6th is very much in doubt now. What's the lowest you will be happy with @BenitoSTARR?
UPDATED!!! United vs Top 6 - An Injury/Availability Analysis - Still Happy With 6th?
- Thread starter BenitoSTARR
- Start date
I don’t mind doing it for them too?
What would you say is Brighton’s strongest XI? (I’m not sure myself)
So out of interest what do you think (formatted please) is Villas best too? I’m struggling to visualise the formation?
6th is about the lowest. I think though am yet to do the analysis that even with our injuries a good manager should be able to get us there.
I’m curious your thoughts to the above does anything surprise you?
6th does nothing for me. Even in the death rattle days of Ralf Ragnick's reign, which was a nadir in terms of performances and results, the players had given up, Ralf knew he was a dead man walking, United still managed to finish 6th.
It goes to show that if we get our act together, get proper coaching and recruitment, top 4 should be a minimum guarantee for this club. At the very least.
A moderate enough manager like Arteta has gotten Arsenal to challenge for the league 2 seasons in a row. They have Havertz, Jesus and Trossard in their attack. Christ Jesus, we should be able to keep up with them.
It goes to show that if we get our act together, get proper coaching and recruitment, top 4 should be a minimum guarantee for this club. At the very least.
A moderate enough manager like Arteta has gotten Arsenal to challenge for the league 2 seasons in a row. They have Havertz, Jesus and Trossard in their attack. Christ Jesus, we should be able to keep up with them.
I said weeks ago we finish 9th and I’m going to be right. Chelsea finishing above us this season would be the final nail in any managers coffin but ETH will still be in a job. The club never learns and next season without any European football will make recruitment even harder.
9th might be a godsend though as it would mean avoiding the Conference League.
Emi
Cash Konsa Pau Torres Digne
McGinn Luiz Kamara Ramsey
Bailey Watkins
If they were all available from this season's regulars and we made the Europa conference final that's what we'd do with but Kamara and Ramsey had season ending injuries so Tielemans and Rogers would come in judging on how we've played recently.
Brighton hmmmm....
Steele, Milner, Dunk, Hecke, Estupinan, Gross, Gilmour, Enciso, March, Mitoma, Welbeck/Ferguson is roughly what they started the season with but Joao Pedro started becoming the regular CF around October. Also got De Zerbi basically rotating every other position.
Does finishing 8th guarantee getting rid of ETH? If so, I'll take that.
What’s wrong with Confrence league? It’s competitive football. Hopefully the new manager will be in place by next season so the more football the better.
We shipped 7 to Liverpool and he stayed in the job, so I doubt it. Injuries though…
Doesn't particularly surprise me. The top 5 have been more fortunate with keeping a core on the pitch.
My issue has always been with how bad the performances have been after taking the injuries into account. Not that I don't agree that injuries will have some impact.
Looking at our remaining fixtures, and how badly Ten Hag has fared against Newcastle and Brighton and Bournemouth especially, we will be lucky to get 10 points from the last 8 games.
That's not an exaggeration. So I'd say 8th at best.
That's not an exaggeration. So I'd say 8th at best.
6th is a disgrace for a supposed top club in world football, injuries or not.
Cant TH dig some out from the youth, or train other players to fulfill other roles like Shaw was used for?
Every team gets injuries, yet we seem to suffer more than most apparently with ours. Why is that?
There are 7 teams with 8 or more first team injuries including Villa. We have 9 as do Palace, Newcastle and Luton11 and Liverpool have 7. Injuries are expected over a season and you build a squad for that.
Fergie played Carrick Keane and Fletcher in the back, probably others I cant think of at this time off the top of my head.
Cant TH dig some out from the youth, or train other players to fulfill other roles like Shaw was used for?
Every team gets injuries, yet we seem to suffer more than most apparently with ours. Why is that?
There are 7 teams with 8 or more first team injuries including Villa. We have 9 as do Palace, Newcastle and Luton11 and Liverpool have 7. Injuries are expected over a season and you build a squad for that.
Fergie played Carrick Keane and Fletcher in the back, probably others I cant think of at this time off the top of my head.
Thanks for the above. If you had everyone fit what would it look like in terms of best XI?Emi
Cash Konsa Pau Torres Digne
McGinn Luiz Kamara Ramsey
Bailey Watkins
If they were all available from this season's regulars and we made the Europa conference final that's what we'd do with but Kamara and Ramsey had season ending injuries so Tielemans and Rogers would come in judging on how we've played recently.
Brighton hmmmm....
Steele, Milner, Dunk, Hecke, Estupinan, Gross, Gilmour, Enciso, March, Mitoma, Welbeck/Ferguson is roughly what they started the season with but Joao Pedro started becoming the regular CF around October. Also got De Zerbi basically rotating every other position.
Im curious how it would impact how I view your achievements so far this season (I think you’ve been fantastic and well worth your position so far).
Im not sure if Brighton have a strongest XI they’ve just got lots of good players that rotate really well. I’ll try and put it together tonight along with Newcastle for you.
Yeah so we can acknowledge and agree the top 5 have been able to play their best players more than we have.
I agree the performances we’ve had in many games have been concerning but the results haven’t been (in the sense we’re still on a pretty good run since Christmas wining more often than not)
And so I guess we’re at the point in development where do we accept poor performances with clearly the worst injury/selection of players used in the hopes that when fit, and with a window to add more robust and better suited squad/first team options, we’d expect better performance and therefore a higher league position?
So you’re not optimistic then?
The whole squad could be injured and it would still be a failure and an embarrassment to finish 6th. But with that said, our on-pitch troubles have very little to do with injuries. We were poor when they were all fit. We're as bad when they're not fit. We are just a really poor side top to bottom. Terrible players, an even worse manager.
It’s a strange way to do this. Mainoo is not on 48 percent because of injuries, but because he wasn’t always first-choice. Same with Garnacho and Varane. Surely the relevant metric is how many games the players were available for? But in terms of absolving ETH of blame, which after all is the point of the thread, I suppose this is the way to do it.
I don’t think we are a top club in world football. Far from it in our current guise.
Looking over the entire season it’s clear we’ve been more affected and that the argument well other clubs have injuries doesn’t bear much relevance when the clubs above us are able to largely play their best teams in the majority of games this season.
Fergie also has years to build those squads, years of working with those players and was arguably the greatest ever manager in PL history. He didn’t do it for the sustained time of a season that we’ve had to, with an inferior squad. We were regularly one of the better squads in the league, even with everyone fit, I don’t think we’re close to Arsenal, City and Liverpool yet.
Beat Sheffield and Burnley at home. Maybe win 1 or 2 of the home games vs Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle.
But I dont see us winning jack shit away to Bournemouth, Palace and Brighton. Unless there's an interim manager.
You cannot expect an 18 year old in their debut season to play every available minute especially after recovering from an injury that kept them out for 3 months was it?
Garnacho isn’t the player I’m arguing is the issue here. Our forward line is relatively ok but look at the whole squad drop downs and we have players like Evans and McTominay taking up minutes that they shouldn’t be when everyone is fit (but we’ve never had that luxury).
Availability is also very subjective. Look at how many players have come off the bench and got injured. A player may be “available” but unable to complete more than 10 mins so this studies the actual playing time so who has been able to physically be on the pitch making an impact.
We could argue over selection but that would be a very subjective debate. So here are the facts and interpret as you wish.
Im not absolving of all blame but providing the context behind my opinion that it’s not unreasonable for us to be in this position.
We’ll see.
The problem with this method is that if a manager rotates a lot, or is undecided on his best 11, this would make it appear like he’d had a lot of injuries. For instance, some of those minutes to McT and Evans were given over players you’ve put in our best 11 (Mainoo and Varane). We all know we’ve been extremely unlucky with injuries this season but when you pick a method that makes it look even worse, and knowing your stance on ETH, it just feels like you’re trying to make excuses for him.
If it feels that way that’s not something I can change. All I’m presenting is some factual data which I do think if you look throughout this thread I’ve tried to contextualise.
How many clubs above us would consider 18/19 year olds their best options and therefore starters? Teenagers need rotation.
Equally look at Varane this season. Do you think we could have demanded statistically significantly more minutes from him to be in the green for example when he’s barely scraped 50%?
The availability analysis is threadmarked in this thread so use those links. I’ve not hidden that data at all I didn’t know where to find it easily accessible and then @Laurencio showed it me.
My first reaction was to then thread mark and highlight it.
Absence Logs 2.0
New
@Jev use these and tell me what you think?
Thanks to @didz
Manchester United absences
Manchester City absences
Liverpool absences
Arsenal absences
Tottenham absences
Aston Villa absences
Thanks to @didz
Manchester United absences
Manchester City absences
Liverpool absences
Arsenal absences
Tottenham absences
Aston Villa absences
Honestly I think it proves my point. The three players I highlighted as being misleading were Mainoo (48 %), Varane (50) and Garnacho (71). The former has been available for squad selection every game after week 9 (71 %), Varane has missed five games through injury (84), and Garnacho has been available for every single game. So I think it shows exactly what I was saying.
Now, that doesn’t mean we haven’t been very unlucky with injuries this season, we obviously have. The other side of that coin is that we’ve been incredibly lucky on the pitch, but that’s another discussion.
Ok now why do you think Ten Hag rotated Mainoo, Varane and Garnacho when he did?
My opinion Mainoo is a teenager coming back from injury. You cannot rely on a teenager to run your midfield all season. None of the clubs above us do that.
Varane is injury prone so him being “available” on the bench isn’t the same as him being able to make a significant impact given playing him week in week out isn’t something his body is capable of.
Garnacho is also a teenager who didn’t have the best attitude to begin with. Since coming in he’s not lost his spot really but again we need to be mindful of the fact he’s a teenager too.
How many of the other top 6 clubs have a teenager starting the majority of their games in attack?
Also I think you’ll find if you look at the other clubs the availability of their players relative to ours is higher. I’m intrigued have you also seen this too or are you looking at us in isolation?
The way I presented this data was simple and easy to show (and has been done manually on mobile lol)
It’s not so much a case of rotating. Mainoo and Garnacho were not part of his preferred 11 when the season began, we all know this, which is why they’ve gradually played more and more. But most of the times Garnacho wasn’t picked, for instance, ETH had his then-preferred RW (Anthony) available.
I don’t understand the relevance of your final question. One of the reasons we have two teenagers starting is that ETH’s transfers have been very poor. How is that a point in his defence?
Of course, we’ve been extremely hampered by injuries this season, I never disputed that, just said your method makes it look even worse for no reason (other than defending ETH).
Or perhaps it just highlights a very real issue that has hampered us all season.
Great post.
People making it seem he has been dealt a bad hand since football was invented are just being dishonest.
I will give the fact that our left back, Left CB and DM have been injured this season amongst those considered to be starters and he has had loads of players he has refused to use despite bringing them in.
My criticism of him is not so much in the winning of games but more of the fact we look clueless in both offense and defence and there is still no identity on how we want to play despite two seasons into his reign.
Ten Hag has already said Mainoo would have been involved had he not been injured based on preseason. His injury delayed his introduction and the only other player capable of doing something similar (Mount) has been unavailable all season.
Garnacho was not first choice at the start of the season but my argument has never been that our attack has been significantly impacted by injury more so than any other club.
Transfers are not the sole responsibility of the manager but look at those other top 6 clubs none of them have had to be in the position of relying on one or two like we have.
Could you not also argue it’s great that he is promoting youth and in doing so still managing to be close to squads that are relying on more experienced, developed and physically capable players?
Pundits saying City had loads of injuries the other day did make me chuckle. Useful to see. Appreciate it’s an effort but am interested to see Brentford as well (was discussing in another thread and they might be one who have had it as bad as us).
So you agree based on the availability criteria we’ve also had worse availability? So in what was has my argument (which I contextualise throughout the thread) just designed to defend?
It was designed to show how often the best XI has been playing based on % mins in the PL.
Look at our availability vs others. Look at our said composition vs others.
That’ll have to wait till end of season.
Consider my expectations managed. Appreciate the work.
Yes.
Because it makes it seem even worse than it is. As argued, injury isn’t the only explanation for a player not to be playing. The fact that we don’t have a settled first 11 like the teams you’re comparing us to will always make our numbers lower.
I simply think it’s a pretty useless metric, unless the point is to show that ETH has faced an impossible task.
If that was my intention, why would I at the first available opportunity thread mark and subsequently share to all the data in the way you requested that also shows the same point, that we have had it worse?
It was simply that at the time of me making this thread the only quick and easy way for me to find the data was using transfermarkt %mins.
You may think it’s useless, thanks.
As things stand 4th was probably the best we could hope for. And while 6th might be a disgrace for a club of this size and resources, it's probably about right for a club with no regular left-back, one striker and a 36-year-old on a one-year deal getting games at CB. YOu've said yourself, we have a really poor squad with little or no depth in key areas.
I don’t think there has been any bad faith from your side and you’ve obviously put quite a bit of work into this, which is commendable. I just think we’re all subconsciously susceptible to focusing on stats that support our held beliefs. And just as you might argue it’s too narrow-sighted to highlight the number of shots we concede (as I might do) without taking into account the quality of said chances, I’m simply arguing why I don’t think this metric in itself is all that useful. Part of the point of this thread is to invite discussion on the merits of your arguments, no?
What if I were to tell you that 6th actually flatters us, and that the stats suggest we should be 12-14th?