2018 US Elections

Carolina Red

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How on earth can you govern in constant election mode?
It's a double edged sword.

Representatives are always concerned about running for re-election, but at the same time, they're also always concerned about doing things their constituents like... because they're up for re-election so often.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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The GOP made a big pickup in the 2014 House elections with almost a 6% margin of victory in the popular vote. They didn't need a big margin of victory in 2016 to hold the House, and actually lost 6 seats with only a 1.1% margin of victory in the popular vote... they just had a big lead to begin with from the 2014 results.
A 9 point lead should be a 60+ seats pick up. And Dems won't win with the same margin every 2 years.

What about the dreaded executive orders? Can the house do anything about those?
Court challenge, lawsuit.
 

Sandyman

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Are you assuming that the margin of victory is rather evenly distributed across congressional districts?

Because when it isn't, it doesn't work out that way.
But surely, gerrymandered districts play a big role in proportion of votes not relating to number of pickups right?
 

Drifter

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Mississippi Senate special election will go to run-off as none of the candidates has met the required threshold to win the race.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Watch out for that wave everyone

A wave doesn't mean you win big everywhere and sweep everything, it means you win big where you are supposed to win by a little and a bunch of close ones ended up in your favour.

Are you assuming that the margin of victory is rather evenly distributed across congressional districts?

Because when it isn't, it doesn't work out that way.
I'm not assuming that. Historically, that however has been the case that 8-9-10 pts = upward of 60+ pick ups.

You can call it whatever you like, gerrymandering, realignment of the electorate, but the fact that the infrastructure are so badly in favour of one party compared to the other isn't how a democracy normally function.
 

Carolina Red

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But surely, gerrymandered districts play a big role in proportion of votes not relating to number of pickups right?
@InfiniteBoredom
They definitely do, but so does the distribution of the popular vote. Look at the popular vote that Hillary got, then look how much of it came from 2 states.

Speaking of gerrymandering... that's why the Democrat pickups in governor races are so important. They can go to work on fixing those districts.
 

Sandyman

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They definitely do, but so does the distribution of the popular vote. Look at the popular vote that Hillary got, then look how much of it came from 2 states.

Speaking of gerrymandering... that's why the Democrat pickups in governor races are so important. They can go to work on fixing those districts.
Yeah makes sense I guess.
That is why FL hurts so much. Fecking DeSantis! They did pick up other Gov seats though, so overall a good night for Dems as expected.
 

Carolina Red

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Yeah makes sense I guess.
That is why FL hurts so much. Fecking DeSantis! They did pick up other Gov seats though, so overall a good night for Dems as expected.
Kansas is a big deal. Smack in the middle of "middle America". It has gone from a 30 point margin of victory in the 2010 governor's race, to 3 points in 2014, to a Democrat winning this year.

Also, the point currently being made on CNN about the suburbs going blue is a big deal. The 'burbs are usually a bastion of the establishment GOP.
 

Carolina Red

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I love how conservatives act like no president has ever been scrutinized by the media before...

Fox News called Obama a Kenyan Muslim for 8 years ffs
 

Sandyman

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Kansas is a big deal. Smack in the middle of "middle America". It has gone from a 30 point margin of victory in the 2010 governor's race, to 3 points in 2014, to a Democrat winning this year.

Also, the point currently being made on CNN about the suburbs going blue is a big deal. The 'burbs are usually a bastion of the establishment GOP.
Yeah saw that too. Hopefully, the trend continues that way in the future.
 

alsabi

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So 538 projecting a three-seat gain for Republicans in the Senate to make it 54-46. Judicial appointments factory for the next two years, then. EDIT: Mississippi has gone to a run-off, however, so we'll see.
 

Redplane

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Oh barf.. Kelly Anne Conway on ABC boasting about how Trump made the difference in the ones he supported while at the same time saying he is willing to work with the Dems and has proven he is willing to do it.
 

Carolina Red

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Gavin Newsom continues his rise to national prominence in the Democratic Party.

Also a couple of tight gubernatorial races in Wisconsin and Iowa right now with about 3/4 of the vote counted.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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OH and FL seem out of reach for 2020. Dems electoral maths got a lot tougher on that front. They are caught between increasingly red previous battlegrounds like Missouri, Indiana-> now OH and FL and previous blood red GOP strongholds like GA, AZ, TX getting bluer but not gonna flip for another 3-4 cycles.

Basically, what I'm saying is, get down on your knees and scream for Sherrod Brown to run.
 

Sandyman

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It ll be very interesting to see what the economy is going to do the next 2 years and who is best able to blame the other side for it when/if it goes south.
That will be the Republicans. Dems have nothing on them when it comes to blame game. The Dems will be looking for a way to work together and move forward while Trump will just say Dems are not letting him do anything.