SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Grinner]

And Liberty University is now reporting over a dozen people with Covid symptoms.

Didn’t see that coming...

What does their science department say on the matter?

 

[Sarni]

About a week ago I saw estimates that 20% of those with Covid needed hospitalisation and of those 5-7% needed an ICU bed. Of course we don't really know how many people actually have it yet (as opposed to how many of those tested have it) but I would have thought that the 5-7% figure would have some basis in fact although of course things can vary from country to country depending in many factors.

Edit found the (or a) source:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...id-19-icu-beds-ventilators-hospitals/12090420
based on this paper
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Truth is nobody knows at this point unless we can say with confidence how many have it without any symptoms. Could be that you need to multiply the number of cases by 20 to get to correct number, could be that the amount of symptomless cases is small and the numbers are right. It’ll be a while before we know. Hopefully the former is true.

 

[4bars]

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[Wibble]

If they're comparing it to Swine Flu then they are taking it seriously!

Not really.

If they compared it to the devastation of the Spanish Flu than might be taking it more seriously.

 

[Amar__]

I don't know if this is a stupid question, but can people without symptoms even spread it? Surely if they aren't coughing, sneezing or being dirty pricks who don't pick their nose or mouth there is a small possibility that they actually even spread the virus in 14 days?

Edit: before anyone jumps, I don't think asymptomatic people should be "free" by any means, look at my previous post in this thread on that. Just asking genuine question that includes lots of ifs.

 

[Wibble]

Truth is nobody knows at this point unless we can say with confidence how many have it without any symptoms. Could be that you need to multiply the number of cases by 20 to get to correct number, could be that the amount of symptomless cases is small and the numbers are right. It’ll be a while before we know. Hopefully the former is true.

I think the % infected is a huge unknown so the percentage of infected needing hospital is also unknown but we should have a decent ballpark figure for what percentage of those hospitalised need ICU because we do know both of those numbers.

And yes - hopefully the vast majority are symptom free or only get minor cold like symptoms.

Having got pneumonia once (in retrospect possibly during the 2009 swine flu outbreak) and only not being hospitalised because I had a business to run from bed (yes I am an idiot with my health) I REALLY don't want those types of symptoms again.

 

[Dr. StrangeHate]

Yeah ok I get that but I think the unknown results of lifting the lockdown at the moment outweigh the current benefits, which as others have said allows time to prepare the health services and tries to keep the numbers needed hospitalisation manageable.

Even with lockdown Ireland are near if not at capacity for ICU beds.

It would be nice if we were only able to ensure the young and healthy were infected but how do you manage that?

A month long swinger session organised in stadiums across the country with only young people invited. There, COVID defeated.

 

[Carolina Red]

What does their science department say on the matter?

Now there’s the million dollar question. The way Liberty is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve got creationists in the bio department

 

[The Cat]

I don't know if this is a stupid question, but can people without symptoms even spread it? Surely if they aren't coughing, sneezing or being dirty pricks who don't pick their nose or mouth there is a small possibility that they actually even spread the virus in 14 days?

Edit: before anyone jumps, I don't think asymptomatic people should be "free" by any means, look at my previous post in this thread on that. Just asking genuine question that includes lots of ifs.

Couldn't droplets be sent out from talking maybe? Especially shouting.

 

[FootballHQ]

feck. I am in limerick.

Dublin expected to get bad in the next week to ten days they say.

Cheltenham fest going ahead was such a ridiculous move.

 

[nimic]

Not really.

If they compared it to the devastation of the Spanish Flu than might be taking it more seriously.

For societal impact, maybe (though the Spanish Flu was sort of overshadowed by the First World War, as far as global events go). The mortality rate is probably considerably lower. Though of course there's more of us now.

And actually, the Spanish Flu was the H1N1 virus too, so you're both right!

Either way this is going to go deep into the zeitgeist. It's certainly the most disruptive event for Norway since WW2.

 

[Sarni]

I think the % infected is a huge unknown so the percentage of infected needing hospital is also unknown but we should have a decent ballpark figure for what percentage of those hospitalised need ICU because we do know both of those numbers.

And yes - hopefully the vast majority are symptom free or only get minor cold like symptoms.

Having got pneumonia once (in retrospect possibly during the 2009 swine flu outbreak) and only not being hospitalised because I had a business to run from bed (yes I am an idiot with my health) I REALLY don't want those types of symptoms again.

Yep ICU out of hospitalized will be a good figure already.

 

[Wibble]

I don't know if this is a stupid question, but can people without symptoms even spread it? Surely if they aren't coughing, sneezing or being dirty pricks who don't pick their nose or mouth there is a small possibility that they actually even spread the virus in 14 days?

The primary method of spread is almost certainly droplets from coughs and sneezing (rare symptom with Covid-19) with aerosol and contact infections being much rarer BUT still highly important to protect against.

In terms of asymptomatic people being infectious I think it is safe to say they are even if they are less of a risk due to not coughing but they will also be more likely to be out and about shopping etc during which they can touch things and potentially infect others.

 

[Wibble]

For societal impact, maybe (though the Spanish Flu was sort of overshadowed by the First World War, as far as global events go). The mortality rate is probably considerably lower. Though of course there's more of us now.

And actually, the Spanish Flu was the H1N1 virus too, so you're both right!

But we had immunity to some degree the second time around in 2009. That said the Spanish Flu may have killed so many due to the poor and crowded conditions but it seems likely that the lack of immunity played a big part.

 

[Shane88]

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1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

 

[Sarni]

1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

Italy and Spain are near that. I’d be surprised if US are not double that at some point.

 

[dwd]

1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

It won’t be.

People will have forgotten about it in two weeks.

 

[Brwned]

Thanks.

I doubt this applies to Europe though. I think (am happy to be corrected on this) that China hospitalized a far greater share of diagnosed cases, even assymptomatic ones (for isolation purposes). They never lost control of the situation outside Wuhan.

@fergieisold says we should assume 100% of cases are being hospitalized in England. You can't assume that, you either know or you don't. If that's currently true, I assure you it will not be the case in a couple of weeks.

Yeah there's all sorts of measurement errors and country variations so it's hard to tell exact figures, but it seems possible it's in the single digits. On Worldometer they have the global number of critical cases as 5%, but I can't corroborate the UK figures so no idea if any of them are accurate. This is the latest report on UK cases in critical care but it's difficult to figure out the coverage. Supposedly it's "all" confirmed cases reported by all participants in the CMP, which is nearly every critical care unit in the UK. If around 1/2 of people in critical care are dying, then you could estimate there's been 2450 critical cases from the 19,522 total (12.5%). In any case, it's significantly bigger than the number on Worldometer.

They were a little murky about the details but these were the ballpark figures from NY 10 days ago:

Generally, about 20 percent of coronavirus patients require hospitalization, with about a quarter of those needing to be put on a mechanical ventilator machine to help them breathe. Statewide, more than 1,200 people have been hospitalized with the virus, according to Mr. Cuomo’s office. About 170 patients were in intensive care units in city hospitals, according to the city.

And more recently the figures were:

As of Friday afternoon, there were 5,250 hospitalizations in New York City due to coronavirus with 1,175 in the ICU.

So it definitely varies and I suspect the biggest factor in that is as the number of critical cases rise, more and more mild cases are turned away from hospitalisation (like some folks on here from the NHS have said they've done). Hard to generalise in that sense.

Iceland have used the broadest testing we know of and they have 1,020 infections, 25 hospitalised and 9 in intensive care.

 

[NotworkSte]

Now there’s the million dollar question. The way Liberty is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve got creationists in the bio department

I laughed because there is no way they have a bio program. Then I checked and they do!
There’s a fella from Northern Ireland I know is a flight instructor there.

 

[Verminator]

I don't know if this is a stupid question, but can people without symptoms even spread it? Surely if they aren't coughing, sneezing or being dirty pricks who don't pick their nose or mouth there is a small possibility that they actually even spread the virus in 14 days?

Edit: before anyone jumps, I don't think asymptomatic people should be "free" by any means, look at my previous post in this thread on that. Just asking genuine question that includes lots of ifs.

If it is air borne, I doubt if it will just be coughing and sneezing.
To see what you normally can't see, people's breath, watch cold weather breathing or vaping videos.
Moist breath travel more than you may think.

 

[golden_blunder]

@golden_blunder where are you, somewhere in Blanch?

Yep, blanch area. Mulhuddart

 

[Prometheus]

Global research on coronavirus 2019.

 

[Prometheus]

Truth is nobody knows at this point unless we can say with confidence how many have it without any symptoms. Could be that you need to multiply the number of cases by 20 to get to correct number, could be that the amount of symptomless cases is small and the numbers are right. It’ll be a while before we know. Hopefully the former is true.

We don't know the exact number, but scientists have been trying to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases since the beginning, and almost all say it's less than 1/3 of patients (most of them are in the link I've posted above). [The media has been running the Oxford story as a feel good narrative, but they clearly state they just wanted to model what would happen if only 0.1% of infected people get very sick].

 

[sullydnl]

1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

100,000 - 200,000 deaths was Fauci's estimate earlier today, albeit while also saying such predictions can so easily be wrong.

 

[christy87]

Supposedly at least 5 houses in our estate have had medics in hazmat suits removing people.
I am not leaving the fecking house

A nursing home where a friend of my mam works in has possibly been infected after one of the carer's came in for OT after being off all week with the "flu", this carer hasn't been seen since the OT which was last weekend my mams friend is in isolation now, but her husband has cancer. If it's positive there will be a lot of deaths.

 

[McGrathsipan]

Yep, blanch area. Mulhuddart

Like Tyrrelstown or Hollystown?
My mother's in Clonsilla

 

[sullydnl]

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This seems a good, practical idea.

 

[NotworkSte]

Meanwhile in Tampa...
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/fl...fter-pastor-promises-he-can-cure-coronavirus/
Apparently they think they have 13 machines they kills every virus. Last miracle device I saw bought off the Internet was Uncle Rico and his time machine.

Not just religious idiots either. Tampa riverwalk and Davis Island park were packed today.

 

[nimic]

It won’t be.

People will have forgotten about it in two weeks.

What do you mean?

 

[stevoc]

Meanwhile in Tampa...
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/fl...fter-pastor-promises-he-can-cure-coronavirus/
Apparently they think they have 13 machines they kills every virus. Last miracle device I saw bought off the Internet was Uncle Rico and his time machine.

Not just religious idiots either. Tampa riverwalk and Davis Island park were packed today.

Con men like that Pastor should be arrested for preying on the desperate and the stupid at a time like this.

 

[4bars]

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This seems a good, practical idea.

No white text?

 

[4bars]

1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

Are his statistics. Usually I found them a bit off so I don't think so neither in just 3-4 days. But for sure US, if they keep following their current policies, will surpase 1000 and even 2000 deaths per day eventually

Italy and Spain are almost there and they have 7-8 times less population than US

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Are his statistics. Usually I found them a bit off so I don't think so neither in just 3-4 days. But for sure US, if they keep following their current policies, will surpase 1000 and even 2000 deaths per day eventually

Italy and Spain are almost there and they have 7-8 times less population than US

that's a steep curve (daily death rate). Grim

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Wibble]

If it is air borne, I doubt if it will just be coughing and sneezing.
To see what you normally can't see, people's breath, watch cold weather breathing or vaping videos.
Moist breath travel more than you may think.

Agreed but distancing will vastly reduce aerosol mediated infections. Good hygiene will help to reduce contact infections.

 

[Green_Red]

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It's incredible to be able to watch this unfold like this, however you want to look at it. It is the first time in history that the public have been able to see this kind of insight into the spread of a virus like this. Scary and fascinating in equal measures.

I wonder how much impact Spanish Flu would have had in 1918 if the world had the same kinds of communication technology we have today. Makes me wonder if this is worse or not given it seems to be the comparison being drawn all the time.

 

[entropy]

1000 deaths a day in the US? Surely not.

It'll be chaos.

It’ll actually get worse over the next few weeks. We are still yet to completely lockdown in the U.S. Just take a look at when other countries locked down.

 

[Revan]

But we had immunity to some degree the second time around in 2009. That said the Spanish Flu may have killed so many due to the poor and crowded conditions but it seems likely that the lack of immunity played a big part.

Not clear if the Spanish flu in 1918 was novel or not. There are some theories that H1N1 was with us before that (and could be a reason why it targeted less the old people).

Agree about your other point about the immunity in 2009. In fact, the flu shot is to protect against 3 different flu viruses (avian influenza viruses H1N1, H3N2, and human virus influenza type B). I don't know for sure, but I guess that 2009 version was just an ultra-contagious strain of H1N1, but the virus has been infecting us for at least a century, so we have good immunity against it be it cause of vaccines, or for having been infected in the past.

 

[Lj82]

No white text?

Why? We have been using a variant for a couple of weeks

 

[Wibble]

Not clear if the Spanish flu in 1918 was novel or not. There are some theories that H1N1 was with us before that (and could be a reason why it targeted less the old people).

Agree about your other point about the immunity in 2009. In fact, the flu shot is to protect against 3 different flu viruses (avian influenza viruses H1N1, H3N2, and human virus influenza type B). I don't know for sure, but I guess that 2009 version was just an ultra-contagious strain of H1N1, but the virus has been infecting us for at least a century, so we have good immunity against it be it cause of vaccines, or for having been infected in the past.

I'm also really hoping that this virus rapidly evolves to be less harmful as often happens.

 

[4bars]

It's incredible to be able to watch this unfold like this, however you want to look at it. It is the first time in history that the public have been able to see this kind of insight into the spread of a virus like this. Scary and fascinating in equal measures.

I wonder how much impact Spanish Flu would have had in 1918 if the world had the same kinds of communication technology we have today. Makes me wonder if this is worse or not given it seems to be the comparison being drawn all the time.

You are right. I am a bit obsessed with it since January, so much numbers and analisis