- Oct 25, 2020
xG doesn't "say what they should be having". It's not a prediction. It just quantifies the volume and quality of scoring chances. And it's no surprise that a finisher like Haaland gets a better than statistically average number of goals out of the chances he gets. Nor that teams mostly don't hit that exact number.https://understat.com/player/8260
According to this Haaland has outperformed his XG for his entire career (apart from the start of this season). Examples like this are why I don't subscribe to the idea that xG is the best method of how good a team is because being clinical (like Haaland) is an actual skill that some teams (like Chelsea) lack. Teams often end the season with points totals very different from what their xG says they should be so having a good xG doesn't mean anything.
It's just one stat. It's no better a metric than possession or shots on target or, most importantly, the score.