X-File 04 - Mediums, spiritualism, past life regression e.t.c.

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Bit of a pause for last week, and besides there were plenty more important topics being discussed.

So...

Anyone ever been in the presence of either? Perhaps even taken part yourself? Some are no doubt on the make but are they all?

 

[Partizan]

For the last fifteen years, James Randi, magician and sceptic, has kept one million dollars in a bank vault for the first medium who can replicate their performance under scientific conditions, the money remains uncollected.

 

[nickm]

Yeah, I saw someone do a cold reading once: zoomed in on someone whose relative had just died and went to town on it. Thought it was disgusting; total exploitative charlatans.

 

[lynchie]

These X-Files threads are getting Professional Jenna a lot of exposure on the Caf.

 

[Mihajlovic]

These X-Files threads are getting Professional Jenna a lot of exposure on the Caf.

Please note that she is so different from all other Astrologers!!!

 

[Wibble]

For the last fifteen years, James Randi, magician and sceptic, has kept one million dollars in a bank vault for the first medium who can replicate their performance under scientific conditions, the money remains uncollected.

Thread closed.

 

[vanthaman]

a couple of my mates saw a medium at the weekend, she seemed to know everything about them

 

[Wibble]

Of of course she did.

Perhaps they should tell her about the million quid that she is missing out on.

 

[Wibble]

a couple of my mates saw a medium at the weekend, she seemed to know everything about them

I'll now cold read you. How did I do?

Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary and reserved. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others' opinions without satisfactory proof. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety, and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside.

Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you.

 

[Wibble]

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Somebody my mum knows went to see a spiritualist recently and was apparently fairly convincing. I mean i've never been to one myself but the woman supposedly on behalf of a relative told this friend of my mother that she liked the new black tattoo of a lion that her son had got.

Without spying that's quite a guess.

I don't know, i'm sure there are fraudsters but maybe not all perhaps, at least not knowingly.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I once saw a program on 'past lives' on TV. It culminated in a get together of believers who all came dressed as the character that they were in a past life...

There were two Alexander the Greats, two King Arthurs and three Napoleons. Brilliant.

 

[Wibble]

Somebody my mum knows went to see a spiritualist recently and was apparently fairly convincing. I mean i've never been to one myself but the woman supposedly on behalf of a relative told this friend of my mother that she liked the new black tattoo of a lion that her son had got.

Without spying that's quite a guess.

I don't know, i'm sure there are fraudsters but maybe not all perhaps, at least not knowingly.

Got to be fraud of some description since none of them can ever replicate such success in blind testing.

 

[Partizan]

Got to be fraud of some description since none of them can ever replicate such success in blind testing.

Its funny how often this stuff comes down to, "a friend of my cousins workmate" it is spread the same way as urban legends, credulity, and Chinese whispers.

 

[Wibble]

I was once read because I though it was bullshit. And it was. Give out no information and don't react when given a vague bit of info that allows the medium to adjust their guess and they are screwed. Give them fake info and reactions and they will run with it every time.

 

[Wibble]

Its funny how often this stuff comes down to, "a friend of my cousins workmate" it is spread the same way as urban legends, credulity, and Chinese whispers.

I was told at a party on Saturday that someone knew someone who had made $30k this season by betting on United $700 per game, 4 bets. United win by a 1, 2, 3 and 4 goal margin. I checked the odds for a few games and this is plainly bullshit because you would lose approximatley a third of your stae over a season by my estimate. If it were that easy everyone would be doing it and bookies would be screwing up their odds rather badly. But the bloke I spoke to was convinced that his mate's mate was doing this.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

Its funny how often this stuff comes down to, "a friend of my cousins workmate" it is spread the same way as urban legends, credulity, and Chinese whispers.

I do hope that you are not implying anything in regard to the specific case that i cited.

 

[Wibble]

I think he is implying that your friend's mother's son is in fact your mother's friend's workmate's cousin.

Once removed.

Probably.

 

[nickm]

Somebody my mum knows went to see a spiritualist recently and was apparently fairly convincing. I mean i've never been to one myself but the woman supposedly on behalf of a relative told this friend of my mother that she liked the new black tattoo of a lion that her son had got.

Without spying that's quite a guess.

I don't know, i'm sure there are fraudsters but maybe not all perhaps, at least not knowingly.

The lion tattoo is one of the 25 top tattoos across both sexes: http://www.vanishingtattoo.com/tattoos_designs_symbols_top25_2005.htm

Assuming the top 25 is evenly split between tattoos men like and tattoos women like, the medium had a one in 12 chance of guessing right.

I expect the odds are actually better than that if the lad is a certain age, lives in a certain area etc. All it would take is a call to a local tattoo parlour to see what was popular with lads of a certain age.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

The lion tattoo is one of the 25 top tattoos across both sexes: http://www.vanishingtattoo.com/tattoos_designs_symbols_top25_2005.htm

Assuming the top 25 is evenly split between tattoos men like and tattoos women like, the medium had a one in 12 chance of guessing right.

I expect the odds are actually better than that if the lad is a certain age, lives in a certain area etc. All it would take is a call to a local tattoo parlour to see what was popular with lads of a certain age.

And if the spiritualist had no prior knowledge that she even had a son? All just good guesses the whole way through, hm.

The stats are interesting mind.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It's irrelevant. No one talks of all the times these people get it wrong...that's not a story worth telling.

But the odd occasion that a 'mind-reader' makes a lucky hit, the story gets relayed many times. Like is happening here by Nick for example.

For the odds of guessing a specific feature to be of any relevance you would need to know the total number of guesses that the 'psychic' makes, and gets wrong.

 

[nickm]

And if the spiritualist had no prior knowledge that she even had a son? All just good guesses the whole way through, hm.

There's a technique they use for getting this info, then it's easy to lob in a few "facts". People remember what the medium got right, not what she got wrong.

Derren Brown does this shit too, and he's not psychic.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

For the odds of guessing a specific feature to be of any relevance you would need to know the total number of guesses that the 'psychic' makes, and gets wrong.

Well i don't know that in his instance currently although she is apparently seeing her again later in the year. I await the feedback with interest.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

I once saw a program on 'past lives' on TV. It culminated in a get together of believers who all came dressed as the character that they were in a past life...

There were two Alexander the Greats, two King Arthurs and three Napoleons. Brilliant.

At the very least it reveals to us to immense about of knowledge that our brains store, i mean when in regard to these people writing in other languages and handwriting that isn't their own, and about things they didn't think they knew.

 

[Rood]

For the last fifteen years, James Randi, magician and sceptic, has kept one million dollars in a bank vault for the first medium who can replicate their performance under scientific conditions, the money remains uncollected.

proves nothing - not everyone is motivated by money or fame

the big problem with psychics/mediums etc is that the vast majority are clearly fakers - makes it difficult to work out if there are any with real abilities.

 

[Chris H]

proves nothing - not everyone is motivated by money or fame

No. It proves that despite tremendous financial incentive to do so, not a single one of thousands of self-proclaimed "psychics" has stepped forward to demonstrate the truthfulness of their claims in a setting that they can't rig beforehand.

This is telling.

 

[Chris H]

I'll now cold read you. How did I do?

Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary and reserved. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others' opinions without satisfactory proof. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety, and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside.

Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you.

That's uncanny! How could you have known?

Oh wait, that wasn't for me. Still, you have a talent.

 

[Rood]

No. It proves that despite tremendous financial incentive to do so, not a single one of thousands of self-proclaimed "psychics" has stepped forward to demonstrate the truthfulness of their claims in a setting that they can't rig beforehand.

This is telling.

Might be to you but to me it doesnt prove anything about whether people with psychic powers exist

 

[Spoony]

There's a technique they use for getting this info, then it's easy to lob in a few "facts". People remember what the medium got right, not what she got wrong.

Derren Brown does this shit too, and he's not psychic.

His seance was brilliant, as well.

Oh and South Park had a fantastic episode about mind readers/mediums.

 

[Partizan]

proves nothing - not everyone is motivated by money or fame

the big problem with psychics/mediums etc is that the vast majority are clearly fakers - makes it difficult to work out if there are any with real abilities.

James Randi has been making monkeys out of them for years, if they had the slightest chance to rub his nose in it they'd take it, they haven't, speaks volumes.

 

[Rood]

James Randi has been making monkeys out of them for years, if they had the slightest chance to rub his nose in it they'd take it, they haven't, speaks volumes.

I find this to be a very small minded view of things - some random guy that the vast majority of the planet have never heard of is offering a reward for proof of paranormal powers and no one has claimed it - so fecking what?

this kind of media stunt mostly just applies to debunking the kind of celebrity mediums that appear on TV in the USA etc - i dont have much time for any of that bullshit anyway - they are entertainers who put on a show and nothing more.

It is well documented that MoD and other government organisations have spent a lot of time and money researching the potential of psychics and other paranormal activity - in fact they have been doing it for decades, if they never found anything of any use then why would they continue spending time and money on this?

 

[DoctorEvil]

I find this to be a very small minded view of things - some random guy that the vast majority of the planet have never heard of is offering a reward for proof of paranormal powers and no one has claimed it - so fecking what?

this kind of media stunt mostly just applies to debunking the kind of celebrity mediums that appear on TV in the USA etc - i dont have much time for any of that bullshit anyway - they are entertainers who put on a show and nothing more.

It is well documented that MoD and other government organisations have spent a lot of time and money researching the potential of psychics and other paranormal activity - in fact they have been doing it for decades, if they never found anything of any use then why would they continue spending time and money on this?

I believe you will find that most promoters of this type on nonsense know Randi, and have known of his challenge for years. Most rationalize their refusal to apply by claiming he is dishonest.

By the way, the challenge will be discontinued soon, as almost all applications in the last few years were crazy. The 'professionals' know not to apply, since they can not preform under tight controls.

Ass for various government investing money in such nonsense. It has happened and brought no results. This goes to show that complete idiots can be found everywhere. I am sure that governments would continue to throw public money on nonsense in the future. I only wish they would give it to me instead. Maybe I could finally realize my devious plan of training squirrels as spies and combat soldiers.

 

[Rood]

I believe you will find that most promoters of this type on nonsense know Randi, and have known of his challenge for years. Most rationalize their refusal to apply by claiming he is dishonest.

Rubbish - he might be known in North America or Europe but do you think someone in Thailand or India knows who the feck Randi is?
Very small minded to assume that someone who is known to some people in the Western world is world famous.

For the record, I had never heard of Randi before this thread.
Im up for the challenge

Ass for various government investing money in such nonsense. It has happened and brought no results.

How do you know?

If there were no results then why would they continue to spend more time and money after decades and decades of research - I assume they are not so sure as yourself that it is all nonsense.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Suggest a plausible physical mechanism by which these 'powers' can work, and then we can see if it exists.

 

[DoctorEvil]

How do you know?

If there were no results then why would they continue to spend more time and money after decades and decades of research - I assume they are not so sure as yourself that it is all nonsense.

I do not know whether Randi is known in India or not. However, you can probably find some skeptical organizations in India. In fact, I vaguely seem to remember a recent TV show in India where someone claimed that he can kill others using his mind, and a local skeptic challenged him to do so. Perhaps one of our Indian members will know more.

As for how do I know about government spending into nonsense. In countries such as the US these things get declassified after a while, and you can find just how many idiots happen to work for a government.
From the Skeptic dictionary:

CIA spokesman Mark Mansfield said: "The CIA is reviewing available programs regarding parapsychological phenomena, mostly remote viewing, to determine their usefulness to the intelligence community" (Cole 1995). He also notes that the Stargate program was found to be "unpromising" in the 1970s and was turned over to the Defense Department. At one time as many as sixteen psychics worked for the government and the Defense Intelligence Agency made them available to other government departments. One of the psychics, David Morehouse, was recruited when he took a bullet in the head in Jordan and started having visions and vivid nightmares. He's written a book about it (Psychic Warrior) and it is sure to be better received by true believers than Mansfield's disclaimer.

McMoneagle was just one of the alleged remote viewers studied by Targ and Puthoff at the Stanford Research Institute (later called SRI International and neither having any connection to Stanford University). Puthoff left SRI in 1985 and Targ left in 1982 (Marks 2000: 71). May joined SRI in 1975 and became the director of the program when Puthoff left. In 1990 the program moved to another “think tank,” Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), a major defense contractor and a Fortune 500 company with some 38,000 employees worldwide (Marks: 73). Stargate was stopped because the government determined that even if there is some truth to the remote viewing claims, it is too unreliable to be of any military value. One important research finding was that “neither practice nor training consistently improved remote-viewing ability” (Radin 1997: 102).

Radin says the remote viewing program “finally wound down in 1994.” He doesn’t mention that the CIA shut it down because they were convinced that after 24 years of experiments it was clear that remote viewing was of no practical value to the intelligence community (Marks: 75). The CIA report noted that in the case of remote viewing there was a large amount of irrelevant, erroneous information that was provided and there was little agreement observed among the reports of the remote viewers (Marks: 77). Radin doesn’t mention that May objected to the CIA report because it didn’t make note of the fact that he had four independent replications of remote viewing. May didn’t publicize the fact, however, that there were also at least six reported instances of failed replication.

24 years of waisted public funds. Just imagine how many spying squirrels I could have trained with this amount of resources.

 

[crappycraperson]

Absolutely sickening. To take advantage of people's grief like that. Scum.

 

[Wibble]

Mediums and spiritualists would take Randi's challenge for free if they could just to stop him embarrassing the feck out of them. The idea that they wouldn't for a million bucks is comedic.

 

[Rood]

Suggest a plausible physical mechanism by which these 'powers' can work, and then we can see if it exists.

My best guess would be some kind of evolution of the human mind or at least a step forward in the ability to harness the full potential of the brain.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

My best guess would be some kind of evolution of the human mind or at least a step forward in the ability to harness the full potential of the brain.

No that's not what I'm talking about. How are the 'psychic waves', or whatever, transmitted? What kind of particle/wave is emitted and where is it received? Then we can look for these emissions...

No spiritualist I've ever encountered has ever even considered such a question and, to be honest, it usually makes them quite uncomfortable. But they feel they have to answer and so usually mumble something about 'quantum' this or 'energy field' that. All nonsense of course.

 

[nickm]

My best guess would be some kind of evolution of the human mind or at least a step forward in the ability to harness the full potential of the brain.

Why do you want to believe that cheap magic tricks are actually ESP?

More likely these people are con artists or mistaken, than possessors of powers that nobody has ever detected.