Iran v US confrontation

Kaos

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Are USA citizens actually dumber than the rest of the world or does it only get so much exposure because there's so many of them and they're so active on Twitter? The replies on all those Trump and Iran-related tweets are just fecking mind boggling.
They have their fair-share of stupid, but a lot of them are Russian bots.
 

Ballache

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Today his boss and his counterpart from Iraq were taken out. Nasralla will also go soon and when it eventually does happen don't cry your eyes out because he will always be a terrorist for his role in Syria.
He's a hero to some, his role in preventing ISIS from breaching our borders is vital. He won't be going anywhere anytime soon, and even if he does Hezbolla aren't going anywhere :)
You keep on cheering for the Americans who have been so good for the Middle East :)
 

Don't Kill Bill

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What does the best case scenario look like from here?
Best case for who?

The crux of this is that the Iranian govt wants nukes and is prepared to do what ever it takes to get them.

The rest of the world don't want Iran to have nukes.

The USA is prepared to hold sanctions on Iran until it gives up its aim to have nukes and thinks it can force the issue economically.

The Iranian govt is in trouble for the first time domestically because the economic hardship is forcing a wedge between it leadership and the people who are paying the cost of its desire to have nukes and oppose the US by spending billions on proxy forces across the middle east.

When sanction go on the US got the blame but as the economic damage mounts it is inevitable that people question whether its all worth it to them. The Iranian govt is in a bind if they can't escalate this further they are in danger of falling, you can't keep shooting thousands of people to stay in power and expect to remain popular unless you can show your external policy is working. So they attack Saudi's oil facilities and the US embassy.

So the US kill the two most senior generals who made that decision.

Best out come for the US is the Iranian regime falls.

Best outcome for Iran is US overreach and ends up changing its policy following massive casualties because that is the only way they will change their policy on Iranian nukes.

Best outcome for the rest of the world depends on whether you could live with several nuclear powers in the middle east or not.
 

Ady87

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His current pinned tweet
I'd say it's a fairly safe bet he's counting on it...
The replies to this tweet are frightening. These people don't care who has been killed or how/why, just that America is asserting it's dominance and they're proud of it. I can't tell who is a troll and who isn't.
 

Hamnat

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The replies to this tweet are frightening. These people don't care who has been killed or how/why, just that America is asserting it's dominance and they're proud of it. I can't tell who is a troll and who isn't.
Consider those people the "Trump Rally" attendees. They support him no matter what no questions asked ALWAYS. Those are the type of people you know to stay away from and watch out for at least. Because, they are crazy
 

Scrumpet

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Best case for who?

The crux of this is that the Iranian govt wants nukes and is prepared to do what ever it takes to get them.

The rest of the world don't want Iran to have nukes.

The USA is prepared to hold sanctions on Iran until it gives up its aim to have nukes and thinks it can force the issue economically.

The Iranian govt is in trouble for the first time domestically because the economic hardship is forcing a wedge between it leadership and the people who are paying the cost of its desire to have nukes and oppose the US by spending billions on proxy forces across the middle east.

When sanction go on the US got the blame but as the economic damage mounts it is inevitable that people question whether its all worth it to them. The Iranian govt is in a bind if they can't escalate this further they are in danger of falling, you can't keep shooting thousands of people to stay in power and expect to remain popular unless you can show your external policy is working. So they attack Saudi's oil facilities and the US embassy.

So the US kill the two most senior generals who made that decision.

Best out come for the US is the Iranian regime falls.

Best outcome for Iran is US overreach and ends up changing its policy following massive casualties because that is the only way they will change their policy on Iranian nukes.

Best outcome for the rest of the world depends on whether you could live with several nuclear powers in the middle east or not.
I was thinking best case scenario from a humanist perspective, least amount of conflict, least amount of death. But I take the point that any outcome that doesn't resolve the nuclear issue may be just kicking the can down the road.
 

Redplane

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They have their fair-share of stupid, but a lot of them are Russian bots.
A lot of them are indeed bots or the same person with multiple accounts. I monitor a lot of news and social media sites and it's fascinating to see how the same person pops up everywhere or a lot of them use the same writing style, or when you link back to their Twitter or other social media account you can tell the whole thing was set up just to stir the pot on one very particular part of the political hemisphere. I'd love to think I'm being too much of a conspiracy theorist there but when you also have the world's most renowned intelligence services, academics and media all reporting on these issues and Facebook and Twitter don't even deny it - there is only one conclusion to make. There are also several sites in existence with scripts that analyze those comments and accounts for legitimacy without human review involved - kind of like what fakespot did for product reviews - though there some of the fake reviewers have caught on on how to phrase differently to not be flagged as fake. It's probably not too difficult to defeat an algorithm once you know what it looks for.

I haven't heard anyone around me so far say anything about this killing. Most Americans don't give a shit about a person that until now they never heard of before. The Bin Laden capture/killing was an entirely different thing and did legitimately fire up people to be very pro USA - which you can't truly blame them for given what he s been responsible for on our own soil.

Again - the man killed was bad news and in some ways he probably deserved his fate- I just our people would recognize though that this is not just a go Trump go USA thing. There is a reason why even all the proclaimed "fake news" doesn't criticize what happened (much)- and Dems are generally quiet about it as well. The whole platform of keeping America out of other countries' problems and spending those dollars on the American people instead has time and again proven to be a lie by both Rs and Ds.
 
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LilyWhiteSpur

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Are USA citizens actually dumber than the rest of the world or does it only get so much exposure because there's so many of them and they're so active on Twitter? The replies on all those Trump and Iran-related tweets are just fecking mind boggling.
Still a lot of Nationalism in America, Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. I mean take a look at their gun policy.
 

Redplane

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Still a lot of Nationalism in America, Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. I mean take a look at their gun policy.
Gun policy discussion aside - I am glad you said nationalism and not patriotism. Europeans or those who have studied both world wars will recognize the difference. It's a lesson some here have yet to learn. I wish that lesson would come sooner - as it seems our society has dropped patriotism for nationalism and tribalism.
 

shamans

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Best case for who?

The crux of this is that the Iranian govt wants nukes and is prepared to do what ever it takes to get them.

The rest of the world don't want Iran to have nukes.

The USA is prepared to hold sanctions on Iran until it gives up its aim to have nukes and thinks it can force the issue economically.

The Iranian govt is in trouble for the first time domestically because the economic hardship is forcing a wedge between it leadership and the people who are paying the cost of its desire to have nukes and oppose the US by spending billions on proxy forces across the middle east.

When sanction go on the US got the blame but as the economic damage mounts it is inevitable that people question whether its all worth it to them. The Iranian govt is in a bind if they can't escalate this further they are in danger of falling, you can't keep shooting thousands of people to stay in power and expect to remain popular unless you can show your external policy is working. So they attack Saudi's oil facilities and the US embassy.

So the US kill the two most senior generals who made that decision.

Best out come for the US is the Iranian regime falls.

Best outcome for Iran is US overreach and ends up changing its policy following massive casualties because that is the only way they will change their policy on Iranian nukes.

Best outcome for the rest of the world depends on whether you could live with several nuclear powers in the middle east or not.
U.S is not world police. Mind their own business they should.
 

LilyWhiteSpur

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Gun policy discussion aside - I am glad you said nationalism and not patriotism. Europeans or those who have studied both world wars will recognize the difference. It's a lesson some here have yet to learn. I wish that lesson would come sooner - as it seems our society has dropped patriotism for nationalism and tribalism.
Im from Northern Ireland so I understand the difference Nationalism, completed tribalism is a pretty toxic mix.
 

Spoony

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I suspect this will increase proxy wars in the region. I don't think Iran will openly respond to the assassination.
 

GiddyUp

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I find the European stance (including UK here) in all these things quite hypocritical and cynical.

On one hand they profit from the US having their backs on everything including protecting their eastern border, but disdain being America's bitch and being dragged into conflicts. Conflicts that often protect their interests too might I add. While at the same time being too timid, disorganised and nationalistic to put their lot together and form a unified military force and strong foreign policy agenda, so they get taken seriously at the global stage and become independent of US foreign policy.
Bullshit, European countries would be well able to defend themselves if itever came down to it. Just because they don't go around with a big military hard on like the US. When was the last war they won? All the US military do is bring chaos to regions that require proper negotiations. Except the Navy, I believe they serve a global purpose but the rest, no.
 

Maticmaker

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Is there perhaps, too much emphasis being placed on these apparent sequential incidents?

Was Soleimani just caught out in a place where he should not have been (allegedly involved in organising anti-USA riots in Iraq)? Had the US taken the opportunity to show how quickly they could respond to their Contractors death, and to back up their assertion that Iran was behind the riots in Iraq, and finally striking a lethal blow to Iran's upper military echelons. Some might call it a good day at the office?
 

shamans

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American voters have fecked us.
It's the reddit and online dumb pseudo liberals who started smearing Hillary as "just as bad as trump". Not to mention people who voted Gary Johnson instead of Hillary because Bernie didn't get nominated. Those people are just as much to blame. It could have easily gone Hillary's way and it wouldn't have been a total mess.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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Is there perhaps, too much emphasis being placed on these apparent sequential incidents?

Was Soleimani just caught out in a place where he should not have been (allegedly involved in organising anti-USA riots in Iraq)? Had the US taken the opportunity to show how quickly they could respond to their Contractors death, and to back up their assertion that Iran was behind the riots in Iraq, and finally striking a lethal blow to Iran's upper military echelons. Some might call it a good day at the office?
Iran caught with its pants down for sure here.
 

Redplane

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One of the most unfortunate things here is that the fact Donnie Trump Jr basically announced the strike in a now deleted tweet that caused defense contractor stocks to spike, even when the need to knows who are actually in our government were not informed beforehand. That reeks of something highly illegal. That in some ways should be the real focus here.

Insider trading based on this administrations announcements is probably the one major reason why so many investors and corporations don't mind this POTUS - the corporate lobby/investors are loving it. No regulatory control, and a WH that works directly in their interests to line their pockets. All while education, infrastructure and healthcare is increasingly unaffordable and broken.
 

langster

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One of the most unfortunate things here is that the fact Donnie Trump Jr basically announced the strike in a now deleted tweet that caused defense contractor stocks to spike, even when the need to knows who are actually in our government were not informed beforehand. That reeks of something highly illegal. That in some ways should be the real focus here.

Insider trading based on this administrations announcements is probably the one major reason why so many investors and corporations don't mind this POTUS - the corporate lobby/investors are loving it. No regulatory control, and a WH that works directly in their interests to line their pockets. All while education, infrastructure and healthcare is increasingly unaffordable and broken.

Eric Trump Tweeted about it too. Lindsay Graham also admitted he's known it was coming for a few days.

As usual though feck all will happen to the Trumps
 

sport2793

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It's the reddit and online dumb pseudo liberals who started smearing Hillary as "just as bad as trump". Not to mention people who voted Gary Johnson instead of Hillary because Bernie didn't get nominated. Those people are just as much to blame. It could have easily gone Hillary's way and it wouldn't have been a total mess.
If Hillary had been elected, none of this would be happening right now as the US would never have left the nuclear deal, nor any other decent agreement for that matter.
 

MTF

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If Hillary had been elected, none of this would be happening right now as the US would never have left the nuclear deal, nor any other decent agreement for that matter.
I really dislike when people claim that she would've been worse, particularly on this specific issue. It's so unlikely that she would've ever pulled out of the deal.
John Bolton left just before the party started.
I find that he has suffered the greatest injustice in all of this. :angel:
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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BBC said:
Iran's National Security Council has vowed to exact "harsh vengeance" on the US for the killing of Gen Qasem Soleimani.
"The US regime will be responsible for the consequences of this criminal adventurism," the council said in a statement to Iranian media.
"This was the biggest US strategic blunder in the West Asia region, and America will not easily escape its consequences."
It did not elaborate on any action Iran is considering - only that it had taken "appropriate decisions".
It also said the killing of Iraqi Shia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in the same air strike was a "symbol of the unbreakable bond between the two nations of Iran and Iraq in the future".
...
 

RobinLFC

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@2cents or others with some insight: will this also affect Jordan? I'm supposed to be there at the end of March, I just realised - not sure how keen I'll be if there are proxy wars going on the region, but I thought that Jordan mostly kept out of that?
 

Rajma

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@2cents or others with some insight: will this also affect Jordan? I'm supposed to be there at the end of March, I just realised - not sure how keen I'll be if there are proxy wars going on the region, but I thought that Jordan mostly kept out of that?
Yeah, my colleague has booked flights to Jordan at the end of the February for the family trip today, so was wondering the same?
 

2cents

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@2cents or others with some insight: will this also affect Jordan? I'm supposed to be there at the end of March, I just realised - not sure how keen I'll be if there are proxy wars going on the region, but I thought that Jordan mostly kept out of that?
Yeah, my colleague has booked flights to Jordan at the end of the February for the family trip today, so was wondering the same?
Enjoy Jordan, it’s a great country to visit as a tourist and it’s extremely unlikely that the brewing conflict will spill over there.