Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

Adebesi

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I've been in the hills all day but if I've understood it right and the EU have refused an extension then I have a different take on it from most people. I think May will be quite happy, she's been steadily closing off all avenues and arguments until her final vote on her deal at the last minute when the only options left will be her deal or no deal. And I think she'll get it.

Yeah, I'm aware of Bercow's opinion, but I think she'll get round that, with an act if necessary.
Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.
 

Fluctuation0161

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Of course there is. It was Tory government with a Tory PM. That's fairly sufficient, do you expect a sudden in-depth understanding of the issues by the public ?
Also, the Tory government called the referendum, failed to plan for leave, left everything until last few weeks having 2 years to plan after the vote, then imploded.
 

The Firestarter

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Also, the Tory government called the referendum, failed to plan for leave, left everything until last few weeks having 2 years to plan after the vote, then imploded.
That being said, Corbyn looks like exactly the person to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
 

711

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They'll probably give a short extension if the UK agree the deal.
The vote will probably happen for the third time , somehow or other.
But, guess what, it'll be voted down again and ERG will get what they want , probably with Labour's help.
I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?
 

Infra-red

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Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.
Almost certainly the case. The EU and TM have exactly the same end goal - getting the WA through Parliament.

This is the final roll of the dice.
 

MadMike

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" ...was a bad deal" etc..
When it comes to politics and the average voter, everything is approached with a bit of bias and lack of in-depth analysis.

It's as easy for a Tory supporter to blame it on Labour for not voting the deal and wanting unicorns, as is for a Labour voter to blame it on Tory incompetence and a bad deal put on the table. It depends on which side you're sitting.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?
Probably, has to be confirmed.

Just saw this:

France, Spain and Belgium are ready to veto a Brexit extension, the Press Association understands. The PA report goes on:

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.
 

JPRouve

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I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?
No, Tusk said that he was favorable to it under certain conditions. EU leaders will talk about it tomorrow.
 

11101

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Not inconceivable that she even asked them for this response, to scare the shit out of MPs into accepting the deal on offer.
Rumours in Italy are that the UK government has asked the Italian government to reject an extension.
 

Infra-red

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I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?
If, and only if, a deal is agreed.

Judging by what Tusk did not say, however, this likely only applies to a short extension.

A long extension is presumably still possible without the WA passing through Parliament (but would be contingent on a GE/2nd Ref being agreed by Parliament before March 29th instead).
 

Pexbo

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Rumours in Italy are that the UK government has asked the Italian government to reject an extension.
Those rumours have probably come about from that cnut Aaron Banks lobbying the deputy PM to veto an extension.
 

711

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Probably, has to be confirmed.

Just saw this:

France, Spain and Belgium are ready to veto a Brexit extension, the Press Association understands. The PA report goes on:

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.
Isn't that more or less what Tusk has said, they will oppose an extension unless the deal's agreed?
 

711

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If, and only if, a deal is agreed.

Judging by what Tusk did not say, however, this likely only applies to a short extension.

A long extension is presumably still possible without the WA passing through Parliament (but would be contingent on a GE/2nd Ref being agreed by Parliament before March 29th instead).
Which is what I said isn't it? I'm not getting why you and Paul keep repeating back to me what I've said. I suppose I must have worded it badly.
 

Adebesi

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For all the many, many criticisms you can legitimately throw at May, you have to admire the size of her balls.

Though then you remember that if it all goes wrong, the little people suffer and she retires into obscurity to live out her days in comfort, her wealth presumably squirreled away offshore in various currencies. Its actually everyone else's future she is playing chicken with, not her own.

Still. Balls.
 

bleedred

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I think they've said they'll agree an extension if a deal is agreed haven't they?
Maybe not just a deal. The EU would expect a clear direction, like why does she need an extension for?. They are basically asking "What is going to change in the next two months?"
 

MadMike

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For all the many, many criticisms you can legitimately throw at May, you have to admire the size of her balls.

Though then you remember that if it all goes wrong, the little people suffer and she retires into obscurity to live out her days in comfort, her wealth presumably squirreled away offshore in various currencies. Its actually everyone else's future she is playing chicken with, not her own.

Still. Balls.
How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.
 

Pexbo

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How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.
Her husband is a senior executive of an investment firm which manages nearly £1.5trn of investments. I think she will be ok in retirement.
 

Penna

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Those rumours have probably come about from that cnut Aaron Banks lobbying the deputy PM to veto an extension.
I don't think Italy will veto. Reading around the topic, it's a fact that the League's core heartlands in the north of Italy would be the biggest Italian losers in the event of a no-deal Brexit, in terms of exports lost.
 

Adebesi

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How is she ballsy? When you’re being stubborn and determined about something that has 0 personal risk of repercussions, it’s not brave or ballsy in any way.

She will go on to become a non-executive board member to a handful of firms and earn anywhere from a few hundred thousand to a few millions per year for doing little more than giving said businesses access to politician’s she acquainted with. She’s set for a wealthy life without drama while the rest of us pay for the chaos caused by the her “balsiness”.
Yeah I did acknowledge that in my post. All that is on the line is her reputation, now and through history, which I imagine is a big motivator for her. But you are right, it is hardly worrying about feeding your kids.
 

sun_tzu

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Might get the w.a. through but will make the actual trade talks a lot tougher to manage... That said may probably won't be in power for that part of it so I'd guess she might throw government support behind this?
 

CA_vampire

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For all the many, many criticisms you can legitimately throw at May, you have to admire the size of her balls.

Though then you remember that if it all goes wrong, the little people suffer and she retires into obscurity to live out her days in comfort, her wealth presumably squirreled away offshore in various currencies. Its actually everyone else's future she is playing chicken with, not her own.

Still. Balls.
So, what do you think she would do if she didn't "have balls"? What was the "no-balls" option?

(Edit: In my opinion, what May is doing is the most cowardly choice of them all: basically she is doing nothing and she blames all others, the parliament, the EU... )
 
Last edited:

dogrob

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Probably, has to be confirmed.

Just saw this:

France, Spain and Belgium are ready to veto a Brexit extension, the Press Association understands. The PA report goes on:

Sources have said France, Spain, Belgium and maybe Italy stand prepared to reject an extension without evidence Parliament is now ready to accept a deal and “the deadlock can be broken”.

Some member states worry there is no point to an extension as, even after 1,000 days of negotiation, Theresa May’s deal keeps being rejected and the EU cannot move any further towards the UK.

One source said: “We’re not against an extension per se but we need to have two things - first a demonstration that the situation has changed and there is a guarantee the extension is for something and second that an extension won’t be detrimental to the EU.

“Yes, a no-deal Brexit would be damaging and it’s absolutely not what we want but I think we’re ready to go to this situation because there are only two solutions - either a deal is accepted or there is no deal.

“The deal has been rejected and it keeps being rejected so if we come to no-deal then so be it.”

It is understood French president Emmanuel Macron believes Brexit is holding up his plans for radical reform of the EU and needs to be brought to a conclusion.
I am hoping that they do Veto the extension, enough is enough for me.
 

CA_vampire

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Not call a vote on a deal that has been rejected twice already the week before leaving day with no extension on the table when you know perfectly well that no deal will spell catastrophe for the country.
That's the "no-balls" choice? That's nothing.

After two years of failed negotiations, the "huge balls" decision would be to cancel article 50, call for new elections, and retire ... since she was incapable of finding a solution. What she is doing all this time is what any coward would be doing.
 

Adebesi

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That's the "no-balls" choice? That's nothing.

After two years of failed negotiations, the "huge balls" decision would be to cancel article 50, call for new elections, and retire ... since she was incapable of finding a solution. What she is doing all this time is what any coward would be doing.
Yeah, you're right. About the first bit I mean. That would be braver.
 

devilish

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Yes, I can see that, but a lot of our leavers believe that we're not the US, and we will have to trade with the EU and them with us, so let's 'clear the decks' with a 'no deal' if necessary and then come at it a fresh! In my experience, which I admit is limited, this view is getting stronger, not weaker, as a way to move past Brexit!
I can understand each point of view.

For Brexiteers the UK would be giving away its major card (39b) for a mere withdrawal agreement. Thus it would be better for them to go on a no deal brexit and try to negotiate something better. However that argument has 2 major flaws. First of all a no deal Brexit would literally cripple the UK's economy. The UK would be desperate to sign trade deals at that point as WTO rules are pretty shit. Secondly if the UK crush out with a no deal Brexit then the EU will have to re-arrange its budget to accommodate that 39b hole. Once that happens (and it will be painful for some) all there will be is a group of very pissed off countries who'll be expected to negotiate a trade deal with an unreliable country who had placed them in this shit in the first place and is in now desperate for a trade deal with little to offer in exchange. At that point, the best course of action for the EU would be to make Brexit as painful as possible, so UK based companies leave, they go to the EU country and someone else picks up the tab.
 

CA_vampire

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Yeah, you're right. About the first bit I mean. That would be braver.
Cheers mate, I am glad we agree.

A Prime Minister should take responsibility for the situations, not pass the buck. If she cannot find a solution, then she should resign, not blame others. She is being paid to do a job, nobody forced her to take this job. If she can't do the job, she should retire.
 

devilish

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I dont understand this. If MPs vote for May's deal there is no need for a referendum. And even if there was a referendum, why would we negotiate another deal with the EU (option C) if MPs backed May's deal?
A remainer would want a people's vote. If that goes tits up then he'll prefer an orderly Brexit were he can negotiate a deal with the EU on friendly terms. By offering them a people's vote in exchange of them supporting a withdrawal agreement, the remainers will get what they want + a second chance to influence negotiations if they lose again.
 

Guy Incognito

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Yeah I did acknowledge that in my post. All that is on the line is her reputation, now and through history, which I imagine is a big motivator for her. But you are right, it is hardly worrying about feeding your kids.
I do strangely think history will treat her kindly. Took on the impossible job and despite what anyone said, she managed to get a deal on the table, which was considered the hardest bit of the negotiations. Regardless whether the MPs agreed with it or not, good or bad.

Cameron meanwhile shirked responsibility.