Why is our passing so garbage?

[Hammondo]

Fbref. They'll have updated with this weeks' games since.

Only reason I ask is because I googled kdb and his passing accuracy in the PL this season in 79%

 

[KanieKaned]

Our squad lacks technical ability.

Pretty much nails it.

 

[RoyKeaneReborn]

I recall our passing was already bad in the last few years of SAF's reign. There was a "Zombie Football" thread making its rounds on the CAF. RVP really saved us with his finishing. Back then, we also did not have very good young dynamic centre mids (kudos to Scholesy n Carrick who were aging but still trudging us along), who were crucial in playing a passing & controlling game.

Thereafter, the passing just got worse n worse thru Moyes, LVG, Jose & Ole's reigns. I see it picking up already with ETH. We have to give him time n allow him to bring in the right players to build up the passing style.

 

[Isotope]

Pass completion stats

Bruno - 45 percentile
Eriksen - 28 percentile
Casemiro - 38 percentile
Fred - 41 percentile

None of city main midfielders bar De bruyne are below the 85 percentile. None of Arsenal midfielder are below the 75 percentile bar Odegaard

This doesn't make sense. Does this mean Eriksen is the worst culprit?

 

[antohan]

This doesn't make sense. Does this mean Eriksen is the worst culprit?

No, it's the other way around. One percentile means 99% are worse.

Of course that means the follow up percentiles re City and Arsenal are all wrong, would have to be 15 percentile City bar KDB and 25 Arsenal bar Odegaard. Sounds realistic, even if the posters credibility is in tatters.

 

[Isotope]

I recall our passing was already bad in the last few years of SAF's reign. There was a "Zombie Football" thread making its rounds on the CAF. RVP really saved us with his finishing. Back then, we also did not have very good young dynamic centre mids (kudos to Scholesy n Carrick who were aging but still trudging us along), who were crucial in playing a passing & controlling game.

Thereafter, the passing just got worse n worse thru Moyes, LVG, Jose & Ole's reigns. I see it picking up already with ETH. We have to give him time n allow him to bring in the right players to build up the passing style.

In 2011/12 season, we scored 89 goals in the League.
in 2012/13 season after RVP joined in, we scored 86 goals in the League.

 

[lex talionis]

We inbred a lot of bad habits under Louis, José and then finally Ole. Zombie passing when in possession, but our most effective threats were on the counterattack. Previously good players like Pogba turned to shit under the broken systems he and others played under. We’ve improved under ETH but we’re still only 8 months or so under his tutelage.

 

[Isotope]

No, it's the other way around. One percentile means 99% are worse.

Of course that means the follow up percentiles re City and Arsenal are all wrong, would have to be 15 percentile City bar KDB and 25 Arsenal bar Odegaard. Sounds realistic, even if the posters credibility is in tatters.

That's not how percentile works though. 85th percentile means the person is above 84% of the total.

I just googled:


"Is the 95th percentile the top 5%?
This is a standard measure used in interpreting performance data. This 95th percentile is the highest value left when the top 5% of a numerically sorted set of collected data is discarded. "

 

[antohan]

That's not how percentile works though. 85th percentile means the person is above 84% of the total.

I just googled:


"Is the 95th percentile the top 5%?
This is a standard measure used in interpreting performance data. This 95th percentile is the highest value left when the top 5% of a numerically sorted set of collected data is discarded. "

Yeah, true, you usually say top 1 or 10 percentile, but the figure used for a rank starts from 100 downwards. But then, the United player values are definitely the wrong way around (or add "top" before the number).

There's no way Eriksen is more wasteful than Bruno. I won't bring McT/Fred into it as you can always skew stats with a lot of sideways passing. Creative players tend to suffer by trying more low probability passes that could unlock a defence, but no, there's no way 72% of Premiership midfielders are better at passing than Eriksen.

Still pretty shocking regardless.

 

[johnnyteutonic]

Yeah, true, you usually say top 1 or 10 percentile, but the figure used for a rank starts from 100 downwards. But then, the United player values are definitely the wrong way around (or add "top" before the number).

There's no way Eriksen is more wasteful than Bruno. I won't bring McT/Fred into it as you can always skew stats with a lot of sideways passing. Creative players tend to suffer by trying more low probability passes that could unlock a defence, but no, there's no way 72% of Premiership midfielders are better at passing than Eriksen.

Still pretty shocking regardless.

Sorry but you've definitely got it the wrong way around (with your original post).
I'm a Data Scientist and I use fbref all the time for interest's sake.

The percentiles the other poster stated are correctly ranked. The 1st percentile is the lowest percentile. Conversely the 99th percentile ranks you in the highest percentile.

And the figures cited look correct to me.

Here is Eriksen:

https://fbref.com/en/players/980522ec/scout/365_m1/Christian-Eriksen-Scouting-Report

He ranks in the 29th percentile here so the poster has it off by just one percent, perhaps a typo.

Bruno ranks in the 46th percentile which is better than Eriksen, so also looks like that poster is off by one here as well, although perhaps in this case, the figures have been updated subsequently:

https://fbref.com/en/players/507c7bdf/Bruno-Fernandes

These stats are a bit misleading because Eriksen's raw pass completion rate is actually *higher* than Bruno's but because he is ranked against midfielders in the default view his percentile ranking is lower.
But if you actually compare Bruno's pass completion percentage against *midfielders* he ranks lower than Eriksen.
TLDR - Eriksen's pass completion rate is actually higher than Bruno's. These stats are slightly misleading because of which category of midfielder both of these players are being ranked against.

 

[jamesjimmybyrondean]

Yeah, true, you usually say top 1 or 10 percentile, but the figure used for a rank starts from 100 downwards. But then, the United player values are definitely the wrong way around (or add "top" before the number).

There's no way Eriksen is more wasteful than Bruno. I won't bring McT/Fred into it as you can always skew stats with a lot of sideways passing. Creative players tend to suffer by trying more low probability passes that could unlock a defence, but no, there's no way 72% of Premiership midfielders are better at passing than Eriksen.

Still pretty shocking regardless.

I'm surprised myself but that's what the stats say. It was even worse last season. Anyways, doesn't mean Eriksen is a bad passer, De Bruyne, one of the best passers, is at the bottom 6 percentile. It just means we're seriously lacking a midfielder that can keep possession and help us control games. A midfield of Eriksen, Bruno and Casemiro is too many players that love to take risks

 

[MUFC OK]

Massively agree that our passing he’s been our biggest problem of late. The answer is probably the same suspects who were terrible at it before - AWB, Fred, Bruno etc.

We so desperately need a Pirlo/scholes type next to Casemiro - hence why we were better with Eriksen in there earlier in the season. Signing another should be a priority alongside striker in the summer.

 

[johnnyteutonic]

I'm surprised myself but that's what the stats say. It was even worse last season. Anyways, doesn't mean Eriksen is a bad passer, De Bruyne, one of the best passers, is at the bottom 6 percentile. It just means we're seriously lacking a midfielder that can keep possession and help us control games. A midfield of Eriksen, Bruno and Casemiro is too many players that love to take risks

Nope the stats are being interpreted incorrectly.
Bruno is being compared against other attacking midfielders, Eriksen against 'normal' midfielders.
If you look at the *raw* pass completion percentage, Eriksen is higher than Bruno as expected.

 

[jamesjimmybyrondean]

Nope the stats are being interpreted incorrectly.
Bruno is being compared against other attacking midfielders, Eriksen against 'normal' midfielders.
If you look at the *raw* pass completion percentage, Eriksen is higher than Bruno as expected.

Ah that Makes more sense. Although Eriksen having a lower passing accuracy than Fred still pretty much highlights our lack of midfielders with the ability to keep possession

 

[johnnyteutonic]

Ah that Makes more sense. Although Eriksen having a lower passing accuracy than Fred still pretty much highlights our lack of midfielders with the ability to keep possession

Yep, I get you.
I also initially found out it surprising about Fred but I do remember looking at Fred's pass completion stats earlier in the season and they were actually much higher. He's at a tick under 81% now but a couple of months ago was at 83%. He plays it more safe than Eriksen, Casemiro and Bruno so that's why he's higher and he is also worse at progressive passing than all of them (same story for McTominay).

Eriksen probably ranks lower because he does a lot of long balls and switches that don't always hit their target, but he is an excellent progressive passer.

Casemiro had a much higher pass completion at Madrid. I remember when he joined us he was at around 85%, now down to just under 80%.
He obviously makes the odd mistake with short passes, and also makes a lot of long balls like Eriksen and is also a superior progressive passes than Fred.

The story with Bruno is similar as he ranks very highly with progressive passes.

Long story short, at least in our midfield, high progressive passing metrics is inversely correlated to pass completion percentage because of how adventurous with passing our creative midfielders are.

 

[jamesjimmybyrondean]

Yep, I get you.
I also initially found out it surprising about Fred but I do remember looking at Fred's pass completion stats earlier in the season and they were actually much higher. He's at a tick under 81% now but a couple of months ago was at 83%. He plays it more safe than Eriksen, Casemiro and Bruno so that's why he's higher and he is also worse at progressive passing than all of them (same story for McTominay).

Eriksen probably ranks lower because he does a lot of long balls and switches that don't always hit their target, but he is an excellent progressive passer.

Casemiro had a much higher pass completion at Madrid. I remember when he joined us he was at around 85%, now down to just under 80%.
He obviously makes the odd mistake with short passes, and also makes a lot of long balls like Eriksen and is also a superior progressive passes than Fred.

The story with Bruno is similar as he ranks very highly with progressive passes.

Long story short, at least in our midfield, high progressive passing metrics is inversely correlated to pass completion percentage because of how adventurous with passing our creative midfielders are.

Yeah this is good context to the stats of our midfielders. De Jong would really be the perfect fit as he excellent in progressive passing and has very good pass accuracy

 

[FrankDrebin]

I think I'm right in saying that Hag want's us to be more possession focused throughout all levels of our playing teams/squads.

 

[Rozay]

‘Football Heritage’.

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

Years and years of training that doesn't respect possession. You dont get rid of it overnight.

 

[Siorac]

I mean you defeat your own argument there with the stats. 3 of the teams with better possession stats are below us in the table, and unless we get significantly worse than we have been, they will be staying there, because its not like its a small gap. Chelsea can barely score a goal.

I never said that possession is the only thing that matters; obviously, you can be good at keeping the ball and still be shite for other reasons.

I'm saying that the very top teams, those that regularly challenge for both the league and the Champions League, are excellent at ball retention and typically have high possession. They almost always dominate the lesser sides - look at Liverpool, even this season when they've gone to shit, they have around 60% possession both home and away on average. And Klopp is a far more direct manager than Guardiola.

Not having reliable goalscorers is an issue, of course, but it's not like we create tons of chances and waste the majority of them. We aren't a particularly wasteful team, in fact, we are quite clinical overall. Chelsea and Liverpool both miss far more chances than we do.

I'm not denying that Ten Hag inherited a mess and it will take time to fix. But one of the things that urgently needs fixing is our passing, our ability to retain the ball under pressure, to keep opponents pinned back. Even with a full squad, we aren't great at that though we've undoubtedly improved under Ten Hag.

 

[RuudTom83]

Casemiro has surprised people with his creativity/passing. I do wonder if he has adapted to United’s direct style more so than playing his normal protective style(?)

A midfield trio of Bruno, Eriksen and Casemiro(attacking mode) doesn’t look like a possession based team…

Hence the crappy passing stats.

 

[Beachryan]

We're chaos merchants. Really good ones, but that's our style. To be fair, kinda been that way forever. Bruno, Rashford, Fred, McT - these are not posession footballers, they thrive in the madness.

If we want to become more controlled we need a pretty different team. Casemiro, Eriksen, Martinez and Antony suggest that ETH is very much after this, but you can't replace a squad overnight.

 

[Marwood]

I recall our passing was already bad in the last few years of SAF's reign. There was a "Zombie Football" thread making its rounds on the CAF. RVP really saved us with his finishing. Back then, we also did not have very good young dynamic centre mids (kudos to Scholesy n Carrick who were aging but still trudging us along), who were crucial in playing a passing & controlling game.

Thereafter, the passing just got worse n worse thru Moyes, LVG, Jose & Ole's reigns. I see it picking up already with ETH. We have to give him time n allow him to bring in the right players to build up the passing style.

Very true. This has been going on a long time. Longer than some think.

It's why we weren't a serious threat in Europe anymore towards the end of Fergie's time.

 

[Ekeke]

Our current style is taking some risks in the middle of midfield to get the ball forward fast for counter attacks and chances. Then a bit in front of that usually is Fernandes, and thats his style too. Risky balls that hes capable of getting right and setting up a great chance but at the cost of giving the ball away too much and not finding the goods on a bad day. Then when Eriksen is fit he has a bit more care on the ball, and has still had enough quality to have our most assists. He hasnt kept the ball as well as I would have expected or liked, nor does he do much defensively at all... But he has 1 more assist than Bruno despite not being as risky, with 82.7% pass accuracy to Bruno's 76.6% and Casemiro's 77% in the league in comparison. So he is the one who retains the ball best with his passing at least, out of our central midfielders who start. McTom is 83.3%, Fred is 80% and Sabitzer is 82.4% so far with McTom being far behind the other CMs for key passes.

We dont look to have most of the ball and take teams on when they are set up defensively. We want to invite them forward, soak up the pressure, nick the ball and counter. And to do that we need our defensive players to do a really good job and not make mistakes despite doing more work than if we always aimed to have most of the ball and make the opponents work to get it back. Casemiro and Lisandro have been a great improvement in quality for this reliability in defensive areas, but as we've seen theres still some work to be done if we want to win titles and bigger tournaments than europa and domestic cups.

I would like to see an extra player come in who improves us centrally in defensive areas and helps us keep the ball better without us being much weaker going forward. By the numbers Caicedo for Eriksen would do that. So someone similar to him in that midfield position for me with give us more control of the ball and resilliance to opponent attacks and still a good threat going forward from our current forward players if they are in the same form as now +/- if they arent.

 

[Isotope]

Yep, I get you.
I also initially found out it surprising about Fred but I do remember looking at Fred's pass completion stats earlier in the season and they were actually much higher. He's at a tick under 81% now but a couple of months ago was at 83%. He plays it more safe than Eriksen, Casemiro and Bruno so that's why he's higher and he is also worse at progressive passing than all of them (same story for McTominay).

Eriksen probably ranks lower because he does a lot of long balls and switches that don't always hit their target, but he is an excellent progressive passer.

Casemiro had a much higher pass completion at Madrid. I remember when he joined us he was at around 85%, now down to just under 80%.
He obviously makes the odd mistake with short passes, and also makes a lot of long balls like Eriksen and is also a superior progressive passes than Fred.

The story with Bruno is similar as he ranks very highly with progressive passes.

Long story short, at least in our midfield, high progressive passing metrics is inversely correlated to pass completion percentage because of how adventurous with passing our creative midfielders are.

Love this.

 

[HookedOnAPhelan]

We have games (and halves) where we pass the ball really well, with confidence, and we look in complete control, and we have games (and halves) where we look completely inept and lost. The top level is this team is very, very good, and can compete with the best, but the bottom level is shocking.

I guess this inconsistency shouldn't be a surprise given Ten Hag has only been here 9 months.

 

[Big_Bro]

You will see that Bruno is the biggest culprit. Absolute idiot.

We have players that have low IQ too in their decision making.

Bruno isn't that bad a player. Yes he loses possession, that was one of the major concerns I had about signing him, we knew that about him still yet we signed him anyway.

So we'll have to deal with it. It's not the boys fault, he was that way in sporting and was banging lots of goals. Work on a formation suitable for him and get him into goal scoring positions.

 

[Greck]

Asides poor passing it's also a lack of close control and general ball retention talent, just being comfortable enough to not be rushed into bad decisions or keep the ball an extra nanosecond before a better option shows itself. Too many key players having situations where they just shit their pants. Kicker is they are our best players like De Gea and Bruno. Other players are no saints either, especially in the first two-thirds of build up.

 

[Big_Bro]

The coach is building a team in his image even though he's not there yet we are seeing glimpses of his team.
Let's remember this is just his first season and see how much improvement he has brought to the team.
He didn't inherit a Pirlo, Xavi, Scholes or even Carrick in his team but with only one astute signing in Eriksen we've seen enough to start dreaming of the title.
De Gea's distribution has improved greatly. Can only imagine what he will turn Mainoo into, just like he did with Ryan Gravenberch.
Let's not forget that Fred is having his best season in a utd shirt and Mctominay before he was dropped for Casemiro, he was getting into his stride. At some point I didn't want Mctominay dropped as he had gotten his rhythm. Eth has made the most of the squad he inherited without a single complaint.

The advances utd made at Rabiot and the continuous pursuit of De Jong indicates the kind of possession based football he wants to play.
If he's going to play a possession based football, some of the personnel's will definitely have to be changed. It will be interesting to see how he goes about it in the summer and to see the players he recruits.
These are exciting times, lets wait and see what he does next.

 

[Based Adnan]

We need an overhaul if we're serious about trying to be competent in possession. Only looked good today on the ball once Fulham went down to 9.

 

[NZT-One]

Think this is done intentionally by the manager. Seeing all the long balls played is surely done to circumvent a midfield battle. It has its merits in some games and having Eriksen and Casemiro out surely adds to it but right now, we are playing more or less the same stuff Ole played. At least in terms of chance creation.

 

[croadyman]

Clearly there is an issue when it comes to our passing full stop but particularly in final third. We definitely need to bring in players with better technical ability on the ball in next few windows.

 

[Telsim]

Reverted back to Oleball now. Wait for a break or cross the ball to Rashford. I sincerely hope this is not indicative of things to come, and it's because of the low overall quality of the squad and fatigue.

 

[sirAlexsglasses]

We do still seem to poor at ball retention with little ability and confidence in passing in tight spaces, I see many ”lesser” teams pressing us high much better than we are able to. Whether this is just lack of ability or little confidence in your team mate to receive and retain the ball I dont know, if we are to progress then we need to improve drasticall.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

I don't know why this confuses so many people. We have some truly awful footballers at this club. Not even Pep would be able to turn them into competent passers of the ball.

I'd rather we didn't spend all our budget on just one or two players. We need 4/5 good footballers to bolster the squad.

 

[Idxomer]

Yesterday in the midfield before the red cards, we had one player with 62% passing accuracy and the other 2 midfielders had no interest in getting on the ball.

We need an upgrade on Eriksen and a backup for Casemiro, both have to be very comfortable on the ball. Getting rid of all the other dead weight masquerading as squad players is also a must.

 

[Telsim]

I don't know why this confuses so many people. We have some truly awful footballers at this club. Not even Pep would be able to turn them into competent passers of the ball.

I'd rather we didn't spend all our budget on just one or two players. We need 4/5 good footballers to bolster the squad.

This is true. There are too many subpar players in the squad and the overall quality is just... bad, despite many claims of the opposite on this board. Soon as someone of the first XI is unavailable for selection, the replacements are leagues below.

We need better players, and a lot of them.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

This is true. There are too many subpar players in the squad and the overall quality is just... bad, despite many claims of the opposite on this board. Soon as someone of the first XI is unavailable for selection, the replacements are leagues below.

We need better players, and a lot of them.

Could have signed João Paulinha for 25m for example. A very tidy player and very combative too.

We tend to waste our transfer budgets on big signings that rarely work out that well.

With the Sancho n Antony money alone we could have signed 5/6 real quality footballers. This is why we need a huge shake up of our transfer strategy.

 

[wolvored]

TH has had one transfer window really ( not counting January when he wasnt backed and had to rely on loans). This was when he hadnt worked with any of the players and folks are saying he isnt a possession based manager. He has been here less than a season and has had to rely on what has been left by other managers, who the last two (not counting RR) certainly wasnt possession based managers and has had to work with that. Now in the summer and with new owners, you will see which way he wants to eventually play, with the players he brings in, if he can move the dross on. I think he will want to play a passing possession game, with high press off the ball.

 

[flappyjay]

Yesterday in the midfield before the red cards, we had one player with 62% passing accuracy and the other 2 midfielders had no interest in getting on the ball.

We need an upgrade on Eriksen and a backup for Casemiro, both have to be very comfortable on the ball. Getting rid of all the other dead weight masquerading as squad players is also a must.

The constant Hollywood passes dont help either. Even after Fulham had starved us of possession the 1st thing we did when we got the ball was hit it long. I got ptsd from ole's dark days because of last night's performance.