The dominos that will fall because of Covid-19

[Revan]

Italexit would arguably be more disastrous than Brexit but I can see the eurosceptics using this to push for a referendum on membership.

The EU is going to have to work a lot hard to maintain itself because the Russians and Chinese will attack any weakness

Italian constitution does not allow a referendum on memberships. Though if this leads to a big win of Lega, then they might decide to put a vote in the parliament about it.

 

[Revan]

I was saying that the other day, Donald Trump is actually the perfect President for the USA in 2020 because he personifies the current state of the country and how they are viewed globally. Brash, arrogant/overly confident, vain, full of big words and big claims but nothing to back it up. They are definitely, like us, a fading power.

They still have by far the most powerful military, and the largest economy. Also, when US really mobilizes, they put the others to shame.

I would much rather prefer being in their sphere of influence rather than China’s or Russia’s.

 

[Revan]

I actually wonder if it could be the real end of the EU, never mind Brexit. Unthinkable to say a month ago but a lot has changed in the world since then. Italy already knows but i expect other countries will find out how 'together' Europe really is once this is over.

China sent us people and equipment. Now Russia is too. We haven't had as much as a face mask from the rest of Europe.

The rest of Europe are in the same trouble as Italy. It is like criticizing Italy for not helping Spain or France.

 

[11101]

The rest of Europe are in the same trouble as Italy. It is like criticizing Italy for not helping Spain or France.

This all happened at the beginning of the outbreak when you could still count the cases in other countries on one hand.

Germany in particular, their response to the aid request was to block all exports of medical equipment.

 

[Revan]

This all happened at the beginning of the outbreak when you could still count the cases in other countries on one hand.

Germany in particular, their response to the aid request was to block all exports of medical equipment.

Germany actually had cases before Italy. Just that they either had a better response or just were lucky. In any case, anyone with half a brain knew what was coming, so it is not surprising that countries started being prepared for this and couldn't help the others.

 

[Irwin99]

I read a book a few years back about the end of the bronze age civilisations (1187 BC) and how one of the first globalised economies (obviously on a much smaller scale) collapsed with a domino effect. One of the frightening things about Covid 19 is that it's come around at this point where world affairs are already very tense and global warming and immigration concerns are getting worse and worse. The best thing to hope for is that when the situation calms down (months/or a year from now) that people come up with new ideas and new ways of thinking about these problems. Going back to the same systems isn't going to cut it I don't think.

 

[sun_tzu]

I actually wonder if it could be the real end of the EU, never mind Brexit. Unthinkable to say a month ago but a lot has changed in the world since then. Italy already knows but i expect other countries will find out how 'together' Europe really is once this is over.

Germans funding a Greek / Italian bailout whilst the German economy is booming in the interest of European unity is one thing... How the electorate in Germany would (will?) react to bailing them out if Germany was in a deep recession could be a far bigger test of the EU project than brexit

 

[Atze-Peng]

This will probably be the historical event that convinces humans they have to cooperate more in the future.

If anything, the exact opposite is happening and was very obvious from the get-go. Our utopian dream of everyone loves everyone and equality and open borders and whatnot was always doomed to fail the moment there will be ressource-sparcity. Medical treatment and staff right now is the limiting factor. So are several goods in markets.

And suddenly humanities instinct kicks in and the in-group bias increases. This was always bound to happen when something legit serious (famine, war, economical collapse) is happening.

Germany actually had cases before Italy. Just that they either had a better response or just were lucky. In any case, anyone with half a brain knew what was coming, so it is not surprising that countries started being prepared for this and couldn't help the others.

I think it's a combination of three things. First even if our Healthcare is by no means perfect, I dare to say it's still better than the italian one. Secondly germans are a lot more socially distant than italians by cultural standards (no cheek-kisses and stuff). And thirdly it seems like we got lucky having the lesser threatening mutation spread over the more aggressive one (this is more of an assumption, but considering the deathcount to infection rate it seems highly probable)

 

[Raoul]

If anything, the exact opposite is happening and was very obvious from the get-go. Our utopian dream of everyone loves everyone and equality and open borders and whatnot was always doomed to fail the moment there will be ressource-sparcity. Medical treatment and staff right now is the limiting factor. So are several goods in markets.

And suddenly humanities instinct kicks in and the in-group bias increases. This was always bound to happen when something legit serious (famine, war, economical collapse) is happening.

I'm talking long term, not in the present when the pandemonium and anxiety has set in. Thinking more 20-30 years from now when we are in a more advanced stage of international cooperation.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

First McDonalds, now Dominoes. It's a fecking joke.

 

[Wibble]

Canada has pulled out of the Tokyo Olympics and Australia just told their athletes they won't be going so presumably they will withdraw soon. Others will follow and it will force a postponement or cancellation soon I'd guess.

 

[Atze-Peng]

I'm talking long term, not in the present when the pandemonium and anxiety has set in. Thinking more 20-30 years from now when we are in a more advanced stage of international cooperation.

Yeah, no. If anything, I think this is making people realise the disadvantages of globalisation and the necessity for countries to be as self-reliant as possible rather than outsourcing their work to cheaper labour (which would also save a lot of CO2) as well as having reasonable borders. The dependancy of countries among each other and the high fluctuation of people inbetween them is what is causing this issue currently.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah, no. If anything, I think this is making people realise the disadvantages of globalisation and the necessity for countries to be as self-reliant as possible rather than outsourcing their work to cheaper labour (which would also save a lot of CO2) as well as having reasonable borders. The dependancy of countries among each other and the high fluctuation of people inbetween them is what is causing this issue currently.

Globalization won't be reversed, in fact it will become more entrenched since the international economy is interdependent and will require greater levels of cooperation to create safeguards to prevent this sort of things from happening again. We aren't just going to scamper back into our own nations and hope for the best.

 

[Grinner]

This is all a Bezos plot to keep us inside and order from Amazon

 

[Atze-Peng]

Globalization won't be reversed, in fact it will become more entrenched since the international economy is interdependent and will require greater levels of cooperation to create safeguards to prevent this sort of things from happening again. We aren't just going to scamper back into our own nations and hope for the best.

Yet, all we are seeing is the exact opposite. Countries suddenly closing their borders, keeping their own production lines to themselves and essentially putting their own asses first and not those of others. It's like you are assuming humanity suddenly doing the exact opposite of what they have done over the last centuries whenever things got rough. A very questionable conclusion to make.

 

[Raoul]

Yet, all we are seeing is the exact opposite. Countries suddenly closing their borders, keeping their own production lines to themselves and essentially putting their own asses first and not those of others. It's like you are assuming humanity suddenly doing the exact opposite of what they have done over the last centuries whenever things got rough. A very questionable conclusion to make.

That's why I said - not in the present - but rather 20-30 years from now when we aren't in the middle of a pandemic or migration crisis. Humans have never communicated across international boundaries as much as they do in the present and that will only grow in the future, which will create incredible pressure to modulate the rules and norms by which our social structures operate. The current situation is merely the latest independent variable that will push us in that direction.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Canada has pulled out of the Tokyo Olympics and Australia just told their athletes they won't be going so presumably they will withdraw soon. Others will follow and it will force a postponement or cancellation soon I'd guess.

When Russia was banned from the Olympics, my elderly neighbour said immediately, 'Putin will retaliate for this'...

He was absolutely adamant that Putin was too proud to be 'shamed' like that and not strike back in some way.

Safe to presume his theory on where Coronavirus really originated from!

 

[Atze-Peng]

That's why I said - not in the present - but rather 20-30 years from now when we aren't in the middle of a pandemic or migration crisis. Humans have never communicated across international boundaries as much as they do in the present and that will only grow in the future, which will create incredible pressure to modulate the rules and norms by which our social structures operate. The current situation is merely the latest independent variable that will push us in that direction.

Can you explain me why you think the logical conclusion of all this will be more dependancy on each other? I really can't see any proper argument for this other than naivety. So I may be missing something, or ... you know.

 

[Oo0AahCantona]

There is absolutely 0 argument against an American UBI in the future now, have you seen the Feds spending stimulus plans? absolutely ridiculous. Money printer go BRRRRRR.

 

[Raoul]

Can you explain me why you think the logical conclusion of all this will be more dependancy on each other? I really can't see any proper argument for this other than naivety. So I may be missing something, or ... you know.

We are already more dependent on one another now than ever before (complex interdependence/economic interdependence). This was already case decades ago and is only growing stronger as power diffuses from the state to the global level. New rules, norms, cultures are created and this causes pressure on all participants to come to agreements on how to deal with global crises. Not just pandemics, but nuclear proliferation/war, resource scarcity, reducing fossil fuel consumption, etc. States are going away and everything is being driven by technology. The calamitous, fragmented reaction to the Virus is only the latest in a litany of examples that will put pressure on humans to collaborate more - to mitigate future global risk.

 

[Jaqen H'ghar]

Yet, all we are seeing is the exact opposite. Countries suddenly closing their borders, keeping their own production lines to themselves and essentially putting their own asses first and not those of others. It's like you are assuming humanity suddenly doing the exact opposite of what they have done over the last centuries whenever things got rough. A very questionable conclusion to make.

Extreme circumstances call for extreme measures.

Countries are closing borders, and also imposing lock downs and curfews. You're not arguing these will be mainstays of life after the crisis are you.

It's not logical to extroplate from the panic response we are seeing now and assume that this is what things will look like after the crisis. This thread is for guessing, but to even get that right you'd need to look at the bigger picture rather than focus on a detail.

 

[MackRobinson]

This is all a Bezos plot to keep us inside and order from Amazon

It's working.

 

[Carolina Red]

I read a book a few years back about the end of the bronze age civilisations (1187 BC) and how one of the first globalised economies (obviously on a much smaller scale) collapsed with a domino effect. One of the frightening things about Covid 19 is that it's come around at this point where world affairs are already very tense and global warming and immigration concerns are getting worse and worse. The best thing to hope for is that when the situation calms down (months/or a year from now) that people come up with new ideas and new ways of thinking about these problems. Going back to the same systems isn't going to cut it I don't think.

Was it “1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed”?

 

[Irwin99]

Was it “1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed”?

That’s the one.

 

[africanspur]

Putin sending Russian military medics into Italy @11101 says there’s growing resentment in Italy against the EU because of their reaction to the Covid-19 outbreak in Italy. Looks to be pretty politically loaded from Putin.

Very much so. Even Egypt @2cents has bafflingly sent supplies, which has gathered a lot of criticism there.

The EU is in a difficult situation here because while its a federation, despite what some prominent Brexiteers think, it is still a group of nations, rather than states who also have a centralised overall leader like the USA.

I'd be interested in the difference in response in the USA for example. Have individual states been helping each other out? Or is it kind of every state for themselves, with the federal government overseeing the overall response?

 

[Carolina Red]

That’s the one.

You’re right, it’s a cool book. If you liked it, read Collapse by Jared Diamond.

 

[Irwin99]

You’re right, it’s a cool book. If you liked it, read Collapse by Jared Diamond.

Just googled it. Looks interesting. Thanks.

 

[Atze-Peng]

We are already more dependent on one another now than ever before (complex interdependence/economic interdependence). This was already case decades ago and is only growing stronger as power diffuses from the state to the global level. New rules, norms, cultures are created and this causes pressure on all participants to come to agreements on how to deal with global crises. Not just pandemics, but nuclear proliferation/war, resource scarcity, reducing fossil fuel consumption, etc. States are going away and everything is being driven by technology. The calamitous, fragmented reaction to the Virus is only the latest in a litany of examples that will put pressure on humans to collaborate more - to mitigate future global risk.

You aren't answering my quesiton. You are simply saying what you think will happen, but you aren't reasoning why it will happen like you are saying. My question is not what you think will happen as you said it multiple times, but WHY you think this will be the conclusion to make when everything we are doing right now is the exact opposite. WHY do you think mankind will think in 10-20 years "Hey, remember that pandemic and how it caused us so much struggle due to our intertwined world? Let's intertwine it even more this time around".

(Not to mention that all these limitations of travel and connections right now is the one thing that seems to make us able to reach our CO2 goals, because we aren't shipping goods all over the world anymore - same would happen if countries started producing their stuff as much as possible regionally.)

Extreme circumstances call for extreme measures.

Countries are closing borders, and also imposing lock downs and curfews. You're not arguing these will be mainstays of life after the crisis are you.

It's not logical to extroplate from the panic response we are seeing now and assume that this is what things will look like after the crisis. This thread is for guessing, but to even get that right you'd need to look at the bigger picture rather than focus on a detail.

Of course it is not logical to extrapolate from extreme situations. But it is logical to build up a system that takes into consideration that such extreme situations can occur. If we end up intertwined our world even more, next time such a thing happens, the outbreak will be even worse. So my question was how someone gets to the logical conclusion that is exactly what we are supposed to do after all this is set and done. It's like ignoring any worst-case scenario and assuming the world is pink cotton candy.

 

[Raoul]

You aren't answering my quesiton. You are simply saying what you think will happen, but you aren't reasoning why it will happen like you are saying. My question is not what you think will happen as you said it multiple times, but WHY you think this will be the conclusion to make when everything we are doing right now is the exact opposite. WHY do you think mankind will think in 10-20 years "Hey, remember that pandemic and how it caused us so much struggle due to our intertwined world? Let's intertwine it even more this time around".

The reasoning is implicit in all the independent variables I cited. Humans are innately inclined to seek stable end states in order to advance their mutual interests. Cooperating on how to prevent future global pandemics is merely one of a long list of areas where cooperation outweighs not-cooperating.

 

[Beachryan]

Somewhat interesting 'domino' in my industry (reinsurance): there are a couple of states that want to retroactively force pandemic coverage into your home property catastrophe insurance, I believe something might have been mooted in the UK too.

So essentially, even though the contract explicitly excludes pandemic (or includes a list of things that are covered, where pandemic isn't one) the government wants to force insurance companies to pay. The biggest issue would be around business continuity.

This would effectively just bankrupt the insurance industry, which I guess is politically a fun thing to do, but I'm not sure I understand the thinking. Next year there's no insurance for anyone for anything?Or government will just have to bail out the insurers.

 

[Gary_Walsh_Nou_Camp_Hell]

Somewhat interesting 'domino' in my industry (reinsurance): there are a couple of states that want to retroactively force pandemic coverage into your home property catastrophe insurance, I believe something might have been mooted in the UK too.

So essentially, even though the contract explicitly excludes pandemic (or includes a list of things that are covered, where pandemic isn't one) the government wants to force insurance companies to pay. The biggest issue would be around business continuity.

This would effectively just bankrupt the insurance industry, which I guess is politically a fun thing to do, but I'm not sure I understand the thinking. Next year there's no insurance for anyone for anything?Or government will just have to bail out the insurers.

I'm sure various insurance companies would quickly rise from the ashes to swoop up the huge money to be made.

 

[Beachryan]

I'm sure various insurance companies would quickly rise from the ashes to swoop up the huge money to be made.

Potentially. The trick with insurance is you need a massive balance sheet to support what you write. So if new players came in, they'd have to be like sovereign wealth funds or something similar.

Anyway, will be interesting to see - would get caught up in the courts for absolutely years, especially in the states where they're very sensitive to the government trying to do anything to private companies.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

The reasoning is implicit in all the independent variables I cited. Humans are innately inclined to seek stable end states in order to advance their mutual interests. Cooperating on how to prevent future global pandemics is merely one of a long list of areas where cooperation outweighs not-cooperating.

Exactly. Just like air travel we will use this experience to make the future safer and reduce the chance of this type of event occurring again.

 

[calodo2003]

Didn’t ever think about the potential severely degraded military capabilities of nations...

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/news.yah...at-sea-three-sailors-evacuated-214646927.html

 

[blue blue]

Maybe the world will boycott Chinese goods. Maybe the Chinese people will realise it was their authoritarian system of Government that caused so many Doctors to cover up the spread of Virus.

Maybe we will just work from home a bit more.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

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[Yik]

I would hope this helps the world powers to divert a portion of military spending towards public health/epidemic research and prevention. I find it absurd that the US spends hundreds of billions of dollars on military and military research to (unsuccessfully) fight Afghan farmers with AKs. Surely statistically there is more chance of another Covid-19 than a war with China or Russia in the next 20 years.

 

[Raoul]

I would hope this helps the world powers to divert a portion of military spending towards public health/epidemic research and prevention. I find it absurd that the US spends hundreds of billions of dollars on military and military research to (unsuccessfully) fight Afghan farmers with AKs. Surely statistically there is more chance of another Covid-19 than a war with China or Russia in the next 20 years.

The bulk of what is spent on defense is to maintain advantage against China and Russia. Can't see that doing anything other than growing in the future.

 

[Yik]

The bulk of what is spent on defense is to maintain advantage against China and Russia. Can't see that doing anything other than growing in the future.

Yes thats true. China more than Russia though. I don't think Russia is a serious threat other than their online trolling shenanigans.

Obviously in an ideal world the world powers, including China, make a decisive plan to empower and improve the WHO. It should be seen as just an important a thing as implementing the UN/League of nations was after the world wars. Though the UN is also quite useless, though thats another debate.

 

[Ian Reus]

A lot of the self employed or people who can't work from home who might be considered lower middle class will likely need to claim UC.

Once they see how hard it I'd to survive on very little, it could lead to an overhaul of the benefits system if boris wants to remain in charge.

The media didn't help this by pointing the finger at so called scroungers when the Tory party decided to strip away a good chunk of that over 10 years of austerity.