The way I see it, we overperfomed last season.
I agree with this. Superb thread and statistical analysis. @BenitoSTARR thank you and well done.
For me we are at the point where what happens in the next 10 games doesn't even matter that much.
But you’re asking me to analyse why we lost one particular game? That’s not a trend it’s a single data point?
Your plan is to play a teenager just back from a 3 month injury in back to back PL games from 26/11, 2/12, then 6/12 and 9/12?
It’s a shit thing but it is the case. Nothing about our footballing set up has screamed elite for a while now. Hopefully that is changing.
Has it created discussion? Have I shied away from any contextual discussion?
Agree with this. But expectations need to be reviewed in context.
We performed really well last year. Yeah must have had a good manager then. Wonder what’s changed?
I think we are a CL/Europa side with everyone fit. Which has been our level the past 6+ years.
Haha cheers!
Lovely post and I applaud you for it.
To be fair, both the match thread and post match thread are mostly just emotional vent threads, good or bad.
Nobody disputes our win/loss record, but that seems to be the only stat some people can understand or will discuss. This thread adds more context to those results with factual information. You can choose to ignore the information because it somewhat threatens what you want to believe , but it doesn’t change the informations relevance.
Agenda, agenda, agenda.
Good post. No left back has been the main issue for me but it's not enough to excuse how poor our football has been this season.
Well but in every second sentence you make a reference to injuries, what doesn't seem to be the reason why Garnacho % is so low, same for Varane, Antony was also first choice until recently etc.
Yeah fair point
Which is a fair enough position to have. But at least accepting its a contributing factor is what I’m after here.
I’ve contextualise the data. And every squad player has been listed in the spoiler section.
Part of the issue is that it wasn't just our first choice that was injured, but we had our backups injured at the same time as well.
I'd agree with that conclusion. Good post.
It’s good to have OP’s like Benito has gone to the effort of making for the strong counterpoints and discussion as above, it engenders, which is a breath of fresh air in a very stale ongoing conversation.
Exactly. We have the most expensive squad ever and an increasingly strong flow of academy players. This whole thread is another pointless excuse for ETH and his under delivering. What is laughable is its also the players not following instructions that leaves us wide open, rather than our appalling team shape that is clearly what the manager wants
I agree. This has been the most enjoyable football discussion I’ve had in some time.
Yeah you’re just missing the point here. If you want to moan about Ten Hag please do so in his thread.
Very good point. I'd expect a good coach to handle this situation somehow, but if your whole gameplan relies on CB/FBs being world class on the ball, then no wonder we are in trouble. Casemiro is a big miss but he wasn't doing anything in the buildup when available, and was a calamity defensively (albeit not his fault entirely, as the setup didn't help). Recruitment is as much of a problem as coaching, and this is why we are here.
Leaving the world-class etiquette aside for a minute, this isn't a stick to beat ETH with. It's a prerequisite, not a bonus, in today's game to have defenders comfortable on the ball and able to make sensible decisions with it. Whatever faults there are in ETH's plan, there's not a side worth its salt out there in which the defenders/keeper aren't heavily involved in the build-up.
Although this is true, you need to set up your team in a way that the defenders will have passing options. Our backline has very little passing options, what make it even more difficult for them to play from the back. This is why Martinez is key, he's elite on the ball, but if your tactic relies on elite players, maybe it's not q very good tactic.
Yes, and more options doesn't mean more players in front of the opposition press (dropping almost next to the defenders). It means having midfielders/wingers that can receive the ball on the half-turn and secure possession under extreme pressure. When you have players who constantly pull away from challenges, players who hide behind the opposition press because they don't (really) want the ball or want to get involved, but they drop way too deep (thus inviting more pressure and leaving gaps where the ball needs to go) because they need space and time to turn, all of this makes life more difficult for everyone. The big difference between Martinez (plus Shaw and Dalot when they are on form) and the rest of the defenders is that he doesn't dither on the ball, thinking about all the things that can go wrong. So, yes, he's picking the kind of passes that you would often expect from one of the highest paid squads in the game. You can blame the manager all you want, but these issues won't go away with the next guy.
No. I highlighted a few games & delved into one in particular. That is not a single data point.
Indeed.
The same way no one is disputing we’ve had more injuries than our counterparts. Our win/loss record is a factual information. You can choose to ignore the information because it somewhat threatens what you want to believe , but it doesn’t change the informations relevance.
Ah ok that’s me misunderstanding your intention there then apologies.
And every opponent played like relegation fodder, regardless of our own play. This is particularly true of our defense - no attack we face would normally get any shots off against any other opponent.
Yeah sort of plays into my point too: feels like ETH requires these elite technicians at every single position to pull off the style he has in his head of what “will work”, and if one cog is out of place none of it works and he resorts to full pragmatism.
I think he’s compromised on this though as much as possible.
If City (regrettably) are the standard you can see how every player they have helps their style with excellent individual quality suited to the teams needs.While I'm no expert in football statistics, these are my thoughts on what I think is working for City (as an example) when I looked at their individual player stats:
Ederson - In the bottom 2% of goal kicks taken across top 5 leagues in Europe. He's also in the bottom 10% for passes over 40 yards.
Ake, Dias, Stones, Akanji, Walker, Gvardiol - Every single one of those 6 players are at 90+ percentile for passing. If you look at our players, only Martinez is up there with that group, so a good place to start would be those ball playing CBs and FBs. 1 or 2 of these City players are also excellent at progressive carries.
Rodri - leads every stat when it comes to passing, and is also 99th percentile for progressive passes and carries. Case while he's great with the defensive side of things (top percentiles across Europe for tackles, blocks, clearances and aerial duals), is well behind in progressive passing and ball carrying.
Bernardo - Also great with his progressive passes and carries, while being in the 98th percentile both for passes attempted and passes completed. Mainoo might still get there but he doesn't impose himself in a game in that same way yet.
De Bruyne (Small sample size with him this season admittedly) - Also in the top of Europe in his passing stats (passes attempted, progressive passes, progressive carries, take ons and touches in the attacking penalty area). He is 99th percentile for progressive passes received, which shows how well everyone behind him works to get the ball safely to him while being higher up the pitch (And how good he is at receiving). Bruno on the other hand is the only midfielder in our team that is in the 99th percentile for progressive passes but is only in the 25th percentile for progressive passes received and is well behind KdB in those other areas I mentioned earlier, while being ahead in the defensive actions - Which means, he's not able to play a proper No 10 role with this team as he doesn't have the right profile of midfielders/defenders behind him that are ball carriers and most of the time, he's got to do his progressive passing from behind the half way line.
From their usual wide attackers - Doku, Grealish, Alvarez and Foden are high up in those passing/carrying stats. Rashford is well below par in these stats, and Garnacho only excels in progressive carries plus touches in attacking pen. area. Alvarez and Doku are high up in the tackles stat (Above 80th percentile), while Rashy for example in the 4th and 5th percentile respectively for tackles and interceptions (None of the City wide players this season are below the 40th percentile in at least one of these stats)Garna at least is doing well with interceptions and Antony for all his faults is high up with his defensive contributions. It's painfully obvious we need wide attackers who can carry the ball, make progressive passes and can put those tackles/interceptions in.
Haaland - Decent pass accuracy for a CF, and takes a lot of touches in the box (90th percentile). Hojlund on the other hand takes far less touches in the box (50th percentile), but is well ahead of Haaland in terms of ball carries and take ons. He is also quite high for progressive passes received (78th percentile, whereas Haaland is in the 12th percentile). I think what this shows is that Hojlund is not able to be a fully functioning centre forward in this team, he has to do a lot of the ball carrying in the final third - Whereas he should just be the final piece of the puzzle, that is able to do some passing, but is there solely to score goals.
Putting all this together, if we want to play with more control, I think we need CBs/FBs who are able to pass progressively, while also carrying the ball well. The midfield 3 themselves need to be passing and carrying the ball to a high standard. This composed spine of the team allows our GK to play short/flat passes to distribute the ball. The ability to pass well with composure then leads to more possession, and less defensive actions required from the midfield and defence. The wide attackers also need to pass more often, pass more accurately, pass progressively, carry the ball forwards more often, and contribute defensively at a high level (Either via tackles or interceptions). Our CF then just needs to make more runs into the box, and utilise the passing abilities of the wide players / FBs / midfielders to have more effective touches inside the box. I think Rasmus, Garna, Kobbie, Bruno, Shaw, Licha, Dalot, Onana, Mount are all capable of playing this way. I'm just not convinced with the rest of our squad - Case, Varane, and Rashford just needs to get replaced for cheaper/younger options that suit this kind of football more. Perhaps Bruno needs to go as well, but I think he will improve with better players around him - I don't see him necessarily as the biggest problem, but if he is, he will get found out next to those better players quite quickly. Then we need better squad options who are also good at passing and ball carrying - This means Maguire, Lindelof, AWB, McTominay, Antony, Sancho, Greenwood all need selling. That's 10 players to sell and then 4 defenders, 3 midfielders, and around 3 wide players to add.
10 years of mismanagement + two bad decisions by ETH/Murtogh on Antony and Case (Good player but not for us imo) results in this mess, hope that INEOS themselves see that the squad still needs a lot of work. Oldest player we signed during the Gill/Fergie era was RVP so I hope we return to that policy when we buy from outside, and I hope some more of our youth players will also help us bridge this gap.
Its interesting to look at like that and isn't without some credit, but I also think it is over simplifying things.
Brilliant work, was hoping somebody could put somethnig like this together. Weve had a terrible, freak first half to the season and can only hope it balances out
ETH has purchased players for £380M
