that's amazing!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
5% higher than UK. Not sure about Hubei province. Still, 10% is disproportionate I feel no matter the demographic.
It depends on the country.
Any nation that's currently seeing hoarding of toilet paper or full stadiums at sporting events is probably full of idiots who don't know what's good for them. For those nations, lockdown is a one-time deal.
I think the UK government will likely reopen old unused buildings for additional space to cope with the demand.
That's what Peru are doing. The athletes village from last year's pan American games which holds 2000 will be utilised.
That's what Peru are doing. The athletes village from last year's pan American games which holds 2000 will be utilised.
Has anyone seen any info on how infectious this is is, does it compare to the common cold for example or is it more infectious?
Also might be time for a thread name change @Damien calling this the Wuhan Virus feels outdated and wrong
Also might be time for a thread name change @Damien calling this the Wuhan Virus feels outdated and wrong
Should we rename Spanish flu WW2.1 flu?
You're expecting a good plan that results in a good outcome.
That's not gonna happen anywhere.
The UK is the only nation that's been willing to accept that every outcome is going to bad. But the people in charge are willing to put their necks on the line to implement a strategy that's least bad - even though it might personally reflect badly on them by making them seem callous.
This is an example of the trolley problem writ large. The UK is choosing a course of action that causes fewer deaths but more directable blame.
It's got R0 of around 2.4 where as flu is 1.3.
You can find more information here.
https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number
If we got quarantined for 2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months, thats fine with me....
If idiots want to break their curfew because they're 'ard' then let them.
Thats how I feel anyway
If idiots want to break their curfew because they're 'ard' then let them.
Thats how I feel anyway
Yup we should call it soldado de napoles like the Spanish did!
Thank you
We’ll have the highest death rate with this current plan.
Intensive care almost finished in Lombardy, only 14 place remained
Also, as it's been noted a few times on here, a few different places have found what could be a potential vaccine, which can take up to a year to get to the public.
What are the measures and tests they need to do.
Lets say they give it to somebody tomorrow, and it works, then what? I get we'd have to see how it reacts with the person, but how long do you need to keep tabs on this person before it gets the green light
What are the measures and tests they need to do.
Lets say they give it to somebody tomorrow, and it works, then what? I get we'd have to see how it reacts with the person, but how long do you need to keep tabs on this person before it gets the green light
Leisure centres, schools etc. Can see even army barracks being opened if shit really hits the fan.
Should be prosecuted. I'd have no problem with draconian measures.
The computer modelling and the science suggests otherwise.
Like I said, it seems counter-intuitive. But there is rationale behind it.
That's horrific. The CFR is going go spike big time now. It's devastating. I'm actually begging to panic over this.
Time will tell. I’m pretty confident this ‘plan’ will change.
They're onto tinned tomatoes and vegetable oils now. We've been laughing at doomsday preppers for years but they were ahead of the game.[/QUOTE]
Exactly.... It's mental that people would want to do this, in a time like this.
I'd happily sit in for however long they asked me..
Hell, quitting my job and sitting at home has crossed my mind
Human trials usually take years, but for this I think the regulators will allow them to get away with a slightly less thorough trial process (still easily the best part of a year).
Well about 200 mathematicians just submitted an open letter to the government telling them they're heading into abyss with their eyes closed. Tories are picking their fecking 'experts'. Somehow I don't feel like being in an experiment run by a party I didn't vote for.
The UK's computer modelling and science says otherwise. What about the computer modelling and science other countries seem to be following? Presumably theirs is telling them something else?
That's great for you, but I'm not in that position. I have to work or everything goes.Exactly.... It's mental that people would want to do this, in a time like this.
I'd happily sit in for however long they asked me..
Hell, quitting my job and sitting at home has crossed my mind
People seem to forget that happily sitting at home collecting pittance on sick pay simply isn't an option for everyone.
We're fecked, people are out every night on Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook partying and getting their pictures in with faces pressed against each other, no regard for anything.
They'll be the clowns posting "RIP Mam and Dad" with a load of crying emojis in a few weeks.
This is the first time in human (or at least modern) history when it's actually beneficial to live in a dictatorship state and you're told exactly what to do with harsh punishment if you don't comply.
The risk is that the vaccine might make things worse, and then the vaccinated would then be more vulnerable. For this a series of tests is done. Typically they start on cell cultures, continue in animals, then in a few people, then in tens of people, and finally in thousands of people when some instead get placebo vaccines in order to really understand if the vaccines are effective or not.
Typically it takes a few years to do so, but considering the emergency of the situation it will probably take much less.
Also, we are lucky for the advancement of science. A vaccine will likely be synthetic and can be done fast. Some natural vaccines need to be done in embryos of eggs, and can take up to 2 years to be produced. This will likely take less longer, but mass production will be a problem, so I wonder who will get it first.
Seen it said earlier that if schools close that 1 in 4 NHS staff are going to be struggling to go to work due to childcare issues. This is surely the real reason for the lack of action taken. We simply can't afford to lose 1/4 of the workforce which is already not big enough due to vacancies. When the other 3/4's start getting the virus it doesn't leave us with a lot does it?
Very few people can see it.
So you don't know. And, from your answer I guess no one knows too, right? (For anyone following, the question was "Poverty will kill millions more before their healthy life expectancy.")
Now think for a moment, you can't even give me a guess estimate on that number of deaths, let alone use them to make a comparison.
And yet you seem to admit as potentially viable, that a public health strategy on an international emmergency, can be based on that.
I can guarantee you that policy won't hold much longer anyway. One of three will happen quickly:
1- The government will backdown and do as everyone else, not explaining why.
2- Doctors and nurses will run to the press and social media exerct pressure, which will lead to government backing down reactively
3- As people start to die in numbers, the population itself will auto-enforce quarantine whether the government wants them to or not.
If I was from the UK I'd really want 1 or 2 to happen quickly. 3 causes much less damage if you plan ahead for it (essential logistics, social responses - sick leaves (how will they have to change to cope)) than if you don't.
For people saying that the quarantine and curfew wouldn't work for a prolonged period of time, I'm not so sure about that. There is a lot of calls on twitter to close the pubs from a younger demographic. There is a lot of responsible people out there. Couple that with tough measures for breaking lockdown rules, we'll get through it. I'd rather save as many people as possible then worry about what impact it will have on economy. Economy is fecked either way.
Sure, I've long suspected that only the UK followed computer modelling and science. As you say, criticisms coming from so called experts outside the country are nothing more than the primitive howls of heathens that are too chicken to accept reality.
Found this on another Irish forum but it could equally apply to Britain:
From facebook, it wouldn't let me post the screenshots, the numbers are conservative and very very scary.
WHY IRELAND IS IN TROUBLE
Lads,
I've been reading about this virus since January, and like most people, I was cracking jokes about it and did not take it seriously at all. That changed completely when someone explained the numbers to me and explained why we in Ireland in particular are in trouble. I have not stopped thinking about it since. You may not think that we are in trouble based on the number of confirmed cases so far, but we are.
I'm going to write this to you in an effort to explain what the **** is actually going on and hopefully help in the effort. A lot of people are ringing me and asking me if I know anything on the inside. I don't know much more than what is in the news, but I have probably spotted some of the important stuff that you may have missed.
I've been tracking the numbers and confirmed cases in Ireland have been growing by 30% a day on average, which means the number of cases doubles every 2-3 days. Based on those trends, and without the shutdown, there would be 100,000 confirmed cases within a month.
But the situation is actually much worse. Based on what happened in China and Italy, the actual number of cases in Ireland is almost certainly in the thousands already. The problem is that with this virus, you can have it, not have any symptoms, and still be infecting everyone around you before you feel sick. The Government knows this. That is why they shut the country down.
On the international numbers, over 90% of cases will recover. But 9% will be seriously ill, and about 5% will require intensive care (ICU) and at least 2.5% will need ventilators.
The Government has said between 25% and 75% of the population will get the virus. If 25% of the Irish population get it, which based on the numbers above is a very low estimate, that's 1.2 million people.
5% needing intensive care means 60,000 people will need intensive care beds to stay alive.
We currently have 277 intensive care beds in Ireland.
I'm going to say that again:
At least 60,000 Irish people will need an ICU bed to stay alive.
We only have 277 ICU beds in Ireland.
If too many people get sick in a short space of time, many, many Irish men and women are going to die when they could have been saved. Ireland is a small country. This is going to be someone in your family or someone you know. Or their mother. Or their father.
The staff in ICU wards know the numbers. Their representative body released a statement on Thursday, which was in the Irish Times, saying that they know that they are going to be making choices on who gets an ICU bed or who gets a ventilator. They said they will be making "challenging decisions". I'll translate that: It means the staff are going to be deciding who lives and who dies.
It has been happening in Italy already, and Italy has much better ICU care than we do. In terms of cases, we are 2 weeks behind Italy. The older you are, the less likely they are going to try to save you. Don't think this only applies to over 70s. If you are over 40, and need ICU, but a 30 year old also needs it, chances are the 30 year old will get it and you will die. If that doesn't scare you, you don't fully understand it.
It is absolutely nuts, but this is what is going to happen.
If we can lower the number of cases AT A SINGLE POINT IN TIME, we lower the number of people needing intensive care AT A SINGLE POINT IN TIME, then we free up more ICU beds, and we lower the number of Irish people who die in Irish hospitals. It is that simple.
This could be someone close to you. Your mam. Your dad. Your partner. Your granny. Your granddad. Your brother. Your sister. Your aunt. Your uncle. Your neighbour. Your friend.
You do not want any of them dying because there was not enough ventilators or ICU beds to go around. It will not be the fault of the ICU staff. If you want to blame someone for that, blame years of governments giving tax cuts instead of investing in the health service.
If you are furious even thinking of the idea of your loved ones dead in a coffin because a doctor thinks they are too old or are not strong enough, and giving a bed to someone who is a bit younger, then good, you are right to be. You will also be more willing to listen to what you need to do next to help stop that happening:
STAY THE **** AT HOME AND ONLY GO OUT IF YOU NEED FOOD.
Watch Netflix. Read a book. Binge on a TV series. Go on Youtube. Eat food. Learn to cook. Learn to sew. Write a book. Do a diary. Figure out your life. Do press ups. Do sit ups. Do chin ups. Do zumba dancing. Do an online course in astronomy. Or Yoga. Or sports management. Or whatever the **** you want.
Do whatever the **** you want. You have absolutely no excuse not to keep yourself entertained at home.
Do not go for pints. Do not have a house party. Do not go to a house party. Do not go for coffee. Do not go for a meal. Do not go for a chat. Do not visit your auntie. Do not visit your parents. Do not bring the kids over to their friends. Do not let friends come over to you.
If you absolutely have to get out of the house, go for a walk on your own or with someone you are living with. But in general:
STAY THE **** AT HOME UNTIL THE NUMBER OF CASES STARTS COMING DOWN.
If you want to be a hero in this, and want to save lives, but don't know what to do, stay the **** at home.
P.S: The Brits are making a balls of it again and are not staying at home. Lots of them are going to die because they are not staying at home. Don't be like the Brits. Stay at home.
P.P.S: The more people who understand what is going on, the better. So send it on to whoever you think would benefit from it.
From facebook, it wouldn't let me post the screenshots, the numbers are conservative and very very scary.
WHY IRELAND IS IN TROUBLE
Lads,
I've been reading about this virus since January, and like most people, I was cracking jokes about it and did not take it seriously at all. That changed completely when someone explained the numbers to me and explained why we in Ireland in particular are in trouble. I have not stopped thinking about it since. You may not think that we are in trouble based on the number of confirmed cases so far, but we are.
I'm going to write this to you in an effort to explain what the **** is actually going on and hopefully help in the effort. A lot of people are ringing me and asking me if I know anything on the inside. I don't know much more than what is in the news, but I have probably spotted some of the important stuff that you may have missed.
I've been tracking the numbers and confirmed cases in Ireland have been growing by 30% a day on average, which means the number of cases doubles every 2-3 days. Based on those trends, and without the shutdown, there would be 100,000 confirmed cases within a month.
But the situation is actually much worse. Based on what happened in China and Italy, the actual number of cases in Ireland is almost certainly in the thousands already. The problem is that with this virus, you can have it, not have any symptoms, and still be infecting everyone around you before you feel sick. The Government knows this. That is why they shut the country down.
On the international numbers, over 90% of cases will recover. But 9% will be seriously ill, and about 5% will require intensive care (ICU) and at least 2.5% will need ventilators.
The Government has said between 25% and 75% of the population will get the virus. If 25% of the Irish population get it, which based on the numbers above is a very low estimate, that's 1.2 million people.
5% needing intensive care means 60,000 people will need intensive care beds to stay alive.
We currently have 277 intensive care beds in Ireland.
I'm going to say that again:
At least 60,000 Irish people will need an ICU bed to stay alive.
We only have 277 ICU beds in Ireland.
If too many people get sick in a short space of time, many, many Irish men and women are going to die when they could have been saved. Ireland is a small country. This is going to be someone in your family or someone you know. Or their mother. Or their father.
The staff in ICU wards know the numbers. Their representative body released a statement on Thursday, which was in the Irish Times, saying that they know that they are going to be making choices on who gets an ICU bed or who gets a ventilator. They said they will be making "challenging decisions". I'll translate that: It means the staff are going to be deciding who lives and who dies.
It has been happening in Italy already, and Italy has much better ICU care than we do. In terms of cases, we are 2 weeks behind Italy. The older you are, the less likely they are going to try to save you. Don't think this only applies to over 70s. If you are over 40, and need ICU, but a 30 year old also needs it, chances are the 30 year old will get it and you will die. If that doesn't scare you, you don't fully understand it.
It is absolutely nuts, but this is what is going to happen.
If we can lower the number of cases AT A SINGLE POINT IN TIME, we lower the number of people needing intensive care AT A SINGLE POINT IN TIME, then we free up more ICU beds, and we lower the number of Irish people who die in Irish hospitals. It is that simple.
This could be someone close to you. Your mam. Your dad. Your partner. Your granny. Your granddad. Your brother. Your sister. Your aunt. Your uncle. Your neighbour. Your friend.
You do not want any of them dying because there was not enough ventilators or ICU beds to go around. It will not be the fault of the ICU staff. If you want to blame someone for that, blame years of governments giving tax cuts instead of investing in the health service.
If you are furious even thinking of the idea of your loved ones dead in a coffin because a doctor thinks they are too old or are not strong enough, and giving a bed to someone who is a bit younger, then good, you are right to be. You will also be more willing to listen to what you need to do next to help stop that happening:
STAY THE **** AT HOME AND ONLY GO OUT IF YOU NEED FOOD.
Watch Netflix. Read a book. Binge on a TV series. Go on Youtube. Eat food. Learn to cook. Learn to sew. Write a book. Do a diary. Figure out your life. Do press ups. Do sit ups. Do chin ups. Do zumba dancing. Do an online course in astronomy. Or Yoga. Or sports management. Or whatever the **** you want.
Do whatever the **** you want. You have absolutely no excuse not to keep yourself entertained at home.
Do not go for pints. Do not have a house party. Do not go to a house party. Do not go for coffee. Do not go for a meal. Do not go for a chat. Do not visit your auntie. Do not visit your parents. Do not bring the kids over to their friends. Do not let friends come over to you.
If you absolutely have to get out of the house, go for a walk on your own or with someone you are living with. But in general:
STAY THE **** AT HOME UNTIL THE NUMBER OF CASES STARTS COMING DOWN.
If you want to be a hero in this, and want to save lives, but don't know what to do, stay the **** at home.
P.S: The Brits are making a balls of it again and are not staying at home. Lots of them are going to die because they are not staying at home. Don't be like the Brits. Stay at home.
P.P.S: The more people who understand what is going on, the better. So send it on to whoever you think would benefit from it.
More than 200 scientists in the UK disagreed with ‘the science’ today. And pretty much every scientist outside of UK is disagreeing with ‘the science’.
Why are you making this like ‘the science says so’ where almost every scientist is saying your are lunatics’ is beyond my understanding.
Thanks for the explanation.
Unfortunately you’ve got feck all to do with it. None of us have. Whilst we can dislike politicians and parties more than one another on our own personal agendas and beliefs, 99% of the country would be horrendous leaders trying to do the right moral thing at all times. Save everyone. Spend all the money. Listen to the voters.
For once maybe it would be worth just doing as we’re advised and not having an uneducated opinion that leads to division in every aspect of life.
Exactly. As always, it’s the boomers that are the problem.
I know, this is what seems to be missing in any explanation of how just 'sitting at home for as long as it takes' is viable, I'd lose my house and not be able to feed my kids pretty quickly.
Please be positive, stay at home and avoid unnecessary socialization. You will be ok.We're f*cked.
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