The EU are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit. A long extension only works for them if the UK completely change direction, which looks highly unlikely looking from the outside.
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- Thread starter Silva
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3 things that I can see... None of them being the actual issue...
1. It provides a basis for asking for a longer extension as the EU needs a reason
2. It allows the conservatives to fight it on a hard brexit manifesto giving them the will of the people etc to execute that if they win.
3. From a party political sense it means labour will probably be in as big a mess as the conservatives when it comes to infighting.
I doubt any party gets a big enough majority to effectively get a brexit deal through post election (it might even be a hung parliament)... But it's a roll of the dice and it's not inconceivable that it turns into a defacto 2nd referendum with conservatives being the only leave option and the remain vote being split between others... With fptp it's possible (I think unlikley) that they could secure a big enough majority
They would know that the extension would lead to the commons forcing a softer brexit eventually or even a second vote, so again it suits them just fine.
A ge perhaps provides the basis for a long extension... Say 1 year and the conservative policy switches to managed no deal in that year (I know it won't work but it will probably get votes)
But the Uk have to give a valid reason now, not that they are going to discuss it for another two years going round in circles.
Only if there’s a reason though. They won’t just let Parliament argue with itself in perpetuity, which is all an extension would give us right now. We’ve established there’s no majority, never mind consensus, for any way forward, including a second ref. In those circumstances I’m certain a no deal could happen.
Doesn't sound like much of a solution just an extension of the last 33 months.
As I say it might not solve any actual issues... But I think right now it's survival mode and the opportunity to stay in power (as I think relying on the dup post brexit is not viable)... It could be she announces mv4 but taking phones off the cabinet and not letting them out until after she makes her speech... It sounds more like a ge to me but who knows at the moment... Anyway tenner... On or not
Fully agreed. Brexit voters wanted to leave the EU because they wanted more sovereignty; parliament is sovereign, and have been unable to determine any form of Brexit which they wish to pursue. They have now voted on all those forms of Brexit, and should not do so again because to vote again would, as you say, be ignoring the will of our sovereign parliament. Hence, by the logic you're promoting, remaining within the EU (the default option) would be our only option, and would represent British democracy in action.
This speech is just going to be the same as last time isn't it. Outside bet on her saying we're doing no deal
Not really as parliament on got involved after investment banker aka common woman Gina Miller decided to get involved.
Well erm that was pretty much nothing wasn't it...
Basically trying to get labour to have some ownership of brexit as well... Corbyn will.probabky have to take the bait I think
Basically trying to get labour to have some ownership of brexit as well... Corbyn will.probabky have to take the bait I think
Unbelievable, what a load of crap from May.
Well...yes, because the UK legal system determined that she was correct in her argument. Because (again) parliament in Britain is sovereign, not the PM or her party. If you want increased sovereignty for Britain then parliament is the means through which that is offered.
I 'll have that tenner
I agree with you. I agree with Paul as well in the sense that a GE doesnt actually solve anything, but it does do one thing. As I argued last week (though a lot of people disagreed) it would be hard or impossible for the EU to say no to a long extension if the UK says it needs time to hold an election, because it is, at least arguably, a constructive move and an attempt to break the impasse. Technically a GE could deliver a parliament capable of making a decision on this, even if few believe it will. But a detailed plan to resolve the crisis, commanding a commons majority, within the next 8 days is impossible, whereas a GE can be called.
I cant see any other move at this point, it is the last option available, the last roll of the dice. If it isnt a GE it is no deal.
You know it's bollocks when they don't take questions.
Reading between the lines, she's going to meet and then blame whatever outcome on Labour
Reading between the lines, she's going to meet and then blame whatever outcome on Labour
Brilliant. My post was redundant before I had even finished typing it.
There you all go, she’s ruled out a no deal brexit. Extension incoming.
I'm guessing Jeremy will ask for something he knows May can't or won't deliver so he can sidestep any share of responsibility. Seems the logical thing to do.
edit @Smores yeah, that too.
edit @Smores yeah, that too.
Is she going to concede her redlines of freedom of movement or independent trade policy? Offer is meaningless if not.
Unbelievable. 10 hours of cabinet and all she has is ‘Labour must agree my deal’. Fecking laughable.
Wonder what unicorns they can invent between them.
That's not quite what she said. Implication is she may be willing to adopt a customs union or some other soft Brexit to go along with the Withdrawal Agreement.
Corbyn doesn't want FoM either and independent trade policy means outside the CU.
Corbyn doesn't know what he wants.
Nor do any of them. Back to square one.
I don't like these posts which suggest the EU should be as punitive as possible towards the UK but I really hope they only offer a long extension. Can't be doing with these short extensions, let's get something significant going and not the 88th iteration of May's deal.
The EU haven't and she hasn't given any reason at all other than more endless discussions.
She's got a week to give a valid reason so May and Corbyn had better come up with something excluding unicorns pretty damn quick.
They definitely won't be willing to give a short extension again. It will show weakness. Plus, the parliament doesn't have a clue what it wants. EU will require a clear direction, which May cannot provide for now/ever.
swear down if there's one more unicorn metaphor i'm deleting this shitty thread
The EU being punitive?
Hopefully that's the end of the DUP's little power grab. May (I think) confirming that the current withdrawal arrangements will/cannot be renegotiated with EU - apart from a much softer Brexit (which everybody with any sense knew) and looking for Labour's support to get over the line with DUP sitting voting no but no longer having the numbers to make a difference (assuming Labour gets on board). At least that is my understanding.
I guess the next question is will DUP/ERG attempt to bring down the government if May accepts a customs union?
The EU needs to stop messing around and show the UK that enough is enough and in ten days show them the door and no extension, how long does this farce have to continue for.
Border will go in the sea where it belongs.
In theory not provided ni is treated the same as the rest of the UK... More tellingly though will the next conservative leader accept a customs union?
How? The EU/ Ireland would have no authority over NI customs or border arrangements in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit.
Maybe I'm just gullible as feck, but I just can't see us leaving with no deal.
I expect someone to collapse and call a 2nd ref or just revoke it if we get too close to leaving without a deal.
I expect someone to collapse and call a 2nd ref or just revoke it if we get too close to leaving without a deal.