Adisa
likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt
Another thing is how can a team outperform their expected goals? If you score a goal, it means it's a chance. It's not like the other team is putting the ball in the net for you.
It represents the probability of a shot being a goal on average.Another thing is how can a team outperform their expected goals? If you score a goal, it means it's a chance. It's not like the other team is putting the ball in the net for you.
Well explained. I guess the point would be can you depend on these kind of clinical finishes (a product of your quality, yes) or would you regress because you are not creating enough clear cut (clearer cut) chances (which would also be a product of your quality)The thing behind xG is the whole database is based on all players and their chances. There is a lot of bad players in there. We have over average players that, on average, will perform better than most players. Ie DDG will save more ‘expected goals’ than any other keeper. Pogba, martial and rashford will score 0.2 xGs more than any other player. Getting those boys in form is the reason we are points over expected goals. That’s the way it should be if you want to be above the pack.
If that’s still hard to understand: take pogba’s goal this weekend. What was the xG on that chance? Pogba scored it because of his quality. We are more often than not going to score from lower xG chances like that and that means we are most likely going to get more points out of lesser chances. We are clinical.
But when a player faces de Gea, difficult chance becomes non-existent, and many easy chances become difficult ones. Does this xGoal account for de Gea ability?It's supposed to be the difficulty of a chance, and whether you've scored it or not.
Yeah bottom line is football isn't great for analytics. And I love using data when analyzing other sports, but there are too many variables to where you can use numbers to accurately predict future performance with what we have available today.I hate how xG is used by some people to anaylse a single chance or a single game. It's useless at doing this. A shot from 6 yards, with a players strong foot and only the keeper to beat might have a declared xG of 0.5, but this 0.5 is only an average of lots of shots that mostly weren't actual 0.5 xG chances. Some would be 0.1, some would be 0.5, some would be 0.9.
Isn't the 0.5 based on being in that same position on the strong foot? So 50% of chances will be missed/scored. The 0.1s will be in a worse position.I hate how xG is used by some people to anaylse a single chance or a single game. It's useless at doing this. A shot from 6 yards, with a players strong foot and only the keeper to beat might have a declared xG of 0.5, but this 0.5 is only an average of lots of shots that mostly weren't actual 0.5 xG chances. Some would be 0.1, some would be 0.5, some would be 0.9.
This cant be right, according to this we average more shots on goal pr gameThis graph here shows that we have been consistently overperforming for the last 2 months. The number of goals scored doesn't correspond to expected goals. Something to keep in mind.Our squad still needs work.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I had a look at our xG on understated.com/team/Manchester_United/2018 and Barring Spurs, Leicester, and Fulham (which we clearly won at a canter) we didn't have a worse xG.This graph here shows that we have been consistently overperforming for the last 2 months. The number of goals scored doesn't correspond to expected goals. Something to keep in mind.Our squad still needs work.
Well, if they analyse 10,000 "similar" shots, and the average of all these produced the 0.5 xG, people mistakenly interpret it as every "similar" shot from there should be a 50/50 chance.Isn't the 0.5 based on being in that same position on the strong foot? So 50% of chances will be missed/scored. The 0.1s will be in a worse position.
If it was the other way round and we had missed the early chances for Shurrle and Mitrovic we would be saying we should have done better.
We clearly have a weakness in defence and have done all season. It should be where our resources mainly go in the summer.
AgreeHe’ll learn. But Alexis and Mata our wide agaisnt a fast countering team as PSG are set up tonight is a big big mistake. Yes the subs had to be made, but clear as day Young and Shaw needed support - Alexis and Shaw can’t offer that.
It is not a mistake, it is our lack of depth, we have no natural wingers in our squad.He’ll learn. But Alexis and Mata our wide agaisnt a fast countering team as PSG are set up tonight is a big big mistake. Yes the subs had to be made, but clear as day Young and Shaw needed support - Alexis and Shaw can’t offer that.
Not really, whoever said we were better than PSG? Anyone?Bit of a reality check of how far off the top sides we really are tonight.
But what else can he do? Our strength in depth is piss poor. Our options are Sanchez, Lukaku, and Mata. Whoever he brings on is going to be next to useless against PSGHe’ll learn. But Alexis and Mata our wide agaisnt a fast countering team as PSG are set up tonight is a big big mistake. Yes the subs had to be made, but clear as day Young and Shaw needed support - Alexis and Shaw can’t offer that.
It’s his mistake to put Mata our wide at any stage. We all know Matas weakness and that is exposed greatly here. It’s a bad call by him, could have picked Rom and ask Rash to fill in our wide if Rom didn’t track back. A needs must.It is not a mistake, it is our lack of depth, we have no natural wingers in our squad.
Did you see the pre-match bullishness? People were predicting routs!Not really, whoever said we were better than PSG? Anyone?
Yes, but Mata on instead of Lukaku is a major tactical blunder for sure.Not going to blame him he can only do so much with the players at his disposal
We had a decent top 4 league team but quality wise we’re miles off in the champions league.
He can bring on Fred and push Pog even further up. Bring on Rom and ask Rash to do us a favor out wide. Mata offers zero out wide attacking or defending - pointless against the pace of PSGBut what else can he do? Our strength in depth is piss poor. Our options are Sanchez, Lukaku, and Mata. Whoever he brings on is going to be next to useless against PSG
This!But what else can he do? Our strength in depth is piss poor. Our options are Sanchez, Lukaku, and Mata. Whoever he brings on is going to be next to useless against PSG
I feel that’s more reflective about the general mood of the team and enjoying the football right now rather than people truly thinking we were going to thrash them.Did you see the pre-match bullishness? People were predicting routs!
Hell, a solid 1/4 people who filled in the score predictor on here thought we'd score at least 3 tonight.
Well yes, I suppose you could call this reminder of what the level is something like a reality check...I feel that’s more reflective about the general mood of the team and enjoying the football right now rather than problem truly thinking we were going to thrash them.