These numbers are so bad. I don't even know how we're this close to the top with such conversion rate and goals scored.
Will our forwards wake up from their slumbers in time to challenge for the league? | No. Hibernating now
- Thread starter Samid
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Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) discuss United's fantastic win away against Athletic Club in the semi-final of the Europa League.
They also pick out the positives of United's 4-3 loss away at Brentford, and Nik reviews a day out at Old Trafford watching Manchester United Women qualify for the Champions League.
Depends. If we keep forcing volume through Rashford, a 1 for 5 finisher, then 5/6th is best we can get. Greenwood or Cavani? Or an actual 2 in 3 finisher signed in January? Good chance for title.
it’s really that simple. With Bruno, Mata, Greenwood and Pogba supplying carving passes you need a high converter. As we know from past 4 years, Rashford and Martial are not high % finishers.
it’s really that simple. With Bruno, Mata, Greenwood and Pogba supplying carving passes you need a high converter. As we know from past 4 years, Rashford and Martial are not high % finishers.
Bruno
This...will be the key factor in whether or not we challenge this year. Our inconsistency this year is primarily driven by the inconsistency of our forwards (mainly Rashford/Martial), turning up for some games, getting complacent in others and simply not taking responsibility in some games. This is also why they're not at the level of Mane/Salah and Kane/Son who are considered world class due to their consistent high levels and have their respective teams challenging.
Bruno can only carry us for so long. At this rate, he will be exhausted by February/March. I hope Rashford/Martial can step up from now on and take up the challenge of progressing from last season. Greenwood is still a teenager and I'd leave him to develop/learn at his own pace.
Bruno can only carry us for so long. At this rate, he will be exhausted by February/March. I hope Rashford/Martial can step up from now on and take up the challenge of progressing from last season. Greenwood is still a teenager and I'd leave him to develop/learn at his own pace.
Is this a serious question?
All these comments and nobody has pointed out that we don't have a real centre forward other then Odion who is not getting a look in. Michael Antonio would add value to the squad if he was purchase and played.
Probably more realistic than £100 million for Mbappe..
Probably more realistic than £100 million for Mbappe..
Cavani has only had 3 first team starts this season if I remember correctly. We do not have a core first-team selection of centre forwards to choose from.
Hernandez has the right attitude, Martial the complete opposite
Was just about to say that. Its about bottom level. Both of them are brilliant when in form, but their bottom level is brutal compared to the really top attackers
You just said Mata is a better finisher than Greenwood and especially Cavani? Don’t get the logic there at all.
We’ve all watched Cavani for years and that’s enough to say it’s Cavani who is the predator with Bruno in our squad atm.
Martial has been awful this season which I don’t have a clue why personally. His form at the end of last season was pretty great at times. I actually tipped him to be our player of the year with Bruno this season and how wrong was I?! haha
486 minutes? So roughly 5 games.
That chance conversion rate is dire. How have our forwards regressed that much since last season?
I thought and saw that ole was improving their finishing compared to their time under mourinho. So what happened.
It's a strange season so far...we could take advantage of it if it starts to come together for us in the final third...but then we are conceding some bang average sloppy goals the other end as well.
An injury to Bruno and we are fecked though.
I would have said you were dreaming to see us anywhere near a title challenge at the start of the season....but given the form of those I expected to be pulling away...you just never know.
Liverpool, City, Spurs, United and Chelsea all should be looking at this thinking they have a chance of grabbing it by the scruff...obviously the first 2 the most obvious. Then you have the real outsiders in Leicester, Everton and Southampton...very unlikely of course but it's a strange time and any of the top 8 odd looks like they could drop points.
An injury to Bruno and we are fecked though.
I would have said you were dreaming to see us anywhere near a title challenge at the start of the season....but given the form of those I expected to be pulling away...you just never know.
Liverpool, City, Spurs, United and Chelsea all should be looking at this thinking they have a chance of grabbing it by the scruff...obviously the first 2 the most obvious. Then you have the real outsiders in Leicester, Everton and Southampton...very unlikely of course but it's a strange time and any of the top 8 odd looks like they could drop points.
Martial, Greenwood and Rashford haven't turned into terrible or inconsistent players overnight.
Greenwood will have to adapt as everyone knows how dangerous he is now. He could do with setting up a teammate every now and again rather than always taking the shot on.
None of them are scoring enough at the moment for various reasons but I can't see this poor run in front of goal continuing much longer.
Greenwood will have to adapt as everyone knows how dangerous he is now. He could do with setting up a teammate every now and again rather than always taking the shot on.
None of them are scoring enough at the moment for various reasons but I can't see this poor run in front of goal continuing much longer.
Martial and Rashford will always be wasteful. They are just that type of players. I don't think we can rely on them for goals but they should definitely be doing better than they are currently. Greenwood, Cavani and Bruno are the ones we should be depending on for the majority of our goals.
I’d really like to see Marcus, Tony and Mason all in top form for just four straight matches. Then they can all agree to take turns having an off day where one of them gets subbed off for Cavani, Mata or James and the other two are at 75% of peak. We could do some serious damage.
These are very good players, but for whatever reasons they’ll all struggling this season. It can’t go on much longer.
These are very good players, but for whatever reasons they’ll all struggling this season. It can’t go on much longer.
Traore? As in the guy that can’t get into the Wolves line up and doesn’t have a goal or assist this season.
Atalanta kid we paid 30m for in the summer?
On or off form you never get the feeling of constant danger with Martial that you get with the top strikers, because he's not as desperate to score as the top strikers.
And if there's any link between his poor form and the increased pressure in competition from Cavani he's also a massive wimp.
And if there's any link between his poor form and the increased pressure in competition from Cavani he's also a massive wimp.
He had that one mad season where he'd sprint 50 yards and lash in like he was using Fifa on cheat mode.
Most people probably remember his lazy year or 2 at the end and birthday cake nonsense though.
In fairness Cavani has only been here a while!
Over the next 3-4months he'll probably have started as many games as anyone up front. He's shown he still has qualities our other strikers don't.
Feck the stats Greenwood is as clinical as you can get!
My bad, completely blanked on that as it’s not the name he uses.
I don’t really have any expectations of him making a difference this season. Ole won’t put in VDB, an established international. He’s not going to take out one of our forwards for Diallo.
Yeah. One that got sensible answers regarding how many penalties and free kicks he scored. I didn't know he was taking the pens and free kicks, which from the sounds of it account for half the goals. I don't think I massively underrate him or anything, I do remember thinking he was the best player in the league for a period.
Were you in a weirdly aggressive mood here or is it genuinely shocking to you that I was curious how a midfielder came to score 20 Premier League goals?
We need 2 of our front 3 firing at all times. It's how Spurs and Liverpool have kept in this race. We're really over-depending on Rashford at the moment.
Martial took his chance tonight, that will be a major confidence boost for him.
Seems like he is taking too many touches due to lack of form or confidence. One moment in particular when he was through on goal and chested it instead of smashing it first time, those little things can improve.
Here's hoping the forwards gained confidence tonight and beginning to take their chances.
I don't think we have problem in scoring, our problem is leaking during 1st 15min.
Forwards aren't our problem even Martial and Greenwood's conversion need to improve, we have the 7th worst defense in the league. More specifically, we're by far the worst set piece defenders other than Leeds imo. Every opposition knows that they can probably grab a goal from a corner or free kick over the course of 90 against us.
I still think without Fred we give up the midfield battle too easily so the amount and the quality of chances still aren’t what they should be, its Rashford and martial playing 1/2s trying to walk it in or a moment of Bruno magic or a counterattack. There’s nobody attacking crosses in the box trying to score a scrappy goal, create an outlet or pull defenders out of position....
We need to take control of games a lot more. We need to be more aggressive in general and then the forwards will hopefully become more clinical. That’s how I think it’ll all click, if it does.
We need to take control of games a lot more. We need to be more aggressive in general and then the forwards will hopefully become more clinical. That’s how I think it’ll all click, if it does.
This is true, we create some chances but rarely cutback and shoot ones, more through balls to our fast strikers. I
f we attack an organised defender which we often do due to our slow build up play we're simply wank.
Also we REALLY need to work on our set-pieces both offensively and defensively. And how come all set-piece specialists become below average after they come here, I swear take Ward Prowse on a 6 month loan and he won't be able to beat the first man on corners! Mental!
We conceded the same amount as Liverpool. Forwards also problem because they are inconsistent. Our top scorer is with 7 league goals while team like Liverpool and spurs had their top scorers with 11 league goals.
this one
They scored for fun last year after the covid break and that was mainly against the lower ranked teams.
It definitely wasn’t all on the counter, we were controlling games with Matic and pogba and our play had more rhythm.
Our opponents are pressing us more and making it more difficult for us. Once we control games better which will come if we keep winning then our forwards can be terrifying.
It definitely wasn’t all on the counter, we were controlling games with Matic and pogba and our play had more rhythm.
Our opponents are pressing us more and making it more difficult for us. Once we control games better which will come if we keep winning then our forwards can be terrifying.
Conversion rate of previous winners:
19/20: 22 %
18/19: 19 %
17/18: 21 %
16/17: 21 %
15/16: 19 %
14/15: 19 %
13/14: 22 %
12/13: 20 %
11/12: 18 %
We've gone from 9.7 % to 11.1 % in the last few weeks. An improvement but still a way off title winning percentages. Fortunately everyone else is bad too. We're also the team with best form and momentum so in theory it should be easier for us to add a clinical edge to our game compared to some of our rivals who can't even buy a goal recently.
Conversion rate is one of the stats I like the most because it can tell you a lot about how your season is progressing. High ratio means you're likely scoring early and then for whatever reasons (higher confidence, opponents forced to commit men forward etc.) you won't need too many shots to score again. Low ratio says you're probably not getting enough clear cut opportunities meaning you're forced to take desperate pot shots as the game progresses and subsequently you drop points.
14 goals in 5 games is very good but there's still this feeling we aren't clinical enough for a title challenger. We need to learn to kill off games in the first hour. Ultimately we can't leave it until the final 10 minutes in every game if we want to win the title. Not only does it drain energy having to be 100 % switched on for 90 minutes game after game but we also leave ourselves vulnerable to random last ditch moments deciding the outcome of the game.
We've won 10 games but only one of those wins were somewhat comfortable at half time. Even that second half was nervous because Leeds almost pulled another back and at 4-2 they're crazy enough to make us sweat in the final half hour. Some will argue that "any win will do" and whilst that is true it's also not sustainable to rely on grinding out results every single time. We need some good old-fashioned 3-0 and 4-0 wins for the sake of sanity.
19/20: 22 %
18/19: 19 %
17/18: 21 %
16/17: 21 %
15/16: 19 %
14/15: 19 %
13/14: 22 %
12/13: 20 %
11/12: 18 %
We've gone from 9.7 % to 11.1 % in the last few weeks. An improvement but still a way off title winning percentages. Fortunately everyone else is bad too. We're also the team with best form and momentum so in theory it should be easier for us to add a clinical edge to our game compared to some of our rivals who can't even buy a goal recently.
Conversion rate is one of the stats I like the most because it can tell you a lot about how your season is progressing. High ratio means you're likely scoring early and then for whatever reasons (higher confidence, opponents forced to commit men forward etc.) you won't need too many shots to score again. Low ratio says you're probably not getting enough clear cut opportunities meaning you're forced to take desperate pot shots as the game progresses and subsequently you drop points.
14 goals in 5 games is very good but there's still this feeling we aren't clinical enough for a title challenger. We need to learn to kill off games in the first hour. Ultimately we can't leave it until the final 10 minutes in every game if we want to win the title. Not only does it drain energy having to be 100 % switched on for 90 minutes game after game but we also leave ourselves vulnerable to random last ditch moments deciding the outcome of the game.
We've won 10 games but only one of those wins were somewhat comfortable at half time. Even that second half was nervous because Leeds almost pulled another back and at 4-2 they're crazy enough to make us sweat in the final half hour. Some will argue that "any win will do" and whilst that is true it's also not sustainable to rely on grinding out results every single time. We need some good old-fashioned 3-0 and 4-0 wins for the sake of sanity.
How do our conversion rates in the previous 10 seasons compare to our main rivals? I'd also be interested in seeing how many opportunities we create per game versus our main rivals. We do miss chances, but if we're creating a lot less than City and Liverpool are, that creates added pressure to finish them. You see both City and Liverpool players missing golden chances week after week, for example Salah when he's in selfish mode (most games), but they create so many other chances per game.
I believe our forwards can wake up from their slump. Alternatively, I could be open to the idea of signing Mbappe and Haaland in the January transfer window.
I've posted the conversion rates for the past 10 winners in the post above but the rates for all teams are available here.
Those stats are so different across the board that I wonder if they've changed how they count them. Normally the bottom teams are getting around 10%, whereas this season that would put you right near the top. Not sure what they could change to make the stats so different though, it'd be hard to count shots differently.
Sheffield United have a 3.9% conversion rate!
Sheffield United have a 3.9% conversion rate!
Has transfermarkt changed how they calculate this? Because the average conversion rate of the Premier League this season is 8.5% - it was 14.6% last season, 15.1% the season before that. I don't really believe that suddenly every team forgot how to finish chances.
There's a narrative on the caf at the moment that we're very wasteful - I think it's actually the opposite, we're quite clinical overall. As far as I'm aware, we outperform both our expected goals and expected points totals. That PSG game just messed with perceptions.
Yes this seems very fishy indeed - the average conversion rate is about 8% for all teams - I quickly checked and there have been roughly 2.7 goals pr match this season - that would indicate that the average match had 34 chances. Now that seems incredibly high