[sammsky1]

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This has been a real issue all season long.

@TMDaines @Rawls

Can you please explain the 1st graphic and what xG score is to me?

 

[The Stain]

So with DDG and Ibra possibly leaving, we need an entire new squad in the summer, according to this thread. This place.

We have one specific problem. Just one problem that needs to be solved:

Manchester United’s 9 home draws in the league:
Shots - 172
Shots on target - 55
Goals - 6
3.48% shot conversion rate.

IF we just convert more chances at home, we will win the league. Thats all this squad needs to tweak.

In terms of team development and tactical identity, this is the best condition we have been in since SAF left. Maybe it shouldn't have taken as long but here we are. So long as Mourinho gets the attacking players he wants in the summer, Im convinced we'll convert our dominance into loads of points. We'll also hammer some unfortunate teams once in a while.

Whether we like it or not, need to forget about getting out of league this year, as this problem wont be solved with this squad, hope like crazy we win Europa, and genuinely gear up for full on assault next year.

Next year will be our year - and God save RAWK too.

Did i say those i commented on needs replacing? I simply commented on their performances in one game. It's as if one can't be allowed to be disappointed after yet another wank performance. Calm the hell down, buddy. I also like how you edited out the positive things i said.

 

[Rawls]

Can you explain the graphic and what the xG score is to me?

xG basically measures how much an average team would be expected to score across a match. In order to calculate it, you take the probability of scoring for each shot taken in the match and you add them all up together. For instance, if a team had two shots in a match and the expected value of a goal for each one was 0.2 and 0.3, then the xG total for the team would be 0.5. For further clarification, they calculate the expected value of a goal for each shot by quantifying from where exactly the shot was taken and other factors. For instance, imagine 10 players in 10 different matches take a shot from 6 yards out. If 8 of the players score from that exact position, then the xG when taking that shot is 0.8.

However, you have to be able to interpret the xG values. I one Team A has 1.4 and Team B has 1.1, do you say that Team A deserved to win. I generally interpret it as such:

• xG lead by 0.5 to 1.4 = 1 goal win
• xg lead by 1.5 to 2.4 = 2 goal win

and so on and so forth...

The last map shows the average position of each player and their most common passing combinations.

The first graphic shows the probability of each team's xG tally over time. However, do not confuse this with the win probability bar at the top of the graph. The person over the account says he does not base win probability solely on xG.

 

[dwd]

Put off a load of work to go to that at 3pm, on my own, and only just got back. This has been the worst season to have a season ticket since Fergie left, or at least it feels like it. It's like our home games follow the same recipe every single time. Frustrating.

 

[sammsky1]

xG basically measures how much an average team would be expected to score across a match. In order to calculate it, you take the probability of scoring for each shot taken in the match and you add them all up together. For instance, if a team had two shots in a match and the expected value of a goal for each one was 0.2 and 0.3, then the xG total for the team would be 0.5. For further clarification, they calculate the expected value of a goal for each shot by quantifying from where exactly the shot was taken and other factors. For instance, imagine 10 players in 10 different matches take a shot from 6 yards out. If 8 of the players score from that exact position, then the xG when taking that shot is 0.8.

However, you have to be able to interpret the xG values. I one Team A has 1.4 and Team B has 1.1, do you say that Team A deserved to win. I generally interpret it as such:

• xG lead by 0.5 to 1.4 = 1 goal win
• xg lead by 1.5 to 2.4 = 2 goal win

and so on and so forth...

The last map shows the average position of each player and their most common passing combinations.

The first graphic shows the probability of each team's xG tally over time. However, do not confuse this with the win probability bar at the top of the graph. The person over the account says he does not base win probability solely on xG.

Got it! Thanks for taking time to explain We had 9 chances inside the box tonight!!!

So in this case, 2.86 vs 0.63 means we should have won by about 2 clear goals: ie: our finishing is really pathetic. And this is statistical evidence of that.

 

[sammsky1]

Put off a load of work to go to that at 3pm, on my own, and only just got back. This has been the worst season to have a season ticket since Fergie left, or at least it feels like it. It's like our home games follow the same recipe every single time. Frustrating.

Even worse than LVGs 2nd season?! Wow.

 

[Rawls]

Got it! Thanks for taking time to explain We had 9 chances inside the box tonight!!!

So in this case, 2.86 vs 0.63 means we should have won by about 2 clear goals: ie: our finishing is really pathetic. And this is statistical evidence of that.

That is correct. I had another post on the previous page of the thread where I left links to more xG data. Apart from today, we dropped 14 points in the 7 matches I listed.

 

[sunama]

I dread to think what is going to happen against Chelsea, Spurs and City, I really do.

Chelsea is a home game - so a draw.
Spurs/City - away games, so we should be able to score goals and the results can go either way.

 

[dwd]

Even worse than LVGs 2nd season?! Wow.

In terms of frustration, yeah.

 

[sammsky1]

Another poor performance, only got going in the past 25 minutes. The lack of urgency was shocking. The last two games have a feel of a end of season match with nothing to play for. I don't think we deserve to get top 4 honestly. You can't draw as many times as we have and say we do. We need an edge and better quality on the pitch. Young shouldn't be starting for United anymore, his delivery is awful. Fellaini and Carrick are too slow as a pair. Jesse is a squad player and should be a sub and for certain games.

I want to see our best lineup again. I think Bailly, Valencia, Rojo, pogba, herrera, zlatan, miki, martial need to play. We need a mix of creativity and speed. Tempo,drive and most importantly, risk needs to be reintroduced. It's Europa league or bust now, we have messed up. No more he's got a good attitude, lesson time. It's a cohesive unit and spine that's needed of our best players. You can't expect miracles of players that don't have the ability. It's crunch time and we have to get our rhythm back soon or the season will be a disaster. Zlatan, herrera, pogba and miki are key going forward.

What happens when these 2 under perform, which is the only real consistency they have delivered this season?

Your post is abit unfair on Mourinho in that he has rotated only when absolutely required because of injury or suspension and so the players you list have often performed together and yet we have failed to win.

 

[Jaap]

Put off a load of work to go to that at 3pm, on my own, and only just got back. This has been the worst season to have a season ticket since Fergie left, or at least it feels like it. It's like our home games follow the same recipe every single time. Frustrating.

13/14?

 

[The Purley King]

Frustrating.....
Someone needs to explain what fellaini does because I'm not seeing it.
Mirrallas deserved a nasty injury for that despicable piece of gamesmanship. Shame it was lingard and not fellaini making that tackle. Perhaps fellaini could have Elbowed him somehow
Overall though passing was too slow and predictable the main positive was shaw making the difference. Mourinho has got him wrong imo. Just play him from the start ffs.

 

[dwd]

13/14?

That probably shades it yeah, mainly due to the chaos that ensued, and also the batterings we received from City and Liverpool. Even if we win our last 3 home games we will still only be 6 points better off than Moyes managed, and that was a really shit bar to set. It's not good enough at the end of the day. We should be doing so much better with the team that we have.

 

[SirScholes]

Ibrahimovic, Rooney, Martial, Mata, Rashford, Mkhitaryan not talented?

Zlatan and mata are the only ones who can say they have not had bad seasons out of that bunch

 

[SirScholes]

If you think our current attacking options are average, then you will think the same of whoever we buy after they fail to produce 12 months from now.

Not really seeing as how we don't actually have any players whose 1st position is Outwide

But sure let's persist with rashford who isn't ready lingard who isn't good enough. Maybe mata on the wing with his blistering pace, worked wonders this year

 

[GM K]

Positives : Bailly has a good game. We scored a goal and we didn't lose. Shaw came on and did well.

Negatives: we've regressed back to playing slow predictable football especially in our favoured formation which has been well and truly sussed out.

We don't create clear cut chances, the only chances we get are percentage balls into the box which drop luckily.

Pogba came on and did a couple of nice passes but his attempts to beat multiple players in dodgy positions kept leading to us losing the ball.

Rashford is totally wasted on the left.

We're shite.

Just wondering. Are we not excusing Rashford too much? Yeah he's just 19 or so and had his debut last season but isn't it time to start assessing him like any other team member?

First of all, I have my doubts about Rashford being a number nine. He just doesn't possess that body strength modern day number nine's need. He gets easily knocked off the ball time and time again. I think he is better as a wide player who cuts in to cause havoc. I will never trade Rashford for Ibra as striker right now. Maybe when Ibra actually gets old. Secondly, what does where you play have to do with you taking your chances? It will be interesting to see a fact sheet on United players' appearances. Rashford must have played more than most in that squad this season and he has missed some serious sitters.

I don't think Rashford has been wasted, I think he has wasted his opportunities this season. Nevertheless, I'm convinced he will be a much better player next season

 

[Red Dreams]

We will be very busy this summer.

 

[ChichaKagawa]

The phrase "and it's 1:1 at Old Trafford" gives me PTSD

The state of our club right now man.



Need Mata back.

 

[horsechoker]

 

[Pscholes18]

.....and I agree with everything he said.

 

[sammsky1]

@dwd is it you?

think FullTimeDevils might have some ArsenalFanTV envy as this chap was abit OTT!

 

[Twisted Nerve]

Players who raise their game like that against certain teams when most of the time they are shit, are just cheating the club and their fans. Teams have been doing it all season, then they go and get their asses handed to them by another shower of shite right after.

 

[Womp]

Agree with everything he said

 

[noodlehair]

That's three of our last four games now where Mourinho's management of the game has been, well, really really crap.

I mean fair enough if you want to drop important players...but if you do that, and your line up has room for Lingard, Fellaini, and Carrick, then if your team don't win, it's 100% YOUR fault.

I also don't understand the point in playing Carrick and Fellaini together, if every time the opposition get the ball, they can just counter attack at will anyway.

I mean what were our tactics in this game? Half the team didn't seem to know where they were playing and literally every time Everton got the ball, they could just kick it literally anywhere up the pitch and Lukaku was one v one with the last defender.

Just not nnearly good enough. You don't give your team a chance in games if you handicap them like that.

 

[mu4c_20le]

I thought Lingard was one of our best players in the first half, but I agree with him about the bottling. Heads were dropping near the end and we were very lucky to rescue a point.

 

[Giggs86]

Half-assed blind imbecile of a linesman.

The cnuts who get their asses served by Liverpool time after time raise their game as per usual while Jagielka and some unknown keeper turn into prime Maldini and Buffon.

We miss every possible chance to score.

Pogba is a luxury player, nowhere near to be a game changer. No influence whatsoever.

Fellaini is a decent player but he is NOT United quality.

The league campaign is all but over. Throw everything at the Europa League and win the bastard ticket to the CL to salvage something from this season.

 

[Eddy_JukeZ]

That's three of our last four games now where Mourinho's management of the game has been, well, really really crap.

I mean fair enough if you want to drop important players...but if you do that, and your line up has room for Lingard, Fellaini, and Carrick, then if your team don't win, it's 100% YOUR fault.

I also don't understand the point in playing Carrick and Fellaini together, if every time the opposition get the ball, they can just counter attack at will anyway.

I mean what were our tactics in this game? Half the team didn't seem to know where they were playing and literally every time Everton got the ball, they could just kick it literally anywhere up the pitch and Lukaku was one v one with the last defender.

Just not nnearly good enough. You don't give your team a chance in games if you handicap them like that.

There's no point playing either of them(Carrick/Fellaini) really.

 

[noodlehair]

Players who raise their game like that against certain teams when most of the time they are shit, are just cheating the club and their fans. Teams have been doing it all season, then they go and get their asses handed to them by another shower of shite right after.

I didn't think they were any better than aginst Liverpool. We gave them countless, glaring openings on the break and they kept fecking them up because Lukaku appears to be blind.

Every time the ball went into their box they were disorganised and panicky.

We dicked around with our line up, and our players dicked around with the ball too much. Loads of effort but very little cohesion to go with it. I think it's the most frustrating game this season. We looked more like we were playing against ourselves than against the opposition.

Whre were Lingard, Fellaini, Carrick and Herrera playing all night? Everton would get the ball and this mob would be nowhere to be seen. We'd get the ball and they'd just croop up all over the shop. There were numerous times we were attacking in the first half and our ENTIRE team was on the left hand side of the pitch. Why?

 

[Sereques]

To get Top 4, we have to beat Spurs, Chavs, City and Arse. I don't see how that will be possible. Time to put all eggs in Europa League and win it in Zlatan's homeland.

 

[Dinghy]

Impressive how he manages to go on a rant like that without saying one bad word about the man who's picking these players.

 

[Nakhon Phanom]

A very disjointed performance tonight but we deserved at least a draw on chances created.Ibrahimovic had a goal wrongly disallowed for offside,Herrera and Pogba hit the bar and Robles made a couple of good saves from Blind and Herrera.
But where (or why) was Fellaini playing.....Pogba and Mkhitarayan continue to be frustratingly inconsistent.
On the plus side,Bailly had an excellent game,Ibrahimovic at least provides a goal threat and I thought Luke Shaw did OK when he came on as sub.
However 9 home draws tells its own story.Cant see us making the top 4 really.Europa League looks the best bet and that wont be easy the way we are playing.

 

[Mani]

We are too slow and predictable in the final third and narrow with our play most of the times not to mention the lack of movement and poor crosses,how did we manage to find out each cross intercepted by Everton defenders? Some of the low crosses just need an tap in and we still fail to do it,we miss J.Hernandez in the box.

 

[GM K]

This team is going places.The potential is so obvious.

 

[2 man midfield]

You can't what?

Do these undeserved draws.

 

[LeftyBlaster]

We could increase our revenue with some really great art pieces at the rate we're drawing. Sorry.

 

[roonster09]

Can't believe we didn't come out with 3 points. Story of our season and summed up by Pogba hitting the bar.

 

[manutd7]

Too many crosses and Fellaini should have been one of the first off the pitch.

Happy with our defensive shape when we were chasing the game. Overall I think our defense looked good, except for the 2 or so instances between De Gea and Rojo.

Offensive wise I thought Lingard looked good, but other than that (possibly Carrick as well) were not that great. Rashford looked isolated, Zlatan looked a bit slow and not entirely mobile throughout the game. Herrera played a usual Herrera game.

Happy with Shaw being back, but we werent good enough today and definitely arent playing like a top 4 team at the moment. We just cant seem to have a run of games where our entire 11 are on the same page and working together to get a result, but I guess the injuries/suspensions cant help

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

So with DDG and Ibra possibly leaving, we need an entire new squad in the summer, according to this thread. This place.

We have one specific problem. Just one problem that needs to be solved:

Manchester United’s 9 home draws in the league:
Shots - 172
Shots on target - 55
Goals - 6
3.48% shot conversion rate.

IF we just convert more chances at home, we will win the league. Thats all this squad needs to tweak.

In terms of team development and tactical identity, this is the best condition we have been in since SAF left. Maybe it shouldn't have taken as long but here we are. So long as Mourinho gets the attacking players he wants in the summer, Im convinced we'll convert our dominance into loads of points. We'll also hammer some unfortunate teams once in a while.

Whether we like it or not, need to forget about getting out of league this year, as this problem wont be solved with this squad, hope like crazy we win Europa, and genuinely gear up for full on assault next year.

Next year will be our year - and God save RAWK too.

4 new wingers doesn't translate to a new squad. It translates to 4 new wingers. We consistently can't stretch teams till they crack. It contributes to our poor conversion rate.

 

[Lawman]

If you start a game with average players like Young, Rojo, Blind, Fellaini and Lingard. Are we that shocked when we get average team performances?

 

[darko]

So with DDG and Ibra possibly leaving, we need an entire new squad in the summer, according to this thread. This place.

We have one specific problem. Just one problem that needs to be solved:

Manchester United’s 9 home draws in the league:
Shots - 172
Shots on target - 55
Goals - 6
3.48% shot conversion rate.

IF we just convert more chances at home, we will win the league. Thats all this squad needs to tweak.

In terms of team development and tactical identity, this is the best condition we have been in since SAF left. Maybe it shouldn't have taken as long but here we are. So long as Mourinho gets the attacking players he wants in the summer, Im convinced we'll convert our dominance into loads of points. We'll also hammer some unfortunate teams once in a while.

Whether we like it or not, need to forget about getting out of league this year, as this problem wont be solved with this squad, hope like crazy we win Europa, and genuinely gear up for full on assault next year.

Next year will be our year - and God save RAWK too.

Don't talk sensible, mate. That won't get you any place here.

It's always an all or nothing deal with the majority of the fans.