World Chess Championship: Anand vs Carlsen II

[NM]

So what do you think?

Anand just played at a 2850 rating and cruised through the candidates with ease. He should arguably be even further ahead.

On the other hand, Carlsen is rated 2880+, and thumped Anand (with Anand making incredible blunders) last time out.

Will the old champion have one last hurrah or will Carlsen prove youth > experience.

My heart says Anand, but the smart money is on Carlsen.

@Danny1982

 

[Danny1982]

I think this will just add some weight to the win Carlsen had against Anand last year, because now it doesn't look like Carlsen won only because Anand was no longer the best around, and he simply benefited from playing a man at the end of his career who was only kept world champion this long because of the format of the competition.. It now looks like he played a top top player indeed, and a worthy champion. He was just better and beat him..

Not that it means Carlsen played a 30 years old Anand mind you, but he was still a very strong player when he played him.

I hope it will be a better match this time than last year, and needless to say it would be Anand's best achievement yet if he was to beat him, but I think Carlsen will come out on top again, though by a narrower margin than last year.

 

[NM]

Disagree completely actually. Anand played very poorly leading up to the world championships and immediately after it. Nobody considered him a possible winner at the candidates, and he only played because Kramnik convinced him to over a dinner.

We have to see if this is a one-off, vor if he maintains this impressive form into the match with Carlsen.

Carlsen comes across as a real cnut in the youtube commentaries he is doing on the candidates btw.

 

[Danny1982]

He has always been to be honest.

Form is an important factor. But it's at least fair to say that Anand hasn't lost it yet. He can still play.

Also, when it will be all written in the history books, the details will be forgotten, and the fact that Anand immediately challenged him for the title on the next year does give the indication that Anand wasn't really finished.

I know Anand made a couple of blunders in the endgames during the world championship match, but Carlsen also played near perfect games. Anand actually didn't play that bad really, and managed to squeeze an advantage that he couldn't capitalize on at an early stage of the match (game 3 I think).

In my opinion, Anand can still play at a very high level, but it's just a little bit more likely now for him to blunder than 10 years ago, because of his age.

I think he'll surprise you this time, and even though he will lose imo, it will be a lot closer than last time around.

 

[Mani]

End game would be crucial if Anand need to win this,considering his age I don't think its possible for Anand play long games with carlsen nature of squeeze out win from anything left on the board.All we can expect his better fight from Anand compared to last one with less pressure playing away from home.

 

[NM]

I'm not too sure. He played very differently in the candidates. Carlsen is certainly more likely to squeeze a +0.5 position to a win, but I think the key is for Vishy is to play a complicated middlegame and REFUSE to begin the endgame. Carlsen can grind anybody there.

 

[zing]

when's tihs? long way off?

 

[Danny1982]

when's tihs? long way off?

Some 6 months I think.

 

[pillory]

There are problems with finding a host, though. No bids yet.

 

[pillory]

Sochi it is, apparently, but I wouldn't bet on it.

In other news Carlsen just had a terrible tournament and finished second behind Karjakin with +2 from nine at Norway Chess. The result itself obviously isn't very terrible,* but he got 1.5 points from two games he was losing (against Aronian and Caruana), threw away a win against Svidler and wasted his advantage against old man Agdestein numerous times before he won a drawn endgame.

* Rating performance 2841. Kramnik and world #2 Aronian scored -1. Carlsen has 22 consecutive tournaments since 2010 with a score of at least +2, the worst being +2 from 10 rounds (60%). His worst rating performance since 2010 is 2815, which is the #2's current official rating. Insane stability.

 

[pillory]

Carlsen just became world rapid champion. Blitz tomorrow and Friday. He pretty much sealed it in the second to last round when he managed to beat Grischuk from a lost position with 15 seconds (plus 10 seconds per move) left on the clock. Anand also had a good tournament and finished half a point behind along with three others. He was the only unbeaten player of 122 and the only one to beat Carlsen, which might be a nice confidence boost for the WC match. Admittedly he only won because Carlsen blundered horribly in the endgame, but he "won" the opening with black as well.

 

[pillory]

And now Carlsen is the classical, rapid and blitz WC. Amazing achievement. Unfortunately there is zero chance of Norway winning the Olympiad.

Carlsen and Anand's last game (probably) before the match was a boring draw.

 

[Jippy]

pillory talking to himself. It's like me in the darts thread half the time.

 

[pillory]

Imagine my disappointment when I finally got a reply and it turned out to be that!

 

[NM]

And now Carlsen is the classical, rapid and blitz WC. Amazing achievement. Unfortunately there is zero chance of Norway winning the Olympiad.

Carlsen and Anand's last game (probably) before the match was a boring draw.

Did they play in the blitz? Anand beat Carlsen in the rapid.

Carlsen ALWAYS beats who he is supposed to beat - that's what won him these titles. As much as I dislike him, he is miles ahead of the rest right now.

 

[Danny1982]

Imagine my disappointment when I finally got a reply and it turned out to be that!

I didn't reply but I was following your posts. Thanks for posting the updates, keep 'em coming!

 

[pillory]

Did they play in the blitz? Anand beat Carlsen in the rapid.

Carlsen ALWAYS beats who he is supposed to beat - that's what won him these titles. As much as I dislike him, he is miles ahead of the rest right now.

Yes, that was the boring draw. And you're right, in the rapid and blitz overall Carlsen's score against the household names wasn't all that impressive (7.5/13), but he wiped out the rest with 20.5/23. The guys who finished second did better against their peers, but considerably worse against the lesser-knowns.

I didn't reply but I was following your posts. Thanks for posting the updates, keep 'em coming!

Thank you! Do you know if Anand has any tournaments lined up before the match, by the way?

 

[NM]

Yes, that was the boring draw. And you're right, in the rapid and blitz overall Carlsen's score against the household names wasn't all that impressive (7.5/13), but he wiped out the rest with 20.5/23. The guys who finished second did better against their peers, but considerably worse against the lesser-knowns.


Thank you! Do you know if Anand has any tournaments lined up before the match, by the way?

Not sure about Anand's schedule. He might play for Baden Baden if the German league is on, but no clue about that.

I reckon the match will be closer, but expect Carlsen to win it again. He's simply the better player right now. Anand is a little past his prime - this will probably be his last hurrah

 

[Danny1982]

Thank you! Do you know if Anand has any tournaments lined up before the match, by the way?

I don't really. I haven't been following much chess lately, which is why I was following this thread to keep myself in touch before the world championship match, which I will follow closely.

 

[pillory]

People say Anand's next event will be Bilbao in September, while Carlsen will play the Olympiad and probably the Sinquefield Cup, and I guess that's it for both of them before the match.

 

[Danny1982]

So, Carlsen lost two of his last three games in the Olympiad ahead of his world championship match against Anand. Hope for Anand? May be not. Last year Carlsen also lost two out of the last three (if I remember correctly) in the candidates, and we all know what happened after that.

What a game by Saric though!

 

[pillory]

Two of his last four, actually. Could have been three of the last four (he won a lost position against Turkey). His performance rating of 2799 would of course be considered perfectly acceptable or even very good for any other player, but it's his worst since 2010, it could easily have been much worse, and he probably hasn't played as badly as he did in the last few rounds since, er, the last time he played an Olympiad (also 2010).

One more thing: After nine of eleven rounds, ie before his last game, Carlsen was actually the top performer on board 1, meaning he was on course for winning the classical WC, the rapid WC, the blitz WC and the board 1 gold in the Olympiad within 9 months. Oh well.

Anyway, I think it was probably just a blip brought on by the unusual conditions, but we'll see how he does in the Sinquefield Cup.

In other news Judit Polgar has retired in her 25th (or 26th?) consecutive year as the women's #1. Good timing, because Hou Yifan was catching up with her at a fearsome rate. (This should really go in the general chess thread I intend to start one day.)

 

[Cantonaaa!]

Not the right thread, but anyone watching Caruana vs Carlsen tonight? Caruana has 7 straight wins, which is unheard of really, and he is currently nr. 2 in the world and gaining points on Magnus fast. Carlsen playing with black.

 

[pillory]

I watched it. Spectacular tournament, the best I can remember having followed. As an in-tournament run Caruana's is surely the greatest ever, and even more so when you take into consideration the quality of his play. If he doesn't lose against Aronian now (and I don't think he will), it's probably the greatest tournament performance ever too.

Carlsen's result was slightly disappointing, considering he had scored at least +2 in 22 or something consecutive tournaments before this one, but finishing second in an extremely strong tournament isn't the end of the world. I guess we'll find out very soon if there will actually be an Anand-Carlsen match.

 

[pillory]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I guess this means it's on.

 

[Danny1982]

In case people forgot, the match starts tomorrow!

According to "a statistician" Carlsen has a 84% chance of winning the match (based on the ELO ratings). Bookmakers have Carlsen as a 1-4 favorite to win.

So, who will win? Or let me re-phrase that in a better way.. Is there anybody here who thinks Anand will win?

Personally I think Carlsen will win in the end, but it will be closer than last year. Hope Anand wins though.

 

[pillory]

Personally I think Carlsen will win in the end, but it will be closer than last year.

That seems to be what everybody thinks, including myself!

 

[NM]

In case people forgot, the match starts tomorrow!

According to "a statistician" Carlsen has a 84% chance of winning the match (based on the ELO ratings). Bookmakers have Carlsen as a 1-4 favorite to win.

So, who will win? Or let me re-phrase that in a better way.. Is there anybody here who thinks Anand will win?

Personally I think Carlsen will win in the end, but it will be closer than last year. Hope Anand wins though.

I hope: Anand to win

I think: Carlsen to cruise to the win. Anand will never play a championship match again.

 

[Danny1982]

I hope: Anand to win

I think: Carlsen to cruise to the win. Anand will never play a championship match again.

Not that I disagree with you, but people also thought that last year.

That seems to be what everybody thinks, including myself!

Ok then, let's try to make it interesting.. How do you think the match will go per game?

My "prediction":

Game 01: Draw
Game 02: Draw
Game 03: Draw
Game 04: Draw
Game 05: Draw
Game 06: Draw
Game 07: Draw
Game 08: Carlsen
Game 09: Draw
Game 10: Draw
Game 11: Draw
Game 12: Carlsen

Final score: 7-5 for Carlsen

 

[NM]

Not that I disagree with you, but people also thought that last year.


Ok then, let's try to make it interesting.. How do you think the match will go per game?

My "prediction":

Game 01: Draw
Game 02: Draw
Game 03: Draw
Game 04: Draw
Game 05: Draw
Game 06: Draw
Game 07: Draw
Game 08: Carlsen
Game 09: Draw
Game 10: Draw
Game 11: Draw
Game 12: Carlsen

Final score: 7-5 for Carlsen

I think Vishy's obsession with the title will adversely impact his legacy actually. He could have won a lot more tourneys, but he never used any of his home prep in them. He can easily win more tournaments now, but I can't see him beating the likes of Carlsen or the rising stars like Caruana over 12 games.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[pillory]

Ok then, let's try to make it interesting.. How do you think the match will go per game?

Hah. My gut predicts a Carlsen win in one of the first three rounds and at least one Anand win. In fact my gut predicts loads of action and six or seven decisive games, which seems hopelessly unrealistic, but let's say Carlsen in the 2nd, Anand in the 5th, Carlsen in the 7th and the rest drawn.

 

[pillory]

Grischuk is on a Caruana-like run at the moment, by the way. Six straight wins (so far) against top opposition - though significantly less top than Caruana's (but including beating Caruana with black), and over two tournaments.

And Caruana has had two relatively poor tournaments in a row, probably due to playing way too many of them, so at least Carlsen won't have to worry about losing his #1 spot in the match.

 

[Danny1982]

I think Vishy's obsession with the title will adversely impact his legacy actually. He could have won a lot more tourneys, but he never used any of his home prep in them. He can easily win more tournaments now, but I can't see him beating the likes of Carlsen or the rising stars like Caruana over 12 games.

I hope I'm wrong.

I'm not sure. Right or wrong, legacy in chess is mostly about the world championship. I don't think winning 3 or 4 more tournaments would have helped his legacy more than retaining the world championship for one more time.

I agree though that him being out of the world championship contention would probably allow the chess fans to see more of him, something we all would love. However, there is still at least one more match for him to go.

 

[Zarlak]

Not that I disagree with you, but people also thought that last year.


Ok then, let's try to make it interesting.. How do you think the match will go per game?

My "prediction":

Game 01: Draw
Game 02: Draw
Game 03: Draw
Game 04: Draw
Game 05: Draw
Game 06: Draw
Game 07: Draw
Game 08: Carlsen
Game 09: Draw
Game 10: Draw
Game 11: Draw
Game 12: Carlsen

Final score: 7-5 for Carlsen

What's so special about game 8 and 12 that he will win those?

 

[Danny1982]

What's so special about game 8 and 12 that he will win those?

Game 8, Anand will get tired and will start taking more risks in the second half of the match. The last game he'll have to go for it, and there is a good chance that he'll go too far as well. (Carlsen will play it safe in games 9-11 and go for the easy draws because he doesn't want to allow Vishy back in the game).

That's the general "logic" behind it.

I'm simply predicting many draws, Carlsen winning narrowly, and Anand not winning any games.

 

[Danny1982]

Promising start for game 1 by the way...

 

[Varun]

Promising start for game 1 by the way...

How's it going?

 

[Danny1982]

How's it going?

Still equal, but still unbalanced. Anand with a bad pawn structure, but he has a bishop against a knight and he's the closest of the two to having an initiative. If we go to the endgame as it is I feel Carlsen has a chance, but Anand seems to be more interested in the middle game right now.

 

[TheBest]

Where are you guys following this match?

 

[Danny1982]

Where are you guys following this match?

http://www.sochi2014.fide.com/live-video/