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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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JPRouve

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I am got post on Friday from the local foreigners office with forms that I need to fill out and get filled out to get an Aufenthaltserlaubnis to continue to live and work in Germany despite the fact that I have now lived and worked in Germany for over 28 years, had a permanent residence which I got in 1992 and which was changed to not running out in 1996, this fell by the wayside due to the EU and now I will probably have to pay over one hundred Euros for the card that I can continue to live and work here.
Your frustration is understandable. I find unnerving that the first ones that will have to feel the consequences of the referendum counts a lot of people that didn't ask for it. It started with foreigners being abused during the first weeks following the referendum and now it's the british and EU citizens living abroad.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I don't think he'll engage with it at all.
I think for PR reasons he will have to show some sort of willing. Even if he later walks away saying the offer was made in bad faith and May wasn't willing to compromise.
 

sun_tzu

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It’s a tough call what he should do though. If he just tells her to feck off then she can blame him as well. Only logical option seems to be to agree to talks and then walk away blaming her for being utterly unwilling to compromise in talks.
Possibly... He could say there is no need for talks... There is a process in the house and if may gives her cabinet a free vote they can find a majority amongst all parties for an option and blame her for its failure so far... Problem is they might agree no brexit or a referendum which Corbyn seems to want to avoid
 

Buster15

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You Torybots are genuinely shameless.
Wow. That was impressive. Seven hours of Cabinet meeting and the stunning conclusion is precisely what many have been calling for for months; for the Tories to try to seek a common approach with the opposition.
Brilliant idea eh. Wish I had thought of that...
 

Paul the Wolf

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Wow. That was impressive. Seven hours of Cabinet meeting and the stunning conclusion is precisely what many have been calling for for months; for the Tories to try to seek a common approach with the opposition.
Brilliant idea eh. Wish I had thought of that...
4 days after the UK should have left.

However, what do you seriously expect to come out of it.
 

Infra-red

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I think for PR reasons he will have to show some sort of willing. Even if he later walks away saying the offer was made in bad faith and May wasn't willing to compromise.
Yes, yes - for appearance's sake he'll take a meeting, but this is a rather obvious trap that I don't see Labour falling for.
 

Classical Mechanic

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I am got post on Friday from the local foreigners office with forms that I need to fill out and get filled out to get an Aufenthaltserlaubnis to continue to live and work in Germany despite the fact that I have now lived and worked in Germany for over 28 years, had a permanent residence which I got in 1992 and which was changed to not running out in 1996, this fell by the wayside due to the EU and now I will probably have to pay over one hundred Euros for the card that I can continue to live and work here.
So the sum total of your hardship is £100 and it’s partly the EU’s fault, or am I missing something?
 

Buster15

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It’s a tough call what he should do though. If he just tells her to feck off then she can blame him as well. Only logical option seems to be to agree to talks and then walk away blaming her for being utterly unwilling to compromise in talks.
He is a no win situation though. He cannot say no and if he doesn't agree with TM then again it will be him who will be blamed.

At least we might get to see how clever he really is. Or should I say how devious he really is.
 

redshaw

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On the first bolded statement, that only applies to EU members. Switzerland and Norway don't have to accept deeper integration. UK got an exception to that as well.

On the second bolded, what we're seeing now is a rejection of staying in the trade area that the UK allegedly always wanted to be in. Because, if you hear the ERG talk, there's more opportunities for the UK outside of it and it can strike better deals for itself without the weight of the EU28 behind it. The treaty of Rome in 1957 that started was about creating a common market and customs union. Yet now the UK wants to leave even that.

If the UK wants to be in the Customs Union alone, or the Single Market fully, it can choose to do that without a deeper integration. But being in any kind of union means that you're not in full control of your trade policy. It's a group decision. And after years of filling the ears of voters with hate and suspicion of the EU as well as inflating our own self-importance, we're reaping what we sowed. Which is that people want out as point of moral principle that is not underpinned by any logic.
The EU has changed over time. It's clear UK wants the old style and to cherry pick the current one. Freedom of Movement seems to have been a big issue in case you hadn't noticed.

Also there's been talks about a EU army now the UK is leaving.
 
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Cheesy

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I'd say May's far more responsible than the right (if you mean ERG). She chose to court them for party management reasons, rather than the good of the country. She'll be justifiably remembered as the worst post-war PM.
I still reckon Cameron will probably go down as the worst overall. Those who already disapproved of his economics will view him as a fairly destructive figure who created the conditions for Brexit in the first place by driving people into poverty through needless austerity, and any arguments he did it for the good of the economy have basically been covered by an ocean of piss in the last few years.

May's undoubtedly horrendous, and made the mistake of basically going full-on, Lee Cattermole hard Brexit the moment she stepped into office when she knew it was never achievable, but she was probably always fecked irrespective of what path she took, even if her stubbornness has damned her to a far greater extent than was necessary.

Overall I can see her being remembered as a weird oddity, someone whose entire premiership was dominated by an issue over which she had little control, maybe a bit like Eden in that regard - albeit without the gravitas he'd perhaps built up beforehand.

I think there's a solid argument that while she was viewed as one of the government's more competent and experienced main figures before taking over, that her spell as Home Secretary was worse than her time as PM. Someone who spent years scapegoating migrants and blaming them for the country's ills while failing to even approach her targets to reduce immigration, and also someone who largely established the political conditions which preceded Windrush.
 

Buster15

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4 days after the UK should have left.

However, what do you seriously expect to come out of it.
I wish that I had not become so cynical....
There are two outcomes.
One would be for a genuine common purpose to be established and a compromise that both parties would be prepared to vote for in order to put country before party. Something you call a Unicorn.

The other would be effectively the inverse with the primary objective being to lay all the blame for failing on Labour.

What is your view my friend.
 

dogrob

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You are definitely missing a great deal. His peace of mind and life?
Thats quite true you dont have a clue how its all going to pan out and what will happen and what will be needed and as for the money fine its only a 100€ but its the principle in 1996 I got an unbefristeten Aufenthaltserlaubnis for EWG states which means that its permanent then because of the changes in the EU where one wasnt needed until Brexit now I can pay again why is how I look at it
 

dogrob

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So the sum total of your hardship is £100 and it’s partly the EU’s fault, or am I missing something?
you dont have a clue how its all going to pan out and what will happen and what will be needed and as for the money fine its only a 100€ but its the principle in 1996 I got an unbefristeten Aufenthaltserlaubnis for EWG states which means that its permanent then because of the changes in the EU where one wasnt needed until Brexit now I can pay again why? is how I look at it and yes due to changes you could say that the EU do have a little to do with it but the main portion is the UK.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I wish that I had not become so cynical....
There are two outcomes.
One would be for a genuine common purpose to be established and a compromise that both parties would be prepared to vote for in order to put country before party. Something you call a Unicorn.

The other would be effectively the inverse with the primary objective being to lay all the blame for failing on Labour.

What is your view my friend.
I just think it's an attempt at delay and laying more blame on Corbyn.

I'm trying to think of something they will come up with together which is actually possible and actually helps the situation and I can't think what it could be.
 

Sparky_Hughes

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Every single current mp should be lined up outside no.10 at dawn with a blindfold and a cigarette, and asked for their last words as a warning to the next lot of the consequences of self serving, double dealing and putting party Interests and their own interests above the needs of the country. Cameron as well. Absolute shower of bastards.
 

Ducklegs

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The EU needs to stop messing around and show the UK that enough is enough and in ten days show them the door and no extension, how long does this farce have to continue for.
The EU can’t afford to “push the Uk out the door” that is why they want a deal, that is why they still want to tie us in to some form of closer relationship than a hard brexit offers and tit for tat tariff wars.
 

dogrob

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Every single current mp should be lined up outside no.10 at dawn with a blindfold and a cigarette, and asked for their last words as a warning to the next lot of the consequences of self serving, double dealing and putting party Interests and their own interests above the needs of the country. Cameron as well. Absolute shower of bastards.
And me with a 50 calibre Mauser quoting Quake 3 shouting head shot :devil:
 

Ubik

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I still reckon Cameron will probably go down as the worst overall. Those who already disapproved of his economics will view him as a fairly destructive figure who created the conditions for Brexit in the first place by driving people into poverty through needless austerity, and any arguments he did it for the good of the economy have basically been covered by an ocean of piss in the last few years.

May's undoubtedly horrendous, and made the mistake of basically going full-on, Lee Cattermole hard Brexit the moment she stepped into office when she knew it was never achievable, but she was probably always fecked irrespective of what path she took, even if her stubbornness has damned her to a far greater extent than was necessary.

Overall I can see her being remembered as a weird oddity, someone whose entire premiership was dominated by an issue over which she had little control, maybe a bit like Eden in that regard - albeit without the gravitas he'd perhaps built up beforehand.

I think there's a solid argument that while she was viewed as one of the government's more competent and experienced main figures before taking over, that her spell as Home Secretary was worse than her time as PM. Someone who spent years scapegoating migrants and blaming them for the country's ills while failing to even approach her targets to reduce immigration, and also someone who largely established the political conditions which preceded Windrush.
Either way, Gordon Brown's getting a boost out of it.
 

Classical Mechanic

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you dont have a clue how its all going to pan out and what will happen and what will be needed and as for the money fine its only a 100€ but its the principle in 1996 I got an unbefristeten Aufenthaltserlaubnis for EWG states which means that its permanent then because of the changes in the EU where one wasnt needed until Brexit now I can pay again why? is how I look at it and yes due to changes you could say that the EU do have a little to do with it but the main portion is the UK.
Fair enough Rob, I was unappreciative of how the uncertainty would affect you.
 

Kentonio

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The EU can’t afford to “push the Uk out the door” that is why they want a deal, that is why they still want to tie us in to some form of closer relationship than a hard brexit offers and tit for tat tariff wars.
The EU can afford it. The UK can’t. Both get hurt but we get hurt a feckload more than them. How is this not clear to everyone by now?
 

Cheesy

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The EU can’t afford to “push the Uk out the door” that is why they want a deal, that is why they still want to tie us in to some form of closer relationship than a hard brexit offers and tit for tat tariff wars.
It'll be irritating for them but they're be able to afford it, relatively speaking, even if there's a small dent. I think their much larger concern is - as has been alluded to - the Irish border issue which will be a major headache for all sides in case of a No Deal Brexit.
 

Buster15

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I just think it's an attempt at delay and laying more blame on Corbyn.

I'm trying to think of something they will come up with together which is actually possible and actually helps the situation and I can't think what it could be.
Yes. I agree. Fantastic goal by McTominay by the way.
Far more fun than the dreaded Brexit.