.

Your entire premise is you can only judge managers on having their strongest teams available, but that rarely happens. Honestly get over it

Mainoo may not have come into the season as a nailed on starter, but it was obvious that ETH was planning on playing him quite a bit. And considering as soon as he returned from injury his performances meant he became a nailed on starter, there's no reason to think it would have been any different from the start of the season.

Varane is the only one in red that doesn't really suit the narrative. He'd still have missed quite a lot due to injury (and being rested to avoid injury), but he was actively dropped down the pecking order for a bit over a month.

As for your last line, it's a bit ridiculous if that's your take from this thread. Our injury problems this year are quite obviously far worse than what is normal, so obviously we're going to be impacted by it a lot more than what most (any?) other teams are. What makes it even worse is that a lot of our backups have also been injured at the same time.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Isn't this all getting a bit boring. Is Mainoo really a nailed on starter every week given his age? Plenty of games Varanne has been on bench when fit and also when ETH has preferred Maguire, same regarding McT starting matches. You choose to ignore Antony who ETH felt worthy of £82m and has played him consistently. So a very superficial analysis to suit your biases.

Your entire premise is you can only judge managers on having their strongest teams available, but that rarely happens. Honestly get over it

Yeah it’s really boring trying to argue over the fact we have been worse affected. But it is a fact.

The data proves it unless you have anything to counter that.

Look at the spoiler tabs it also shows the rest of the squad so you can see how badly we’ve been hit. If you don’t believe Mainoo is a starter please replace him with whoever you prefer. It doesn’t change the outcome.

How many games has Varane missed out on to Maguire? Do you think it’s statistically significant enough to impact our entire season?

I’ve not ignored any player they are all listed in the spoilers. McTominay has played 56% of our minutes and Antony 42%. You’re welcome to argue that you feel they should start in our best XI but I’d disagree .

My premise isn’t that you can only judge a manager when everyone is available more that we have had a significant disadvantage compared to other clubs in the top 6 who have had their best XI playing more regularly than ours.

If you look Arsenal, Liverpool, City, Spurs and Villa have all had access to their best players across all positions far more this season than we have. So it stands to reason they have an advantage.

 

[Gordon Godot]

Only because he decided to drop Varane for Evans for about 2 months.

Could have played AWB - Maguire - Varane - Dalot for the vast majority of the season.

Exactly, he went from wanting to sell McT and Maguire over the summer to one point they seemed to be first choice. We were after Amrabat all summer and it was widely reported if we had sold McT we would have bought him rather than loaned him. Eriksen still has his uses and had some good games, but ignored from this analysis. He's persisted with Antony for periods when he was awful, and when Garnacho was fit.

 

[Borys]

If you assume that a manger will try to pick his best team to win football matches then I think it’s a very fair reflection of how often we’ve seen our best XI.

It is statistically impossible for Casemiro, Mainoo, Shaw and Martinez to have been another other colour. Varane could just about hit 50% but we don’t know how fit or ready he was when “available”.

Rather than speculate I’m presenting facts.

We all want Ten Hag to play modern football. Which means building out from the back not just playing long ball. To do that you need good players in defence and midfield.

We haven’t been able to play them.

I would say it's a valid argument IF we played good football when at least most of those key players are available. That's not the case and therefore not a valid excuse for the bad bad style of football.

I believe we've been very lucky in some games that those key figures played, and it's covering up the fact we really didn't play well at all.

Martinez and Casemiro seem to be the key so let's consider games they both played:
1-0 lucky win against Wolves who couldn't finish to save their life - full strength team
0-2 loss vs Tottenham - full strength team
3:2 win against strong rival Nottingham Forest
1:3 loss vs Brighton
4:3 win vs Wolves
3:0 win against West Ham (scoreline flatenned us)

I admire positivity of people who think we'll just come good once key players are available.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

Only because he decided to drop Varane for Evans for about 2 months.

Could have played AWB - Maguire - Varane - Dalot for the vast majority of the season.

We could have played that back line for some of the season and even then that’s hardly a foursome that would be conductive to playing good football is it? Our best two defenders are missing and have done nearly all season.

 

[Borys]

Yeah because we’ve got a great coach who has maximised results from limited players.

City, Arsenal and Liverpool build up from the back with players very good on the ball. So do Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern etc. But they also have the physicality pace and power that none of our CBs have (expect arguably Varane).

Hence this also leads into our squad isn’t good enough yet to compete with others beyond 4th.

If Ten Hag abandoned this philosophy completely people would moan he doesn’t have a clear style etc.

"a great coach"? What has ETH done to be called a "great coach"? His idea of single 6 double 10 has been nothing short of a disaster, we are on 0 goal difference despite having all key attacking players available, and we basically play hoofball every time we're under any sort of pressure and Martinez / Shaw are not in the team.