Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[RedChip]

You're right, people are wrongly looking at the 50% threshold as a meaningful landmark here, but I think it has the opposite meaning. Ekeing out a 51% vote in favour of any option wouldnt settle the matter. The indicative vote would only matter if there was a clear majority in favour. Its hard to say what the number would be, but if, say, 75% of MPs agreed with a given path, then that would show a clear cross party consensus around a single option. At that point it would be clear that it was the Government that was the odd one out. As it is, whether its 49% or 51%, it just boils down to the opposition parties + a handful of rebels opposing the party of Government. Which in truth we already knew. This whole thing has just been Parliament procrastinating.

There isn't going to be that sort of majority for any of the potential Brexits or remain options. However, the indicative votes do show possible paths for a compromise that might achieve a majority. I don't think it is helpful at all to dismiss all the indicative votes as pointless simply because there was no majority. I mean is a majority of 1 that much more indicative than a narrow defeat of 3?

 

[GloryHunter07]

You're right, people are wrongly looking at the 50% threshold as a meaningful landmark here, but I think it has the opposite meaning. Ekeing out a 51% vote in favour of any option wouldnt settle the matter. The indicative vote would only matter if there was a clear majority in favour. Its hard to say what the number would be, but if, say, 75% of MPs agreed with a given path, then that would show a clear cross party consensus around a single option. At that point it would be clear that it was the Government that was the odd one out. As it is, whether its 49% or 51%, it just boils down to the opposition parties + a handful of rebels opposing the party of Government. Which in truth we already knew. This whole thing has just been Parliament procrastinating.

Presumably you apply the same logic to the referendum result? We should have required 75% for Brexit to go ahead?

 

[Smores]

Only thing left to try would be to combine the customs union and confirmatory ref motions, then dare Lisa Nandy to vote against it and still say she's the only adult in the room.

I'd only do that as a 3rd option not a replacement. I'm not convinced Tories wouldn't abandon CU with that pegged, hopefully they're getting the numbers sorted today ahead of tomorrow.

Only the goverment can solve this mess in truth. They could change path to one of these options and that would be that. Unfortunately parliament can't say let's just go with the most favoured

 

[Smores]

I guess they take the May approach and hope that as the deadline gets nearer MPs panic and call a Peoples vote?

My MP is a Lab remainer and he abstained. Annoying.

For all the effort it takes, email your MP because you can guarantee the hard brexiteers do.

 

[Stanley Road]

If cleaning bogs abroad let's you earn money you can then use to improve your life and the lives of your kids and give them better opportunities than you had, then why exactly is that a bad thing?

Because you may not want to leave your homeland or family, is that so hard to understand? And if bog cleaners are in desperate shortage in a particular land, the hiring company will do all the paperwork for you so you can work legally. It's like some people have never worked with anyone outside of the EU.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Because you may not want to leave your homeland or family, is that so hard to understand? And if bog cleaners are in desperate shortage in a particular land, the hiring company will do all the paperwork for you so you can work legally. It's like some people have never worked with anyone outside of the EU.

I can envisage the adverts for bog cleaners post Brexit.
Guaranteed £30k wage but your family can't accompany you unless they can earn at least as much.

 

[EwanI Ted]

Presumably you apply the same logic to the referendum result? We should have required 75% for Brexit to go ahead?

You can't really compare those two things.

 

[saivet]

For all the effort it takes, email your MP because you can guarantee the hard brexiteers do.

I sent an email earlier this morning. My MP is a Tory that rejected all four options. Don't expect him to do anything, but figured it can't do no harm.

 

[Penna]

I suspect she's a fashionista in the same way that a nursing home carer describes the only woman wearing a coat that hasn't been shat on by a cat, and who occasionally brushes her hair as 'quite the fashionista'.

She has always been known for her (relatively) daring shoes, she favours leopard-skin prints and patent boots. I don't think the old Theresa would have worn a zip-up fleece coat over and over again.

 

[Stanley Road]

I can envisage the adverts for bog cleaners post Brexit.
Guaranteed £30k wage but your family can't accompany you unless they can earn at least as much.

There aren't enough bog cleaners worldwide to clean that shithole up

 

[Kentonio]

Because you may not want to leave your homeland or family, is that so hard to understand?

Have I missed some story about people being forced to emigrate to work abroad? Last I checked it was a choice.

And if bog cleaners are in desperate shortage in a particular land, the hiring company will do all the paperwork for you so you can work legally. It's like some people have never worked with anyone outside of the EU.

You reckon youngsters in Grimsby or small mining towns in Yorkshire get a lot of people telling them about the great opportunities working outside the EU and facillitating their chances of doing it? It's bollocks. Back before the EU, the vast bulk of people working abroad were people from middle class or higher backgrounds who had the money to make that happen. Since the EU came along with freedom of movement there's been a ton of working class kids realizing living and working in other countries doesn't have to just be a fantasy. Personally I'm gutted that future generations of kids might never get that opportunity. But hey, the Tory MP's and their membership in the home counties probably won't struggle so I guess that's just fine.

 

[Kentonio]

She has always been known for her (relatively) daring shoes, she favours leopard-skin prints and patent boots. I don't think the old Theresa would have worn a zip-up fleece coat over and over again.

She'll probably be living in an old caravan down by the Humber and cashing in her pension for scratch cards if she keeps this up.

 

[Smores]

You're right, people are wrongly looking at the 50% threshold as a meaningful landmark here, but I think it has the opposite meaning. Ekeing out a 51% vote in favour of any option wouldnt settle the matter. The indicative vote would only matter if there was a clear majority in favour. Its hard to say what the number would be, but if, say, 75% of MPs agreed with a given path, then that would show a clear cross party consensus around a single option. At that point it would be clear that it was the Government that was the odd one out. As it is, whether its 49% or 51%, it just boils down to the opposition parties + a handful of rebels opposing the party of Government. Which in truth we already knew. This whole thing has just been Parliament procrastinating.

I mean you've literally just described how parliament works to pass all legislation.

 

[GloryHunter07]

You can't really compare those two things.

Of course you can

 

[GloryHunter07]

For all the effort it takes, email your MP because you can guarantee the hard brexiteers do.

Fair point.

 

[Ady87]

Our constituency has always been safe Labour but it has gone to another level under Twigg. From the six elections he has been in, he got a majority of over 50% in 3, with the smallest one being 37.5% back in 2010.

He posts on his website sometimes about Brexit. You can read the last couple of updates here and here (in the second one he mentions why he votes against another referendum).

Didn't realise you were local to me! I checked out his Twitter and he seems to be engaged in matters I'd expect of a Labour MP but literally no mention of Brexit. I'll take a look at those updates on his website now.

Edit : I didn't check the results on how Halton voted but can see in the latest update he says it was Leave majority. What were the exact figures?

 

[Mockney]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

How anyone can look at that and their first instinct be to blame Labour is beyond me.

 

[Damien]

Didn't realise you were local to me! I checked out his Twitter and he seems to be engaged in matters I'd expect of a Labour MP but literally no mention of Brexit. I'll take a look at those updates on his website now.

Edit : I didn't check the results on how Halton voted but can see in the latest update he says it was Leave majority. What were the exact figures?

Remain: 27,678 (42.6%)
Leave: 37,327 (57.4%)

I was in St. Helens at the time but now back in Widnes (Halton). The voting was pretty firmly leave around most of the North West except for Liverpool, Manchester and a few other constituencies.

 

[sun_tzu]

May be they just want a no-deal Brexit.

268 voted in the referendum motion
261 in the Norway motion
270 in the revoke motion
273 in the customs union motion

So there is over 40 conservative MPs not voting... Presumably a large part of that is the cabinet being told to abstain?

As brexiteers continually say it is a remain / soft brexit cabinet then the logic is perhaps if they were given a free vote there would be a majority... But whilst may still wants to try to push her deal through that simply won't be allowed

 

[Ady87]

Our constituency has always been safe Labour but it has gone to another level under Twigg. From the six elections he has been in, he got a majority of over 50% in 3, with the smallest one being 37.5% back in 2010.

He posts on his website sometimes about Brexit. You can read the last couple of updates here and here (in the second one he mentions why he votes against another referendum).

'I believe a second referendum could be very divisive and to date I have not seen a significant shift of opinion in Halton against leaving the EU.'

I wonder where he is getting this from? When I've been to local CLP meetings/votes and Derek Twigg has been there, the average age has been well over 65 and it's very cliquey. The young people that do go are met with hostility/challenge and I've frankly been disgusted with it all. I'm therefore not surprised that Twigg's been asking his mates what they think about a second vote and they've not changed their minds.

Not saying I support a second vote either, just that for him to say he's not seen a significant shift is interesting as I've not been asked and I've got an idea who has been.

 

[Damien]

'I believe a second referendum could be very divisive and to date I have not seen a significant shift of opinion in Halton against leaving the EU.'

I wonder where he is getting this from? When I've been to local CLP meetings/votes and Derek Twigg has been there, the average age has been well over 65 and it's very cliquey. The young people that do go are met with hostility/challenge and I've frankly been disgusted with it all. I'm therefore not surprised that Twigg's been asking his mates what they think about a second vote and they've not changed their minds.

Not saying I support a second vote either, just that for him to say he's not seen a significant shift is interesting as I've not been asked and I've got an idea who has been.

Interesting. Guess he's going from the calls/emails he gets and they're probably mostly people wanting Brexit to happen.

 

[Ady87]

Interesting. Guess he's going from the calls/emails he gets and they're probably mostly people wanting Brexit to happen.

Looks that way! I'm Widnes too, Halton View massive!

 

[Drifter]

Head of civil service warns ministers of dire impact of leaving EU without deal

Cabinet secretary Sir Mark Sedwill says no deal would make UK 'less safe', see food prices soar and trigger worst recession in a decade

Britain's most senior civil servant has privately warned cabinet ministers of the dire consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, told ministers that leaving the EU without an agreement will result in food prices rising by ten per cent, the police being unable to protect people and the economy suffering the worst recession in a decade.

Direct rule would have to be restored in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007 and the government would come under pressure to bail out companies that had gone bust, he warned.


In an explosive 14-page briefing sent to every cabinet minister and obtained by the Daily Mail, Sir Mark said leaving without an agreement would make Britain "less safe" and see pressure on law enforcement authorities "enormously increase".

The stark warning comes just ten days before Britain is due to leave the EU with no deal after Theresa May's exit plan was rejected three times and MPs voted down various alternatives. 4

Parliament is strongly opposed to a no-deal exit, meaning the government is likely to instead seek a further delay to Brexit. However, the EU has demanded a concrete plan from the UK for how the extension will be used before it agrees to a lengthy postponement.

On Monday, MPs rejected all four possible proposals for a way forward: two versions of a softer Brexit, a fresh referendum and revoking Article 50.

The cabinet will meet for four hours on Monday in a bid to thrash out a way forward, but ministers are deeply divided between those wanting Ms May to agree to a softer Brexit and those who want to leave without a deal.

Cabinet ministers had reportedly sought Sir Mark's advice on the risks of no deal in order to ensure they were meeting their duty to govern in the national interest.

In his response, the cabinet secretary, who also acts as Ms May's national security adviser, said: "We believe there would be significant disruption in the short term. Food prices would increase by up to 10 per cent, with steeper rises in fresh product prices."

He said the consequences of no deal would be "more severe" in Northern Ireland than elsewhere, adding: "The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule."

And raising the prospect of law and order breaking down, Sir Mark said none of government's "mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones...the UK would be less safe as a result."

He continued: "Our national security would be disrupted....The stability of the union would be dislocated."

The cabinet secretary said the economy would suffer the worst recession since 2008, with the subsequent fall in the value of the pound likely to be "more harmful" than in 2008 because it would affect only the UK and not other countries.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I wouldn’t be opposed to a General Strike right about now to attempt to force the government to withdraw A50.

 

[Damien]

Looks that way! I'm Widnes too, Halton View massive!

I grew up near Peel House. Not far away at all.

 

[redshaw]

No deal is probably the only outcome now.

If one wants to honour the vote then yes, it's kind of always been the case unless the EU want to undermine themselves for one country so to speak.

EU have put up a very strong position and have left options of calling the whole thing off, the option of a soft brexit which is actually is worse than staying a full member and utterly pointless or agreeing to a WA and getting hammered in the trade negotiations and becoming trapped in limbo.

The only way is to leave on a no deal and hope we can recover and ride the hit and there's pressure from other EU countries to make a trade deal.

EU don't want any kind of favourable deal as it could lead to more leaving. They were never going to help us leaving.

While I'm in favour of remaining a full member, we've been a stick in the mud for a while. EU are always calling for deeper integration of the policies. Is there a chance in 5-10 years UK might have to leave anyway? UK has always favoured the EU just being an economic trade area. Is the UK best off starting now rather than leaving in 10 years?

 

[Buster15]

I have been attacking Tories just as much. Corbyn's (impossible) deal is not on the table. Labour unfortunately are led by an idiot.

As I have mentioned before he is simply a puppet who can bend and sway to the tune he is given.

The power base, if you can call it that rests with the leaders of Momentum. They have Jeremy in a vice like grip and as soon as they have done with him he will be kicked into touch.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives are significantly worse in that since they were able to dispense with the Liberals they have progressively show their true nasty divisions and self interest.

The traditional two party system is badly broken as is politics in general.
What we desperately need is either the emergence of a plausible alternative or better still a real strong leader who is able to pull either party together and give the country back it's sense of purpose.
Neither seem likely but we cannot give up hope.

 

[MadMike]

While I'm in favour of remaining a full member, we've been a stick in the mud for a while. EU are always calling for deeper integration of the policies. Is there a chance in 5-10 years UK might have to leave anyway? UK has always favoured the EU just being an economic trade area. Is the UK best off starting now rather than leaving in 10 years?

On the first bolded statement, that only applies to EU members. Switzerland and Norway don't have to accept deeper integration. UK got an exception to that as well.

On the second bolded, what we're seeing now is a rejection of staying in the trade area that the UK allegedly always wanted to be in. Because, if you hear the ERG talk, there's more opportunities for the UK outside of it and it can strike better deals for itself without the weight of the EU28 behind it. The treaty of Rome in 1957 that started was about creating a common market and customs union. Yet now the UK wants to leave even that.

If the UK wants to be in the Customs Union alone, or the Single Market fully, it can choose to do that without a deeper integration. But being in any kind of union means that you're not in full control of your trade policy. It's a group decision. And after years of filling the ears of voters with hate and suspicion of the EU as well as inflating our own self-importance, we're reaping what we sowed. Which is that people want out as point of moral principle that is not underpinned by any logic.

 

[dogrob]

I am now at the stage ten days then hard brexit, if the leavers are right and everything will be hunky dory then they can say told you so and if it all goes tits up then they can reap what they sowed.

On another note but related to Brexit the local office for foreigners sent me paperwork regarding getting an Aufenthaltstitel so that I can live and work in Germany.

 

[Buster15]

@SteveJ can speak welsh, that's like 13 or 14 languages and alphabets at once.

I can speak Bristolian. Nobody can understand that.

 

[Kentonio]

On the first bolded statement, that only applies to EU members. Switzerland and Norway don't have to accept deeper integration. UK got an exception to that as well.

On the second bolded, what we're seeing now is a rejection of staying in the trade area that the UK allegedly always wanted to be in. Because, if you hear the ERG talk, there's more opportunities for the UK outside of it and it can strike better deals for itself without the weight of the EU28 behind it. The treaty of Rome in 1957 that started was about creating a common market and customs union. Yet now the UK wants to leave even that.

If the UK wants to be in the Customs Union alone, or the Single Market fully, it can choose to do that without a deeper integration. But being in any kind of union means that you're not in full control of your trade policy. It's a group decision. And after years of filling the ears of voters with hate and suspicion of the EU as well as inflating our own self-importance, we're reaping what we sowed. Which is that people want out as point of moral principle that is not underpinned by any logic.

Why does that quote have my name on? I didn't say that.

 

[MadMike]

Why does that quote have my name on? I didn't say that.

No idea, I must have fecked up the quoting somehow. Fixed it now.

 

[Minimalist]

How anyone can look at that and their first instinct be to blame Labour is beyond me.

Blame who instead?

 

[Buster15]

To some extent, I can respect those that vote against it. I disagree with it, but they've made a decision and they know it will be made public. But the abstainers can feck right off.

I have never really understood the logic of abstaining, in particular when they were supposed to be trying to find something the MP'S could AGREE on.
Anyone who did that should be ashamed of themselves.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

As I have mentioned before he is simply a puppet who can bend and sway to the tune he is given.

The power base, if you can call it that rests with the leaders of Momentum. They have Jeremy in a vice like grip and as soon as they have done with him he will be kicked into touch.

Nevertheless, the Conservatives are significantly worse in that since they were able to dispense with the Liberals they have progressively show their true nasty divisions and self interest.

The traditional two party system is badly broken as is politics in general.
What we desperately need is either the emergence of a plausible alternative or better still a real strong leader who is able to pull either party together and give the country back it's sense of purpose.
Neither seem likely but we cannot give up hope.

Agree completely. Something drastic has to happen and soon. A sorry state of affairs.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

• Michel Barnier said that a no-deal Brexit would not remove issues like Ireland and the UK’s financial contribution to the EU from the debate because as soon as the UK opened trade talks with the EU, these issues would reappear. In response to a question from a British MEP, he said:

[After no-deal] there won’t be many months passing before the UK will start asking for negotiations on a free trade agreement or other issues, like transport.

The topics of Brexit will still be there - Ireland, the financial resolution, the legal obligations of the UK, the issues of citizens and citizens’ rights. These are questions we will put again and again.

If there is no deal and the UK wants to discuss trade or other subjects, we will put the same subjects back on the table.


I presume parliament are aware of this.

 

[Buster15]

I guess they take the May approach and hope that as the deadline gets nearer MPs panic and call a Peoples vote?

My MP is a Lab remainer and he abstained. Annoying.

You should send him an email telling him how dissatisfied you are.
I have done it many times to my Tory MP. Suffice it to say that he has stopped responding but at least I am telling him directly what I think of him.

 

[Buster15]

Remain: 27,678 (42.6%)
Leave: 37,327 (57.4%)

I was in St. Helens at the time but now back in Widnes (Halton). The voting was pretty firmly leave around most of the North West except for Liverpool, Manchester and a few other constituencies.

I wonder if the 37327 can actually remember why they voted leave.
As we now know the majority were well and truly conned. Sold a vision that could never be achieved.

 

[JPRouve]

I can speak Bristolian. Nobody can understand that.

On a side note, you know that you could see "speak french and be clean" on Occitania schools walls.

 

[Buster15]

On the first bolded statement, that only applies to EU members. Switzerland and Norway don't have to accept deeper integration. UK got an exception to that as well.

On the second bolded, what we're seeing now is a rejection of staying in the trade area that the UK allegedly always wanted to be in. Because, if you hear the ERG talk, there's more opportunities for the UK outside of it and it can strike better deals for itself without the weight of the EU28 behind it. The treaty of Rome in 1957 that started was about creating a common market and customs union. Yet now the UK wants to leave even that.

If the UK wants to be in the Customs Union alone, or the Single Market fully, it can choose to do that without a deeper integration. But being in any kind of union means that you're not in full control of your trade policy. It's a group decision. And after years of filling the ears of voters with hate and suspicion of the EU as well as inflating our own self-importance, we're reaping what we sowed. Which is that people want out as point of moral principle that is not underpinned by any logic.

Mike, I am sure you are not at all mad. I have no idea how that post was attributed to me.
I certainly didn't post any such thing.