In a legislative sense, yes it is damaging as the Dems will just block everything in the House. Trump can still make whichever appointments he wants so long as the Republican controlled Senate backs him. Also chances of him being impeached are very low as the Senate has the deciding vote.
2018 US Elections
- Thread starter Red Dreams
- Start date
It’s a good night. Not as good as could’ve possibly been, but good.
Gaining control of House of Representatives = gaining oversight power over the administration, they can set up investigatory committees, subpoena documents/witnesses, protect Mueller and his team (reinstate him in case the FBI director fired him). Above all, they hold the power of the purse. No budget proposal by the White House (including changes to the current healthcare system) can pass without the House’s approval. So, short term gains. No more tax cuts, no more healthcare repeal, more investigations.
Now, long term pains. They lost 3, maybe even 4 seats in the Senate. This is in line with expectations, perhaps a little worse off, but it’s still a loss. All this means Republicans are free for the next two years to jam-pack the federal courts with rightwing judges in their 40/50s for lifetime appointments. They will rule in favour of big corporations, destroying climate and safety standards regulations, reject voting rights lawsuits, union brokering power, arbitration etc... these will have an impact for decades and can’t be undone by the next Democratic president.
I also have a few thoughts on what it means for 2020, will copy paste it in the edit.
Edit:
It’s good news for Trump in the sense that he’s holding strong in 2 very valuable battlegrounds (OH+FL) which allows him to divert all his time and resources into the Midwest (all of which his number is underwater, but not by much, 46/48%). The Dems still have a clear path to the presidency (every traditional strongholds + NV which they have won for 3 cycles in a row and now have the governor and both senators as well as the legislation + the 3 Midwest states that went Dems every time 6 cycles in a row until 2016, and have now flipped back this mid term - gov in MI, WI, PA, majority of congressional districts), however, they have basically no margin or error to play around with and any slip up = 4 more years.
That’s why it’s imperative that the 2020 primary is not divisive and they nominate someone with appeal to the Midwest. None of Cory Booker or Harris or Warren can cut the mustard, and possibly Biden. Bernie is strong here but there might be establishment remnants that is dead set against him who can swing the result. Basically cut a deal to all get behind him or someone like Sherrod Brown.
On the other hand, maybe Amendment 4 will prove pivotal and 1.5m ex-felons will come up big for Dems. I’m not counting on it with De Santis being governor, however.
I’m just amazed, with all that’s been said and done by Trump over the last two years, that Americans didn’t collectively want to say “feck you”. I might be reading it all wrong, but it to me it sounds like it was the smallest possible win for the dems?
I defer to the Americans in here, and those more politically informed than I am. But it looks to me like the overall vote shows a couple of key things. The GOP is the party of older white males. The Dems got the youth vote out. Women are mobilising, and none of the above are good news for Trump 2020.
Yes, the Dems now have a new set of issues. They need to box clever. They need to unify an increasingly diverse base. Yes, Trump motivates his base and gets them to the polls. Yes, he will be formidable in two years time (given he is still there).
Last night was not a thumping for Trump, no. More like losing 3-2 away. But if the blues get behind a decent and charismatic opponent, with broad appeal, he is eminently beatable.
Considering the shame of the last 2 years, its a pathetic win. The sad thing is though that the Dems didn't do a massive amount wrong. It seems Americans actually approve of Trump. Dark times.
All things considered, it was decent. Not a resounding success but not a failure either.
They've gained somewhere between 35-40 seats in the House, with most of those new Reps being women. They've closed the gap in key states that were previously thought of as Republican strongholds. Record voter turnout and registration for mid-terms should continue for 2020, and the popular vote margin has increased significantly.
This is all with clear voter suppression and decades of gerrymandering in favour of the repubs.
Winning the Senate was always going to be unlikely.
They need to keep the momentum and get behind a worthy candidate.
Bear in mind that the Senate was never really on. There’s lots to celebrate. Flipping the House - by 30+ seats - is a big win for the Dems no matter how you spin it. Lots of people voted that didn’t before. Record turnout for mid terms (not sure I’m right here?)... A record number of women elected. Native Americans elected for the first time, significant wins in the governor races....
Ah - just as @villain posts a clearer and better informed analysis... cheers, V
Ah - just as @villain posts a clearer and better informed analysis... cheers, V
Exactly. American voters feck up once, shame on you. feck up twice after hindsight, you deserve all that's coming to you.
I know we're affected too.
They definitely don't have two years. The primaries will start around, what, the start of 2020? They need to sort their shit out and get behind one candidate that can bring the party together and that needs to be done within about a year.
They won't though. They'll go into the primaries with a dozen candidates battling and dividing the party and then wonder what goes wrong.
But it really wasn't at all was it? He lost the House and gained a few Senate seats. Ultimately turnout was high with all demographics except old white men voting for the Dems. Independents switched to the Dems in high numbers and Republicans were pushed hard in many close races with voter suppression and gerrymandering being the difference in a few states too.
Admittedly it wasn't a runaway success for the Dems, but it sure wasn't a piece of shit night like you said. A piece of shit night would have been not regaining the House and losing seats In both races.
So bottom line, in layman's terms:
A: yay
B: boo
?
A: yay
B: boo
?
Yep I agree with that, they rely on the assurance that most Dems will vote based on policies alone, regardless of who the leader is. It's arrogant and lazy.
For me Yay. A good night for the Dems.
We gotta talk about this - white women & latino men need to sort their shit out. I don't think white men ever will.
I'm with Paul Mason on this..
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...eing-born-and-democratic-left-are-leading-way
"Last night was belated evidence that the “rising American majority” thesis of pollster Stan Greenberg is basically correct. Educated people, single women, ethnic minorities and millennials will soon, together, form an unbeatable demographic majority. Sure, there are Trump supporters among all these groups, but what holds most of them to the President are varieties of insecurity, which intelligent politics and a generation of honest, dedicated politicians can address"
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/...eing-born-and-democratic-left-are-leading-way
"Last night was belated evidence that the “rising American majority” thesis of pollster Stan Greenberg is basically correct. Educated people, single women, ethnic minorities and millennials will soon, together, form an unbeatable demographic majority. Sure, there are Trump supporters among all these groups, but what holds most of them to the President are varieties of insecurity, which intelligent politics and a generation of honest, dedicated politicians can address"
If they hadn't won the house with the polling they had and after the last 2 years, they may as well have just given up. Last night felt like 2016 all over again. Instead of the Dems having the worst presidential nominee in history to campaign against, they had the worst president in history with 2 years of actual concrete evidence of how fecking vile and despicable he actually is. And a Republican party whose senate leader had publicly stated just weeks ago that they intended to slash Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security to pay for their billionaires tax cut. And despite all that, despite the violence and bombs sent to top Democrats, despite the endless attacks on the press and the rampant corruption in the administration, the Dems did 'just enough'.
I have no idea how any Democrat or liberal came away from last night anything other than completely dispirited and depressed.
Slightly worse than how it was predicted. The are gaining 35 seats in the house, the main predictions were 35-40 seats, and losing 3 or 4 seats in the senate, while it was expected to lose 1.
So, the house around how it was expected, while the senate a bit worse.
A lot of people are in the gloom and doom mode, and saying that they lost but that is a misunderstanding in two ways:
1) The gerrymandering ensures that they cannot win the house in a big manner (like Republicans did in 2010 when they flipped 60 seats). In order to just win a majority (1 more seat than Republicans), they need to win nation-wise around 6% more than Republicans (assuming no third parties, a 53-47% result gives them a single extra seat more than Republicans). They won nation wise with around 9 percentage advantage, which is quite significant (Hillary won with around 2-3% or so, if she had won with 9% then she would have been president).
2) Most of the senate seats which were for election were hold by Democrats. They hold serve in 26 seats (technically 24, but there was Bernie and the other independent who caucus with them) while Republicans were defending only 9 seats. The net effect looks that they will lose around 3, maybe 4 seats, which from an another point of view means that they won 22 or 23 out of 35 races (of course, it is pointless to say this cause most of races were on Democratic states). The next election for senate is more balanced, and then in 2022 Republicans will defend most of their seats (if I am not mistaken). The problem on senate was 2014 and 2016 election, yesterday it was fine. On a 538 article, they explained that in a scenario like yesterday election, on average you should expect them to lose 7 seats in senate, so all things considering they did better than average. Of course, we hoped for more, for them to not lose more than one seat.
Care to explain how he's holding strong in OH & FL when the Dem candidate won the senate seat by 6% and lost the FL seat by about 1%?
The figures seem to indicate the Dems won those 3 states (yes, those 80,000 votes or so) by much bigger margins.
Yeah, it seems underwhelming and, frankly, disappointing. Trump’s basically been told that he’s doing okay.
There was a poster earlier that asked why people from other countries cared about US midterms, and it’s because the US used to be unifier for the Western world, but with Trump and his sycophants in the White House, and the American people seemingly accepting their rhetoric and behavior as evident by yesterdays elections, that position is gravely endangered and instead being replaced by a state that fewer and fewer Western Europeans (just to name some) can relate to.
In a nation where 'Socialist' translates as 'Satanist', last night was a triumph.
Also, fun fact (which as usual will be protested by Eboue and co.):
McSally is leading Arizona race with less than 13000 votes difference with less than 35k votes remaining to be count. Green's candidate Angela Green has won over 38k votes.
Something about McSally:
McSally is leading Arizona race with less than 13000 votes difference with less than 35k votes remaining to be count. Green's candidate Angela Green has won over 38k votes.
Something about McSally:
Green Party should die. But not before fecking itself.
My read too. Feels like some Dems are ignoring this and pretending to be over the moon. Was a slim win and a sign that all is not alright....
The problem is that Trump understands and plays into the tribalism of politics, and calls it patriotism - that speaks to a lot of people.
Whereas the Dems still think the electorate are educated enough to only rely on policies & play fair - it's stupid.
Now they have the House they need to be relentless in their pursuit of the truth on Trump, and not let up. Taxes, investigations, subpoenas everybody needs to see it all.
They can't be nice and impartial and 'willing to work with the other side'
Whereas the Dems still think the electorate are educated enough to only rely on policies & play fair - it's stupid.
Now they have the House they need to be relentless in their pursuit of the truth on Trump, and not let up. Taxes, investigations, subpoenas everybody needs to see it all.
They can't be nice and impartial and 'willing to work with the other side'
Well, majority of white folk are still voting for Trump so of course he has the approval of a huge chunk of America. I'm not surprised really. If he's been elected I don't expect the entire country to suddenly despise him.
Florida have shown us the line is still way off in the distance in terms of what they are prepared to put up with before they fold.
2 years of Republicans moaning they can't get anything done because of those pesky Dems running the house should be enough for any loses today to be turned into resounding wins come 2020
2 years of Republicans moaning they can't get anything done because of those pesky Dems running the house should be enough for any loses today to be turned into resounding wins come 2020
Why is Florida such a red state btw? I thought it was supposed a fairly open/free spirited state?Florida have shown us the line is still way off in the distance in terms of what they are prepared to put up with before they fold.
2 years of Republicans moaning they can't get anything done because of those pesky Dems running the house should be enough for any loses today to be turned into resounding wins come 2020
While I completely agree, this will also help vindicate Trump and his fans that there's a witch hunt against him and the corrupt elite are hellbent on destroying his God given mission to MAGA.
I don't see how the US will ever become a unified country again. They're so polarized they might as well be split in two.
I think your missing an important part of this, the actual voting public. They are speaking and maybe you aren't listening...
Clearly there is progress, but there's also a large amount that are against that progress.
They gotta do it tho. The guy is a fraud, any unwillingness to expose that is negligent.
Those MAGA cnuts that won't see sense? Feck them, they never will. At some point you gotta be forceful or you'll never get what you want... The republicans fully understand this and have done for a while.
We have to accept that Trump fans will feel that way regardless of what the Dems do. They're ignorant, entitled, selfish hypocrites - and that's being kind.
Anything the Dems do to better their position will anger Trump fans.
The US was never unified, and has always been polarised.
These people have just let their disguises slip because Trump is the living embodiment of everything they are and want to be - privileged, rich, white & arrogant - therefore to them, they're literally seeing a superhero. Feck them.
So you have no opinions on anything that happens outside of the US?
How does the fact that we have knobs in power here in Australia have any bearing on whether I can discuss the political happenings in other countries? Does this somehow mean I'm excluded from participating in this or these discussions?
See I really can’t rally behind this sentiment.
The Greens shouldn’t be scolded for choosing to exercise their democratic right to put forward candidates. Just as it’s every voters right to pick their candidate. That’s how democracy works.
If anything the blame lies solely with the Dems for failing to galvanise their base. The trouble is the Dems are plagued by idiots like Perez at the helm who double down on their stances despite it bearing no fruit (definition of insanity anyone?). So really the Dems should read between the lines and take this as a cue to actually put forward genuinely progressive tickets. If they fail to do so then Trump will win in 2020 and again the Dems will have no one to blame but themselves.
Based on last nights results, Trump is isn't in a good state for 2020. If he can't hold on to Pennsylvania and one other state in the midwest then I can't see his path to 270. I would already give him Florida.
I think people are seriously underestimating how hard it is for Democrats to do well.
They look to have taken the house with over 9% more votes. In any 2 party system that's amazing.
The Senate was impossible given the seats available.
I'm disappointed by Florida, Georgia and Texas but it's still a good night.
They look to have taken the house with over 9% more votes. In any 2 party system that's amazing.
The Senate was impossible given the seats available.
I'm disappointed by Florida, Georgia and Texas but it's still a good night.
The power cables are for the voting machines not the voters you idiots. I assume each polling place needs to have some level of basic supplies, power cables may be one of them.He really thought it would be feasible that every voter would be expected to show up with fecking power cords to plug into the machine just to cast their vote.
I don’t think I’ve ever read something so ridiculous
Cordray lost the OH Governor race, most of the Congressional races went red, Franklin County (where Trump won big) edged ahead of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland, Dem stronghold) in vote share. That's a state trending red. The face that Sherrod Brown won his re-election with ease is a testament to his strength as a candidate.Care to explain how he's holding strong in OH & FL when the Dem candidate won the senate seat by 6% and lost the FL seat by about 1%?
Neither Scott nor De Santis were expected to win coming into yesterday. Polls were uniformly off by 3 pts and in a high turnout year, the panhandle and South Florida continued with the exurban trend and went out to vote in exceptional number for the Trump candidate. Now they have uniformed control with no oversight of the state yet again and the impact of Amendment 4 will be hard to be factored in.
Which 3 states do you mean? I clearly stated MI, WI and PA swung back big time for the Dem. However Trump's number isn't exactly terrible in those states and it's entirely possible for an uninspiring Democratic candidate to slip up.
That's true I suppose.
To be fair to Trump though, I'd say he's more orange than white.
Been discussed to death, but still my opinion is that by spoiling the left vote, they ensure Republican victories. Their only relevance comes into close competitions, and it always helps Republicans. While their policies don't align with Dems, Dems policies are much closer to their policies than Republican policies which exactly are the opposite of what Green party wants. Of course, there is also the fact that Jill Stein is a moron.
So, it would be better if they fight from within (like what Bernie does) rather than ensuring a climate change denier like Marta McSally becomes a senator.
Same thing can be said for the other side. Be a spoiler, or be Rand Paul and become relevant, while advocating your policies.
Edit: Btw, there is also the idiocy of Green having withdrawn from race last week, but too late for that, the damage (early voting) was already done.