Sweet Square
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i love the smell of free markets in the morningTweet
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i love the smell of free markets in the morningTweet
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What precedences exist for this scale of a voluntary exodus of citizens in peacetime?Tweet
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I wonder how long we will keep that up on them...
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What, if anything, was really accomplished today?Leopoldo Lopez is seeking asylum at the Chilean embassy. I guess thats the end of it and a really bad day for the opposition. Its unknown where Guaido is.
This might be an explanation why all of this happened:
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Apparently there have been talks where the upper echelons of the Venezuelan military (incl. Padrino) indicated, that they are willing to drop Maduro (or at least Guaido/Lopez believed that). Its hard to make sense of much of what happened today without something like that (despite not putting much stock in statements from Bolton). Venezuela is fecked. That was another opportunity for the military to save their skin, but they continue to be loyal. I guess this will only end when the military & the paramilitaries are starving because there is nothing more to steal. Things can always get worse.
nothing. The political opposition asked the military to switch sides. Encouraging the military to change allegiance is all they can do. Guaido gave extensive assurances to the military in the past including amnesty. The military rejected this possibility again (the people who supported Guaido today were intelligence service/national guard).What, if anything, was really accomplished today?
Why would the military leaders switch allegiance? They are making buckets of money under him. If Guaido gets the power, they know they have to pay this back as a minimum, and likely going to end up in prison.nothing. The political opposition asked the military to switch sides. Encouraging the military to change allegiance is all they can do. Guaido gave extensive assurances to the military in the past including amnesty. The military rejected this possibility again (the people who supported Guaido today were intelligence service/national guard).
The opposition look like mugs, because that was all they could do and it failed. Peaceful opposition doesn't achieve anything and violence isn't an option. Venezuela is fecked. If there isn't another surprising twist in the next few days, this might continue until Venezuela literally disintegrates.
Weren’t some factions of the military aligned with the opposition this AM? Was it just not enough to create enough inertia to start to topple Maduro?nothing. The political opposition asked the military to switch sides. Encouraging the military to change allegiance is all they can do. Guaido gave extensive assurances to the military in the past including amnesty. The military rejected this possibility again (the people who supported Guaido today were intelligence service/national guard).
The opposition look like mugs, because that was all they could do and it failed. Peaceful opposition doesn't achieve anything and violence isn't an option. Venezuela is fecked. If there isn't another surprising twist in the next few days, this might continue until Venezuela literally disintegrates.
The question is how long they continue to make money and how sustainable their position is. The pie is getting smaller every day and the US oil embargo might be the final nail in the coven for the Venezuelan oil industry. The situation will continue to deteriorate.Why would the military leaders switch allegiance? They are making buckets of money under him. If Guaido gets the power, they know they have to pay this back as a minimum, and likely going to end up in prison.
There were reports about one important general switching sides (Jose Ornelas Ferreira), but that turned out to be false. Without exception, the military leadership stood united with Maduro and they seem to have strong control over their forces. I guess loyalty can change in the blink of an eye, but I start to wonder if there is anything that might change their mind except the disintegration of the (para)military itself.Weren’t some factions of the military aligned with the opposition this AM? Was it just not enough to create enough inertia to start to topple Maduro?
Likely they are thinking these are empty promises, which is understandable. Even if the new government won't go after them, they will lose their wealth and the general population will not be friendly towards them. If i recall correctly Chavez put his "likeminded" friends in the top military positions, and there is a reasons as for why there are relatively many generals in their military compared to its size --> keeping the people with power on their side. Better for them to have money and power in a bad situation than being in prison or fleing to Russia.The question is how long they continue to make money and how sustainable their position is. The pie is getting smaller every day and the US oil embargo might be the final nail in the coven for the Venezuelan oil industry. The situation will continue to deteriorate.
The strategy of Guaido was to promise the military, that he'll safeguard them against any repercussions when they facility a transition regardless of their criminal actions. Thats all he can promise, but apparently its not enough.